Ceredigion Preseli

[stb12]

Ceredigion Preseli

[johng]

Mark Williams (MP 2005-2017) is standing again for the Lib Dems here.

Looking at the PCC results, this has to be an absolute no hoper for him even with different turnout dynamics.

Ben Lake is definitely the strong favourite.

Ceredigion's results were...
Dafydd Llywelyn (Plaid) - 7,146
Ian Harrison (Con) - 1,971
Philippa Thompson (Lab) - 1,716
Justin Griffiths (Lib Dem) - 1,307

Last place is abysmal for a party that held this seat at Westminster as recently as 2017.

Obviously, the new seat is larger than the old seat with a chunk of Pembrokeshire added.
The results there are only available for the whole county, but for reference were...
Philippa Thompson (Lab) 5,386.
Ian Harrison (Con) - 5,168
Dafydd Llywelyn (Plaid) - 4,643
Justin Griffiths (Lib Dem) - 1,209

[LDCaerdydd]

The PCC vote share is within 1% of 2021 for the LDs in Ceredigion.

But I agree there’s no hope of him winning in 2024 (I also said he sadly had no hope in 2019).

[Harry Hayfield]

May 3, 2024 13:38:29 GMT johng said:

Mark Williams (MP 2005-2017) is standing again for the Lib Dems here.

Looking at the PCC results, this has to be an absolute no hoper for him even with different turnout dynamics.

Ben Lake is definitely the strong favourite.

Ceredigion's results were...
Dafydd Llywelyn (Plaid) - 7,146
Ian Harrison (Con) - 1,971
Philippa Thompson (Lab) - 1,716
Justin Griffiths (Lib Dem) - 1,307

Last place is abysmal for a party that held this seat at Westminster as recently as 2017.

Obviously, the new seat is larger than the old seat with a chunk of Pembrokeshire added.
The results there are only available for the whole county, but for reference were...
Philippa Thompson (Lab) 5,386.
Ian Harrison (Con) - 5,168
Dafydd Llywelyn (Plaid) - 4,643
Justin Griffiths (Lib Dem) - 1,209

I believe that when I tallying the boundary changes I came to the conclusion that Preseli Pembrokeshire was 45% of the electorate of Pembrokeshire, and 30% of that constituency comes into Ceredigion, so therefore based on that

Preseli Pembroke estimate of Pembrokeshire PCC: Con 2325 Lab 2424 Lib Dem 544 Plaid 2089
Preseli component: Con 698 Lab 727 Lib Dem 163 Plaid 627

Ceredigion Preseli PCC election estimate: Plaid 7,773, Con 2,669, Lab 2,443, Lib Dem 1,470

[johng]

May 3, 2024 15:29:26 GMT Harry Hayfield said:

I believe that when I tallying the boundary changes I came to the conclusion that Preseli Pembrokeshire was 45% of the electorate of Pembrokeshire, and 30% of that constituency comes into Ceredigion, so therefore based on that

Preseli Pembroke estimate of Pembrokeshire PCC: Con 2325 Lab 2424 Lib Dem 544 Plaid 2089
Preseli component: Con 698 Lab 727 Lib Dem 163 Plaid 627

Ceredigion Preseli PCC election estimate: Plaid 7,773, Con 2,669, Lab 2,443, Lib Dem 1,470

Not that simple though. The bit being transferred into the new seat is naturally Plaid's strongest area of the county.

[johng]

May 3, 2024 13:54:26 GMT LDCaerdydd said:

But I agree there’s no hope of him winning in 2024 (I also said he sadly had no hope in 2019).

The collapse of the Lib Dems in this seat I find to be a touch strange. He won half the vote in 2010 and had a 22 point majority over PC. Then there was no 2015 collapse. In fact he held on fairly comfortably when a majority of Lib Dems lost their seats.

In the Senedd, a similar picture can be seen.  Elin Jones had relatively slim majorities in 2007, 2011 and 2016 over the Lib Dems.

