Rotherham

[Deleted]

Jun 8, 2024 15:05:02 GMT Sibboleth said:

This isn't exactly the sort of constituency where I would expect the Labour vote to be static or to fall from 2019. If the Labour vote nationally is in the 40s, they'll do rather better than that here. It is also the sort where the Conservative vote from 2019 was going to completely crater anyway.

... which could help Reform depending on how hard they work it. I agree they're likely to be up a bit here, but it's still worth watching because they could lose votes among Muslims in this seat. I'll bow down to any local knowledge here though. 

[right]

Jun 8, 2024 8:33:08 GMT davidh said:

Jun 8, 2024 8:00:11 GMT observer said:

This shows the weakness of Reform's policy (?) of centralisation with weak/non-existent ground forces.
The seat is winnable but probably won't be won as they will have few leafletters and canvassers

That's not their strategy. Reform is not particularly bothered about winning seats. Their long-term game (which could happen within 2-3 years now), is to take over the Tories and remodel it in their image. That could credibly happen either by direct overtake on the right, by active merger-and-takeover from within, or by an electoral pact in which they become the dominant force.  Winning votes is far more important to any of those routes than winning individual seats - especially if winning one seat means sacrificing votes in hundreds of others.

They are playing to form a government, not to have occasional scattered MPs. They have a path to that goal, which is more than the Lib Dems do.

They would still benefit from having ground troops for those aims. The centralisation isn't driven by long term strategy, but Farage's distaste fit criticism.

[right]

Jun 8, 2024 10:18:51 GMT observer said:

Yes, I accept they are an insurgent force and that Farage is a bigger asset than a large number of activists.
But he has led -effectively - a number of pop-up parties.
What if he falls under a bus? The liberal right can't go on forever depending on Farage. At the very least he is entitled to a rest sometimes.
The old parties have grassroots which means they have an activist base which gives them 'bottom'. They can keep going through bad times as well as good.
Concentration on Farage will work well for now. But, if Reform's long-term strategy works and they are knocking on the door of power on 2029, they will find they need leaflets, canvassers and a GOTV operation. At grassroots level.
The liberal right needs to organise for the long haul

There's also a very obvious target for any terrorist who wants to kill off the right. The Netherlands has shown that won't be permanent, but it could work for a couple of election cycle.

[Deleted]

Jun 8, 2024 15:53:11 GMT right said:

Jun 8, 2024 8:33:08 GMT davidh said:

That's not their strategy. Reform is not particularly bothered about winning seats. Their long-term game (which could happen within 2-3 years now), is to take over the Tories and remodel it in their image. That could credibly happen either by direct overtake on the right, by active merger-and-takeover from within, or by an electoral pact in which they become the dominant force.  Winning votes is far more important to any of those routes than winning individual seats - especially if winning one seat means sacrificing votes in hundreds of others.

They are playing to form a government, not to have occasional scattered MPs. They have a path to that goal, which is more than the Lib Dems do.

They would still benefit from having ground troops for those aims. The centralisation isn't driven by long term strategy, but Farage's distaste fit criticism.

Fuhrerprinzip innit?

[devolutionist]

Jun 8, 2024 10:18:51 GMT observer said:

Yes, I accept they are an insurgent force and that Farage is a bigger asset than a large number of activists.
But he has led -effectively - a number of pop-up parties.

Technically just the two parties isn't it?

UKIP + Brexit Party which was renamed as Reform.

[right]

Jun 8, 2024 9:41:30 GMT @weld said:

Reform are to the Tories in 2024 what the SDP were to Labour in 1981.

To a point. They are pulling away not towards the centre.

[john07]

Jun 8, 2024 5:20:27 GMT minionofmidas said:

Jun 8, 2024 0:46:33 GMT riccimarsh said:

This must be the first time that the Greens have more candidates than the Conservatives and Labour in England??

No, they're missing about a dozen seats.

Edit: just noticed the "England" in there, are those all in Scotland or sthg?

The Greens have separate parties in Scotland and (Northern) Ireland from that in England and Wales.

[right]

Jun 8, 2024 15:57:03 GMT @weld said:

Jun 8, 2024 15:53:11 GMT right said:

They would still benefit from having ground troops for those aims. The centralisation isn't driven by long term strategy, but Farage's distaste fit criticism.

Fuhrerprinzip innit?

Sadly

It happens to many politicians who stay around for a while. They achieve much more than the activists around them and yet they feel held down by their seemingly petty objections.

And in the end it is the politicians who suffer from their lack of perspective.

[johnloony]

Maybe I missed it, but has anyone found out why the Conservative candidate withdrew? And, for that matter, when? Not a case of failing to get the paperwork in, but actively deciding not to stand. Within the last few days there has been a bit of fantasy unrealistic speculation about a number of Conservative candidate defecting to Reform, or suddenly withdrawing (when it's too late to get a replacement nominated) or whatever... is this actually one of those cases in real life rather than in Twitter fantasyland?

[Deleted]

In the last pre-Brexit local elections, if UKIP had done a few points better in 2016, they would have won overall control of Rotherham council.

But that was eight years ago, you say. What about this year's locals (even though Reform didn't stand as much as UKIP once did here)?

In the wards making up the new Rotherham seat, Labour lost three seats to independents, while they gained a seat from the Lib Dems.

