Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 15,745
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Post by Sibboleth on Jun 9, 2024 8:34:55 GMT
General Elections are not (for the thousandth time it sometimes feels) projected local elections.
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Post by observer on Jun 9, 2024 8:36:04 GMT
Farage is part of the "Liberal right"? Lol. Without a doubt: you need to understand the term 'liberal'. I was using it in the time-honoured and correct sense
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,205
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 9, 2024 9:22:59 GMT
The actual meaning of the word "liberal" has been hotly contested far longer than you have been alive - your "correct" definition is certainly not the undisputed truth.
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Post by carlton43 on Jun 9, 2024 9:32:15 GMT
I think that some people, not just weld, are getting a little over-excited at the slightest hint of a development which might disturb the hitherto unbroken sunshine that has so far been Labour's general election campaign, in certain constituencies. Of course there will be some results which are better than average for Labour, and some worse than average, even in the event that UNS made some sort of a comeback (it won't). But there will be very, very few constituencies which will see a decline in Labour's share of the vote, or see their vote entirely static. Most polls which have seriously examined these matters, for most of the last 2 & a half years, have shown Labour doing disproportionately well in mostly white working-class constituencies, even though it is clear that Labour is attracting a lot of middle-class votes for the first time too. Rotherham is still a mostly white working-class constituency and has very few voters who can be accurately regarded as middle-class, although it does have a 9% or so Muslim minority. As such it is a seat where the expectation must be of Labour's share of the vote to rise quite a lot and the failure of the Conservative Party to put up a candidate will not alter that; although more of its voters would be likely to vote Reform than Labour, of course some will be added to the Labour total on top of those who would have voted Labour anyway. Labour does not have candidate problems and the demography of the seat is not conducive to a successful challenge. European Lefty is more on the right lines than weld in this instance. Of course the Workers' Party is standing, but there is no evidence that they will poll strongly enough in the vast majority of constituencies to trouble Labour to any serious degree. Indeed Labour is more likely to experience difficulty from various independents in a small number of seats with very high Muslim populations than they are at the hands of the WPB. I do expect a very small number of Labour or notionally Labour seats to fall in this election, including Bristol Central, Islington North and perhaps 2-3 seats with particularly strong Muslim populations (Batley & Dewsbury looks most at risk, and possibly the odd Birmingham seat or Bradford West), but those who are foretelling doom for Labour in more than a very small number of seats are going to be proved wrong. There will obviously be some seats which will see more modest swings to Labour than others (Pendle & Harrow East would be my personal favourites for that), but if that's the case in any serious number of seats there will inevitably be some really huge & largely unforeseen swings which gain apparently unwinnable ones. So, I don't really expect Labour to be challenged all that closely here, although Reform should be able to manage a goodly share given the absence of the Conservatives. May I recommend paragraphs old friend? Rotherham does have a number of middle class areas with nice villages and substantial old town houses. But the mood this year is for a return to traditional norms of a solid Labour seat with a larger majority. In future a Reform type party could build quite a bridgehead but this is not that year.