Mark Williams then very narrowly lost in 2017 and it has been car crash territory since.

He was lucky to be third and not fourth in 2019.  Elin Jones' Senedd majority went from 2.4k in 2016 to 12.1k in 2021 and the Lib Dems came forth.

 

Boundary changes put the seat further out of reach.

[Harry Hayfield]

May 3, 2024 16:19:56 GMT johng said:

May 3, 2024 13:54:26 GMT LDCaerdydd said:

But I agree there’s no hope of him winning in 2024 (I also said he sadly had no hope in 2019).

The collapse of the Lib Dems in this seat I find to be a touch strange. He won half the vote in 2010 and had a 22 point majority over PC. Then there was no 2015 collapse. In fact he held on fairly comfortably when a majority of Lib Dems lost their seats.

In the Senedd, a similar picture can be seen.  Elin Jones had relatively slim majorities in 2007, 2011 and 2016 over the Lib Dems.

Mark Williams then very narrowly lost in 2017 and it has been car crash territory since.

He was lucky to be third and not fourth in 2019.  Elin Jones' Senedd majority went from 2.4k in 2016 to 12.1k in 2021 and the Lib Dems came forth.

 

Boundary changes put the seat further out of reach.

You think you were shocked! When we candidates were told the result before the offical declaration, everyone gasped at the Lib Dem collapse.

[LDCaerdydd]

After 2017 the Lib Dem machinery slowed/stopped. It’s happened in many places, hasn’t really got going. Plus Ben Lake is a very effective MP to the standard of Elin Jones who really changed gear after 2005. I’m not sure it’s a good thing for Mark personally to stand again. But if he wants to and the local party are happy then so be it.

Harry surely if you were at the count you must have had an idea of what was going on given you’d seen the ballot boxes being opened and the votes pilling (or not) up.

[Harry Hayfield]

May 3, 2024 17:14:48 GMT LDCaerdydd said:

After 2017 the Lib Dem machinery slowed/stopped. It’s happened in many places, hasn’t really got going. Plus Ben Lake is a very effective MP to the standard of Elin Jones who really changed gear after 2005. I’m not sure it’s a good thing for Mark personally to stand again. But if he wants to and the local party are happy then so be it.

Harry surely if you were at the count you must have had an idea of what was going on given you’d seen the ballot boxes being opened and the votes pilling (or not) up.

I was indeed at the Senedd count for the Ceredigion constituency in 2021, however due to the Covid restrictions we were kept behind opaque plastic barriers and told that to view the count we had to watch CCTV footage of the count which meant all we saw was a single table per camera (ten tables for ten cameras) deliver a box, verification, counted, and then taken out of view of the camera.

[johng]

May 3, 2024 17:14:48 GMT LDCaerdydd said:

After 2017 the Lib Dem machinery slowed/stopped. It’s happened in many places, hasn’t really got going. Plus Ben Lake is a very effective MP to the standard of Elin Jones who really changed gear after 2005. I’m not sure it’s a good thing for Mark personally to stand again. But if he wants to and the local party are happy then so be it.

Harry surely if you were at the count you must have had an idea of what was going on given you’d seen the ballot boxes being opened and the votes pilling (or not) up.

It's happened to all parties in one place or another, true.

Though you'd think with perennial candidates Mark Williams and Elizabeth Evans still active politically, a reasonable councillor base (similar to their heyday), the Lib Dems relative improvement with students providing a good activist base, and what must surely be extensive data on the electorate, there would still be some sort of meaningful active campaign base.

It's a shame about that Harry. Some councils dealt with it better than others it seems.

