Rotherham

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Sheffield Hallam is likely to be Liberal Democrat or Labour for the foreseeable future, both need to work hard to keep the wealthy socially concerned voting for them.

Rotherham is not socially concerned, its not wealthy enough for that. Labour need to work it to keep the right at bay.

Labout can keep winning both but it needs to put the ground work in both seats to do so.

[stb12]

I'll add a poll as requested as it doesn't do any harm but I have to say I personally don't see even the remotest chance of this changing hands, not under these national circumstances

Is the idea a Reform gain?

[Ron Swanson]

Rewind aren't getting anywhere near, here.

Farage might win Clacton but the vast majority of their candidates are paper, cardboard at a push. Some UKIP and Green candidates worked their arse off in 2015 and couldn't break 20% - the idea that a 'party' with no organisation, no branch structure, no data... no f**k all basically, is going to be swept into a position where they hold any influence, is for the birds.

They could only muster up candidates for 10% of the seats in the local elections in West Yorkshire, six weeks ago. Not sure what South Yorkshire was like, but I'd wager it was fairly similar.

[Deleted]

Jun 17, 2024 12:37:05 GMT stb12 said:

I'll add a poll as requested as it doesn't do any harm but I have to say I personally don't see even the remotest chance of this changing hands, not under these national circumstances

Is the idea a Reform gain?

There's a remote possibility that Reform "unite the right" and that Labour's vote is static because it loses some of the 9% Muslim population abandoning the party over Gaza while pulling back some 2019 Tory switchers here. There's also nods to the area's flirtations with UKIP in the 2010s, with the party cracking 30% in 2015. 

[The Bishop]

A reminder that this was one of THE top targets for UKIP in 2015, and had been for a while beforehand. They were still clearly beaten.

[Ron Swanson]

Jun 17, 2024 15:09:22 GMT The Bishop said:

A reminder that this was one of THE top targets for UKIP in 2015, and had been for a while beforehand. They were still clearly beaten.

Yes, Jane Collins had stood in the by-election and got a good vote share, was a sitting MEP and I recall them having had success at council level becoming the principal opposition.

[Deleted]

2024 Reform are not 2015 UKIP. They are entirely different parties doing entirely different things and actually appealing to very different voter bases. The intervention of Farage has brought them a little closer together, but not much. This is also a Labour Party that is not led by someone as hated Corbyn, or who inspires as much worry as Miliband. Reform UK's only possible path to victory here is a postponed poll, with Labour and Tory both cocking up their nominations for the repeat

[mattbewilson]

Jun 17, 2024 18:18:38 GMT @europeanlefty said:

2024 Reform are not 2015 UKIP. They are entirely different parties doing entirely different things and actually appealing to very different voter bases. The intervention of Garage has brought them a little closer together, but not much. This is also a Labour Party that is not led by someone as hated Corbyn, or who inspires as much worry as Miliband. Reform UK's only possible path to victory here is a postponed poll, with Labour and Tory both cocking up their nominations for the repeat

I would agree with you up to everything you've said but I would say I've noticed more reform votes while out knocking than I ever noticed UKIP.

Just for balance though, Ive less people I know personally voting reform than I did UKIP.

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Jun 17, 2024 19:31:46 GMT mattbewilson said:

Jun 17, 2024 18:18:38 GMT @europeanlefty said:

2024 Reform are not 2015 UKIP. They are entirely different parties doing entirely different things and actually appealing to very different voter bases. The intervention of Garage has brought them a little closer together, but not much. This is also a Labour Party that is not led by someone as hated Corbyn, or who inspires as much worry as Miliband. Reform UK's only possible path to victory here is a postponed poll, with Labour and Tory both cocking up their nominations for the repeat

I would agree with you up to everything you've said but I would say I've noticed more reform votes while out knocking than I ever noticed UKIP.

Just for balance though, Ive less people I know personally voting reform than I did UKIP.

Different demographic of voters?

