Birmingham Ladywood

[birkinabe]

He'll definitely get at least 2nd place, but there are quite a few unknowns that may work against him. Leaving aside how well he'll do amongst non-Muslim voters and the portion of the electorate that only votes in general elections regardless of religion (which seems like it might be higher here than in most other constituencies, but I can't say for sure whether it is or not), even a substantial portion of the Muslim population might prove to not be very inclined to vote for him (and not just because of disagreements with or personal disapproval of him either), though this is much less important compared to the other two factors.

P.S. I wonder if he'd be more likely to win in Hall Green and Moseley than here, and if it's possibly even the case that he'd win there, but not here.

[iain]

I am not particularly enamoured with much of the Labour frontbench, but Mahmood is rather impressive. It would certainly be a loss if she were to lose, and in a GE I struggle to see her being at too much risk.

[iainbhx]

Jun 13, 2024 14:12:38 GMT Yaffles said:

Jun 13, 2024 14:01:06 GMT jamesmanc22 said:

I have a sneaky feeling this seat goes independent to Akhmed Yakoob. No data apart from mayoral election results but online campaign seems to be very positive for him

I am skeptical, he makes a lot of noise but I suspect Shabana knows how to campaign effectively in Muslim communities. It will be a close run thing but I suspect she will hang on by a couple of thousand votes.  

Well, if she doesn't, then I'm sure there are others in her family who do.

[Chris from Brum]

Jun 13, 2024 16:23:52 GMT iainbhx said:

Jun 13, 2024 14:12:38 GMT Yaffles said:

I am skeptical, he makes a lot of noise but I suspect Shabana knows how to campaign effectively in Muslim communities. It will be a close run thing but I suspect she will hang on by a couple of thousand votes.  

Well, if she doesn't, then I'm sure there are others in her family who do.

She's not related to Khalid at all, is she?

[bd]

Having worked in a number of parts of the city where the community is mixed but has a significant Muslim presence, the response of the Muslim community in those areas is mixed. I would say it’s roughly 20% saying they are voting Independent, 40% saying undecided (some of whom are just being polite) and 40% saying that they will vote Labour. Whether that is the same in predominantly Muslim parts of the city I don’t know. Other than the fact that you cannot take any one community’s voting behaviour for granted I know that doesn’t add much to the sum of knowledge.

Driving through some of the areas where the Muslim community makes up a larger proportion of the population, there are lots of posters for independent candidates in shops but next to none in homes. The presence of posters in local shops for political candidates says very little about levels of support.

[Deleted]

Jun 14, 2024 6:19:27 GMT bd said:

Having worked in a number of parts of the city where the community is mixed but has a significant Muslim presence, the response of the Muslim community in those areas is mixed. I would say it’s roughly 20% saying they are voting Independent, 40% saying undecided (some of whom are just being polite) and 40% saying that they will vote Labour. Whether that is the same in predominantly Muslim parts of the city I don’t know. Other than the fact that you cannot take any one community’s voting behaviour for granted I know that doesn’t add much to the sum of knowledge.

Driving through some of the areas where the Muslim community makes up a larger proportion of the population, there are lots of posters for independent candidates in shops but next to none in homes. The presence of posters in local shops for political candidates says very little about levels of support.

On posters, the 2023 Hackney mayoral election was a close race between the Greens and TUSC, and Corbyn is on track to win Islington North by Assad margins. 

[iainbhx]

Jun 14, 2024 6:19:27 GMT bd said:

Driving through some of the areas where the Muslim community makes up a larger proportion of the population, there are lots of posters for independent candidates in shops but next to none in homes. The presence of posters in local shops for political candidates says very little about levels of support.

It's fair to say that some shops will display posters for multiple candidates and some will just display one. The multiple used to be the norm, but dropped off over the last two decades.

Similarly, posters in houses can represent the views of the landlord not the residents.

[mattbewilson]

Jun 14, 2024 6:19:27 GMT bd said:

Having worked in a number of parts of the city where the community is mixed but has a significant Muslim presence, the response of the Muslim community in those areas is mixed. I would say it’s roughly 20% saying they are voting Independent, 40% saying undecided (some of whom are just being polite) and 40% saying that they will vote Labour. Whether that is the same in predominantly Muslim parts of the city I don’t know. Other than the fact that you cannot take any one community’s voting behaviour for granted I know that doesn’t add much to the sum of knowledge.

