Clark
Forum Regular
Posts: 744
Member is Online
|
Post by Clark on Jun 30, 2024 20:19:39 GMT
How has the trouble maker Sophie Molly been received in the area? Don't know anything about her to be honest. I suspect she'll just be another 3 figure vote Independent. Meanwhile, I was in Lower Deeside ward again this evening and ventured into Taqeer Malik's home town of Peterculter (it's surprisingly downmarket in many areas) and as expected, saw numerous garden stakes - probably about 11 or 12 in all. It sounds impressive and he's clearly popular locally but I feel this is more an isolated area of support and Mr Flynn is still going to be very difficult to dislodge. The boundary change in this seat is a big and significant boost for the SNP and Flynn should be grateful for it. |
|
|
|
Post by irish observer on Jul 1, 2024 11:15:42 GMT
Call for SNP.
|
|
|
|
Post by ntyuk1707 on Jul 5, 2024 0:26:00 GMT
BBC have said rumours of a Labour gain here.
|
|
Clark
Forum Regular
Posts: 744
Member is Online
|
Post by Clark on Jul 5, 2024 13:00:36 GMT
An almost even split between Labour at the Conservatives meant Flynn ended up with a relatively easy ride.
A lot of misguided tactical votes cast here although with Labour on the up and Tories falling an even squeeze was always likely
|
|
|
|
Post by aberdeensouth on Jul 7, 2024 16:01:22 GMT
Certainly a disappointing result here. The Conservative vote held up reasonably well. I'd wager that a decent proportion of the Labour vote here was tactical and so I think going forward this is one for the Conservatives to target, rather than Labour, from a tactical voting point of view. The Holyrood equivalent should be a top target in 2026.
|
|
stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,366 
|
Post by stb12 on Jul 8, 2024 12:49:54 GMT
Certainly a disappointing result here. The Conservative vote held up reasonably well. I'd wager that a decent proportion of the Labour vote here was tactical and so I think going forward this is one for the Conservatives to target, rather than Labour, from a tactical voting point of view. The Holyrood equivalent should be a top target in 2026. Labour came from pretty poor third places to win other seats like East Renfrewshire, Edinburgh South West, Stirling & Strathallen and Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock I know they were a bit worse off here and in 4th but it was still a more limited recovery and like you say the Tories held up fairly well. Maybe the oil factor as Clark has mentioned a few times? |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 9, 2024 15:44:04 GMT
Certainly a disappointing result here. The Conservative vote held up reasonably well. I'd wager that a decent proportion of the Labour vote here was tactical and so I think going forward this is one for the Conservatives to target, rather than Labour, from a tactical voting point of view. The Holyrood equivalent should be a top target in 2026. For which party? Aberdeen South & North Kincardine is a tough ask for Labour - I think Stonehaven is in that seat and I don't know how strong Labour are there. |
|
|
|
Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jul 9, 2024 15:55:33 GMT
Certainly a disappointing result here. The Conservative vote held up reasonably well. I'd wager that a decent proportion of the Labour vote here was tactical and so I think going forward this is one for the Conservatives to target, rather than Labour, from a tactical voting point of view. The Holyrood equivalent should be a top target in 2026. For which party? Aberdeen South & North Kincardine is a tough ask for Labour - I think Stonehaven is in that seat and I don't know how strong Labour are there. This is not correct. The major area outside the boundaries of Aberdeen included is Portlethen, which is more or less Aberdeen overspill. Stonehaven remains in Angus North and Mearns. That said, the obvious Labour target for Scottish Parliament elections is still Central. |
|
|
|
Post by aberdeensouth on Jul 9, 2024 17:41:14 GMT
Certainly a disappointing result here. The Conservative vote held up reasonably well. I'd wager that a decent proportion of the Labour vote here was tactical and so I think going forward this is one for the Conservatives to target, rather than Labour, from a tactical voting point of view. The Holyrood equivalent should be a top target in 2026. For which party? Aberdeen South & North Kincardine is a tough ask for Labour - I think Stonehaven is in that seat and I don't know how strong Labour are there. A target for the Conservatives. 1,671 votes behind SNP last time. The trend across Scotland, and in this seat, at the general election was the SNP vote falling more sharply than the Conservative vote. A competent, targeted, campaign could see them win. |