[Deleted]

I've voted 'Ref gain' to broaden the debate. I'm still interested to hear if anyone has theories about why Labour won here by 11,000 votes in 1983 but only a third of that in 2019. I compare this seat to Youngstown (Mahoning County, Ohio, which Trump flipped in 2020 after losing it in 2016) not because I'm a US politics obsessive but because, in both cases, the steel industry was central to the left's marked success in the context of a landslide against them nationally. With the steel industry's decline, you'd logically expect levels of trade union uptake to have fallen here, just as in Youngstown, Ohio, due to deindustrialisation. Maybe 2024 is too much of a Labour-friendly environment nationally for this seat to show further signs of trending rightwards, but that doesn't mean it isn't happening. 

2024 Reform is not UKIP? That's correct, Reform is polling 18% while UKIP got 13%.

[batman]

Why would you vote for a clearly wrong option just to broaden the debate? You seem to have periods of making broadly sensible comments and then periods when they really don’t add up at all. And some forum members would say that that’s being polite

[batman]

It is incredibly obvious that Labour is at present heading for a whopping majority. But all you see is exceptions and weird results where safe Labour seats are lost or in danger. Of course there are always results in any general election which go against the grain, we all know that. But you are ramping non-Labour opponents in far more seats than can possibly be justified when the party is in an AVERAGE opinion lead of over 20%, a situation no party has been in since 1997 (when polling was less accurate than it was today, but nevertheless the Tories were humiliated).

[YL]

Jun 18, 2024 2:42:46 GMT @weld said:

I've voted 'Ref gain' to broaden the debate. I'm still interested to hear if anyone has theories about why Labour won here by 11,000 votes in 1983 but only a third of that in 2019. I compare this seat to Youngstown (Mahoning County, Ohio, which Trump flipped in 2020 after losing it in 2016) not because I'm a US politics obsessive but because, in both cases, the steel industry was central to the left's marked success in the context of a landslide against them nationally. With the steel industry's decline, you'd logically expect levels of trade union uptake to have fallen here, just as in Youngstown, Ohio, due to deindustrialisation. Maybe 2024 is too much of a Labour-friendly environment nationally for this seat to show further signs of trending rightwards, but that doesn't mean it isn't happening. 

2024 Reform is not UKIP? That's correct, Reform is polling 18% while UKIP got 13%.

No-one is disputing that this constituency is less favourable to Labour, relatively, than it was in 1983, but even in 2019, not a great year for Labour in this sort of area, to put it mildly, Labour got 41% of the vote. And while there may be common features between US political trends and UK ones, there are also substantial differences. Rotherham is not Youngstown.

[Deleted]

Jun 18, 2024 7:05:23 GMT YL said:

Jun 18, 2024 2:42:46 GMT @weld said:

I've voted 'Ref gain' to broaden the debate. I'm still interested to hear if anyone has theories about why Labour won here by 11,000 votes in 1983 but only a third of that in 2019. I compare this seat to Youngstown (Mahoning County, Ohio, which Trump flipped in 2020 after losing it in 2016) not because I'm a US politics obsessive but because, in both cases, the steel industry was central to the left's marked success in the context of a landslide against them nationally. With the steel industry's decline, you'd logically expect levels of trade union uptake to have fallen here, just as in Youngstown, Ohio, due to deindustrialisation. Maybe 2024 is too much of a Labour-friendly environment nationally for this seat to show further signs of trending rightwards, but that doesn't mean it isn't happening. 

2024 Reform is not UKIP? That's correct, Reform is polling 18% while UKIP got 13%.

No-one is disputing that this constituency is less favourable to Labour, relatively, than it was in 1983, but even in 2019, not a great year for Labour in this sort of area, to put it mildly, Labour got 41% of the vote. And while there may be common features between US political trends and UK ones, there are also substantial differences. Rotherham is not Youngstown.

Fair enough. I don't think Youngstown has a nearly 10% Muslim population. 

[No Offence Alan]

Jun 18, 2024 5:37:54 GMT batman said:

It is incredibly obvious that Labour is at present heading for a whopping majority. But all you see is exceptions and weird results where safe Labour seats are lost or in danger. Of course there are always results in any general election which go against the grain, we all know that. But you are ramping non-Labour opponents in far more seats than can possibly be justified when the party is in an AVERAGE opinion lead of over 20%, a situation no party has been in since 1997 (when polling was less accurate than it was today, but nevertheless the Tories were humiliated).

