iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on Jul 6, 2024 19:58:41 GMT
At least at Westminster, where do the Scottish LibDems go from here? They've won 6/6 of the seats they made a serious effort in, and were second nowhere else... Truly remarkable targeting. Winning Inverness is a great result not only in itself but because it forces us to think about this. Both the Argyll and Aberdeenshire results were passably decent, so hopefully one or both of those could be a new focus. |
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Post by jimboo2017 on Jul 6, 2024 20:00:17 GMT
Winchester 1997 the count resumed the following afternoon with completely new teams of counting agents and scrutineers. By the time the final declaration was made I had pretty much been awake for 36 hours, so that was probably a sensible decision. I remember staring at Ceefax on 2nd May 1997 waiting for that result to come through. We were on holiday at Sherwood Forest Center Parcs so I couldn't use the internet (which we had at home) to check on the BBC's election website. Some families were too poor to have the Internet and SkyTV |
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
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Post by john07 on Jul 6, 2024 21:20:12 GMT
I remember staring at Ceefax on 2nd May 1997 waiting for that result to come through. We were on holiday at Sherwood Forest Center Parcs so I couldn't use the internet (which we had at home) to check on the BBC's election website. Some families were too poor to have the Internet and SkyTV We were too poor to have Ceefax! |
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carolus
Lib Dem
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Post by carolus on Jul 6, 2024 21:39:08 GMT
At least at Westminster, where do the Scottish LibDems go from here? They've won 6/6 of the seats they made a serious effort in, and were second nowhere else... Truly remarkable targeting. Winning Inverness is a great result not only in itself but because it forces us to think about this. Both the Argyll and Aberdeenshire results were passably decent, so hopefully one or both of those could be a new focus. Five of our six now have comfortable majorities, though of course an SNP revival could see that change substantially. So hopefully that gives us a decent chance at making progress elsewhere. Of the other results I think there are only three worth thinking about (i.e. where we got >10%), one of which was a third place, and two of which were fourth, which are precisely as you say.
Argyll, Bute & South Lochaber - 16.4%, 4th, 18.3% behind SNP Gordon & Buchan - 16.7%, 3rd, 16.2% behind Con West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine - 13%, 4th, 23.6% behind Con
If you forced me to pick just one then the most plausible seems to be G&B, it also saw a reasonable (5%) increase in our vote, and we still have a good contingent of councillors in Aberdeenshire. But realistically I wouldn't give up on Argyll either.
All that said, I suppose the next full scale electoral test in Scotland will be the 2026 Holyrood elections, which will be on somewhat different boundaries and with different prospects - perhaps a second seat in Edinburgh will be in play, and multiple highland constituencies.
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Sandy
Forum Regular
Posts: 3,188
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Post by Sandy on Jul 6, 2024 21:58:43 GMT
Winning Inverness is a great result not only in itself but because it forces us to think about this. Both the Argyll and Aberdeenshire results were passably decent, so hopefully one or both of those could be a new focus. Five of our six now have comfortable majorities, though of course an SNP revival could see that change substantially. So hopefully that gives us a decent chance at making progress elsewhere. Of the other results I think there are only three worth thinking about (i.e. where we got >10%), one of which was a third place, and two of which were fourth, which are precisely as you say.
Argyll, Bute & South Lochaber - 16.4%, 4th, 18.3% behind SNP Gordon & Buchan - 16.7%, 3rd, 16.2% behind Con West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine - 13%, 4th, 23.6% behind Con
If you forced me to pick just one then the most plausible seems to be G&B, it also saw a reasonable (5%) increase in our vote, and we still have a good contingent of councillors in Aberdeenshire. But realistically I wouldn't give up on Argyll either.
All that said, I suppose the next full scale electoral test in Scotland will be the 2026 Holyrood elections, which will be on somewhat different boundaries and with different prospects - perhaps a second seat in Edinburgh will be in play, and multiple highland constituencies.
Which Edinburgh constituency? Southern? Central? That’s a very, very long shot, unless you’re talking over multiple cycles. I think the only feasible LD target in the Highlands at the Scottish Parliament is Caithness, Sutherland and Ross. Maree Todd is an easy target but Kate Forbes and Fergus Ewing would be very difficult to dislodge. |
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carolus
Lib Dem
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Post by carolus on Jul 6, 2024 22:11:41 GMT
Five of our six now have comfortable majorities, though of course an SNP revival could see that change substantially. So hopefully that gives us a decent chance at making progress elsewhere. Of the other results I think there are only three worth thinking about (i.e. where we got >10%), one of which was a third place, and two of which were fourth, which are precisely as you say.
