Rotherham

[YL]

Jun 8, 2024 5:20:27 GMT minionofmidas said:

Jun 8, 2024 0:46:33 GMT riccimarsh said:

This must be the first time that the Greens have more candidates than the Conservatives and Labour in England??

No, they're missing about a dozen seats.

Edit: just noticed the "England" in there, are those all in Scotland or sthg?

The Greens are missing one seat in England (Heywood & Middleton North) so the same number as Labour (Chorley). The Tories and Lib Dems are each missing two (Chorley and Rotherham; Chorley and Manchester Rusholme). There are also some Scottish seats with no Green but the Scottish Greens are a separate party.

[Deleted]

I read somewhere that Labour are losing about 4% of their 2019 support to Reform. Couple that with peeling off of Muslim voters in some parts of this seat (particularly Rotherham itself where Respect used to poll Ok), and this could be close particularly if Tories switch en masse to Farage's party. 

[minionofmidas]

Jun 8, 2024 5:34:11 GMT YL said:

Jun 8, 2024 5:20:27 GMT minionofmidas said:

No, they're missing about a dozen seats.

Edit: just noticed the "England" in there, are those all in Scotland or sthg?

The Greens are missing one seat in England (Heywood & Middleton North) so the same number as Labour (Chorley). The Tories and Lib Dems are each missing two (Chorley and Rotherham; Chorley and Manchester Rusholme). There are also some Scottish seats with no Green but the Scottish Greens are a separate party.

i know they are but the tweet i'd seen had summed them

Wait, Greens are standing in Chorley? I approve but wouldn't have expected it.

[batman]

Jun 8, 2024 5:54:55 GMT @weld said:

I read somewhere that Labour are losing about 4% of their 2019 support to Reform. Couple that with peeling off of Muslim voters in some parts of this seat (particularly Rotherham itself where Respect used to poll Ok), and this could be close particularly if Tories switch en masse to Farage's party. 

it's clear that Reform won't get the entire Tory vote. A substantial percentage will vote Labour (probably between 10 & 22%, but possibly slightly more in the actual absence of a Tory candidate), some will vote for other parties & many won't vote at all

[Deleted]

Respect got 8% here in the 2012 by-election, so it's not unrealistic to think the pro-Gaza independents and the Workers' Party could poll that between them.

[right]

For Reform to get the seat they'd need either, probably both and perhaps not even then of a superb candidate and a revulsion with Labour

UKIP had some organisation here so they will probably get a respectable result, but Labour are certainly not riding for a loss

[YL]

Yeah, Reform UK are likely to get the largest share of the Tory scatter and to end up with a very respectable vote share -- I'd guess that they'll be in the 30s -- but it's hard to see them actually challenging for the win unless something goes very wrong with the Labour campaign.

[observer]

This shows the weakness of Reform's policy (?) of centralisation with weak/non-existent ground forces.
The seat is winnable but probably won't be won as they will have few leafletters and canvassers

[YL]

Perhaps this is also a candidate for highest Yorkshire Party share.

[lackeroftalent]

Jun 8, 2024 6:57:38 GMT minionofmidas said:

Jun 8, 2024 5:34:11 GMT YL said:

The Greens are missing one seat in England (Heywood & Middleton North) so the same number as Labour (Chorley). The Tories and Lib Dems are each missing two (Chorley and Rotherham; Chorley and Manchester Rusholme). There are also some Scottish seats with no Green but the Scottish Greens are a separate party.

i know they are but the tweet i'd seen had summed them

Wait, Greens are standing in Chorley? I approve but wouldn't have expected it.

Greens stood against Bercow in Buckingham in 2015 and 2017 and against Hoyle in 2019. It would have been a surprise if they didn't.

[davidh]

Jun 8, 2024 8:00:11 GMT observer said:

This shows the weakness of Reform's policy (?) of centralisation with weak/non-existent ground forces.
The seat is winnable but probably won't be won as they will have few leafletters and canvassers

That's not their strategy. Reform is not particularly bothered about winning seats. Their long-term game (which could happen within 2-3 years now), is to take over the Tories and remodel it in their image. That could credibly happen either by direct overtake on the right, by active merger-and-takeover from within, or by an electoral pact in which they become the dominant force.  Winning votes is far more important to any of those routes than winning individual seats - especially if winning one seat means sacrificing votes in hundreds of others.

They are playing to form a government, not to have occasional scattered MPs. They have a path to that goal, which is more than the Lib Dems do.

[Deleted]

Jun 8, 2024 8:00:11 GMT observer said:

This shows the weakness of Reform's policy (?) of centralisation with weak/non-existent ground forces.
The seat is winnable but probably won't be won as they will have few leafletters and canvassers

Does it? We vote for 'Presidents' these days. Farage being Reform's leader is worth any number of activists. Also, UKIP did have a gaggle of Councillors here a few years ago - maybe some of those people will back Reform here. 

