Aberdeen South

[stb12]

Jul 12, 2024 13:22:10 GMT Clark said:

The poorer more working class areas were always areas of Labour strength pre 2015. This is Torry, Kincorth, Garthdee and Nigg (a boundary change now takes in a similar inner city area too). And whilst these areas will have reverted back to Labour to an extent this year, it's still doubtful whether they would've actually carried them although it would've been close. The shift from SNP to Labour in comparable central belt areas was much heavier and of course, Flynn was always going to suffer less of a swing against him than your average SNP incumbent.

I actually know some people who are not really interested in Politics but will just vote SNP anyway for the simple reason that they're patriotic and love Scotland so will just vote for 'Scotland's party'! I feel this sort of attitude in Aberdeen is stronger than elsewhere in Scotland. Dundee would probably be similar.

Although Aberdeen did have a pretty comfortable No Vote at the referendum while Dundee had the highest support for it and of course Glasgow narrowly voted Yes

[graham]

Jul 12, 2024 13:22:10 GMT Clark said:

I actually know some people who are not really interested in Politics but will just vote SNP anyway for the simple reason that they're patriotic and love Scotland so will just vote for 'Scotland's party'! I feel this sort of attitude in Aberdeen is stronger than elsewhere in Scotland. Dundee would probably be similar.

Why would that be more true today than appeared to be the case at the time of the earlier SNP surge during the 1970s?

[stb12]

Jul 12, 2024 17:44:33 GMT graham said:

Jul 12, 2024 13:22:10 GMT Clark said:

I actually know some people who are not really interested in Politics but will just vote SNP anyway for the simple reason that they're patriotic and love Scotland so will just vote for 'Scotland's party'! I feel this sort of attitude in Aberdeen is stronger than elsewhere in Scotland. Dundee would probably be similar.

Why would that be more true today than appeared to be the case at the time of the earlier SNP surge during the 1970s?

There was no Scottish Parliament then and there hadn’t been a referendum

[graham]

Jul 12, 2024 17:54:15 GMT stb12 said:

Jul 12, 2024 17:44:33 GMT graham said:

Why would that be more true today than appeared to be the case at the time of the earlier SNP surge during the 1970s?

There was no Scottish Parliament then and there hadn’t been a referendum

Of course - but that applies to the central belt seats too!

[Clark]

All valid points guys. I guess the SNP strength in Aberdeen will just have to remain a mystery!

[stb12]

Salmond did build up some pretty substantial SNP strength in the North East during his two leadership spells, even is his area was Aberdeenshire rather than Aberdeen

[ntyuk1707]

Jul 12, 2024 20:08:34 GMT Clark said:

All valid points guys. I guess the SNP strength in Aberdeen will just have to remain a mystery!

It's not really a mystery though is it.

The SNP performed close to the 2014 referendum Yes vote in many seats where they were competing directly against the Conservatives including Perth & Kinross-shire and Angus & Perthshire Glens.

In Aberdeen North, the SNP's vote share fell in line with many other seats in the Scottish Central Belt but this did not occur to the same extent in Aberdeen South. 

Therefore, beyond any arguments about oil and gas, the main reason for the SNP's relatively good performance here must be down to local factors (ie. Tauqeer Malik's viral comments in support of the 2019 Conservative candidate here) and/or a belief among the electorate that the constituency was a Conservative/SNP marginal leading to tactical voting which ultimately disadvantaged the Labour Party more so than anyone else.

Had the swing in Aberdeen North been replicated in Aberdeen South, Labour would have won the seat. 

Why did electors here believe the seat to be a Conservative v SNP marginal? Perhaps because the Conservatives performed well here in 2021, doubts that Labour would be competitive due to their position on oil and gas or a failure by the local Labour party to effectively deliver their message here. Some voters might have stuck with the Tories instead of switching to Labour due to oil and gas. 

Tauqeer Malik's comment is what ultimately led me to believe this seat was leaning SNP prior to the election. There's no question he lost the party some votes.

[ntyuk1707]

I will once again stress, this is not an Aberdeen/north east effect. The SNP's strongest vote shares came in Perthshire and Angus which rejected Scottish independence in 2014 quite decisively.

The reason the SNP vote held up better in some areas was because of anti-Conservative tactical voting.