Argyll, Bute & South Lochaber - 16.4%, 4th, 18.3% behind SNP Gordon & Buchan - 16.7%, 3rd, 16.2% behind Con West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine - 13%, 4th, 23.6% behind Con
If you forced me to pick just one then the most plausible seems to be G&B, it also saw a reasonable (5%) increase in our vote, and we still have a good contingent of councillors in Aberdeenshire. But realistically I wouldn't give up on Argyll either.
All that said, I suppose the next full scale electoral test in Scotland will be the 2026 Holyrood elections, which will be on somewhat different boundaries and with different prospects - perhaps a second seat in Edinburgh will be in play, and multiple highland constituencies.
Which Edinburgh constituency? Southern? Central? That’s a very, very long shot, unless you’re talking over multiple cycles. I think the only feasible LD target in the Highlands at the Scottish Parliament is Caithness, Sutherland and Ross. Maree Todd is an easy target but Kate Forbes and Fergus Ewing would be very difficult to dislodge. I'd had in mind Northern based on some half-remember ramping from ACH a few months ago, but perhaps it won't amount to much. And, well, you might be right about the Highlands, but I'd think there's at least the possibility for the result here to change things. Of course it's all two years away anyway, and I'm just observing from a distance, so I'll certainly bow to superior local knowledge. |
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batman
Labour
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Post by batman on Jul 6, 2024 22:18:17 GMT
Which Edinburgh constituency? Southern? Central? That’s a very, very long shot, unless you’re talking over multiple cycles. I think the only feasible LD target in the Highlands at the Scottish Parliament is Caithness, Sutherland and Ross. Maree Todd is an easy target but Kate Forbes and Fergus Ewing would be very difficult to dislodge. I'd had in mind Northern based on some half-remember ramping from ACH a few months ago, but perhaps it won't amount to much. And, well, you might be right about the Highlands, but I'd think there's at least the possibility for the result here to change things. Of course it's all two years away anyway, and I'm just observing from a distance, so I'll certainly bow to superior local knowledge. I was delayed by a (I think) Czech lorry owned by a company called Carolus driving in London today. However I will not blame you for this. |
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,426
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Post by iain on Jul 6, 2024 22:39:27 GMT
Apparently the Lib Dems lead by around 1,500 votes. If this is accurate then it's likely the Liberal Democrats polled ahead in Wester Ross, Lochaber and three out of five wards in Inverness, with SNP leading in Skye, Aird & Loch Ness and the remaining two out of five Inverness wards. I certainly understand the rationale here, but I note that the Lib Dems’ previous greatest area of strength was in the Isle of Skye. Given how Labour have recovered most strongly in their previous areas of strength, including in areas which voted strong Yes, it’s possible that the result in this constituency could well reflect pre-2014 voting patterns more strongly than you suggest. I’m not sure you’re right or wrong, but food for thought IMO! |
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Sandy
Forum Regular
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Post by Sandy on Jul 6, 2024 23:46:25 GMT
Apparently the Lib Dems lead by around 1,500 votes. If this is accurate then it's likely the Liberal Democrats polled ahead in Wester Ross, Lochaber and three out of five wards in Inverness, with SNP leading in Skye, Aird & Loch Ness and the remaining two out of five Inverness wards. I think it’s pretty safe to assume the SNP won Inverness Central (contains the shithole South Kessock), which other one, Millburn? |
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Jack
Reform Party
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Post by Jack on Jul 6, 2024 23:55:19 GMT
The number of votes for the SNP is triggering my symmetry OCD. |
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steve
Non-Aligned
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Post by steve on Jul 7, 2024 2:56:40 GMT
Some families were too poor to have the Internet and SkyTV We were too poor to have Ceefax! I feel a Monty Python sketch coming on here. 🙂 |
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Post by iainbhx on Jul 7, 2024 6:37:52 GMT
