J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 14,840 
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Post by J.G.Harston on Jun 7, 2024 16:58:00 GMT
Malcolm Birks (Lab)
Andy Brown (Green)
Simon Garvey (Reform UK)
Ryan Kett (Yorkshire Party)
Andrew Murday (Lib Dem)
Guy Phoenix (Heritage)
Julian Smith (Con)
Keith Tordoff (Ind)
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,915
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Post by YL on Jun 26, 2024 16:48:14 GMT
Just flagging up the bizarre Electoral Calculus prediction for this seat, based on the MRP out today
Reform 53.8%
Lab 22.9%
Con 14.5%
Lib Dem 6.1%
Green 2.4%
Is this a mistake?
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Post by batman on Jun 26, 2024 21:39:47 GMT
It sure is. Even if they don't realise it is.
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Post by devolutionist on Jun 28, 2024 10:13:40 GMT
Just flagging up the bizarre Electoral Calculus prediction for this seat, based on the MRP out today Reform 53.8% Lab 22.9% Con 14.5% Lib Dem 6.1% Green 2.4% Is this a mistake? You always get major outliers, this is almost certainly one. I think Julian Smith will cling on to his seat here, with Labour not far behind. Which will then lead to questions within Labour about whether they could have won the seat if they'd selected Brian McDaid, who seems to have been the local members preferred candidate. He appears to have had his selected vetoed by central party for a very minor issue, a historic tweet which wasn't particular offensive, if indeed we've been made privy to the full story. |
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Post by hullenedge on Jun 28, 2024 11:29:13 GMT
The new EC prediction:-
Ref 33.7%
Lab 28.5%
Con 23.5%
LD 8.7%
Green 4.3%
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Post by kvasir on Jun 28, 2024 13:55:14 GMT
Just flagging up the bizarre Electoral Calculus prediction for this seat, based on the MRP out today Reform 53.8% Lab 22.9% Con 14.5% Lib Dem 6.1% Green 2.4% Is this a mistake? You always get major outliers, this is almost certainly one. I think Julian Smith will cling on to his seat here, with Labour not far behind. Which will then lead to questions within Labour about whether they could have won the seat if they'd selected Brian McDaid, who seems to have been the local members preferred candidate. He appears to have had his selected vetoed by central party for a very minor issue, a historic tweet which wasn't particular offensive, if indeed we've been made privy to the full story. A bigger issue is likely resources being pumped into Richmond and Northallerton to humiliate Rishie rather than the more winnable Skipton and Ripon. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,067
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 28, 2024 14:15:45 GMT
The new EC prediction:- Ref 33.7% Lab 28.5% Con 23.5% LD 8.7% Green 4.3% They have apparently admitted getting quite a few of their original MRP projections earlier this week wrong (this one had Reform at nearly 60%) My view of Electoral Calculus is already well rehearsed, and let's just say this hasn't done much to alter it. |
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graham
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,350
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Post by graham on Jun 28, 2024 14:55:48 GMT
Would this not have been a LD target in earlier years? I recall Clare Brooks as a feisty Liberal coming close to winning Skipton - and David Austick did win Ripon at the July 1973 by election.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,067
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 28, 2024 15:04:12 GMT
The old Skipton seat was a bit different to this, though (containing part of present day Pendle and less Tory genepool rural areas)
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Post by Ron Swanson on Jun 28, 2024 15:36:32 GMT
The new EC prediction:- Ref 33.7% Lab 28.5% Con 23.5% LD 8.7% Green 4.3% Reform aren’t going to come close to winning this, no way. |
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Post by devolutionist on Jun 28, 2024 17:45:09 GMT
The new EC prediction:- Ref 33.7% Lab 28.5% Con 23.5% LD 8.7% Green 4.3% Reform aren’t going to come close to winning this, no way. Pretty much everybody I met in Ripon when I went out and about for an hour or two after the Stray Ferret hustings on Wednesday told me that they were voting Reform. It did make me wonder. Then I had to endure a taxi ride home to Knaresborough in a taxi with a reform supporting taxi driver, who told me he drives Julian Smith around a lot, and he told me that all their taxi drivers are voting Reform. In the hustings themselves Reform have had very little vocal support (a few jeers in fact in one of the hustings); but I don't think the type of people who typically attend church hustings are ever going to be their core vote. Personally I think Julian Smith will cling on to his seat. He's not a politician I've got any reason to have major issue with, I don't think there's enough animosity amongst the electorate with Julian Smith as an individual to see that huge majority overturned, I just can't see it. |
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,832
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Post by john07 on Jun 28, 2024 18:05:28 GMT
It sure is. Even if they don't realise it is. They probably talked to a few taxi drivers and assumed that they were the pulse of local opinion. ‘I had that Keir Starmer in the back of the cab last week. Stringing up is too good for him’. |
