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Post by aberdeensouth on Jun 12, 2024 14:32:57 GMT
I don’t know what evidence there is to say Flynn is well-regarded locally. Granted, he’s not a bad media performer but he’s just another glaikit SNP careerist. Not a fan at all. I’ll be voting tactically against him. So I’ll be (begrudgingly) voting Labour here, I think. Best chance of getting Flynn out by the looks of things. Ed Davey and the Lib Dem’s have charmed me I have to say, and I have given them a second thought. At a local level, they’re still popular in the 3 west end wards. I would agree that this will likely be an SNP hold. The best areas for the Conservatives (west end and Cults etc) is the type of place where this populist, culture war Conservatism will not go down well at all. This isn’t Hartlepool. Or even Banff and Buchan. Labour I imagine will see a large uptick, Lib Dems a more modest rise. Conservatives will fall. Although, I think they’ll hold up fairly well. I think the Scottish Conservatives have done a fairly good job over the past decade as carving themselves out as different to the UK party and the West End has to be one of their best areas in Scotland. I’m sceptical as to how much impact the oil issue will help them - since the downturn 10 years ago I hardly know anyone who works in the industry anymore. ‘Aberdeen - Oil Capital of Europe’ is a phrase long forgotten. SNP vote will surely fall. 45% in 2019 was a particularly egregious and disappointing result. They were barely getting past 10% until 2015. But I think the other 3 will split allowing them to win on a fairly low vote share. Just like Labour in the 2000s. Noticed you liking a few things, good to see you make your first post! Thanks, long time lurker but the upcoming election gave me the impetus to get stuck in! |
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Clark
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Post by Clark on Jun 12, 2024 14:33:40 GMT
Yes, always good to hear the views of a fellow localist from the Granite city - I think there's a few of us on the forum which is great.
A tactical vote for Labour is interesting - some will see them as the challengers some (like me) will see the Tories as the challengers.
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Jun 12, 2024 14:36:10 GMT
Noticed you liking a few things, good to see you make your first post! Thanks, long time lurker but the upcoming election gave me the impetus to get stuck in! No need to introduce what constituency you’re from with a username like that anyway  |
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Post by stb12 on Jun 12, 2024 14:38:33 GMT
Yes, always good to hear the views of a fellow localist from the Granite city - I think there's a few of us on the forum which is great. A tactical vote for Labour is interesting - some will see them as the challengers some (like me) will see the Tories as the challengers. Could the Tories have held up a bit better at all if Ross Thomson hadn’t seemed to be quite a controversial MP? |
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Post by Clark on Jun 12, 2024 14:40:36 GMT
Yes, always good to hear the views of a fellow localist from the Granite city - I think there's a few of us on the forum which is great. A tactical vote for Labour is interesting - some will see them as the challengers some (like me) will see the Tories as the challengers. Could the Tories have held up a bit better at all if Ross Thomson hadn’t seemed to be quite a controversial MP? Possibly but that was some result he got in 2017 and shows the potential the blues have here. |
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Post by aberdeensouth on Jun 12, 2024 14:44:40 GMT
Yes, always good to hear the views of a fellow localist from the Granite city - I think there's a few of us on the forum which is great. A tactical vote for Labour is interesting - some will see them as the challengers some (like me) will see the Tories as the challengers. I have seen your posts and noticed you’re a fellow Aberdonian! The Conservatives have a high floor but fairly low ceiling here imo. The constituency really is split 50/50 between some of the poshest (and nicest!) areas in Scotland and the council/ ex-council estates in the Eastern half. The expansion of the constituency north is not a help to the Conservatives either. I just can’t see the them coming through. Labour on the other hand, can appeal to those former SNP voters as well as those of us who may be inclined to vote Conservative who have been appalled by this derisory government and will not be touching them at this election. It will be a close one. |
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Post by graham on Jun 12, 2024 14:46:06 GMT
Could the Tories have held up a bit better at all if Ross Thomson hadn’t seemed to be quite a controversial MP? Possibly but that was some result he got here in 2017 and shows the potential the blues have here. In the past Aberdeen South has more often than not been Tory. Labour won for the first time in 1966 but after regaining it in 1970 it stayed Tory until 1987. Labour held it for a single term until 1992 when the Tories won again. Only post - 1997 did it appear rather a lost cause for them - though Ruth Davidson's 2017 surge got them over the line again. |
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Post by aberdeensouth on Jun 12, 2024 14:49:00 GMT
Yes, always good to hear the views of a fellow localist from the Granite city - I think there's a few of us on the forum which is great. A tactical vote for Labour is interesting - some will see them as the challengers some (like me) will see the Tories as the challengers. Could the Tories have held up a bit better at all if Ross Thomson hadn’t seemed to be quite a controversial MP? I actually liked Ross. He was a councillor here in Hazlehead/ Ashley/ Queens Cross so had met him a few times. He was personable and worked hard in the constituency. I’m not sure he was particularly controversial until the accusation of sexual misconduct came out. Which he was, of course, cleared of. His support for Brexit clearly didn’t help in this Remain-heavy constituency. |