Driving through some of the areas where the Muslim community makes up a larger proportion of the population, there are lots of posters for independent candidates in shops but next to none in homes. The presence of posters in local shops for political candidates says very little about levels of support.

I've noticed this in other constituencies too

[batman]

Jun 14, 2024 6:19:27 GMT bd said:

Having worked in a number of parts of the city where the community is mixed but has a significant Muslim presence, the response of the Muslim community in those areas is mixed. I would say it’s roughly 20% saying they are voting Independent, 40% saying undecided (some of whom are just being polite) and 40% saying that they will vote Labour. Whether that is the same in predominantly Muslim parts of the city I don’t know. Other than the fact that you cannot take any one community’s voting behaviour for granted I know that doesn’t add much to the sum of knowledge.

Driving through some of the areas where the Muslim community makes up a larger proportion of the population, there are lots of posters for independent candidates in shops but next to none in homes. The presence of posters in local shops for political candidates says very little about levels of support.

this would be in accordance with the recent poll of Muslim voters

[batman]

Jun 14, 2024 6:22:26 GMT iainbhx said:

Jun 14, 2024 6:19:27 GMT bd said:

Driving through some of the areas where the Muslim community makes up a larger proportion of the population, there are lots of posters for independent candidates in shops but next to none in homes. The presence of posters in local shops for political candidates says very little about levels of support.

It's fair to say that some shops will display posters for multiple candidates and some will just display one. The multiple used to be the norm, but dropped off over the last two decades.

Similarly, posters in houses can represent the views of the landlord not the residents.

yes this was something much in evidence in the Southall by-election of 2007

[johnloony]

Jun 14, 2024 6:43:47 GMT batman said:

Jun 14, 2024 6:22:26 GMT iainbhx said:

It's fair to say that some shops will display posters for multiple candidates and some will just display one. The multiple used to be the norm, but dropped off over the last two decades.

Similarly, posters in houses can represent the views of the landlord not the residents.

yes this was something much in evidence in the Southall by-election of 2007

I remember being misled into thinking that one of the Independent candidates was going to do well, and perhaps get a few percent of the vote (or a thousand or two), just because I saw lots of his posters around. He ended up with only a few hundred.

[edgbaston]

Today I convinced an older Reform supporter to vote Labour to keep the Independent out based on not wanting a homophobic MP. Politics can be funny..

The recent modelling circulating on twitter is proving useful to use as a squeeze message on some.

[John Chanin]

I really don't think Shabana Mahmood is in any difficulty here, although I agree that Akhmed Yakoub will finish a respectable second.

[batman]

If you're right John, there will be precious few worries for Labour in terms of facing challenges from independents in seats they are defending (unless we're counting Islington North which is obviously a special case). Dewsbury & Batley is often cited as the no.1 risk, but if Birmingham Ladywood is held I struggle to find other seats of this kind. I really cannot see Murray worrying Kate Hollern in Blackburn. I suppose Bethnal Green & Bow is a little unpredictable but not many people think Labour will lose there either. Bradford West could possibly be interesting but again I think Naz Shah will be OK. Anyone else with thoughts? I can't pretend to know those seats well except for Bethnal Green & Bow.

[rcronald]

The constituency is probably too black for a Gaza-Indi to win.

[birkinabe]

Jun 18, 2024 13:46:22 GMT rcronald said:

The constituency is probably too black for a Gaza-Indi to win.

I broadly agree, but it is worth noting that, per Nomis, at the last census approximately 44% of the black population here was Muslim, representing around 21% of the total Muslim population, and 10% of the population as a whole. More generally though, yes, the analysis and commentary regarding this seat that I've seen has neglected the fact that even if not for Muslim voters, this would still be a very safe Labour seat.

[doktorb🏳️‍🌈🏳️‍⚧️]

An independent candidate standing in Birmingham said “70% of hell will be women” and joked about domestic violence on a podcast earlier this year, it has emerged, as polling suggests he is closing the gap with Labour.
Akhmed Yakoob, who came third in the West Midlands mayoral election in May with just over 10% of the vote, is standing against Labour’s Shabana Mahmood in Ladywood, one of the most deprived constituencies in the country.

