stb12
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Post by stb12 on Mar 14, 2024 1:02:46 GMT
North Herefordshire
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Post by John Chanin on Jun 8, 2024 11:36:05 GMT
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 10, 2024 15:30:06 GMT
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nyx
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Post by nyx on Jun 14, 2024 11:38:48 GMT
One of the four primary targets for the Greens, but also the lowest profile of the four- the other three being the one they already hold and the two where the co-leaders are standing. Hardest of the four to win in my opinion.
I'd say they manage to get second place here thanks to the fact that it's not remotely close to being a target for either Labour or the Lib Dems, but winning is a stretch unless it's an extremely poor night for the Tories (sub-20% nationally).
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Post by heslingtonian on Jun 15, 2024 11:32:41 GMT
The Green focus here may confuse the anti-Conservative tactical vote further. Hard to see the Conservatives losing this with a very split Left opposition.
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Post by greenchristian on Jun 17, 2024 7:50:29 GMT
The Green focus here may confuse the anti-Conservative tactical vote further. Hard to see the Conservatives losing this with a very split Left opposition. Why would it confuse the tactical vote? |
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Post by eastmidlandsright on Jun 17, 2024 8:00:20 GMT
The Green focus here may confuse the anti-Conservative tactical vote further. Hard to see the Conservatives losing this with a very split Left opposition. Why would it confuse the tactical vote? Lib Dems were second last time, based on the polls you would think Labour would be second this time and the Greens are targeting it. If you are a broadly left wing voter and just want Wiggin to lose it is far from clear who you should vote for. |
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Post by Merseymike on Jun 17, 2024 8:04:55 GMT
The Green focus here may confuse the anti-Conservative tactical vote further. Hard to see the Conservatives losing this with a very split Left opposition. Why would it confuse the tactical vote? Liberal Democrats or Green or Labour? But at the moment it is very Conservative. |
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Post by greenchristian on Jun 17, 2024 8:12:02 GMT
Why would it confuse the tactical vote? Lib Dems were second last time, based on the polls you would think Labour would be second this time and the Greens are targeting it. If you are a broadly left wing voter and just want Wiggin to lose it is far from clear who you should vote for. In such cases it basically boils down to whether to trust the recommendation of some tactical voting website or to trust what you and your neighbours are seeing on the ground. Given what I know about our campaign here I would be very surprised if the tactical vote here isn't going Green. |
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Post by eastmidlandsright on Jun 17, 2024 8:19:56 GMT
Lib Dems were second last time, based on the polls you would think Labour would be second this time and the Greens are targeting it. If you are a broadly left wing voter and just want Wiggin to lose it is far from clear who you should vote for. In such cases it basically boils down to whether to trust the recommendation of some tactical voting website or to trust what you and your neighbours are seeing on the ground. Given what I know about our campaign here I would be very surprised if the tactical vote here isn't going Green. There are plenty of tactical voters who are not that politically engaged and some of them will be oblivious to any Green surge. On another point this is the kind of the constituency that does not react well to outside activists flooding into the seat and telling the locals how to vote. |
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Post by greenchristian on Jun 17, 2024 8:34:57 GMT
In such cases it basically boils down to whether to trust the recommendation of some tactical voting website or to trust what you and your neighbours are seeing on the ground. Given what I know about our campaign here I would be very surprised if the tactical vote here isn't going Green. There are plenty of tactical voters who are not that politically engaged and some of them will be oblivious to any Green surge. On another point this is the kind of the constituency that does not react well to outside activists flooding into the seat and telling the locals how to vote. If somebody is planning to vote tactically then they are more likely to pay attention to whatever ground campaign is going on in their area than the average voter. Yes, some of them will have managed to miss it over the last 18 months to two years. But it's unlikely that they will be a very large proportion of tactical voters. As for the constituency's reaction to a party using outside activists, what makes this constituency any different than North Shropshire (where the Lib Dem by-election campaign was full of outside activists flooding into the seat)? |
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Post by johnloony on Jun 17, 2024 9:37:18 GMT
Why would it confuse the tactical vote? Lib Dems were second last time, based on the polls you would think Labour would be second this time and the Greens are targeting it. If you are a broadly left wing voter and just want Wiggin to lose it is far from clear who you should vote for. Sensible people should forget about the fake snake oil,religion of Tactical Voting, and vote for the party whose policies they support. |
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Post by eastmidlandsright on Jun 17, 2024 9:42:28 GMT