|
|
|
Post by aberdeensouth on Jul 9, 2024 18:06:16 GMT
Certainly a disappointing result here. The Conservative vote held up reasonably well. I'd wager that a decent proportion of the Labour vote here was tactical and so I think going forward this is one for the Conservatives to target, rather than Labour, from a tactical voting point of view. The Holyrood equivalent should be a top target in 2026. Labour came from pretty poor third places to win other seats like East Renfrewshire, Edinburgh South West, Stirling & Strathallen and Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock I know they were a bit worse off here and in 4th but it was still a more limited recovery and like you say the Tories held up fairly well. Maybe the oil factor as Clark has mentioned a few times? Oil could well be a factor. I have to say, I don't know what the feeling is among those who work in the industry. I very much got the impression it's a dying industry since the downturn 10 years ago, and I now know virtually no one who works in it anymore to gain any insight from. It would be interesting to find out if that issue did indeed influence voters here. The only policy that has cut through to me is that the Conservatives would be more inclined to continue oil exploration whereas the SNP would not. I'm unsure what Labour's policy is. So I'm really not sure what information the average voter who is not politically engaged would have picked up. I certainly saw Andrew Bowie's election material make reference to the issue. But, typically, only a vague platitude. Ultimately, I think this a Conservative inclined seat, and perhaps it was a mistake to compare this to cental belt seats where the Labour vote shot up at the expense of the SNP. The highest Labour got here in recent times was 39.8% in 2001, and it has always been marginal. I know they really did get a derisory share this time, but I still think this is somewhere the Lib Dems could expand their targeting to now that they are quite comfortable in the seats they hold. They tried hard in the 2000s, but never quite got there. I believe Anne Begg had a strong personal vote. They have the potential to hoover up votes from Conservative, Labour and indeed SNP voters. |
|
|
|
Post by ntyuk1707 on Jul 9, 2024 18:58:58 GMT
For which party? Aberdeen South & North Kincardine is a tough ask for Labour - I think Stonehaven is in that seat and I don't know how strong Labour are there. A target for the Conservatives. 1,671 votes behind SNP last time. The trend across Scotland, and in this seat, at the general election was the SNP vote falling more sharply than the Conservative vote. A competent, targeted, campaign could see them win. Notional figures for Aberdeen South & North Kincardine (2024 GE): SNP 31.2% CON 28% LAB 24% LIB 5.4% SNP majority of 3.2% over CON. |
|
Ports
Non-Aligned
Posts: 605
|
Post by Ports on Jul 9, 2024 19:08:18 GMT
A target for the Conservatives. 1,671 votes behind SNP last time. The trend across Scotland, and in this seat, at the general election was the SNP vote falling more sharply than the Conservative vote. A competent, targeted, campaign could see them win. Notional figures for Aberdeen South & North Kincardine (2024 GE): SNP 31.2% CON 28% LAB 24% LIB 5.4% SNP majority of 3.2% over CON. Out of interest will you be doing this for other seats? No worries if not - you've done more than enough for us already. |
|
|
|
Post by ntyuk1707 on Jul 9, 2024 19:10:21 GMT
Notional figures for Aberdeen South & North Kincardine (2024 GE): SNP 31.2% CON 28% LAB 24% LIB 5.4% SNP majority of 3.2% over CON. Out of interest will you be doing this for other seats? No worries if not - you've done more than enough for us already. No, but happy to do it on request. |
|
Clark
Forum Regular
Posts: 744
Member is Online
|
Post by Clark on Jul 9, 2024 20:13:50 GMT
Agree with most of what aberdeensouth said except that there are still thousands employed in the Oil & Gas Industry here - either directly or indirectly and our city economy is still dominated by it. Even if you don't work in it, if there's a downturn, the value of your house will fall so everyone is affected whether they work in the sector or not. I work for a smaller operator and many of the people I work with actually live outside the city - mainly in Gordon & Buchan or West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine.