Aberdeen South was previously a Conservative-held seat, and parts of Aberdeen North also came from the previously Conservative-held Gordon constituency.

Despite this, the SNP vote dropped -18.4% in Aberdeen North which was a bigger drop than the national average. 

That means oil and gas had a negligible impact here for the SNP, with the primary beneficiaries likely being the Conservatives whose vote share held up better than the national average in the city.

As I set out above, confused tactical voting and Tauqeer Malik's mishap are the main reasons the SNP held on here, and Labour's position on oil and gas probably also cost them some votes to the Conservatives.

[ntyuk1707]

Jul 12, 2024 20:18:24 GMT stb12 said:

Salmond did build up some pretty substantial SNP strength in the North East during his two leadership spells, even is his area was Aberdeenshire rather than Aberdeen

Yes winning 30% of the vote in Aberdeenshire is a real landslide result for the SNP.

So comparable to the Salmond glory days when they used to win upwards of 65% in the shire... 

EDIT: apologies if this was a bit cheeky, no disrespect meant! 

[graham]

Jul 13, 2024 12:19:47 GMT ntyuk1707 said:

I will once again stress, this is not an Aberdeen/north east effect. The SNP's strongest vote shares came in Perthshire and Angus which rejected Scottish independence in 2014 quite decisively.

The reason the SNP vote held up better in some areas was because of anti-Conservative tactical voting.

Aberdeen South was previously a Conservative-held seat, and parts of Aberdeen North also came from the previously Conservative-held Gordon constituency.

Despite this, the SNP vote dropped -18.4% in Aberdeen North which was a bigger drop than the national average. 

That means oil and gas had a negligible impact here for the SNP, with the primary beneficiaries likely being the Conservatives whose vote share held up better than the national average in the city.

As I set out above, confused tactical voting and Tauqeer Malik's mishap are the main reasons the SNP held on here, and Labour's position on oil and gas probably also cost them some votes to the Conservatives.

That raises the question as to why Aberdeen North has not reverted to being the Labour citadel pre- Referendum in line with the Central Belt ? Labour remains well short of what it polled in 2010.

[ntyuk1707]

Jul 13, 2024 13:35:07 GMT graham said:

Jul 13, 2024 12:19:47 GMT ntyuk1707 said:

I will once again stress, this is not an Aberdeen/north east effect. The SNP's strongest vote shares came in Perthshire and Angus which rejected Scottish independence in 2014 quite decisively.

The reason the SNP vote held up better in some areas was because of anti-Conservative tactical voting.

Aberdeen South was previously a Conservative-held seat, and parts of Aberdeen North also came from the previously Conservative-held Gordon constituency.

Despite this, the SNP vote dropped -18.4% in Aberdeen North which was a bigger drop than the national average. 

That means oil and gas had a negligible impact here for the SNP, with the primary beneficiaries likely being the Conservatives whose vote share held up better than the national average in the city.

As I set out above, confused tactical voting and Tauqeer Malik's mishap are the main reasons the SNP held on here, and Labour's position on oil and gas probably also cost them some votes to the Conservatives.

That raises the question as to why Aberdeen North has not reverted to being the Labour citadel pre- Referendum in line with the Central Belt ? Labour remains well short of what it polled in 2010.

Of the 41 seats where Labour and the SNP occupied first and second place at the 2024 general election, Aberdeen North had the sixth highest Reform+Conservative vote and the fifth highest SNP vote. Aberdeen South had the highest Reform+Conservative vote.

Some of the outer suburbs in Aberdeen North have become fairly entrenched battlegrounds between the Conservatives and the SNP. Oil and gas issues probably played a role in depressing Labour's vote here, allowing the Conservatives to retain more of their 2019 vote share.

Also bear in mind that Aberdeen North was the SNP's safest seat in Scotland with parts of it having previously been held by the Conservatives. The SNP also built up a fairly strong base of support in the constituency since winning the coterminous Aberdeen North constituency in the Scottish Parliament in 2003. In fact, every constituency won by the SNP in the 2003 Scottish Parliamentary election was also won in 2024.


So it is not comparable to most of the Central Belt where Labour have been the established challengers to the SNP for many years BUT it's unfair to characterise Aberdeen as being significantly more SNP leaning than the central belt. The issue is that Labour was not popular enough, the unionist vote was split and the SNP won the seat with only 34.5% of the vote.

