Aberdeen South

[stb12]

Aberdeen South

[ntyuk1707]

Universal swing based on current polling average applied to recent elections for Aberdeen South:

• 2017: 3% Labour majority
• 2019: 5% SNP majority
• 2021: 6% Conservative majority       
• 2022: 5% Labour majority

I would be confident to forecast based on current polling that Stephen Flynn will lose his seat to the Labour Party. 

[ntyuk1707]

Why Labour?

Let's compare two seats which returned a similar 60-40 split against independence at the 2014 independence referendum:

Perth & Kinross-shire has been a Conservative-SNP marginal since the 1970s. The SNP polled seven points ahead of the Conservatives in the constituency at the 2022 local elections. They are on track to hold this seat based on current polling.

East Renfrewshire was a Labour-Conservative marginal until being won by the SNP in 2015. While the SNP were ten points clear of Labour at the 2022 local elections and the Conservatives close behind the SNP, Labour are on track to win the seat with a comfortable majority.

Aberdeen South lies more in the bracket of a former Labour-Conservative marginal which the SNP won in 2015. With SNP's collapse in the polls, the Conservatives are not the ones benefiting in seats like East Renfrewshire and Aberdeen South which they held (briefly) from 2017-2019. That puts Labour as the likely beneficiary, where in seats like Perth & Kinross-shire the move to Labour will be tempered by anti-SNP and anti-Conservative tactical voting, leaving the seat as a Conservative v. SNP fight. 

[Clark]

Fascinating stuff ntyuk1707 and who am I to dispute your expertise.

However, I'd still be surprised to see a Labour gain here - to come from 8% to take the seat would be some result even with a slight help in the boundaries. A large Black population has entered the city in the past 2 years so it will be interesting to see their impact on the result (favour Labour?). Labour has selected an Asian candidate and I'm not sure that will help them to be honest.

Flynn has been campaigning and is talking of 'huge support' for the SNP but he would say that, wouldn't he? Given his national profile, he'll be a tougher nut to crack than just your average SNP incumbent though.

The Tory candidate, John Wheeler has also been out campaigning and will definitely fancy his chances - the Tories seem to be the most pro Oil & Gas party which will surely help them here. Interesting to note that the Tory vote hasn't really collapsed in local by-elections in Scotland - or at least less so than in England.

Overall it's sure to be one to watch come Election night.

[batman]

It's not a 4-way marginal, but it has been won by 3 parties in recent years, and a fourth (the LDs) have come close in the past. Fascinating seat.

[graham]

May 16, 2024 9:02:47 GMT Clark said:

Fascinating stuff ntyuk1707 and who am I to dispute your expertise.

However, I'd still be surprised to see a Labour gain here - to come from 8% to take the seat would be some result even with a slight help in the boundaries. A large Black population has entered the city in the past 2 years so it will be interesting to see their impact on the result (favour Labour?). Labour has selected an Asian candidate and I'm not sure that will help them to be honest.

Flynn has been campaigning and is talking of 'huge support' for the SNP but he would say that, wouldn't he? Given his national profile, he'll be a tougher nut to crack than just your average SNP incumbent though.

The Tory candidate, John Wheeler has also been out campaigning and will definitely fancy his chances - the Tories seem to be the most pro Oil & Gas party which will surely help them here. Interesting to note that the Tory vote hasn't really collapsed in local by-elections in Scotland - or at least less so than in England.

Overall it's sure to be one to watch come Election night.

Labour's barely 8% in 2019 was surely an aberration and unlikely to be typical of the party's underlying support here in that it likely suffered from tactical voting in two directions - ie to the SNP and the Tories. Labour could now reasonably expect a double boost as that unwinds , and the true starting point is much more likely to be 21% polled in 2017 and the 27% received in 2015.

In 2010 SNP support was just 12% - having been 10% in 2005. Even in the relatively good SNP election of October 1974 the party only polled 20% here - so it does not have a longterm history of SNP strength - and that may be important in the context of Independence now having much less salience as an issue.

[stb12]

May 16, 2024 9:55:10 GMT batman said:

It's not a 4-way marginal, but it has been won by 3 parties in recent years, and a fourth (the LDs) have come close in the past. Fascinating seat.

The Lib Dems held the Scottish Parliament seat from 1999-2011, obviously a different type of election but would have initially been the same boundaries

[No Offence Alan]

Current odds at Ladbrokes
Aberdeen South
SNP
1/3
Labour
4/1
Conservatives
6/1
Liberal Democrats
66/1
Greens
200/1

[uthacalthing]

I would take Labour at 4/1.

Tory switchers.

[Tony Otim]

May 28, 2024 1:56:35 GMT uthacalthing said:

I would take Labour at 4/1.

Tory switchers.

There's a few Scottush seats where the Labour price seems really good where they could win...

[batman]

May 28, 2024 6:41:55 GMT Tony Otim said:

May 28, 2024 1:56:35 GMT uthacalthing said:

I would take Labour at 4/1.

Tory switchers.

There's a few Scottush seats where the Labour price seems really good where they could win...

well get off your Scot tush & place a bet   

[ntyuk1707]

May 28, 2024 1:56:35 GMT uthacalthing said:

I would take Labour at 4/1.

Tory switchers.

Great odds. I've put a bet on here for Labour and for Labour to gain Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock at 5/2.

[Clark]

Has a party ever come from 8% in the previous General Election then went onto win at the next one?

I'm still going for the Tories to win here...but of course the SNP cannot be ruled out for a hold.

[ntyuk1707]

May 28, 2024 22:07:05 GMT Clark said:

Has a party ever come from 8% in the previous General Election then went onto win at the next one?

I'm still going for the Tories to win here...but of course the SNP cannot be ruled out for a hold.

The Conservatives went from 12% to 41% in Gordon in 2017. Based on current polling, the vote share Labour needs to win this is much lower (circa 30%). 

[stb12]

The SNP must have won from some pretty low percentages the previous time with their 2015 landslide

[ntyuk1707]

I will warn any prospective betters this is not a particularly safe bet, and on recent polling would be a three-way marginal between SNP, Conservative and Labour.

[Clark]

Got a visit from the Conservative candidate, John Wheeler this morning. He's certainly campaigning hard as can be seen on his social media account. Got the feeling he was keen to distant himself from the Tories in Westminster and focus very much more on the local issues in the city.

I note there is no Lib Dem candidate listed on Wikipedia here (yet?). And also an 'Independent' is listed but not named...

[greyfriar]

www.aberdeencity.gov.uk/sites/default/files/2024-06/Notice-of-poll%20Aberdeen%20South.pdf

Full slate from the main parties along with Green, Reform and Family - plus Sophie Molly to call out any bigotry.

[Clark]

The Labour candidate Tauqeer Malik was outside my work today at lunchtime along with long serving local councilor Willie Young both wearing red rosettes - perhaps trying to appeal to some Oil & Gas people within the building - good luck with that I'd say.

Meanwhile, the local Labour and Conservative candidate Facebook pages are just dominated by foul mouthed and abrasive SNP supporters.
I'd love to see Flynn lose to shut them up.

[Deleted]

Fuck it. Tory gain (again). The energy issue will put them over the top. I think Bielside, Cults, Milltimber, Peterculter and co will hold their noses and vote blue.