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Post by carlton43 on Jun 15, 2024 10:44:12 GMT
there is a widespread perception that Ian Blackford’s attacks on Charles Kennedy in 2015 were personal and unpleasant. I wasn’t there so cannot either confirm or deny that. Of course Kennedy died days after his defeat Yes. Most of us here know that. But what does it have to do with weld's comment which I don't understand. |
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Ports
Non-Aligned
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Post by Ports on Jun 15, 2024 11:02:07 GMT
In any case it couldn't be described as 'justice' even in a 'karma' sense as the SNP candidate is a different incumbent MP.
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
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Post by Tony Otim on Jun 15, 2024 11:22:32 GMT
Plus this seat is more of a continuation of Danny Alexander's old seat than Kennedy's
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Jun 15, 2024 13:21:55 GMT
there is a widespread perception that Ian Blackford’s attacks on Charles Kennedy in 2015 were personal and unpleasant. I wasn’t there so cannot either confirm or deny that. Of course Kennedy died days after his defeat Yes. Most of us here know that. But what does it have to do with weld's comment which I don't understand. Justice is a word that is no longer used in the dictionary definition sense. Comments using it are usually erroneous in the traditional sense of its meaning. |
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rogerg
Lib Dem
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Post by rogerg on Jun 15, 2024 13:37:11 GMT
I don't know the geography here at all - but isn't it pretty similar to Kennedy's 1997-2005 seat of Ross, Skye and Inverness West. Presumably this also has the rest of Inverness (and goes a bit further south to Fort William which was in Kennedy's post-2005 constituency when the Inverness bits came out)?
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Jun 15, 2024 14:00:27 GMT
I don't know the geography here at all - but isn't it pretty similar to Kennedy's 1997-2005 seat of Ross, Skye and Inverness West. Presumably this also has the rest of Inverness (and goes a bit further south to Fort William which was in Kennedy's post-2005 constituency when the Inverness bits came out)?  |
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Jun 15, 2024 14:06:41 GMT
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Sandy
Forum Regular
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Post by Sandy on Jun 17, 2024 12:57:11 GMT
Misleading Lib Dem bar chart in post today.
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Post by MacShimidh on Jun 23, 2024 18:06:12 GMT
Starting to think this will be a Lib Dem gain (and possibly quite a comfortable one).
Yesterday we had a visit from the Lib Dem candidate who came across as a very nice and assiduous guy. I was a bit surprised at how posh he was - like a Lib Dem version of the Tory list MSP Edward Mountain. The amount of Lib Dem literature we've received far exceeds anything I can remember, including in 2015 when both they and the SNP basically paper bombed the seat. I'm half tempted to vote for him purely because nobody has ever worked so hard to gain my vote before.
There's more SNP stakeboards up in Inverness than this time last week, but I'm still surprised at how little activity I've seen from them. They seem not to have been expecting such a concerted Lib Dem effort and are a bit powerless to do anything about it. Drew Hendry is well-liked enough in Inverness but I wouldn't say he has a particularly notable personal vote he can rely on to save him. Feels very much like time is just slipping away for him.
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birkinabe
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winning here
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Post by birkinabe on Jun 23, 2024 18:57:46 GMT
Have to say, I was certainly surprised at how many signs for Angus MacDonald and the LDs more generally I saw on Skye when I was on holiday there last fortnight, as well as on the drives there and back home. I had prior assumed they had a fairly low chance of winning this seat in July (although I'm aware that I wasn't anywhere near the main centres of population here).