If this is accurate then it's likely the Liberal Democrats polled ahead in Wester Ross, Lochaber and three out of five wards in Inverness, with SNP leading in Skye, Aird & Loch Ness and the remaining two out of five Inverness wards. I certainly understand the rationale here, but I note that the Lib Dems’ previous greatest area of strength was in the Isle of Skye. Given how Labour have recovered most strongly in their previous areas of strength, including in areas which voted strong Yes, it’s possible that the result in this constituency could well reflect pre-2014 voting patterns more strongly than you suggest. I’m not sure you’re right or wrong, but food for thought IMO! I would never dare argue with ntyuk1707 on Scottish electoral demographics, he's the local domain expert and a massive asset to have on board here. |
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Post by No Offence Alan on Jul 7, 2024 7:02:58 GMT
The number of votes for the SNP is triggering my symmetry OCD. So not a good time to mention that the SNP got exactly 30,000 votes in Kilmarnock and Loudoun in 2015? |
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Post by ntyuk1707 on Jul 7, 2024 7:05:47 GMT
If this is accurate then it's likely the Liberal Democrats polled ahead in Wester Ross, Lochaber and three out of five wards in Inverness, with SNP leading in Skye, Aird & Loch Ness and the remaining two out of five Inverness wards. I think it’s pretty safe to assume the SNP won Inverness Central (contains the shithole South Kessock), which other one, Millburn? SNP: Inverness Central, Inverness South LIB: Inverness Ness-side, Inverness West, Inverness Millburn |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Jul 7, 2024 11:48:55 GMT
Winning Inverness is a great result not only in itself but because it forces us to think about this. Both the Argyll and Aberdeenshire results were passably decent, so hopefully one or both of those could be a new focus. Five of our six now have comfortable majorities, though of course an SNP revival could see that change substantially. So hopefully that gives us a decent chance at making progress elsewhere. Of the other results I think there are only three worth thinking about (i.e. where we got >10%), one of which was a third place, and two of which were fourth, which are precisely as you say. Argyll, Bute & South Lochaber - 16.4%, 4th, 18.3% behind SNP Gordon & Buchan - 16.7%, 3rd, 16.2% behind Con West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine - 13%, 4th, 23.6% behind Con If you forced me to pick just one then the most plausible seems to be G&B, it also saw a reasonable (5%) increase in our vote, and we still have a good contingent of councillors in Aberdeenshire. But realistically I wouldn't give up on Argyll either.
All that said, I suppose the next full scale electoral test in Scotland will be the 2026 Holyrood elections, which will be on somewhat different boundaries and with different prospects - perhaps a second seat in Edinburgh will be in play, and multiple highland constituencies.
As far as Edinburgh goes, apart from West, you went backwards and finished behind us in all the other seats here this week. 2026 will be Lab vs SNP for control of Holyrood and Labour have a much stronger argument to be the challengers in all the other seats, so can't see it this electoral cycle. On a wider point, I'd suggest that this is not just a Scottish issue, is it. You've done so phenomenally well hitting your targets with very few misses this week, whilst falling back elsewhere that there's not really all that many seats UK-wide were you're left as clear challengers. (I haven't checked figures, but I suspect from impressions that there are possibly more seats that Greens are second in now than Lib Dems are second in). In a way that's a nice problem to have as you're sitting with a larger parliamentary group than at any time in the last 100+ years, but will take a lot of work to develop new targets... |
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Post by No Offence Alan on Jul 7, 2024 11:58:39 GMT
Five of our six now have comfortable majorities, though of course an SNP revival could see that change substantially. So hopefully that gives us a decent chance at making progress elsewhere. Of the other results I think there are only three worth thinking about (i.e. where we got >10%), one of which was a third place, and two of which were fourth, which are precisely as you say. Argyll, Bute & South Lochaber - 16.4%, 4th, 18.3% behind SNP Gordon & Buchan - 16.7%, 3rd, 16.2% behind Con West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine - 13%, 4th, 23.6% behind Con If you forced me to pick just one then the most plausible seems to be G&B, it also saw a reasonable (5%) increase in our vote, and we still have a good contingent of councillors in Aberdeenshire. But realistically I wouldn't give up on Argyll either.
All that said, I suppose the next full scale electoral test in Scotland will be the 2026 Holyrood elections, which will be on somewhat different boundaries and with different prospects - perhaps a second seat in Edinburgh will be in play, and multiple highland constituencies.