On pb.com yesterday, 2 threads were run on the just 8 seats which were Labour in 2019 and are less than 1/10 in the betting.
Bristol Central, Canterbury, Dewsbury & Batley, Hartlepool, Islington North, Leicester East, Rochdale, and Sheffield Hallam.
And some of these are still very short odds for a Labour win.

[batman]

Jun 18, 2024 7:07:13 GMT @weld said:

Jun 18, 2024 7:05:23 GMT YL said:

No-one is disputing that this constituency is less favourable to Labour, relatively, than it was in 1983, but even in 2019, not a great year for Labour in this sort of area, to put it mildly, Labour got 41% of the vote. And while there may be common features between US political trends and UK ones, there are also substantial differences. Rotherham is not Youngstown.

Fair enough. I don't think Youngstown has a nearly 10% Muslim population. 

Sorry to keep on at you, but I feel it's necessary. You appear to assume that literally almost all Muslims will vote against Labour. But there has been a perfectly respectable poll showing that 63% still intend to vote Labour. That is down on previous figures, but does not portend huge losses for Labour, indeed pro-Gaza independents will have to do much better than this poll implies to win any seats. Any Labour canvasser here who has any relevant experience (that'll be most of us) will tell you that there are still plenty of Muslims who are sticking with Labour despite the obvious anger a minority does have. 

[davidh]

Jun 18, 2024 5:37:54 GMT batman said:

It is incredibly obvious that Labour is at present heading for a whopping majority. But all you see is exceptions and weird results where safe Labour seats are lost or in danger. Of course there are always results in any general election which go against the grain, we all know that. But you are ramping non-Labour opponents in far more seats than can possibly be justified when the party is in an AVERAGE opinion lead of over 20%, a situation no party has been in since 1997 (when polling was less accurate than it was today, but nevertheless the Tories were humiliated).

Labour enjoyed average poll leads of around 20% in the first half of May 2001 too. Just for the record.

FWIW, I think Rotherham would be a prime candidate for a Reform gain mid-way through a Starmer first term were a by-election to occur: loyalty to Labour is way down on what it once was and local disillusionment with their performance at council level is significant - hence the performance of other parties there over the last decade or so - but that's not the landscape of this election.

[Deleted]

Jun 18, 2024 7:07:13 GMT @weld said:

Jun 18, 2024 7:05:23 GMT YL said:

No-one is disputing that this constituency is less favourable to Labour, relatively, than it was in 1983, but even in 2019, not a great year for Labour in this sort of area, to put it mildly, Labour got 41% of the vote. And while there may be common features between US political trends and UK ones, there are also substantial differences. Rotherham is not Youngstown.

Fair enough. I don't think Youngstown has a nearly 10% Muslim population. 

What is this ridiculous obsession with a country on the other side of the world whose political culture is almost entirely dissimilar to ours?

[bjornhattan]

Jun 18, 2024 7:07:13 GMT @weld said:

Jun 18, 2024 7:05:23 GMT YL said:

No-one is disputing that this constituency is less favourable to Labour, relatively, than it was in 1983, but even in 2019, not a great year for Labour in this sort of area, to put it mildly, Labour got 41% of the vote. And while there may be common features between US political trends and UK ones, there are also substantial differences. Rotherham is not Youngstown.

Fair enough. I don't think Youngstown has a nearly 10% Muslim population. 

Quite. And the population of Rotherham is quite a lot more than 47% white!

[rcronald]

Jun 18, 2024 13:20:18 GMT bjornhattan said:

Jun 18, 2024 7:07:13 GMT @weld said:

Fair enough. I don't think Youngstown has a nearly 10% Muslim population. 

Quite. And the population of Rotherham is quite a lot more than 47% white!

Tbf to @weld, he’s probably talking about Mahoning county rather than Youngstown itself.