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Sandy
Forum Regular
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Post by Sandy on Jun 23, 2024 19:08:24 GMT
Starting to think this will be a Lib Dem gain (and possibly quite a comfortable one). Yesterday we had a visit from the Lib Dem candidate who came across as a very nice and assiduous guy. I was a bit surprised at how posh he was - like a Lib Dem version of the Tory list MSP Edward Mountain. The amount of Lib Dem literature we've received far exceeds anything I can remember, including in 2015 when both they and the SNP basically paper bombed the seat. I'm half tempted to vote for him purely because nobody has ever worked so hard to gain my vote before. There's more SNP stakeboards up in Inverness than this time last week, but I'm still surprised at how little activity I've seen from them. They seem not to have been expecting such a concerted Lib Dem effort and are a bit powerless to do anything about it. Drew Hendry is well-liked enough in Inverness but I wouldn't say he has a particularly notable personal vote he can rely on to save him. Feels very much like time is just slipping away for him. the Lib Dems seem to have won the lamp post war by quite a considerable margin, especially around the nicer bits of town. |
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Post by carlton43 on Jun 23, 2024 22:29:31 GMT
Starting to think this will be a Lib Dem gain (and possibly quite a comfortable one). Yesterday we had a visit from the Lib Dem candidate who came across as a very nice and assiduous guy. I was a bit surprised at how posh he was - like a Lib Dem version of the Tory list MSP Edward Mountain. The amount of Lib Dem literature we've received far exceeds anything I can remember, including in 2015 when both they and the SNP basically paper bombed the seat. I'm half tempted to vote for him purely because nobody has ever worked so hard to gain my vote before. There's more SNP stakeboards up in Inverness than this time last week, but I'm still surprised at how little activity I've seen from them. They seem not to have been expecting such a concerted Lib Dem effort and are a bit powerless to do anything about it. Drew Hendry is well-liked enough in Inverness but I wouldn't say he has a particularly notable personal vote he can rely on to save him. Feels very much like time is just slipping away for him. the Lib Dems seem to have won the lamp post war by quite a considerable margin, especially around the nicer bits of town. The signage is merely evidence of one or two active teams and nothing to do with electorate support as you know. I think this will still be an SNP hold. |
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Sandy
Forum Regular
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Post by Sandy on Jun 23, 2024 22:36:03 GMT
the Lib Dems seem to have won the lamp post war by quite a considerable margin, especially around the nicer bits of town. The signage is merely evidence of one or two active teams and nothing to do with electorate support as you know. I think this will still be an SNP hold. I was commenting on the relative activity of the two parties, not on their support levels. |
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Post by ntyuk1707 on Jun 24, 2024 13:22:32 GMT
Comparing this new constituency to Kennedy's old constituency is extremely misleading. There are around 50,000 electors in the new constituency living in Inverness and Lochaber in areas which were not part of Kennedy's old constituency of Ross, Cromarty & Skye. Furthermore, there are around 35,000 electors in Ross and Cromarty which were covered by Kennedy's old constituency but not the new one. The overlap while large in geographical size accounts for only around 28,000 electors (a minority of electors from Kennedy's old seat and this new seat). |
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Khunanup
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Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
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Post by Khunanup on Jun 24, 2024 16:42:12 GMT
Comparing this new constituency to Kennedy's old constituency is extremely misleading. There are around 50,000 electors in the new constituency living in Inverness and Lochaber in areas which were not part of Kennedy's old constituency of Ross, Cromarty & Skye. Furthermore, there are around 35,000 electors in Ross and Cromarty which were covered by Kennedy's old constituency but not the new one. The overlap while large in geographical size accounts for only around 28,000 electors (a minority of electors from Kennedy's old seat and this new seat). What about in comparison to Ross, Skye & Lochaber and his prior seat Ross, Skye & Inverness West? Ross, Cromarty & Skye was abolished in 1997. |
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Post by ntyuk1707 on Jun 24, 2024 16:51:58 GMT
Comparing this new constituency to Kennedy's old constituency is extremely misleading. There are around 50,000 electors in the new constituency living in Inverness and Lochaber in areas which were not part of Kennedy's old constituency of Ross, Cromarty & Skye. Furthermore, there are around 35,000 electors in Ross and Cromarty which were covered by Kennedy's old constituency but not the new one. The overlap while large in geographical size accounts for only around 28,000 electors (a minority of electors from Kennedy's old seat and this new seat). What about in comparison to Ross, Skye & Lochaber and his prior seat Ross, Skye & Inverness West? Ross, Cromarty & Skye was abolished in 1997. For the new constituency, around ~28,000 constituents were previously in Ross, Skye & Lochaber and ~49,000 were in Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey. The old Ross, Cromarty & Skye constituency included western extremities of Inverness and towns and villages situated on the western shore of Loch Ness which were not covered by Ross, Skye & Lochaber. Ross, Skye & Lochaber instead covered the district of Lochaber which includes Fort William, Glenfinnan and Mallaig. The difference in electors is about the same. |
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Post by ntyuk1707 on Jun 24, 2024 16:57:00 GMT
Compared to the 1997-2005 Ross, Skye & Inverness West constituency (which covered more of Inverness city), the overlap is just under 50% of the new seat's total electorate (the remaining 50% of electors coming from Inverness, Lochaber and areas east of Loch Ness which were part of the Inverness East, Nairn & Lochaber constituency).
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Jun 24, 2024 18:32:53 GMT
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Post by parlconst on Jun 25, 2024 14:32:26 GMT
Had the General Election been this autumn, I would probably have updated all the analyses for the new boundaries. |
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Jun 25, 2024 17:14:57 GMT
Had the General Election been this autumn, I would probably have updated all the analyses for the new boundaries. Oh no bother, and no rush, the topic was detailed enough in words and just needed a map which is where you came in  |
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