As an aside, I just realised Labour won this seat by 11,000 votes in 1983, compared to barely a fourth of that in 2019. If you want a British equivalent to Mahoning County, Ohio (right trending area anchored by a former steel industry area) that could flip to the right against the grain of the nationwide trend (Trump won Mahoning County, OH, while Clinton won it in 2016). I know it's not always right to compare Farage to Trump, but there are parallels. 

I also noticed Labour only added three seats in Rotherham in 2024 - hardly anything to write home about. 

[carlton43]

Jun 8, 2024 8:33:08 GMT davidh said:

Jun 8, 2024 8:00:11 GMT observer said:

This shows the weakness of Reform's policy (?) of centralisation with weak/non-existent ground forces.
The seat is winnable but probably won't be won as they will have few leafletters and canvassers

That's not their strategy. Reform is not particularly bothered about winning seats. Their long-term game (which could happen within 2-3 years now), is to take over the Tories and remodel it in their image. That could credibly happen either by direct overtake on the right, by active merger-and-takeover from within, or by an electoral pact in which they become the dominant force.  Winning votes is far more important to any of those routes than winning individual seats - especially if winning one seat means sacrificing votes in hundreds of others.

They are playing to form a government, not to have occasional scattered MPs. They have a path to that goal, which is more than the Lib Dems do.

I agree entirely and have expressed the same analysis here repeatedly.  Many members are locked into a narrow formula of what they prefer and what their party's aspiration are.  They just cannot fathom a party that is, at this phase, nearly entirely unconcerned about winning any seats.  The focus is on changing hearts, minds and world view of as many people as possible; disrupting the traditional course of events by depleting vote share of both majors; creating a home for the non-voting 'left behind'; and the short-term major damage to the Conservatives.

They see the Conservatives as the major barrier to an effective  right wing representation, who are serial liars, incompetents and non-performers, and desire to lose two-thirds minimum of them and the destruction of their whole present rationale.  Then I think they might aspire to a reverse takeover through simple 'entryism' to gain membership numbers sufficient to pass/approve the reverse takeover, even against the wishes of the majority of the MPs?  Then a total revamp and relaunch after cleansing Conservative HQ and a purging of even more MPs.  Then business as normal on a new better model.

[Deleted]

Reform are to the Tories in 2024 what the SDP were to Labour in 1981.

[observer]

Yes, I accept they are an insurgent force and that Farage is a bigger asset than a large number of activists.
But he has led -effectively - a number of pop-up parties.
What if he falls under a bus? The liberal right can't go on forever depending on Farage. At the very least he is entitled to a rest sometimes.
The old parties have grassroots which means they have an activist base which gives them 'bottom'. They can keep going through bad times as well as good.
Concentration on Farage will work well for now. But, if Reform's long-term strategy works and they are knocking on the door of power on 2029, they will find they need leaflets, canvassers and a GOTV operation. At grassroots level.
The liberal right needs to organise for the long haul

[Deleted]

Jun 8, 2024 10:18:51 GMT observer said:

Yes, I accept they are an insurgent force and that Farage is a bigger asset than a large number of activists.
But he has led -effectively - a number of pop-up parties.
What if he falls under a bus? The liberal right can't go on forever depending on Farage. At the very least he is entitled to a rest sometimes.
The old parties have grassroots which means they have an activist base which gives them 'bottom'. They can keep going through bad times as well as good.
Concentration on Farage will work well for now. But, if Reform's long-term strategy works and they are knocking on the door of power on 2029, they will find they need leaflets, canvassers and a GOTV operation. At grassroots level.
The liberal right needs to organise for the long haul

You're right, but, like Trump, Farage could hang around for a while. After all, this is his eighth tilt at Westminster in three decades. 

[markgoodair]

William Hill have Labour to win on 1/66 . They aren’t there to lose money .

[observer]

Jun 8, 2024 10:40:44 GMT markgoodair said:

William Hill have Labour to win on 1/66 . They aren’t there to lose money .

It might be worth putting a tenner on Labour and £1.50 on Reform . Err, I'm no expert gambling odds

[ideal4radio]

The 2021 Census puts Rotherham's Muslim population at 9.6%, which is probably not enough to affect Sarah Champion's chances of winning, unless the vast majority of 2019 Tory and Brexit party voters go out and vote Reform ...

[Sibboleth]

This isn't exactly the sort of constituency where I would expect the Labour vote to be static or to fall from 2019. If the Labour vote nationally is in the 40s, they'll do rather better than that here. It is also the sort where the Conservative vote from 2019 was going to completely crater anyway.