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Post by batman on Jun 9, 2024 9:43:18 GMT
I was very much under the impression that the middle-class areas with nice villages were in the Rother Valley constituency, and not this one, but I am happy to be corrected on this if I am wrong. You got your paragraphs
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,205
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 9, 2024 9:44:49 GMT
Rotherham itself certainly has a few nicer areas.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jun 9, 2024 9:44:50 GMT
I think that some people, not just weld, are getting a little over-excited at the slightest hint of a development which might disturb the hitherto unbroken sunshine that has so far been Labour's general election campaign, in certain constituencies. Of course there will be some results which are better than average for Labour, and some worse than average, even in the event that UNS made some sort of a comeback (it won't). But there will be very, very few constituencies which will see a decline in Labour's share of the vote, or see their vote entirely static. Most polls which have seriously examined these matters, for most of the last 2 & a half years, have shown Labour doing disproportionately well in mostly white working-class constituencies, even though it is clear that Labour is attracting a lot of middle-class votes for the first time too. Rotherham is still a mostly white working-class constituency and has very few voters who can be accurately regarded as middle-class, although it does have a 9% or so Muslim minority. As such it is a seat where the expectation must be of Labour's share of the vote to rise quite a lot and the failure of the Conservative Party to put up a candidate will not alter that; although more of its voters would be likely to vote Reform than Labour, of course some will be added to the Labour total on top of those who would have voted Labour anyway. Labour does not have candidate problems and the demography of the seat is not conducive to a successful challenge. European Lefty is more on the right lines than weld in this instance. Of course the Workers' Party is standing, but there is no evidence that they will poll strongly enough in the vast majority of constituencies to trouble Labour to any serious degree. Indeed Labour is more likely to experience difficulty from various independents in a small number of seats with very high Muslim populations than they are at the hands of the WPB. I do expect a very small number of Labour or notionally Labour seats to fall in this election, including Bristol Central, Islington North and perhaps 2-3 seats with particularly strong Muslim populations (Batley & Dewsbury looks most at risk, and possibly the odd Birmingham seat or Bradford West), but those who are foretelling doom for Labour in more than a very small number of seats are going to be proved wrong. There will obviously be some seats which will see more modest swings to Labour than others (Pendle & Harrow East would be my personal favourites for that), but if that's the case in any serious number of seats there will inevitably be some really huge & largely unforeseen swings which gain apparently unwinnable ones. So, I don't really expect Labour to be challenged all that closely here, although Reform should be able to manage a goodly share given the absence of the Conservatives. May I recommend paragraphs old friend? Rotherham does have a number of middle class areas with nice villages and substantial old town houses. But the mood this year is for a return to traditional norms of a solid Labour seat with a larger majority. In future a Reform type party could build quite a bridgehead but this is not that year. Rother Valley is a county constituency after all. Some of the villages in that seat and Bassetlaw are very attractive.
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Post by andrewp on Jun 9, 2024 9:49:40 GMT
I was very much under the impression that the middle-class areas with nice villages were in the Rother Valley constituency, and not this one, but I am happy to be corrected on this if I am wrong. You got your paragraphs The most significant middle class area of Rotherham is Broom near Rotherham Hospital. It’s actually split between Rotherham and Rother Valley constituencies, but there is a perfectly pleasant nice area within Rotherham constituency. My grandparents lived in Rotherham, my grand mother all her life, in Broom and then Wickersley.
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Post by carlton43 on Jun 9, 2024 9:54:08 GMT
May I recommend paragraphs old friend? Rotherham does have a number of middle class areas with nice villages and substantial old town houses. But the mood this year is for a return to traditional norms of a solid Labour seat with a larger majority. In future a Reform type party could build quite a bridgehead but this is not that year. Rother Valley is a county constituency after all. Some of the villages in that seat and Bassetlaw are very attractive. Correct. Both were once rather gritty and unrelievedly down-market. But a degree of post-mining/industrial gentrification coupled with large volumes of new build private estates are transitioning both seats. Those effects are far more advanced and obvious in Bassetlaw than Rother V. I don't think Bassetlaw is a pushover for Labour but Reform have probably helped a lot. With Reform missing out all the Sheffields and quite a few others, I do wish they had left out Bassetlaw, Rother Valley, Bolsover and N E Derbyshire, to help the right penetration and to curtail an over large Labour majority.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jun 9, 2024 9:55:00 GMT
Rother Valley is a county constituency after all. Some of the villages in that seat and Bassetlaw are very attractive. Correct. Both were once rather gritty and unrelievedly down-market. But a degree of post-mining/industrial gentrification coupled with large volumes of new build private estates are traditioning both seats. Those effects are far more advanced and obvious in Bassetlaw than Rother V. I don't think Bassetlaw is a pushover for Labour but Reform have probably helped a lot. With Reform missing out all the Sheffields and quite a few others, I do wish they had left out Bassetlaw, Rother Valley, Bolsover and N E Derbyshire, to help the right penetration and to curtail an over large Labour majority. Alas, that wouldn't be consistent with destroying the Tory Party.