Aberdeen has always felt 'less Labour' than that of the Industrial Central Belt of Scotland and my gut instinct from just living in the city always made me believe the SNP would still win both seats. Labour still did better than I expected though. Their policy of extending the Windfall tax on the energy sector here will have cost them votes (and possibly 2 x seats).
It would be interesting to see the wards breakdown of votes and whether Labour would've carried their old traditional areas like Kincorth, Garthdee and Torry - I suspect not but interestingly they probably would've carried the upmarket Lower Deeside ward and that was the home base of Malik and many Tory voters probably voted tactically for him.
The Tories would still be ahead in the middle class section in the South west area of the city though I'm sure.
|
|
|
|
Post by ntyuk1707 on Jul 9, 2024 21:44:50 GMT
Agree with most of what aberdeensouth said except that there are still thousands employed in the Oil & Gas Industry here - either directly or indirectly and our city economy is still dominated by it. Even if you don't work in it, if there's a downturn, the value of your house will fall so everyone is affected whether they work in the sector or not. I work for a smaller operator and many of the people I work with actually live outside the city - mainly in Gordon & Buchan or West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine. Aberdeen has always felt 'less Labour' than that of the Industrial Central Belt of Scotland and my gut instinct from just living in the city always made me believe the SNP would still win both seats. Labour still did better than I expected though. Their policy of extending the Windfall tax on the energy sector here will have cost them votes (and possibly 2 x seats). It would be interesting to see the wards breakdown of votes and whether Labour would've carried their old traditional areas like Kincorth, Garthdee and Torry - I suspect not but interestingly they probably would've carried the upmarket Lower Deeside ward and that was the home base of Malik and many Tory voters probably voted tactically for him. The Tories would still be ahead in the middle class section in the South west area of the city though I'm sure. Notional map for Aberdeen City (2024 GE) by polling district based on 2022 local elections:  ![]() As you can see, the Liberal Democrat vote is probably slightly overstated in Kingswells and parts of the West End. The Conservatives dominant in most of south-western Aberdeen and some suburbs north of the River Don. Labour winning in Tauqeer Malik's home of Peterculter and in Tillydrone, Old Aberdeen, Stockethill, Cornhill, Ashgrove, Midstocket and Raedon. SNP strongest in the most deprived parts of Aberdeen South. Conservatives would carry Lower Deeside and Hazlehead, Queens Cross & Countesswells wards. Kingswells, Sheddocksley & Summerhill would be Lib Dem on universal swing. Labour would carry Tillydrone, Seaton & Old Aberdeen ward. SNP ahead in all other wards, although Labour would be very close in Lower Deeside, Midstocket & Rosemount and Hilton, Woodside & Stockethill wards. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 10, 2024 0:17:38 GMT
Agree with most of what aberdeensouth said except that there are still thousands employed in the Oil & Gas Industry here - either directly or indirectly and our city economy is still dominated by it. Even if you don't work in it, if there's a downturn, the value of your house will fall so everyone is affected whether they work in the sector or not. I work for a smaller operator and many of the people I work with actually live outside the city - mainly in Gordon & Buchan or West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine. Aberdeen has always felt 'less Labour' than that of the Industrial Central Belt of Scotland and my gut instinct from just living in the city always made me believe the SNP would still win both seats. Labour still did better than I expected though. Their policy of extending the Windfall tax on the energy sector here will have cost them votes (and possibly 2 x seats). It would be interesting to see the wards breakdown of votes and whether Labour would've carried their old traditional areas like Kincorth, Garthdee and Torry - I suspect not but interestingly they probably would've carried the upmarket Lower Deeside ward and that was the home base of Malik