[Deleted]

Can we return to sanity here please? The Tories were going to crash in this seat anyway, and Reform are not going to get over 45% of the vote which is probably where the bar for them winning the seat would be. This will be a routine safe Labour hold with an increased majority

[Deleted]

Local election results using the highest vote method (wards where Labour won the most votes are in bold):

Boston Castle - 37% Ind, 30% Labour
Brinsworth - 55% LD, 31% Labour
Dalton & Thrybergh - 50% Ind, 31% Labour
Greasbrough - 47% Labour, 46% Ind
Keppel - 42% Labour 38% Ind
Rotherham East - 44% Labour, 29% Green
Rotherham West - 50% Ind, 30% Labour
Wickersley North - 51% Labour, 20% Conservative

Rotherham constituency: 38% Labour 27% Ind, 13% Green, 11% Conservative, 11% others

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

People vote independent for different reasons, not because they are only right wing.

[Deleted]

LAB 41
RFM 39
WPGB 8
LDEM 5
YORKS 3
GRN 3
IND 1

[YL]

Jun 9, 2024 5:55:36 GMT Defenestrated Fipplebox said:

People vote independent for different reasons, not because they are only right wing.

The Independents who won seats here mostly aren’t right-wing.

[Deleted]

Jun 9, 2024 6:22:15 GMT @weld said:

LAB 41
RFM 39
WPGB 8
LDEM 5
YORKS 3
GRN 3
IND 1

If that's meant to be a prediction then, respectfully, what have you been smoking?

[batman]

I think that some people, not just weld, are getting a little over-excited at the slightest hint of a development which might disturb the hitherto unbroken sunshine that has so far been Labour's general election campaign, in certain constituencies. Of course there will be some results which are better than average for Labour, and some worse than average, even in the event that UNS made some sort of a comeback (it won't). But there will be very, very few constituencies which will see a decline in Labour's share of the vote, or see their vote entirely static. Most polls which have seriously examined these matters, for most of the last 2 & a half years, have shown Labour doing disproportionately well in mostly white working-class constituencies, even though it is clear that Labour is attracting a lot of middle-class votes for the first time too. Rotherham is still a mostly white working-class constituency and has very few voters who can be accurately regarded as middle-class, although it does have a 9% or so Muslim minority. As such it is a seat where the expectation must be of Labour's share of the vote to rise quite a lot and the failure of the Conservative Party to put up a candidate will not alter that; although more of its voters would be likely to vote Reform than Labour, of course some will be added to the Labour total on top of those who would have voted Labour anyway. Labour does not have candidate problems and the demography of the seat is not conducive to a successful challenge. European Lefty is more on the right lines than weld in this instance. Of course the Workers' Party is standing, but there is no evidence that they will poll strongly enough in the vast majority of constituencies to trouble Labour to any serious degree. Indeed Labour is more likely to experience difficulty from various independents in a small number of seats with very high Muslim populations than they are at the hands of the WPB. I do expect a very small number of Labour or notionally Labour seats to fall in this election, including Bristol Central, Islington North and perhaps 2-3 seats with particularly strong Muslim populations (Batley & Dewsbury looks most at risk, and possibly the odd Birmingham seat or Bradford West), but those who are foretelling doom for Labour in more than a very small number of seats are going to be proved wrong. There will obviously be some seats which will see more modest swings to Labour than others (Pendle & Harrow East would be my personal favourites for that), but if that's the case in any serious number of seats there will inevitably be some really huge & largely unforeseen swings which gain apparently unwinnable ones. So, I don't really expect Labour to be challenged all that closely here, although Reform should be able to manage a goodly share given the absence of the Conservatives.

[cogload]

Farage is part of the "Liberal right"? Lol.

[Deleted]

Jun 9, 2024 8:14:10 GMT batman said:

I think that some people, not just weld, are getting a little over-excited at the slightest hint of a development which might disturb the hitherto unbroken sunshine that has so far been Labour's general election campaign, in certain constituencies. Of course there will be some results which are better than average for Labour, and some worse than average, even in the event that UNS made some sort of a comeback (it won't). But there will be very, very few constituencies which will see a decline in Labour's share of the vote, or see their vote entirely static. Most polls which have seriously examined these matters, for most of the last 2 & a half years, have shown Labour doing disproportionately well in mostly white working-class constituencies, even though it is clear that Labour is attracting a lot of middle-class votes for the first time too. Rotherham is still a mostly white working-class constituency and has very few voters who can be accurately regarded as middle-class, although it does have a 9% or so Muslim minority. As such it is a seat where the expectation must be of Labour's share of the vote to rise quite a lot and the failure of the Conservative Party to put up a candidate will not alter that; although more of its voters would be likely to vote Reform than Labour, of course some will be added to the Labour total on top of those who would have voted Labour anyway. Labour does not have candidate problems and the demography of the seat is not conducive to a successful challenge. European Lefty is more on the right lines than weld in this instance. Of course the Workers' Party is standing, but there is no evidence that they will poll strongly enough in the vast majority of constituencies to trouble Labour to any serious degree. Indeed Labour is more likely to experience difficulty from various independents in a small number of seats with very high Muslim populations than they are at the hands of the WPB. I do expect a very small number of Labour or notionally Labour seats to fall in this election, including Bristol Central, Islington North and perhaps 2-3 seats with particularly strong Muslim populations (Batley & Dewsbury looks most at risk, and possibly the odd Birmingham seat or Bradford West), but those who are foretelling doom for Labour in more than a very small number of seats are going to be proved wrong. There will obviously be some seats which will see more modest swings to Labour than others (Pendle & Harrow East would be my personal favourites for that), but if that's the case in any serious number of seats there will inevitably be some really huge & largely unforeseen swings which gain apparently unwinnable ones. So, I don't really expect Labour to be challenged all that closely here, although Reform should be able to manage a goodly share given the absence of the Conservatives.

You are, of course, correct. I will point out that there is an independent, Ishtiaq Ahmad, who took 15% of the vote in Rotherham West in May.

[Sibboleth]

General Elections are not (for the thousandth time it sometimes feels) projected local elections.