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Post by uthacalthing on Jun 26, 2024 7:36:08 GMT
Could the Tories have held up a bit better at all if Ross Thomson hadn’t seemed to be quite a controversial MP? I actually liked Ross. He was a councillor here in Hazlehead/ Ashley/ Queens Cross so had met him a few times. He was personable and worked hard in the constituency. I’m not sure he was particularly controversial until the accusation of sexual misconduct came out. Which he was, of course, cleared of. His support for Brexit clearly didn’t help in this Remain-heavy constituency. Not quite, he was not permitted to defend the seat so we will never know. But his support for Brexit was critical in motivating the Scottish Tory establishment to rush to ditch him. Being a good looking gay guy I also suspect with no evidence at all that he may also have failed to put out for the elderly q ueens who loom large in the Scottish Tory establishment |
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right
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Post by right on Jun 26, 2024 15:27:06 GMT
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Jun 26, 2024 15:36:35 GMT
I don’t think it’s surprising at all that such feelings exist in Scotland where both parties have had to deal with SNP dominance for so long, and in the case of Aberdeen in particular the local Labour and Tory parties obviously worked closely together in the council
While it make sense to pitch for unionist tactical votes he seems to have fallen into a trap there of being a little bit too open
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Post by uthacalthing on Jun 26, 2024 17:56:12 GMT
Tauqeer Malik is a good guy. I say that as one not renowned for his pro-Muslim endorsements.
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Clark
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Post by Clark on Jun 26, 2024 17:58:17 GMT
A split pro union vote here could save Flynn here.
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Post by ntyuk1707 on Jun 26, 2024 21:25:15 GMT
Too close to call, will update this nearer the election. Clark aberdeensouth - any idea of whether Tauqeer Malik's recent video is cutting through at all? EDIT: going for a very close SNP hold |
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Post by Clark on Jun 27, 2024 14:52:09 GMT
Too close to call, will update this nearer the election. Clark aberdeensouth - any idea of whether Tauqeer Malik's recent video is cutting through at all? Well I've just been out to the Lower Deeside ward today and I was shocked at the amount of Tauqeer Malik stakes - I saw 4 or 5 but I was only on 2 or 3 main roads. He's clearly very popular in this ward and in particular the Peterculter section where I never got to but where he gives his home address. This now explains why Labour carried the Peterculter polling district area within this ward at the 2022 Locals as TM was the Labour candidate in Lower Deeside ward. I suspect there will be many Tory voters voting Labour here. I must admit that support for him within 'Aberdeen city' doesn't seem as strong though. Lower Deeside ward is going to be Labour's strongest area next Thursday by the look of things - just imagine that years ago! Total stakes/posters now - SNP 13, Labour 8, nothing for any other party. TM probably has 30 or 40 stakes in his ward alone I would guess! |
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Post by Clark on Jun 27, 2024 15:18:21 GMT
However, another point worth making is Independent councilor in Lower Deeside ward, Marie Boulton, has come out in support for the Conservative candidate, John Wheeler. And, Jennifer Stewart who also did very well in Aberdeen city as an Independent candidate in 2022 has also endorsed Mr Wheeler.
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Post by uthacalthing on Jun 27, 2024 18:32:17 GMT
Tauqeer Malik gets votes from Tories that no white Labour candidate could get. But it won't stop stupid Labour people clinging to the idea that Tories are probably all racists. It's about social class, business friendliness and cricket.
If I was in Aberdeen I would have to ask him about Gaza to stop myself from voting for him and if there were no witnesses he would probably say something I agreed with.
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Post by aberdeensouth on Jun 28, 2024 12:48:19 GMT
Too close to call, will update this nearer the election. Clark aberdeensouth - any idea of whether Tauqeer Malik's recent video is cutting through at all? Difficult to say. For what it’s worth, I agree with him, and I imagine a large number of voters whose number one priority is being anti-SNP would too. It’s a really silly thing for a Labour candidate to say though. There’s been a few instances in recent elections of people being caught by doorbell cameras saying silly things. Candidates will have to be more careful in future. Even doorstep conversations are no longer private! I’ve also seen a few Labour boards out and about in the constituency. Can’t recall seeing any for any other party. |
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Post by November_Rain on Jun 30, 2024 19:08:27 GMT
How has the trouble maker Sophie Molly been received in the area?
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Post by uthacalthing on Jun 30, 2024 19:26:20 GMT
I doubt that anyone has received them
In fact, I doubt that they have received anyone either
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