Post by ntyuk1707 on Sept 24, 2023 16:47:46 GMT
Aberdeen South is a burgh constituency of the House of Commons covering the southern half of the Aberdeen City Council area. Aberdeen is Scotland's third largest city, known for its grey granite buildings, long beach and oil industry, with Aberdeen Airport being the busiest heliport in the world owing to its role in transporting oil workers to North Sea rigs.
The constituency of Aberdeen South covers most of Aberdeen city centre, inner city areas like Pittodrie, Hanover, George Street, Aberdeen harbour and Torry near the city centre, the ex-council estates of Kincorth, Kaimhill and Garthdee along the River Dee, the suburb of Cove Bay, and Aberdeen's affluent West End and highly affluent suburbs down towards Cults, Milltimber and Peterculter on the periphery of Aberdeen along the Royal Deeside Way towards Balmoral.
Located within this constituency are some of Scotland's wealthiest areas including Cults, Queens Cross and Milltimber. In the far south-west of Aberdeen, this includes a string of former villages which have now been subsumed into the city including Peterculter, Milltimber, Bieldside and Cults. At the 2022 local election, Peterculter voted Labour while Cults, Bieldside and Milltimber had the Conservatives in front, with an overall vote in the corresponding Lower Deeside ward of 30% Conservative, 24% Labour, 22% Independent and 15% SNP. This is one of the only wards in mainland Scotland to not be represented by an SNP Councillor, and at the 2014 Scottish independence referendum it is estimated to have returned the second-highest vote against Scottish independence at 80% No to 20% Yes.
East of here is more large bungalows in Craigiebuckler, Hazlehead, Seafield and Mannofield, which give way to spacious townhouses as you approach the City Centre's West End and Broomhill areas. In the south-east is the more socially mixed ex-council estates of Garthdee and Kaimhill near Robert Gordon University, one of two universities in the city of Aberdeen. The corresponding local government wards of Hazlehead, Queens Cross & Countesswells and Airyhall, Broomhill & Garthdee which cover these areas are weaker areas for the SNP. At the 2022 local election, the Hazelhead, Queens Cross & Countesswells ward voted 25.4% Lib Dem, 25.4% Conservative, 20.9% (Lib Dem-leaning) Independent and 18.4% SNP, with the Conservatives performing stronger in the West End of the city. This ward had one of the strongest votes against Scottish independence at the 2014 independence referendum, with an estimated 77% No vote making it the fourth most anti-independence ward in the whole of Scotland. The more mixed though still highly affluent ward of Airyhall, Broomhill & Garthdee voted 36.5% Lib Dem, 27.5% SNP and 21% Conservative at the 2022 local election, and is estimated to have rejected Scottish independence in 2014 with a 70% No vote, although the ex-council estate areas of Garthdee and Kaimhill are significantly stronger for the SNP, with the party taking 47% of the vote in these areas at last year's local elections.
The social profile of this constituency changes quite radically as you head along Aberdeen's de facto High Street, Union Street, and towards the inner city areas of George Street, Hanover, Aberdeen Harbour and Pittodrie verging onto the North Sea. The harbour area is fairly industrial, with a peppering of seedy apartments separating the city centre from the small ex-fishing hamlet of Footdee on the mouth of the River Dee. The harbour area is known as Aberdeen's red light district and it was the former home of Peep Peeps, known as Britain's 'toughest pub'.
The Hanover estate and flats in the vicinty of George Street also have a more run-down veneer compared to the well-heeled suburbs and townhouses in the south-west of the city. These areas are known as hotspots for substance abuse and have a high proportion of migrants and students studying at the University of Aberdeen. North-east, on edge of the constituency, the Pittodrie area has pockets of deprivation mixed in with more modern student-orientated accommodiation and ex-council housing and tenements. Pittodrie Stadium is the home of Aberdeen Football Club, and Kings Links Golf Course is also located in this area.
At the 2022 local council election, the overlapping George Street & Harbour ward was unsurprisingly a strong area for the SNP and very weak area for the Conservatives, returning a 42% SNP vote to 20% Labour vote, 14% Green vote, 11% Lib Dem vote and 11% Conservative vote, with the harbour area representing the SNP's strongest part of the ward with an SNP vote of over 50%. In 2014, it is estimated that the ward voted 51% in favour of Scottish independence, in stark constrast to the high anti-independence vote in the west of the constituency.