Labour did not command the vote share it held in Scotland in 2010 and in many parts of the central belt the party is well down on their 2010 vote share. Look, for example, at Glasgow North East where previously the party won 68% to the SNP's 14%, at the latest general election they won 46% to the SNP's 32%.

[ntyuk1707]

Based on trends from comparable seats (Ayr, Stirling, East Renfrewshire, Edinburgh South West) oil and gas issues cost Labour at least 5% of it's vote share to the Conservatives in Aberdeen South.

The remaining part of Stephen Flynn's majority was secured by Malik's incompetence as a Labour candidate.

This was a loss of Labour's own making.

[stb12]

Jul 13, 2024 12:22:27 GMT ntyuk1707 said:

Jul 12, 2024 20:18:24 GMT stb12 said:

Salmond did build up some pretty substantial SNP strength in the North East during his two leadership spells, even is his area was Aberdeenshire rather than Aberdeen

Yes winning 30% of the vote in Aberdeenshire is a real landslide result for the SNP.

So comparable to the Salmond glory days when they used to win upwards of 65% in the shire... 

EDIT: apologies if this was a bit cheeky, no disrespect meant! 

No problem, wasn’t even indicating that’s the main reason just that there may be some small residual effect

[graham]

Jul 13, 2024 14:19:50 GMT ntyuk1707 said:

Jul 13, 2024 13:35:07 GMT graham said:

That raises the question as to why Aberdeen North has not reverted to being the Labour citadel pre- Referendum in line with the Central Belt ? Labour remains well short of what it polled in 2010.

Of the 41 seats where Labour and the SNP occupied first and second place at the 2024 general election, Aberdeen North had the sixth highest Reform+Conservative vote and the fifth highest SNP vote. Aberdeen South had the highest Reform+Conservative vote.

Some of the outer suburbs in Aberdeen North have become fairly entrenched battlegrounds between the Conservatives and the SNP. Oil and gas issues probably played a role in depressing Labour's vote here, allowing the Conservatives to retain more of their 2019 vote share.

Also bear in mind that Aberdeen North was the SNP's safest seat in Scotland with parts of it having previously been held by the Conservatives. The SNP also built up a fairly strong base of support in the constituency since winning the coterminous Aberdeen North constituency in the Scottish Parliament in 2003. In fact, every constituency won by the SNP in the 2003 Scottish Parliamentary election was also won in 2024.


So it is not comparable to most of the Central Belt where Labour have been the established challengers to the SNP for many years BUT it's unfair to characterise Aberdeen as being significantly more SNP leaning than the central belt. The issue is that Labour was not popular enough, the unionist vote was split and the SNP won the seat with only 34.5% of the vote.

Labour did not command the vote share it held in Scotland in 2010 and in many parts of the central belt the party is well down on their 2010 vote share. Look, for example, at Glasgow North East where previously the party won 68% to the SNP's 14%, at the latest general election they won 46% to the SNP's 32%.

2010 might not have been the best year to focus on my part, but I believe Labour's lead over the SNP across Scotland this year was fairly similar to the October 1974 result - the SNP's best performance until 2015..

[Deleted]

I also think the oil boom has declined significantly since the Tories gained this from Labour against the grain in 1992. I don't want to Mae comparisons to England, but uber wealthy Remain voting suburbia like Peterculter, Bieldside, Milltimber, Cults, Queen's Cross, Hazelhead etc would probably vote Lib Dem or even Labour in England in GE2024. Remember that Labour held onto Sheffield Hallam quite easily and won Leeds North West (a notionallyTory seat). We also saw the Tories lose York Outer which is a fairly prosperous area with parts of it like Haxby probably not a million miles away from areas of Aberdeen South demographically and socioeconomically.

The other thing as someone who's stayed here, is that the affluenza is quite limited compared to the more humdrum areas. You can walk from Garthdee to he city centre (George Street) in about 40 minutes and nowhere feels especially well-healed. It also takes quite a while travelling on the road out to the south west before you pass through the rich villages I've mentioned before. Aberdeen South seems, broadly speaking a left-facing seat the the Tories have only won twice since 1983 - 1992 and 2017 - hardly indicating a berth that will moe rightward next time. Labour and the Tories need a non-aggression pact - Tories soft peddle Aberdeen while eLabour doesn't put too much effort in around Fraserburgh, Peterhead and Elgin.

