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Post by stb12 on Mar 14, 2024 2:22:22 GMT
Ceredigion Preseli
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johng
Labour
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Post by johng on May 3, 2024 13:38:29 GMT
Mark Williams (MP 2005-2017) is standing again for the Lib Dems here.
Looking at the PCC results, this has to be an absolute no hoper for him even with different turnout dynamics.
Ben Lake is definitely the strong favourite.
Ceredigion's results were...
Dafydd Llywelyn (Plaid) - 7,146
Ian Harrison (Con) - 1,971
Philippa Thompson (Lab) - 1,716
Justin Griffiths (Lib Dem) - 1,307
Last place is abysmal for a party that held this seat at Westminster as recently as 2017.
Obviously, the new seat is larger than the old seat with a chunk of Pembrokeshire added.
The results there are only available for the whole county, but for reference were...
Philippa Thompson (Lab) 5,386.
Ian Harrison (Con) - 5,168
Dafydd Llywelyn (Plaid) - 4,643
Justin Griffiths (Lib Dem) - 1,209
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Post by LDCaerdydd on May 3, 2024 13:54:26 GMT
The PCC vote share is within 1% of 2021 for the LDs in Ceredigion.
But I agree there’s no hope of him winning in 2024 (I also said he sadly had no hope in 2019).
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Harry Hayfield
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Post by Harry Hayfield on May 3, 2024 15:29:26 GMT
Mark Williams (MP 2005-2017) is standing again for the Lib Dems here. Looking at the PCC results, this has to be an absolute no hoper for him even with different turnout dynamics. Ben Lake is definitely the strong favourite. Ceredigion's results were... Dafydd Llywelyn (Plaid) - 7,146 Ian Harrison (Con) - 1,971 Philippa Thompson (Lab) - 1,716 Justin Griffiths (Lib Dem) - 1,307 Last place is abysmal for a party that held this seat at Westminster as recently as 2017. Obviously, the new seat is larger than the old seat with a chunk of Pembrokeshire added. The results there are only available for the whole county, but for reference were... Philippa Thompson (Lab) 5,386. Ian Harrison (Con) - 5,168 Dafydd Llywelyn (Plaid) - 4,643 Justin Griffiths (Lib Dem) - 1,209 I believe that when I tallying the boundary changes I came to the conclusion that Preseli Pembrokeshire was 45% of the electorate of Pembrokeshire, and 30% of that constituency comes into Ceredigion, so therefore based on that Preseli Pembroke estimate of Pembrokeshire PCC: Con 2325 Lab 2424 Lib Dem 544 Plaid 2089 Preseli component: Con 698 Lab 727 Lib Dem 163 Plaid 627 Ceredigion Preseli PCC election estimate: Plaid 7,773, Con 2,669, Lab 2,443, Lib Dem 1,470 |
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johng
Labour
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Post by johng on May 3, 2024 15:44:33 GMT
I believe that when I tallying the boundary changes I came to the conclusion that Preseli Pembrokeshire was 45% of the electorate of Pembrokeshire, and 30% of that constituency comes into Ceredigion, so therefore based on that Preseli Pembroke estimate of Pembrokeshire PCC: Con 2325 Lab 2424 Lib Dem 544 Plaid 2089 Preseli component: Con 698 Lab 727 Lib Dem 163 Plaid 627 Ceredigion Preseli PCC election estimate: Plaid 7,773, Con 2,669, Lab 2,443, Lib Dem 1,470
Not that simple though. The bit being transferred into the new seat is naturally Plaid's strongest area of the county.
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johng
Labour
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Post by johng on May 3, 2024 16:19:56 GMT
But I agree there’s no hope of him winning in 2024 (I also said he sadly had no hope in 2019).
The collapse of the Lib Dems in this seat I find to be a touch strange. He won half the vote in 2010 and had a 22 point majority over PC. Then there was no 2015 collapse. In fact he held on fairly comfortably when a majority of Lib Dems lost their seats.
In the Senedd, a similar picture can be seen. Elin Jones had relatively slim majorities in 2007, 2011 and 2016 over the Lib Dems.
Mark Williams then very narrowly lost in 2017 and it has been car crash territory since.
He was lucky to be third and not fourth in 2019. Elin Jones' Senedd majority went from 2.4k in 2016 to 12.1k in 2021 and the Lib Dems came forth. Boundary changes put the seat further out of reach.
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Harry Hayfield
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Post by Harry Hayfield on May 3, 2024 16:31:38 GMT
But I agree there’s no hope of him winning in 2024 (I also said he sadly had no hope in 2019).
The collapse of the Lib Dems in this seat I find to be a touch strange. He won half the vote in 2010 and had a 22 point majority over PC. Then there was no 2015 collapse. In fact he held on fairly comfortably when a majority of Lib Dems lost their seats.
In the Senedd, a similar picture can be seen. Elin Jones had relatively slim majorities in 2007, 2011 and 2016 over the Lib Dems.
Mark Williams then very narrowly lost in 2017 and it has been car crash territory since.
He was lucky to be third and not fourth in 2019. Elin Jones' Senedd majority went from 2.4k in 2016 to 12.1k in 2021 and the Lib Dems came forth. Boundary changes put the seat further out of reach.
You think you were shocked! When we candidates were told the result before the offical declaration, everyone gasped at the Lib Dem collapse. |
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Post by LDCaerdydd on May 3, 2024 17:14:48 GMT
After 2017 the Lib Dem machinery slowed/stopped. It’s happened in many places, hasn’t really got going. Plus Ben Lake is a very effective MP to the standard of Elin Jones who really changed gear after 2005. I’m not sure it’s a good thing for Mark personally to stand again. But if he wants to and the local party are happy then so be it.
Harry surely if you were at the count you must have had an idea of what was going on given you’d seen the ballot boxes being opened and the votes pilling (or not) up.
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Harry Hayfield
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Post by Harry Hayfield on May 3, 2024 19:19:34 GMT
After 2017 the Lib Dem machinery slowed/stopped. It’s happened in many places, hasn’t really got going. Plus Ben Lake is a very effective MP to the standard of Elin Jones who really changed gear after 2005. I’m not sure it’s a good thing for Mark personally to stand again. But if he wants to and the local party are happy then so be it. Harry surely if you were at the count you must have had an idea of what was going on given you’d seen the ballot boxes being opened and the votes pilling (or not) up. I was indeed at the Senedd count for the Ceredigion constituency in 2021, however due to the Covid restrictions we were kept behind opaque plastic barriers and told that to view the count we had to watch CCTV footage of the count which meant all we saw was a single table per camera (ten tables for ten cameras) deliver a box, verification, counted, and then taken out of view of the camera. |
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johng
Labour
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Post by johng on May 6, 2024 14:01:39 GMT
After 2017 the Lib Dem machinery slowed/stopped. It’s happened in many places, hasn’t really got going. Plus Ben Lake is a very effective MP to the standard of Elin Jones who really changed gear after 2005. I’m not sure it’s a good thing for Mark personally to stand again. But if he wants to and the local party are happy then so be it. Harry surely if you were at the count you must have had an idea of what was going on given you’d seen the ballot boxes being opened and the votes pilling (or not) up.
It's happened to all parties in one place or another, true.
Though you'd think with perennial candidates Mark Williams and Elizabeth Evans still active politically, a reasonable councillor base (similar to their heyday), the Lib Dems relative improvement with students providing a good activist base, and what must surely be extensive data on the electorate, there would still be some sort of meaningful active campaign base.
It's a shame about that Harry. Some councils dealt with it better than others it seems.
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