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Rotherham
Jun 9, 2024 10:00:14 GMT
via mobile
Post by observer on Jun 9, 2024 10:00:14 GMT
The actual meaning of the word "liberal" has been hotly contested far longer than you have been alive - your "correct" definition is certainly not the undisputed truth. Only disputed by those who want to undermine liberalism so that it fits their prejudice and political needs. It is a thing, a philosophy. It can't have it's essence changed just because someone would like its definition to be changed. At the very least it stands for a small state with liberty belonging to the citizen. Not as a gift (for the political class isn't set above us) but as an inalienable right. Farage is a liberal alright...with libertarian tendencies
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Post by carlton43 on Jun 9, 2024 10:02:54 GMT
Correct. Both were once rather gritty and unrelievedly down-market. But a degree of post-mining/industrial gentrification coupled with large volumes of new build private estates are traditioning both seats. Those effects are far more advanced and obvious in Bassetlaw than Rother V. I don't think Bassetlaw is a pushover for Labour but Reform have probably helped a lot. With Reform missing out all the Sheffields and quite a few others, I do wish they had left out Bassetlaw, Rother Valley, Bolsover and N E Derbyshire, to help the right penetration and to curtail an over large Labour majority. Alas, that wouldn't be consistent with destroying the Tory Party. No it wouldn't and I can be seen to be inconsistent in this advocacy. But Labour are going to win and win with a large majority. That is now ingested into my outlook and for nearly a year I have had a post-GE outlook except when very irritated by the Conservatives. They will be beaten and they will be severely punished and that is enough now for me. I fear Reform are probably not the appropriate long term vehicle for transition to a new politics. I hope they are but my expectations are modest. That party will help the transition but we must preserve the genuine right wingers in parliament and hold onto those bridgeheads made in East Midlands/Yorkshire in former Labour heartlands. I see a need for a quite nuanced approach now we get close to the final result.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,205
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 9, 2024 10:03:00 GMT
To repeat, "social liberalism" was a thing long before you were born observer - there really is no point continuing this discussion if you are simply going to deny reality.
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Rotherham
Jun 9, 2024 10:10:34 GMT
via mobile
Post by observer on Jun 9, 2024 10:10:34 GMT
To repeat, "social liberalism" was a thing long before you were born observer - there really is no point continuing this discussion if you are simply going to deny reality. Yes, but the 'New Liberalism' was a move away from Gladstonian liberalism while keeping the name. Just semantics. A true liberal believes in the primacy of the citizen vis a vis the state, a small state, equality before the law, free speech, a liberal constitution - and the state adhering to the constitution. Many 'libetals' seem to think it is about 'being in the middle ', being 'nice'. It is none of those things. Farage is a true liberal and it is telling that you don't want to consider that
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,205
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 9, 2024 10:13:14 GMT
No, that is your *opinion* and that is all it is. No matter how strongly held.
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Rotherham
Jun 9, 2024 10:14:26 GMT
via mobile
Post by observer on Jun 9, 2024 10:14:26 GMT
No, that is your *opinion* and that is all it is. No matter how strongly held. You can't just redefine something to meet the exigencies of the moment
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,538
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Post by john07 on Jun 9, 2024 10:33:52 GMT
No, that is your *opinion* and that is all it is. No matter how strongly held. You can't just redefine something to meet the exigencies of the moment Or define it to meet the strange goings on in your head.
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Rotherham
Jun 9, 2024 10:35:28 GMT
via mobile
Post by observer on Jun 9, 2024 10:35:28 GMT
You can't just redefine something to meet the exigencies of the moment Or define it to meet the strange goings on in your head. Personal abuse. Again! The sign of an empty head. An illiberal mind
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Rotherham
Jun 9, 2024 10:36:01 GMT
via mobile
Post by greenhert on Jun 9, 2024 10:36:01 GMT
Back to the case at hand. In the absence of a Conservative candidate, surely candidates other than just Labour and Reform will benefit-but to what extent?
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jun 9, 2024 11:05:17 GMT
In 2019 Brexit and the Conservatives got 49.8% between them (Labour won with 41.3%). Reform won't be that high but could easily hit 30%. 35% on a really good day?
Despite the political turmoil in Rotherham, Labour have never really been challenged here and I don't think that'll change this time.
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