There are plenty of tactical voters who are not that politically engaged and some of them will be oblivious to any Green surge. On another point this is the kind of the constituency that does not react well to outside activists flooding into the seat and telling the locals how to vote. If somebody is planning to vote tactically then they are more likely to pay attention to whatever ground campaign is going on in their area than the average voter. Yes, some of them will have managed to miss it over the last 18 months to two years. But it's unlikely that they will be a very large proportion of tactical voters. As for the constituency's reaction to a party using outside activists, what makes this constituency any different than North Shropshire (where the Lib Dem by-election campaign was full of outside activists flooding into the seat)? Like most political activists you fail to understand just how disengaged a lot of general election voters are. There are plenty of people who think the Tories deserve a kicking but have no idea who is best placed to beat them and have little interest in finding out. As for outside activists and North Shropshire, I don't know that constituency anywhere near as well as I know this one but it isn't as overwhelmingly rural (a higher percentage live in the major towns) and my impression is that it isn't as parochial. In any event by elections are different to general elections in their character and every party running a serious campaign has lots of outside activists. |
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cathyc
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Post by cathyc on Jun 17, 2024 9:52:50 GMT
Lib Dems were second last time, based on the polls you would think Labour would be second this time and the Greens are targeting it. If you are a broadly left wing voter and just want Wiggin to lose it is far from clear who you should vote for. Sensible people should forget about the fake snake oil,religion of Tactical Voting, and vote for the party whose policies they support. So you're saying that the Tories who are telling everybody it is just a fight between Sunak and Starmer should shut up? Even that they should tell people to vote for the party they actually support and not regard this 'two horse race' argument? |
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Post by johnloony on Jun 17, 2024 10:04:44 GMT
Sensible people should forget about the fake snake oil,religion of Tactical Voting, and vote for the party whose policies they support. So you're saying that the Tories who are telling everybody it is just a fight between Sunak and Starmer should shut up? Even that they should tell people to vote for the party they actually support and not regard this 'two horse race' argument? No I’m not saying that. He who accuses someone of saying something he did not say is an insane horse. |
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Post by islington on Jun 17, 2024 10:44:21 GMT
Lib Dems were second last time, based on the polls you would think Labour would be second this time and the Greens are targeting it. If you are a broadly left wing voter and just want Wiggin to lose it is far from clear who you should vote for. Sensible people should forget about the fake snake oil,religion of Tactical Voting, and vote for the party whose policies they support. That's one way of doing it.
My method is to ignore tactical voting and vote for the party I want to form the government.
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Post by batman on Jun 17, 2024 11:45:36 GMT
I voted sort of tactically in 2019, but more because I could not support my local Labour candidate in that election even though I preferred a Labour government to a Conservative one. Her subsequent record in my CLP shows that I made the right decision. I will not vote tactically in this election. Firstly, because I think it's immoral for me to be a member of a political party and vote against its candidate without good reason. And secondly because it just isn't necessary. Not only because the overall outcome is not in any doubt, but also because the outcome in my constituency is certain - it's a copper-bottomed Lib Dem hold. Why should I vote for a party whose ideology (or arguably lack of it) I fundamentally disagree with when they do not even require my vote to win? My mother & wife will vote Labour for similar reasons - we all voted for Sarah Olney last time. In an election where the overall outcome is so incredibly obvious, I don't understand why some voters remain so desperate to vote tactically in their seat, though if you particularly dislike your MP I do understand why the temptation to kick them out is hard to resist. There are certain seats where I'm glad I don't have a vote as I am not happy about the particular Labour candidate, but I think I can say there is no constituency in Britain where I would vote against Labour in this election even if in some (very limited number of) cases I might have to hold my nose in voting.
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cathyc
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Post by cathyc on Jun 17, 2024 17:52:49 GMT
So you're saying that the Tories who are telling everybody it is just a fight between Sunak and Starmer should shut up? Even that they should tell people to vote for the party they actually support and not regard this 'two horse race' argument? No I’m not saying that. He who accuses someone of saying something he did not say is an insane horse. Anyone who says that tactical voting at constituency level shouldn't happen but at a national one it should is a two-headed horse pulling in opposite directions. If you want to say that the argument being fostered by the Tories nationally that it's just a two horse race is bogus then feel free. |
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Post by johnloony on Jun 17, 2024 18:05:35 GMT
No I’m not saying that. He who accuses someone of saying something he did not say is an insane horse. Anyone who says that tactical voting at constituency level shouldn't happen but at a national one it should is a two-headed horse pulling in opposite directions. If you want to say that the argument being fostered by the Tories nationally that it's just a two horse race is bogus then feel free. I did not say that tactical voting should or should not happen at a constituency level or at a national level. |
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Post by owainsutton on Jun 17, 2024 18:15:21 GMT
I've encountered people in recent days talking about 'tactical' voting....in Manchester Withington. 2019 was a 28k majority for Labour, and the Tories likely to be somewhere near deposit-losing territory this time.
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