and many Tory voters probably voted tactically for him. The Tories would still be ahead in the middle class section in the South west area of the city though I'm sure. Notional map for Aberdeen City (2024 GE) by polling district based on 2022 local elections: ![]() As you can see, the Liberal Democrat vote is probably slightly overstated in Kingswells and parts of the West End. The Conservatives dominant in most of south-western Aberdeen and some suburbs north of the River Don. Labour winning in Tauqeer Malik's home of Peterculter and in Tillydrone, Old Aberdeen, Stockethill, Cornhill, Ashgrove, Midstocket and Raedon. SNP strongest in the most deprived parts of Aberdeen South. Conservatives would carry Lower Deeside and Hazlehead, Queens Cross & Countesswells wards. Kingswells, Sheddocksley & Summerhill would be Lib Dem on universal swing. Labour would carry Tillydrone, Seaton & Old Aberdeen ward. SNP ahead in all other wards, although Labour would be very close in Lower Deeside, Midstocket & Rosemount and Hilton, Woodside & Stockethill wards. The gift that keeps on giving. |
|
graham
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,344
|
Post by graham on Jul 11, 2024 17:06:17 GMT
What explains the enduring strength of SNP support here? As recently as the elections of 2005 and 2010 the party's support was 10% and 12% respectively . Even going back to both 1974 elections the SNP only managed 14% and 20% - yet in this very poor year fot the party across Scotland it has polled almost 33%.
How much better would Labour have performed had Anne Begg still been their candidate?
|
|
|
|
Post by ntyuk1707 on Jul 11, 2024 21:11:21 GMT
What explains the enduring strength of SNP support here? As recently as the elections of 2005 and 2010 the party's support was 10% and 12% respectively . Even going back to both 1974 elections the SNP only managed 14% and 20% - yet in this very poor year fot the party across Scotland it has polled almost 33%. How much better would Labour have performed had Anne Begg still been their candidate? Confused tactical voting against the Conservatives in addition to Tauqeer Malik's mishap during the election likely contributed to a stronger SNP vote in Aberdeen South than would otherwise be the case. |
|
graham
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,344
|
Post by graham on Jul 12, 2024 10:04:20 GMT
What explains the enduring strength of SNP support here? As recently as the elections of 2005 and 2010 the party's support was 10% and 12% respectively . Even going back to both 1974 elections the SNP only managed 14% and 20% - yet in this very poor year fot the party across Scotland it has polled almost 33%. How much better would Labour have performed had Anne Begg still been their candidate? Confused tactical voting against the Conservatives in addition to Tauqeer Malik's mishap during the election likely contributed to a stronger SNP vote in Aberdeen South than would otherwise be the case. So you appear to be suggesting that some anti-Tory voters supported the SNP having not been persuaded that Labour was again competitive. If so , that is still at variance with what happened elsewhere as Labour jumped from 3rd or 4th place to win. What surprises me about this result is that historically it has not been a SNP bastion at all.Pre- 2015 the party did not come close to winning - not even in the strong performances across Scotland at the 1974 elections. |
|
Clark
Forum Regular
Posts: 744
Member is Online
|
Post by Clark on Jul 12, 2024 13:22:10 GMT
The poorer more working class areas were always areas of Labour strength pre 2015. This is Torry, Kincorth, Garthdee and Nigg (a boundary change now takes in a similar inner city area too). And whilst these areas will have reverted back to Labour to an extent this year, it's still doubtful whether they would've actually carried them although it would've been close. The shift from SNP to Labour in comparable central belt areas was much heavier and of course, Flynn was always going to suffer less of a swing against him than your average SNP incumbent.
I actually know some people who are not really interested in Politics but will just vote SNP anyway for the simple reason that they're patriotic and love Scotland so will just vote for 'Scotland's party'! I feel this sort of attitude in Aberdeen is stronger than elsewhere in Scotland. Dundee would probably be similar.
|
|