[LDCaerdydd]

Seven Candidates

Taghrid Al-Mawed	Workers Party	Local address in Borth
Tomos Iwan Barlow	Green Party	Local address in an Aber Uni Student Hall
Jackie Jones	Labour and Co-op	Address in the Cardiff East Constituency
Ben Morgan Lake	Plaid Cymru	Local Address in Ciliau Aeron
Karl Robert Pollard	Reform UK	Address in the Carmarthen* constituency
Aled Thomas	Welsh Conservatives	Address in Pembrokeshire
Mark Williams	Welsh Liberal Democrarts	Local address in Borth

* translation error there on Ceredigion Council's part

SOPN

[Foggy]

Lots of "No Pylons" signs up in shop windows here, as featured in the seat nextdoor on last night's 10 O'Clock News. When you ask locals what their opposition is to receiving electricity, they just respond with "why can't they put the cables underground instead?"

[Penddu]

But...

1. The pylons are not bringing electricity to the locals. They are for delivering locally produced wind power to elsewhere, ie over the border

2. You can place cables underground. But it is more expensive and you lose more due to transmission losses. This is why usually done only for small distances

[johnloony]

Jun 17, 2024 23:30:16 GMT Foggy said:

Lots of "No Pylons" signs up in shop windows here, as featured in the seat nextdoor on last night's 10 O'Clock News. When you ask locals what their opposition is to receiving electricity, they just respond with "why can't they put the cables underground instead?"

Ohyes. How horrible it is that electricity pylons spoil the view. Presumably they also want the windmills to be underground.

[LDCaerdydd]

Jun 18, 2024 1:58:54 GMT Penddu said:

But...

1. The pylons are not bringing electricity to the locals. They are for delivering locally produced wind power to elsewhere, ie over the border

Ah yes, reasons I loath Welsh Nationalism Part 1.

[Deleted]

Jun 17, 2024 23:30:16 GMT Foggy said:

Lots of "No Pylons" signs up in shop windows here, as featured in the seat nextdoor on last night's 10 O'Clock News. When you ask locals what their opposition is to receiving electricity, they just respond with "why can't they put the cables underground instead?"

Obviously there's a big element of NIMBYism and it is not the best option in terms of cost and practicality, but it doesn't seem entirely unreasonable. Around 20% of the UK's transmission cables are underground, and the issue of spoiling landscapes (as well as weatherproofing, which is probably more relevant than average here!) is a major motive for doing it in the past.

[jamesdoyle]

Reminds me of a story I heard from a wind energy policy guy a while back. He was giving a talk in a village hall somewhere in the Lake District about wind power, and in the Q&A someone said they liked wind power, but they didn't want the view spoiled by wind turbines. The speaker said that the turbines would be no worse than electricity pylons, to which the questioner said,'well we don't have pylons round here because of the views,' which received nods of approval from many in the audience. The speaker's response was to point out of the window to the pylon a few tens of metres from the hall and in full view of everyone in the audience. The pylons had been there for years and everyone had just blocked them out of their perception

[pembspolitic]

Back visiting the Preseli part of this constituency this weekend. The only placards and posters I have seen are Plaid Cymru ones - and more than usual (with some notable Tory placards missing). Plaid Cymru seemingly winning the leafletting game here too.

Anecdotally I have heard of tory to Plaid switchers etc, and of Independent Cllrs attending Plaid events or hosting events with Ben Lake (this in a part Wales where largely ‘Conservative’ councillors run as independents).

I expect Plaid will perform much better than usual in this part of North Pembs, although unsure about Goodwick/Fishguard area. I’d expect a Plaid Cymru hold with possibly Labour in second?

[Penddu]

Plaid are obviously already strong in the Ceredigion part of the constituency and will be redirecting their resources to the Preseli area. Should be a comfortable Plaid hold.

[johng]

Plaid first won the seat when Preseli was a part of it. It's certainly been winnable for them for a while. Besides, they are going to win Ceredigion by such a margin, they don't need to do particularly well in Preseli.


Plaid winning with Labour a decent second is a good shout IMO.

Lib Dems will retain third mainly because the Tory vote will fall dramatically even though the boundary change is favourable to them.

Reform fifth, Greens sixth and Workers last.