stb12
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Post by stb12 on Mar 14, 2024 0:54:39 GMT
Birmingham Ladywood
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Post by John Chanin on Mar 15, 2024 12:32:29 GMT
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Yaffles
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Post by Yaffles on Apr 2, 2024 13:55:57 GMT
Nothing really of note here, Shabana Mahmood will win (LABOUR HOLD), there may be some anti-Gaza backlash and the ever increasing volume of city centre apartments may help Greens a bit. She is closely associated with Starmer's leadership so will struggle to distance herself from his more unpopular political positions. Plus the Lib Dem candidate has been active the area effected by the proposed Ladywood regeneration scheme. Historians will note that the Liberals used slum clearance as a way to break back into Birmingham politics in the 60s/70s, so maybe history repeating itself.
Boundary changes shift the seat slightly east but overall balance of the seat in terms of demographics will change little. The low rate of voter registration and young population will make this one of the most populated seats in the country.
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graham
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Post by graham on Apr 2, 2024 16:12:35 GMT
Neville Chamberlain's seat 1918 - 1929!
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iang
Lib Dem
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Post by iang on Apr 2, 2024 16:16:58 GMT
There might be elements of the seat that are local election priorities in 2026, but doubt if it will be a focus for the General election
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Yaffles
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Post by Yaffles on Apr 2, 2024 16:29:32 GMT
There might be elements of the seat that are local election priorities in 2026, but doubt if it will be a focus for the General election Makes sense - I suppose the challenge for the Lib Dems is where (if anyway) to target in the West Midlands met county, I would guess Solihull? They look pretty weak everywhere else. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Apr 2, 2024 16:33:14 GMT
Neville Chamberlain's seat 1918 - 1929! Pretty little in common between the two - not even all of the current Ladywood ward, plus a few streets around Winson Green. |
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iang
Lib Dem
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Post by iang on Apr 2, 2024 16:37:10 GMT
It depends what you mean by target. In terms of regional priorities and effort from outside, nowhere. The key target in the wider region will obviously be holding North Shropshire, and then there will be one or two long range Tory targets. In the urban West Midlands, I expect there will be active local campaigns but with little support from outside in places where we have a strong councillor base and will want to recover a previous good position (Solihull might come into that category but the boundary changes there aren't helpful)
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nyx
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Post by nyx on Apr 2, 2024 17:14:13 GMT
After North Shropshire, I expect the main Lib Dem targets in the region will be Stratford-on-Avon and South Shropshire.
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Post by John Chanin on Apr 2, 2024 17:41:37 GMT
After North Shropshire, I expect the main Lib Dem targets in the region will be Stratford-on-Avon and South Shropshire. I'd have thought people will be encouraged to cross the regional boundary (which means little) to help in Oxfordshire. |
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nyx
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Post by nyx on Apr 2, 2024 17:58:01 GMT
After North Shropshire, I expect the main Lib Dem targets in the region will be Stratford-on-Avon and South Shropshire. I'd have thought people will be encouraged to cross the regional boundary (which means little) to help in Oxfordshire. Surely depends where in the region you are. Cheadle/Hazel Grove to the north, Cheltenham/Thornbury and Yate to the south, and Brecon and Radnorshire to the west are all targets. |
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iang
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Post by iang on Apr 2, 2024 18:55:42 GMT
Probably not breaching any confidences by confirming that Stratford is the main other target
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Post by finsobruce on Apr 2, 2024 19:08:46 GMT
Probably not breaching any confidences by confirming that Stratford is the main other target I bet they've been canvassing there since Twelfth Night.  |
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iang
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Post by iang on Apr 2, 2024 19:10:32 GMT
As long as it doesn't prove to be much ado about nothing
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 2, 2024 19:10:40 GMT
As in so many other Lib Dem 'targets' it will be much ado about nothing
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Post by finsobruce on Apr 2, 2024 19:11:45 GMT
As long as it doesn't prove to be much ado about nothing The lib dems might be better off canvassing the Merry Wives of Windsor. |
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iang
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Post by iang on Apr 2, 2024 19:12:00 GMT
Beat you to it
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Post by batman on Apr 2, 2024 19:31:16 GMT
they'll have to canvass the hamlets as well as the towns
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Chris from Brum
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Post by Chris from Brum on Apr 12, 2024 18:06:21 GMT
As in so many other Lib Dem 'targets' it will be much ado about nothing As long as it isn't a comedy of errors. |
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
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Post by john07 on Apr 12, 2024 18:50:57 GMT
Neville Chamberlain's seat 1918 - 1929! And much later Brian Walden’s seat. |
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