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Post by stb12 on Mar 14, 2024 2:22:22 GMT
Ceredigion Preseli
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,762
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Post by johng on May 3, 2024 13:38:29 GMT
Mark Williams (MP 2005-2017) is standing again for the Lib Dems here.
Looking at the PCC results, this has to be an absolute no hoper for him even with different turnout dynamics.
Ben Lake is definitely the strong favourite.
Ceredigion's results were... Dafydd Llywelyn (Plaid) - 7,146 Ian Harrison (Con) - 1,971 Philippa Thompson (Lab) - 1,716 Justin Griffiths (Lib Dem) - 1,307
Last place is abysmal for a party that held this seat at Westminster as recently as 2017.
Obviously, the new seat is larger than the old seat with a chunk of Pembrokeshire added. The results there are only available for the whole county, but for reference were... Philippa Thompson (Lab) 5,386. Ian Harrison (Con) - 5,168 Dafydd Llywelyn (Plaid) - 4,643 Justin Griffiths (Lib Dem) - 1,209
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Post by LDCaerdydd on May 3, 2024 13:54:26 GMT
The PCC vote share is within 1% of 2021 for the LDs in Ceredigion.
But I agree there’s no hope of him winning in 2024 (I also said he sadly had no hope in 2019).
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,897
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Post by Harry Hayfield on May 3, 2024 15:29:26 GMT
Mark Williams (MP 2005-2017) is standing again for the Lib Dems here. Looking at the PCC results, this has to be an absolute no hoper for him even with different turnout dynamics. Ben Lake is definitely the strong favourite. Ceredigion's results were... Dafydd Llywelyn (Plaid) - 7,146 Ian Harrison (Con) - 1,971 Philippa Thompson (Lab) - 1,716 Justin Griffiths (Lib Dem) - 1,307 Last place is abysmal for a party that held this seat at Westminster as recently as 2017. Obviously, the new seat is larger than the old seat with a chunk of Pembrokeshire added. The results there are only available for the whole county, but for reference were... Philippa Thompson (Lab) 5,386. Ian Harrison (Con) - 5,168 Dafydd Llywelyn (Plaid) - 4,643 Justin Griffiths (Lib Dem) - 1,209 I believe that when I tallying the boundary changes I came to the conclusion that Preseli Pembrokeshire was 45% of the electorate of Pembrokeshire, and 30% of that constituency comes into Ceredigion, so therefore based on that Preseli Pembroke estimate of Pembrokeshire PCC: Con 2325 Lab 2424 Lib Dem 544 Plaid 2089 Preseli component: Con 698 Lab 727 Lib Dem 163 Plaid 627 Ceredigion Preseli PCC election estimate: Plaid 7,773, Con 2,669, Lab 2,443, Lib Dem 1,470
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,762
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Post by johng on May 3, 2024 15:44:33 GMT
I believe that when I tallying the boundary changes I came to the conclusion that Preseli Pembrokeshire was 45% of the electorate of Pembrokeshire, and 30% of that constituency comes into Ceredigion, so therefore based on that Preseli Pembroke estimate of Pembrokeshire PCC: Con 2325 Lab 2424 Lib Dem 544 Plaid 2089 Preseli component: Con 698 Lab 727 Lib Dem 163 Plaid 627 Ceredigion Preseli PCC election estimate: Plaid 7,773, Con 2,669, Lab 2,443, Lib Dem 1,470
Not that simple though. The bit being transferred into the new seat is naturally Plaid's strongest area of the county.
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,762
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Post by johng on May 3, 2024 16:19:56 GMT
But I agree there’s no hope of him winning in 2024 (I also said he sadly had no hope in 2019).
The collapse of the Lib Dems in this seat I find to be a touch strange. He won half the vote in 2010 and had a 22 point majority over PC. Then there was no 2015 collapse. In fact he held on fairly comfortably when a majority of Lib Dems lost their seats.
In the Senedd, a similar picture can be seen. Elin Jones had relatively slim majorities in 2007, 2011 and 2016 over the Lib Dems.
