Rotherham

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Jun 9, 2024 9:44:49 GMT The Bishop said:

Rotherham itself certainly has a few nicer areas.

Though we in Sheffield always pretend it doesn't.

[YL]

Jun 9, 2024 9:49:40 GMT andrewp said:

Jun 9, 2024 9:43:18 GMT batman said:

I was very much under the impression that the middle-class areas with nice villages were in the Rother Valley constituency, and not this one, but I am happy to be corrected on this if I am wrong.

You got your paragraphs

The most significant middle class area of Rotherham is Broom near Rotherham Hospital. It’s actually split between Rotherham and Rother Valley constituencies, but there is a perfectly pleasant nice area within Rotherham constituency. My grandparents lived in Rotherham, my grand mother all her life, in Broom and then Wickersley.

The most middle class area of this constituency now is probably the new OrgreaveWaverley development.

[YL]

Jun 9, 2024 5:53:44 GMT @weld said:

Local election results using the highest vote method (wards where Labour won the most votes are in bold):

Boston Castle - 37% Ind, 30% Labour
Brinsworth - 55% LD, 31% Labour
Dalton & Thrybergh - 50% Ind, 31% Labour
Greasbrough - 47% Labour, 46% Ind
Keppel - 42% Labour 38% Ind
Rotherham East - 44% Labour, 29% Green
Rotherham West - 50% Ind, 30% Labour
Wickersley North - 51% Labour, 20% Conservative

Rotherham constituency: 38% Labour 27% Ind, 13% Green, 11% Conservative, 11% others

You've missed out Rother Vale. (Yes, Rother Vale ward, which covers Waverley, Catcliffe and Treeton, is not in Rother Valley constituency.)

It's also worth pointing out that the Independents here are not a particularly coherent grouping, and as elsewhere the "Gaza independents" (Boston Castle and Rotherham West, though not the one actually elected in the latter; I guess they'd have done quite well in Rotherham East as well had one stood) probably benefitted substantially from differential turnout.

[Deleted]

Jun 9, 2024 13:10:34 GMT johnloony said:

Jun 9, 2024 10:36:01 GMT greenhert said:

Back to the case at hand. In the absence of a Conservative candidate, surely candidates other than just Labour and Reform will benefit-but to what extent?

The notional Conservative vote in 2019 was 31%. If there were a Conservative candidate, about 10% would swing to Labour anyway, leaving 20%. About 5% would swing to Reform anyway. The remaining 15% would either vote Reform or not vote. So a result  ...

... will instead be

Lab 66%
Reform 25%
Others 11%
Reform

If you look at the (albeit a single) recent Times poll, we have Labour 37%, Reform 19%, and Conservative 18%. That helps Labour nationally and tremendously, but that Reform - Conservative split is irrelevant here because there is no Tory candidate. Combine the Reform and Tory scores, and you get 37%, which matches Labour's headline share.

I don't think Labour will exceed 60% here - they would need an almost 20% increase since 2019. But, you may say, we know seats where Labour can expect something like that or close to it - Worthing East & Shoreham, Worthing West, Cities of London & Westminster, Chelsea & Fulham are all decent candidates for 15%+ Labour increases. Will that happen here? I don't think so. Other polls have shown Labour losing 4% of its 2019 vote to REFUK - that might (might is the operative phrase) be higher in seats like this. 

For Labour to get 60%+, I'd imagine they can't afford to lose any of the c10% Muslim community here over the Gaza issue. Can they hold most of that? I don't know. Will they keep all of them on their side? I doubt it. I doubt it very much honestly.

[batman]

We don’t need 60% and you’re probably right that we won’t obtain it

[Tony Otim]

Of course, not all Conservative voters are automatically going to back Reform in the absence of a Conservative candidate. A decent proportion will, but we might also see a boost for the Lib Dems or perhaps the Yorkshire Party as well. Some may even end up voting Labour...

[devolutionist]

Does anybody on here live in the constituency, if so, what leaflets have you received?

[Deleted]

Can we get a poll AdminSTB. There is a very small chance the seat changes hands.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Better still, can we have someone test the water outside @weld 's house as there's clearly something in it.