As far as Edinburgh goes, apart from West, you went backwards and finished behind us in all the other seats here this week. 2026 will be Lab vs SNP for control of Holyrood and Labour have a much stronger argument to be the challengers in all the other seats, so can't see it this electoral cycle. On a wider point, I'd suggest that this is not just a Scottish issue, is it. You've done so phenomenally well hitting your targets with very few misses this week, whilst falling back elsewhere that there's not really all that many seats UK-wide were you're left as clear challengers. (I haven't checked figures, but I suspect from impressions that there are possibly more seats that Greens are second in now than Lib Dems are second in). In a way that's a nice problem to have as you're sitting with a larger parliamentary group than at any time in the last 100+ years, but will take a lot of work to develop new targets... The "falling back" in e.g. Edinburgh is simply tactical voting to help Labour beat the SNP. |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Jul 7, 2024 12:00:16 GMT
As far as Edinburgh goes, apart from West, you went backwards and finished behind us in all the other seats here this week. 2026 will be Lab vs SNP for control of Holyrood and Labour have a much stronger argument to be the challengers in all the other seats, so can't see it this electoral cycle. On a wider point, I'd suggest that this is not just a Scottish issue, is it. You've done so phenomenally well hitting your targets with very few misses this week, whilst falling back elsewhere that there's not really all that many seats UK-wide were you're left as clear challengers. (I haven't checked figures, but I suspect from impressions that there are possibly more seats that Greens are second in now than Lib Dems are second in). In a way that's a nice problem to have as you're sitting with a larger parliamentary group than at any time in the last 100+ years, but will take a lot of work to develop new targets... The "falling back" in e.g. Edinburgh is simply tactical voting to help Labour beat the SNP. And what do you think will be different in 2026? |
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Post by No Offence Alan on Jul 7, 2024 12:03:01 GMT
Five of our six now have comfortable majorities, though of course an SNP revival could see that change substantially. So hopefully that gives us a decent chance at making progress elsewhere. Of the other results I think there are only three worth thinking about (i.e. where we got >10%), one of which was a third place, and two of which were fourth, which are precisely as you say. Argyll, Bute & South Lochaber - 16.4%, 4th, 18.3% behind SNP Gordon & Buchan - 16.7%, 3rd, 16.2% behind Con West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine - 13%, 4th, 23.6% behind Con If you forced me to pick just one then the most plausible seems to be G&B, it also saw a reasonable (5%) increase in our vote, and we still have a good contingent of councillors in Aberdeenshire. But realistically I wouldn't give up on Argyll either.
All that said, I suppose the next full scale electoral test in Scotland will be the 2026 Holyrood elections, which will be on somewhat different boundaries and with different prospects - perhaps a second seat in Edinburgh will be in play, and multiple highland constituencies.
Which Edinburgh constituency? Southern? Central? That’s a very, very long shot, unless you’re talking over multiple cycles. I think the only feasible LD target in the Highlands at the Scottish Parliament is Caithness, Sutherland and Ross. Maree Todd is an easy target but Kate Forbes and Fergus Ewing would be very difficult to dislodge. We "won" the new Edinburgh Northern seat in the locals, all be it on about 28%. |
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carolus
Lib Dem
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Post by carolus on Jul 7, 2024 12:22:25 GMT
As far as Edinburgh goes, apart from West, you went backwards and finished behind us in all the other seats here this week. 2026 will be Lab vs SNP for control of Holyrood and Labour have a much stronger argument to be the challengers in all the other seats, so can't see it this electoral cycle. Well, I'm certainly making no claims to being an Edinburgh expert, but the revised Edinburgh Northern looks clearly more interesting than either the existing seat or the Westminster equivalent. So perhaps "in play" was overstating it, but it's not like we'd have much else going on, and there's probably a limit to how many activists you can ship to Caithness. Sure, but as you say, it's a nice problem to have - I'd much rather have 72 MPs and 27 second places than the other way around. In terms of actual swing needed, because there are so many split seats, I'm not actually sure the list is much shorter than last time (11 <5% compared to 16, 37 <10% vs 30 last time), though of course it's harder from third than second. |
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Foggy
Non-Aligned
Yn Ennill Yma
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Post by Foggy on Jul 8, 2024 4:05:18 GMT
We were too poor to have Ceefax! I feel a Monty Python sketch coming on here. 🙂 "We used to rent black & white telly fro' pawn shop an' 'ave to gi' it back before it 'ad even warmed up!" But I do seriously recall access to Teletext as a treat once a fortnight when we'd visit my grandparents. I think we'd just about got Ceefax on the main (living room) TV only at our place in time for the 1997 election. Was very much not an early adopter of the information superhighway unlike some on here either, first getting online at home in August of 2001. |
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