Mark Williams then very narrowly lost in 2017 and it has been car crash territory since.
He was lucky to be third and not fourth in 2019. Elin Jones' Senedd majority went from 2.4k in 2016 to 12.1k in 2021 and the Lib Dems came forth. Boundary changes put the seat further out of reach.
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,897
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Post by Harry Hayfield on May 3, 2024 16:31:38 GMT
But I agree there’s no hope of him winning in 2024 (I also said he sadly had no hope in 2019).
The collapse of the Lib Dems in this seat I find to be a touch strange. He won half the vote in 2010 and had a 22 point majority over PC. Then there was no 2015 collapse. In fact he held on fairly comfortably when a majority of Lib Dems lost their seats.
In the Senedd, a similar picture can be seen. Elin Jones had relatively slim majorities in 2007, 2011 and 2016 over the Lib Dems.
Mark Williams then very narrowly lost in 2017 and it has been car crash territory since.
He was lucky to be third and not fourth in 2019. Elin Jones' Senedd majority went from 2.4k in 2016 to 12.1k in 2021 and the Lib Dems came forth. Boundary changes put the seat further out of reach.
You think you were shocked! When we candidates were told the result before the offical declaration, everyone gasped at the Lib Dem collapse.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on May 3, 2024 17:14:48 GMT
After 2017 the Lib Dem machinery slowed/stopped. It’s happened in many places, hasn’t really got going. Plus Ben Lake is a very effective MP to the standard of Elin Jones who really changed gear after 2005. I’m not sure it’s a good thing for Mark personally to stand again. But if he wants to and the local party are happy then so be it.
Harry surely if you were at the count you must have had an idea of what was going on given you’d seen the ballot boxes being opened and the votes pilling (or not) up.
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,897
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Post by Harry Hayfield on May 3, 2024 19:19:34 GMT
After 2017 the Lib Dem machinery slowed/stopped. It’s happened in many places, hasn’t really got going. Plus Ben Lake is a very effective MP to the standard of Elin Jones who really changed gear after 2005. I’m not sure it’s a good thing for Mark personally to stand again. But if he wants to and the local party are happy then so be it. Harry surely if you were at the count you must have had an idea of what was going on given you’d seen the ballot boxes being opened and the votes pilling (or not) up. I was indeed at the Senedd count for the Ceredigion constituency in 2021, however due to the Covid restrictions we were kept behind opaque plastic barriers and told that to view the count we had to watch CCTV footage of the count which meant all we saw was a single table per camera (ten tables for ten cameras) deliver a box, verification, counted, and then taken out of view of the camera.
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,762
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Post by johng on May 6, 2024 14:01:39 GMT
After 2017 the Lib Dem machinery slowed/stopped. It’s happened in many places, hasn’t really got going. Plus Ben Lake is a very effective MP to the standard of Elin Jones who really changed gear after 2005. I’m not sure it’s a good thing for Mark personally to stand again. But if he wants to and the local party are happy then so be it. Harry surely if you were at the count you must have had an idea of what was going on given you’d seen the ballot boxes being opened and the votes pilling (or not) up.
It's happened to all parties in one place or another, true.
Though you'd think with perennial candidates Mark Williams and Elizabeth Evans still active politically, a reasonable councillor base (similar to their heyday), the Lib Dems relative improvement with students providing a good activist base, and what must surely be extensive data on the electorate, there would still be some sort of meaningful active campaign base.
It's a shame about that Harry. Some councils dealt with it better than others it seems.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jun 7, 2024 17:36:12 GMT
Seven Candidates Taghrid Al-Mawed | Workers Party | Local address in Borth | Tomos Iwan Barlow | Green Party | Local address in an Aber Uni Student Hall | Jackie Jones | Labour and Co-op | Address in the Cardiff East Constituency | Ben Morgan Lake | Plaid Cymru | Local Address in Ciliau Aeron | Karl Robert Pollard | Reform UK | Address in the Carmarthen* constituency | Aled Thomas | Welsh Conservatives | Address in Pembrokeshire | Mark Williams | Welsh Liberal Democrarts | Local address in Borth |
* translation error there on Ceredigion Council's part SOPN
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Foggy
Non-Aligned
Yn Ennill Yma
Posts: 5,993
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Post by Foggy on Jun 17, 2024 23:30:16 GMT
Lots of "No Pylons" signs up in shop windows here, as featured in the seat nextdoor on last night's 10 O'Clock News. When you ask locals what their opposition is to receiving electricity, they just respond with "why can't they put the cables underground instead?"