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,915
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Post by YL on Jun 28, 2024 19:46:14 GMT
The new EC prediction:- Ref 33.7% Lab 28.5% Con 23.5% LD 8.7% Green 4.3% They have apparently admitted getting quite a few of their original MRP projections earlier this week wrong (this one had Reform at nearly 60%) My view of Electoral Calculus is already well rehearsed, and let's just say this hasn't done much to alter it. Here is their statement on Twitter: The crazier results do seem to have been damped down, with this seat still predicted for Reform but by less than the crazy margin they previously had. They also now have Rother Valley as a narrow Labour gain whereas previously they had it as a Tory hold, and they still have Labour winning Stirling & Strathallan but not by the almost North Korean margin it was shown as yesterday. |
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Post by bjornhattan on Jun 28, 2024 19:52:20 GMT
Reform aren’t going to come close to winning this, no way. Pretty much everybody I met in Ripon when I went out and about for an hour or two after the Stray Ferret hustings on Wednesday told me that they were voting Reform. It did make me wonder. Then I had to endure a taxi ride home to Knaresborough in a taxi with a reform supporting taxi driver, who told me he drives Julian Smith around a lot, and he told me that all their taxi drivers are voting Reform. In the hustings themselves Reform have had very little vocal support (a few jeers in fact in one of the hustings); but I don't think the type of people who typically attend church hustings are ever going to be their core vote. Personally I think Julian Smith will cling on to his seat. He's not a politician I've got any reason to have major issue with, I don't think there's enough animosity amongst the electorate with Julian Smith as an individual to see that huge majority overturned, I just can't see it. The (dubious) Electoral Calculus figures have Labour ahead in the three Skipton wards, Aire Valley, and Settle. The remaining wards (including all of the Ripon half) are shown as Reform leaning. Personally I still can't see it as likely - it just seems totally out of left field in a seat which isn't really a populist sort of area. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jun 28, 2024 20:00:52 GMT
Also I would have thought Skipton would be one of the stronger areas for Reform in this constituency. It is another one that I wonder how it would go if Labour had actually targeted it (alongside Beverley & Holderness and Richmond & Northallerton)
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Post by Ron Swanson on Jun 28, 2024 20:21:02 GMT
Also I would have thought Skipton would be one of the stronger areas for Reform in this constituency. It is another one that I wonder how it would go if Labour had actually targeted it (alongside Beverley & Holderness and Richmond & Northallerton) I’ve not been to Skipton for ages, but I’m in Ripon fairly often - the city centre does need a bit of tlc but otherwise I’d say it is an affluent area, as are many of the surrounding towns and villages. And the people that live there don’t strike me as Reformy types. |
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Post by batman on Jun 28, 2024 20:32:49 GMT
no definitely not. Ripon is basically a Lib Dem centre isn't it?
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Post by devolutionist on Jul 1, 2024 8:11:28 GMT
Also I would have thought Skipton would be one of the stronger areas for Reform in this constituency. It is another one that I wonder how it would go if Labour had actually targeted it (alongside Beverley & Holderness and Richmond & Northallerton) I delivered flyers to 1420 homes in Skipton yesterday (feel like I've just run a marathon, its very hilly and my backpack was 12kg at the start!) On the strength of window posters and garden boards, Labour had by far the most, a couple for Reform and a couple for Greens, none for Lib Dems. That's probably an utterly terrible way of judging support, because Labour have probably got one of those "yeah just tell us you want a garden board and we'll come and whack it up" operations, and people voting for Reform might not want the awkward conversations with neighbours. In hindsight, with that in mind, this post of mine is probably completely stupid... but I'll post it anyway :-D |
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Post by devolutionist on Jul 1, 2024 8:14:21 GMT
no definitely not. Ripon is basically a Lib Dem centre isn't it? The Lib Dems hold one of the two council seats in Ripon, the other held by an independent. In the one they do hold their margin of victory wasn't all that great, with an Independent coming second. Is it at all possibly that you might be confusing it with the not-too-far-away town of a similar size in a neighbouring constituency, Knaresborough, where the Lib Dems won both of the NYC council seats with a landslide and hold most of the seats on the Town Council? That is definitely a Lib Dem stronghold. |
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Post by batman on Jul 1, 2024 8:21:37 GMT
No, I don't think I'm confusing it with Knaresborough, I'm just recalling a previous profile of the seat, written by Robert. I haven't really kept up to date with local elections in Ripon since then. As it happens, I have been to Ripon but never to Knaresborough, and it looks like a pretty town I ought to visit one day.
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