Skipton and Ripon

[stb12]

Skipton and Ripon

[YL]

Almanac profile

Candidates

Malcolm Birks (Lab)
Andy Brown (Green)
Simon Garvey (Reform UK)
Ryan Kett (Yorkshire Party)
Andrew Murday (Lib Dem)
Guy Phoenix (Heritage)
Julian Smith* (Con)
Keith Tordoff (Ind)

[kvasir]

The Nowcast at Election maps UK currently predicts this seat as a Labour gain:

electionmaps.uk/nowcast

Labour Party: 34.4% (+15.2%)
Conservative Party: 30.0% (-28.9%)
Reform UK: 15.5% (+15.5%)
Liberal Democrats: 12.0% (-3.2%)
Green Party: 7.7% (3.0%)
Other: 0.4% (-1.6%)

Personally, I don't think this will happen, I think the anti-Tory vote will not unite behind Labour and the Liberal Democrats will do better, splitting the vote. But it certainly is indicative that the Tories are doing so poorly that this seat is being predicted to fall in serious Nowcast.

[finsobruce]

Mar 24, 2024 11:28:36 GMT kvasir said:

The Nowcast at Election maps UK currently predicts this seat as a Labour gain:

electionmaps.uk/nowcast

Labour Party: 34.4% (+15.2%)
Conservative Party: 30.0% (-28.9%)
Reform UK: 15.5% (+15.5%)
Liberal Democrats: 12.0% (-3.2%)
Green Party: 7.7% (3.0%)
Other: 0.4% (-1.6%)

Personally, I don't think this will happen, I think the anti-Tory vote will not unite behind Labour and the Liberal Democrats will do better, splitting the vote. But it certainly is indicative that the Tories are doing so poorly that this seat is being predicted to fall in serious Nowcast.

The fascinating Skipton wartime by election of 1944 comes to mind. The Commonwealth party winner Hugh Lawson pledged that he would not stand at the general election and the Tories regained the seat. I can't remember why he made that pledge (he stood at Harrow West instead) but i'll try and dig out the reasons.

[The Bishop]

You have to suspect that the LibDems rather dropped the ball here when they - rather strangely - didn't stand a candidate in 2017.

[johnloony]

Mar 24, 2024 11:28:36 GMT kvasir said:

The Nowcast at Election maps UK currently predicts this seat as a Labour gain:

electionmaps.uk/nowcast

Labour Party: 34.4% (+15.2%)
Conservative Party: 30.0% (-28.9%)
Reform UK: 15.5% (+15.5%)
Liberal Democrats: 12.0% (-3.2%)
Green Party: 7.7% (3.0%)
Other: 0.4% (-1.6%)

Personally, I don't think this will happen, I think the anti-Tory vote will not unite behind Labour and the Liberal Democrats will do better, splitting the vote. But it certainly is indicative that the Tories are doing so poorly that this seat is being predicted to fall in serious Nowcast.

The idea that the Conservative vote would go down from 59% to 30% is intrinsically ridiculous, and that fact alone makes the whole prediction / projection a load of nonsense.

[carolus]

Mar 24, 2024 11:59:08 GMT The Bishop said:

You have to suspect that the LibDems rather dropped the ball here when they - rather strangely - didn't stand a candidate in 2017.

I seem to remember there was a local agreement with the greens, presumably in exchange for their absence from harrogate.

[maxque]

Mar 24, 2024 12:03:41 GMT johnloony said:

Mar 24, 2024 11:28:36 GMT kvasir said:

The Nowcast at Election maps UK currently predicts this seat as a Labour gain:

electionmaps.uk/nowcast

Labour Party: 34.4% (+15.2%)
Conservative Party: 30.0% (-28.9%)
Reform UK: 15.5% (+15.5%)
Liberal Democrats: 12.0% (-3.2%)
Green Party: 7.7% (3.0%)
Other: 0.4% (-1.6%)

Personally, I don't think this will happen, I think the anti-Tory vote will not unite behind Labour and the Liberal Democrats will do better, splitting the vote. But it certainly is indicative that the Tories are doing so poorly that this seat is being predicted to fall in serious Nowcast.

The idea that the Conservative vote would go down from 59% to 30% is intrinsically ridiculous, and that fact alone makes the whole prediction / projection a load of nonsense.

If/when the Conservative get 19% nationally, how do you think the drop will happen instead?

[batman]

I don't think for one moment that the Tories will get as little as 19% in the general election. Less than 30%, however, that's very possible & in fact pretty likely.

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Mar 24, 2024 11:34:58 GMT finsobruce said:

Mar 24, 2024 11:28:36 GMT kvasir said:

The Nowcast at Election maps UK currently predicts this seat as a Labour gain:

electionmaps.uk/nowcast

Labour Party: 34.4% (+15.2%)
Conservative Party: 30.0% (-28.9%)
Reform UK: 15.5% (+15.5%)
Liberal Democrats: 12.0% (-3.2%)
Green Party: 7.7% (3.0%)
Other: 0.4% (-1.6%)

Personally, I don't think this will happen, I think the anti-Tory vote will not unite behind Labour and the Liberal Democrats will do better, splitting the vote. But it certainly is indicative that the Tories are doing so poorly that this seat is being predicted to fall in serious Nowcast.

The fascinating Skipton wartime by election of 1944 comes to mind. The Commonwealth party winner Hugh Lawson pledged that he would not stand at the general election and the Tories regained the seat. I can't remember why he made that pledge (he stood at Harrow West instead) but i'll try and dig out the reasons.