[ntyuk1707]

Jul 13, 2024 15:30:44 GMT @weld said:

I also think the oil boom has declined significantly since the Tories gained this from Labour against the grain in 1992. I don't want to Mae comparisons to England, but uber wealthy Remain voting suburbia like Peterculter, Bieldside, Milltimber, Cults, Queen's Cross, Hazelhead etc would probably vote Lib Dem or even Labour in England in GE2024. Remember that Labour held onto Sheffield Hallam quite easily and won Leeds North West (a notionallyTory seat). We also saw the Tories lose York Outer which is a fairly prosperous area with parts of it like Haxby probably not a million miles away from areas of Aberdeen South demographically and socioeconomically.

The other thing as someone who's stayed here, is that the affluenza is quite limited compared to the more humdrum areas. You can walk from Garthdee to he city centre (George Street) in about 40 minutes and nowhere feels especially well-healed. It also takes quite a while travelling on the road out to the south west before you pass through the rich villages I've mentioned before. Aberdeen South seems, broadly speaking a left-facing seat the the Tories have only won twice since 1983 - 1992 and 2017 - hardly indicating a berth that will moe rightward next time. Labour and the Tories need a non-aggression pact - Tories soft peddle Aberdeen while eLabour doesn't put too much effort in around Fraserburgh, Peterhead and Elgin.

Have you actually visited this constituency and done the 40 minute walk from Garthdee to George Street?

Because most of that walk would take you through indisputably affluent neighbourhoods like Ruthrieston, Broomhill and the West End of Aberdeen, where the Conservatives may have polled ahead of other parties at the general election. Even going via Ferryhill, that area is quite prosperous and likely went Conservative at the general election! 

I would suggest having a read of my profile of this seat. Certainly, it is fair to say this seat has significant socioeconomic contrasts as it covers some of Scotland's wealthiest neighbourhoods as well as rather more deprived areas including Garthdee, Kincorth, Torry and inner city areas off of George Street, King Street and Aberdeen's harbour. In many ways, the seat has similar demographics to Edinburgh South West with a near-equal split of very affluent areas and more deprived areas.

[Clark]

Jul 13, 2024 15:30:44 GMT @weld said:

I also think the oil boom has declined significantly since the Tories gained this from Labour against the grain in 1992. I don't want to Mae comparisons to England, but uber wealthy Remain voting suburbia like Peterculter, Bieldside, Milltimber, Cults, Queen's Cross, Hazelhead etc would probably vote Lib Dem or even Labour in England in GE2024. Remember that Labour held onto Sheffield Hallam quite easily and won Leeds North West (a notionallyTory seat). We also saw the Tories lose York Outer which is a fairly prosperous area with parts of it like Haxby probably not a million miles away from areas of Aberdeen South demographically and socioeconomically.

The other thing as someone who's stayed here, is that the affluenza is quite limited compared to the more humdrum areas. You can walk from Garthdee to he city centre (George Street) in about 40 minutes and nowhere feels especially well-healed. It also takes quite a while travelling on the road out to the south west before you pass through the rich villages I've mentioned before. Aberdeen South seems, broadly speaking a left-facing seat the the Tories have only won twice since 1983 - 1992 and 2017 - hardly indicating a berth that will moe rightward next time. Labour and the Tories need a non-aggression pact - Tories soft peddle Aberdeen while eLabour doesn't put too much effort in around Fraserburgh, Peterhead and Elgin.

Oil is still a huge part of the economy here and will remain so into the middle part of this century.  Decommissioning will follow once all exploration is exhausted so it's here to stay for a considerable time yet.  I never knew you are familiar with the city - the Tories gained it in 1992 probably because Thatcher was no longer PM - she was not popular in Scotland for the most part.

There is a lot of wealth here and the road network between Garthdee and George St is indeed modest in terms of being well healed as you put it (although Broomhill road is reasonably affluent).  However, although this is a mixed constituency, the middle class areas do outnumber the less well to do areas so your looking at the Tories being favorites here in an even year. There are thousands of large granite houses here (detached and/0r semi detached) worth between £300k - >£1m and most inhabitants of these will usually vote Tory. 

Google streetview Rubislaw Den North and South, Gladstone Place, Carlton Place, Hamilton Place, Queens Road and dozens more.