Moving to the southern part of the city centre from Aberdeen train station and the city's main shopping centre, Union Square, as you head south-west rented apartments and tenements give way to more affluent townhouses and suburbs in the vicinity of the Victorian Duthie Park and David Welch Winter Gardens in the city's Ferryhill area. East of here, across the River Dee, is yet more ex-council housing and inner city tenements in Torry and Balnagask. The Torry & Ferryhill ward voted 40% SNP, 20% Conservative and 17% Labour at last year's council elections, with the Ferryhill polling district returning a 31% Conservative vote to 28% SNP vote, in contrast to a 54% SNP vote in Balnagask, an area which contains some of the most deprived parts of Aberdeen City. The ward is estimated to have rejected independence by a marginal 51% No vote.
The final part of the constituency sits between the River Dee and the rugged coast of the North Sea, covering the industrial estates of Tullos and Altens, ex-council estate of Kincorth and suburb of Cove Bay which was once an independent fishing village separate from the rest of the city but has since expanded significantly with many new build houses. On social indicators, the ward is fairly mixed, however all parts of the ward are decent areas for the SNP in local elections, with the ward having voted 46% SNP to 21% Conservative and 19% Labour at last year's local election, and having had an estimated Yes vote for independence of 50% Yes.
Ths contrasting demography of this seat between the highly affluent and anti-independence suburbs and townhouses to the west of the seat in contrast to inner city and ex-council estates to the east makes this one of the most socially divided constituencies in the whole of Scotland. Reflecting this, the politics of this constituency are just as divided, with a stronger Conservative vote in middle and upper class areas to the west of the seat countered by a strong SNP vote in more working class areas to the east of the seat.
The constituency has gained the George Street & Harbour ward as part of parliamentary boundary changes, which is very benefitical for the SNP. At Westminster, Aberdeen South was, for the most part, a safe Unionist seat from 1918, with two spells of voting Labour in 1966 (for Donald Dewar, Scotland's first First Minister) and 1987. At the 1997 general election, Labour's Anne Begg then gained the constituency and held onto it despite a strong Liberal challenge until it fell to the SNP in 2015. The Conservatives then briefly held the seat from 2017-19, before it was won by Stephen Flynn, who is the SNP's leader at Westminster. In the Scottish Parliament, Aberdeen South was held by the Liberal Democrats from 1999-2011, followed by the SNP since then, with the Conservatives coming surprisingly close to gaining the seat in 2021 by cutting the SNP's majority in half to 1,671 votes despite Stephen Flynn having won the Westminster seat in 2019 with 3,990 votes.
Despite the chameleon nature of the seat since 1997, it is very much a Conservative-SNP marginal, which may well have been winnable for the Conservatives on the basis of a strong performance at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election coupled with Brexit being less prominent of an issue in this more remain-leaning seat. However, the addition of George Street & Harbour ward significantly benefits the SNP, and brings what would have been a 65% vote against Scottish independence in the seat down to 62% No.
The Conservatives may have some room to capatilise on the SNP and Labour's non-commital oil & gas policies in this seat, which has a high proportion of oil & gas workers. Since Covid, the prevailing attitude in the city is that it is a city in decline due to an uncertain future for oil and gas and increasing rates of social deprivation throughout the city.
However, on current polling Stephen Flynn would most likely be returned here as MP. Labour's prospects cannot be ruled out fully here, however with rising electoral support in opinion polls, here more than elsewhere support for the Conservatives may well be chipped away by Labour and allow the SNP to hold this seat. For example, a Multi-Regression Poll by YouGov in May suggests that had an election been held then the SNP would have held the seat with 35% of the vote to a 28% Labour vote and 22% Conservative vote.
In 2019, the SNP won 45% of the vote in Aberdeen South to the Conservatives' 36%, however in the Scottish Parliament on a worse boundary, the SNP only took 42% to the Conservatives' 38%. This may indicate that a combination of higher opposition to Brexit in this seat coupled with controversy surrounding the former Conservative MP for the area might have lead to a stronger result for the SNP in 2019 than they would otherwise have gotten, however this may be levelled-off by the poorer boundary for the Conservatives from the recent boundary review.
2014 independence referendum notional:
NO: 62%
YES: 38%