The Skipton District Labour Party decided to endorse Lawson, the Common Wealth candidate, in exchange for the guarantee that Lawson would stand down in favour of a Labour candidate at the next general election. according to wiki. Their source By-Elections in British Politics by Cook and Ramsden

[johnloony]

Mar 24, 2024 14:00:39 GMT maxque said:

Mar 24, 2024 12:03:41 GMT johnloony said:

The idea that the Conservative vote would go down from 59% to 30% is intrinsically ridiculous, and that fact alone makes the whole prediction / projection a load of nonsense.

If/when the Conservative get 19% nationally, how do you think the drop will happen instead?

The Conservative vote isn’t going to drop to 19% nationally, so the question doesn’t arise.

But if it did, then the figures you have quoted would indeed be viable and realistic (or an even bigger drop).

[kvasir]

Malcolm Birks is the Labour Party candidate. He stood for Labour in 2015 and pushed the Labour Party into second following the collapse of the Liberal Democrats.

[devolutionist]

Mar 14, 2024 17:52:55 GMT YL said:

Almanac profile

Candidates

Julian Smith* (Con)
Andy Brown (Green)
Simon Garvey (Reform UK)
Andrew Murday (Lib Dem)
Malcolm Birks (Lab)
Guy Phoenix (Heritage)

I've got an appointment tomorrow for 2pm with electoral services, all being well there will be a Yorkshire Party candidate.

[YL]

Jun 5, 2024 22:20:11 GMT devolutionist said:

Mar 14, 2024 17:52:55 GMT YL said:

Almanac profile

Candidates

Julian Smith* (Con)
Andy Brown (Green)
Simon Garvey (Reform UK)
Andrew Murday (Lib Dem)
Malcolm Birks (Lab)
Guy Phoenix (Heritage)

I've got an appointment tomorrow for 2pm with electoral services, all being well there will be a Yorkshire Party candidate.

How many candidates do you expect to have the YP to have? On my list I have candidates in Bridlington & the Wolds, Leeds NW, Ossett & Denby Dale and Wetherby & Easingwold, and it seems like we can also expect candidates here and in P, C & K.

[batman]

I remember when Julian Smith was first selected, almost everyone on UKPR said what a complete prat he was. He appears to have distinctly improved his reputation since then.

[Chris from Brum]

Mar 24, 2024 13:36:01 GMT carolus said:

Mar 24, 2024 11:59:08 GMT The Bishop said:

You have to suspect that the LibDems rather dropped the ball here when they - rather strangely - didn't stand a candidate in 2017.

I seem to remember there was a local agreement with the greens, presumably in exchange for their absence from harrogate.

Yes, that was it. However the voters of Harrogate declined to go along with the scheme and the Tories held comfortably. No deals this time.

[devolutionist]

Jun 6, 2024 7:00:14 GMT YL said:

Jun 5, 2024 22:20:11 GMT devolutionist said:

I've got an appointment tomorrow for 2pm with electoral services, all being well there will be a Yorkshire Party candidate.

How many candidates do you expect to have the YP to have? On my list I have candidates in Bridlington & the Wolds, Leeds NW, Ossett & Denby Dale and Wetherby & Easingwold, and it seems like we can also expect candidates here and in P, C & K.

I'm not too close to that sort of info now (young family and found being on the exec too much of a time sink), but if it helps the leader told me that we shouldn't be too far under the 2019 figure which was 28 I believe. So I'm assuming over 20. 

And yes to PC&K, don't think papers are in yet but that is being worked on. 

[devolutionist]

Jun 5, 2024 22:20:11 GMT devolutionist said:

Mar 14, 2024 17:52:55 GMT YL said:

Almanac profile

Candidates

Julian Smith* (Con)
Andy Brown (Green)
Simon Garvey (Reform UK)
Andrew Murday (Lib Dem)
Malcolm Birks (Lab)
Guy Phoenix (Heritage)

I've got an appointment tomorrow for 2pm with electoral services, all being well there will be a Yorkshire Party candidate.

Confirmed. 

[devolutionist]

Mar 24, 2024 12:03:41 GMT johnloony said:

Mar 24, 2024 11:28:36 GMT kvasir said:

The Nowcast at Election maps UK currently predicts this seat as a Labour gain:

electionmaps.uk/nowcast

Labour Party: 34.4% (+15.2%)
Conservative Party: 30.0% (-28.9%)
Reform UK: 15.5% (+15.5%)
Liberal Democrats: 12.0% (-3.2%)
Green Party: 7.7% (3.0%)
Other: 0.4% (-1.6%)

Personally, I don't think this will happen, I think the anti-Tory vote will not unite behind Labour and the Liberal Democrats will do better, splitting the vote. But it certainly is indicative that the Tories are doing so poorly that this seat is being predicted to fall in serious Nowcast.

The idea that the Conservative vote would go down from 59% to 30% is intrinsically ridiculous, and that fact alone makes the whole prediction / projection a load of nonsense.

We saw 56.2% to 34.9% in the Kingswood by-election and 62.2% to 24.6% in Wellingborough in February, although granted by-elections are a different animal with there being no incumbent, and incumbents tend to build a degree of goodwill amongst constituents, even those who aren't naturally inclined to vote for their party e.g. by helping them resolve a particular issue, or being responsive to general enquiries. 

Selby was 60.3% to 34.3% also, and there is only one constituency between Selby and Skipton and Ripon.

[devolutionist]

Mar 14, 2024 17:52:55 GMT YL said:

Almanac profile

Candidates

Julian Smith* (Con)
Andy Brown (Green)
Simon Garvey (Reform UK)
Ryan Kett (Yorkshire Party)
Andrew Murday (Lib Dem)
Malcolm Birks (Lab)
Guy Phoenix (Heritage)

Keith Tordoff standing as an independent.