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Post by Penddu on Jun 18, 2024 1:58:54 GMT
But...
1. The pylons are not bringing electricity to the locals. They are for delivering locally produced wind power to elsewhere, ie over the border
2. You can place cables underground. But it is more expensive and you lose more due to transmission losses. This is why usually done only for small distances
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Post by johnloony on Jun 18, 2024 1:59:12 GMT
Lots of "No Pylons" signs up in shop windows here, as featured in the seat nextdoor on last night's 10 O'Clock News. When you ask locals what their opposition is to receiving electricity, they just respond with "why can't they put the cables underground instead?" Ohyes. How horrible it is that electricity pylons spoil the view. Presumably they also want the windmills to be underground.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jun 18, 2024 6:26:57 GMT
But... 1. The pylons are not bringing electricity to the locals. They are for delivering locally produced wind power to elsewhere, ie over the border Ah yes, reasons I loath Welsh Nationalism Part 1.
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Post by nw12398 on Jun 18, 2024 6:28:09 GMT
Lots of "No Pylons" signs up in shop windows here, as featured in the seat nextdoor on last night's 10 O'Clock News. When you ask locals what their opposition is to receiving electricity, they just respond with "why can't they put the cables underground instead?" Obviously there's a big element of NIMBYism and it is not the best option in terms of cost and practicality, but it doesn't seem entirely unreasonable. Around 20% of the UK's transmission cables are underground, and the issue of spoiling landscapes (as well as weatherproofing, which is probably more relevant than average here!) is a major motive for doing it in the past.
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Post by jamesdoyle on Jun 18, 2024 12:16:23 GMT
Reminds me of a story I heard from a wind energy policy guy a while back. He was giving a talk in a village hall somewhere in the Lake District about wind power, and in the Q&A someone said they liked wind power, but they didn't want the view spoiled by wind turbines. The speaker said that the turbines would be no worse than electricity pylons, to which the questioner said,'well we don't have pylons round here because of the views,' which received nods of approval from many in the audience. The speaker's response was to point out of the window to the pylon a few tens of metres from the hall and in full view of everyone in the audience. The pylons had been there for years and everyone had just blocked them out of their perception
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Post by pembspolitic on Jun 28, 2024 12:52:06 GMT
Back visiting the Preseli part of this constituency this weekend. The only placards and posters I have seen are Plaid Cymru ones - and more than usual (with some notable Tory placards missing). Plaid Cymru seemingly winning the leafletting game here too.
Anecdotally I have heard of tory to Plaid switchers etc, and of Independent Cllrs attending Plaid events or hosting events with Ben Lake (this in a part Wales where largely ‘Conservative’ councillors run as independents).
I expect Plaid will perform much better than usual in this part of North Pembs, although unsure about Goodwick/Fishguard area. I’d expect a Plaid Cymru hold with possibly Labour in second?
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Post by Penddu on Jun 28, 2024 14:27:44 GMT
Plaid are obviously already strong in the Ceredigion part of the constituency and will be redirecting their resources to the Preseli area. Should be a comfortable Plaid hold.
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,762
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Post by johng on Jun 28, 2024 14:54:30 GMT
Plaid first won the seat when Preseli was a part of it. It's certainly been winnable for them for a while. Besides, they are going to win Ceredigion by such a margin, they don't need to do particularly well in Preseli.
Plaid winning with Labour a decent second is a good shout IMO.
Lib Dems will retain third mainly because the Tory vote will fall dramatically even though the boundary change is favourable to them.
Reform fifth, Greens sixth and Workers last.
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