[Deleted]

Jun 17, 2024 11:52:16 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Better still, can we have someone test the water outside @weld 's house as there's clearly something in it.

If you compare 1983 to 2019, in the former Labour won by 11,000 votes, and in 2019 it was ... 3,000. What's changed? Like I said, The UK's Mahoning County, Ohio.

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Jun 17, 2024 11:49:09 GMT @weld said:

Can we get a poll AdminSTB . There is a very small chance the seat changes hands.

stb12

[gwynthegriff]

Jun 17, 2024 11:54:30 GMT @weld said:

Jun 17, 2024 11:52:16 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Better still, can we have someone test the water outside @weld 's house as there's clearly something in it.

If you compare 1983 to 2019, in the former Labour won by 11,000 votes, and in 2019 it was ... 3,000. What's changed? Like I said, The UK's Mahoning County, Ohio.

Manvers Main.

Tinsley Yard.

[Deleted]

Jun 17, 2024 12:04:20 GMT gwynthegriff said:

Jun 17, 2024 11:54:30 GMT @weld said:

If you compare 1983 to 2019, in the former Labour won by 11,000 votes, and in 2019 it was ... 3,000. What's changed? Like I said, The UK's Mahoning County, Ohio.

Manvers Main.

Tinsley Yard.

I'd Rother you didn't make these references. 

[markgoodair]

If Labour ever lost Rotherham it may as well pack up and go home.

[Deleted]

Jun 17, 2024 12:07:46 GMT markgoodair said:

If Labour ever lost Rotherham it may as well pack up and go home.

Why? Long-term, Sheffield Hallam is a better prospect (I'm talking over 15-20 years). A simple comparison to 1983 shows you this seat is trending right long-term.

[markgoodair]

Jun 17, 2024 12:08:49 GMT @weld said:

Jun 17, 2024 12:07:46 GMT markgoodair said:

If Labour ever lost Rotherham it may as well pack up and go home.

Why? Long-term, Sheffield Hallam is a better prospect (I'm talking over the 15-20 years). A simple comparison to 1983 shows you this seat is trending right long-term.

Shafffield Hallam is the second wealthiest constituency in the country after Kensington & Chelsea . Despite also being in South Yorkshire the two seats are chalk and cheese.

[Deleted]

Jun 17, 2024 12:11:50 GMT markgoodair said:

Jun 17, 2024 12:08:49 GMT @weld said:

Why? Long-term, Sheffield Hallam is a better prospect (I'm talking over the 15-20 years). A simple comparison to 1983 shows you this seat is trending right long-term.

Shafffield Hallam is the second wealthiest constituency in the country after Kensington & Chelsea . Despite also being in South Yorkshire the two seats are chalk and cheese.

Yeah but social class isn't the predictor of voting it once was. It's 2024, not 1964. Hallam is very public sector influenced. 

[batman]

It is going to be more of a predictor in 2024 than it was in 2019 especially amongst the White population. Even amongst voters of Indian heritage Labour will do much better amongst less affluent Southall Hindus than amongst more affluent Harrow East ones.

[markgoodair]

Jun 17, 2024 12:13:33 GMT @weld said:

Jun 17, 2024 12:11:50 GMT markgoodair said:

Shafffield Hallam is the second wealthiest constituency in the country after Kensington & Chelsea . Despite also being in South Yorkshire the two seats are chalk and cheese.

Yeah but social class isn't the predictor of voting it once was. It's 2024, not 1964. Hallam is very public sector influenced. 

let ne guess you haven't been to either constituency ?

[Deleted]

Jun 17, 2024 12:21:03 GMT markgoodair said:

Jun 17, 2024 12:13:33 GMT @weld said:

Yeah but social class isn't the predictor of voting it once was. It's 2024, not 1964. Hallam is very public sector influenced. 

let ne guess you haven't been to either constituency ?

As discussed elsewhere, Mark, my family lived around Penistone for 15 years, so I've been around all over South Yorks. Aren't you from Wakefield or something?