The latest prediction from Electoral Calculus put him on 31%, with Mahmood on 37%, and Labour is reportedly diverting resources to the seat to rally more voters.
In March, Yakoob appeared on an episode of the Minted Minds podcast, hosted by the Birmingham-based entrepreneur Abdhul Zaman.
Other guests on the episode included Shakeel Afsar, who is running as an independent candidate in Hall Green and was one of the lead protesters in the row over LGBTQ+ equality teaching in Birmingham schools in 2019; Dr Asif Munaf, a former Apprentice contestant recently suspended by the General Medical Council pending an investigation of allegedly antisemitic social media posts; and the Coventry-based restaurant owners Mohammed “Sunny” Sarnwal and Waqas “Vic” Mohammed.
The podcast episode was advertised as an “emergency meeting” of “influential voices” to talk about Palestine, but over the course of the two-hour conversation the subject turned to masculinity and women.
Munaf said the majority of followers of Dajjaal – a false messiah or liar in Islam – would be women who had been “empowered”, and Yakoob agreed, saying that “70% of hell is going to be women”. One of the guests can be heard saying: “We don’t want to get cancelled.”
Later, during a discussion about women making money by dancing on TikTok, Mohammed said: “Getting back to masculinity, I personally would give her a backhander. I’m not joking.”

Shakeel responded: “We do not advocate any physical violence against anyone.” Sarnwal said: “He’s right, though, what he’s saying.”
Yakoob, a criminal law solicitor since 2014, then said to Mohammed: “Brother, are you saying if she comes up in your personal space, you will defend yourself?” – a reference to defence arguments employed by lawyers – prompting loud laughter from the other guests.
One of the men quoted Yakoob’s tagline, used in his YouTube videos about legal issues. “There’s a defence for every offence, bro,” he says, prompting more laughter.
Although the comments did not make it into the final cut published by Minted Minds, a full unedited version of the conversation has been posted online. All six men who appeared on the podcast have been contacted for comment.
Jess Phillips, the former shadow domestic violence minister, said: “I have handled many cases of domestic abuse in Birmingham, and the women beaten and raped weren’t laughing.
“These attitudes have no place in our democracy. He should explain to the 50% of constituents in Ladywood who are women – and all the decent men too – how they can possibly trust he will work for them when he is sharing these awful views.”
Yakoob is campaigning largely on the issue of Palestine, with posters calling on people to “lend their vote to Gaza”. He has also sought to capitalise on dissatisfaction with mainstream parties, saying a win for him would mean “independence from the political elites”.

[edgbaston]

Jun 19, 2024 21:38:26 GMT doktorb🏳️‍🌈🏳️‍⚧️ said:

An independent candidate standing in Birmingham said “70% of hell will be women” and joked about domestic violence on a podcast earlier this year, it has emerged, as polling suggests he is closing the gap with Labour.
Akhmed Yakoob, who came third in the West Midlands mayoral election in May with just over 10% of the vote, is standing against Labour’s Shabana Mahmood in Ladywood, one of the most deprived constituencies in the country.

The latest prediction from Electoral Calculus put him on 31%, with Mahmood on 37%, and Labour is reportedly diverting resources to the seat to rally more voters.
In March, Yakoob appeared on an episode of the Minted Minds podcast, hosted by the Birmingham-based entrepreneur Abdhul Zaman.
Other guests on the episode included Shakeel Afsar, who is running as an independent candidate in Hall Green and was one of the lead protesters in the row over LGBTQ+ equality teaching in Birmingham schools in 2019; Dr Asif Munaf, a former Apprentice contestant recently suspended by the General Medical Council pending an investigation of allegedly antisemitic social media posts; and the Coventry-based restaurant owners Mohammed “Sunny” Sarnwal and Waqas “Vic” Mohammed.
The podcast episode was advertised as an “emergency meeting” of “influential voices” to talk about Palestine, but over the course of the two-hour conversation the subject turned to masculinity and women.
Munaf said the majority of followers of Dajjaal – a false messiah or liar in Islam – would be women who had been “empowered”, and Yakoob agreed, saying that “70% of hell is going to be women”. One of the guests can be heard saying: “We don’t want to get cancelled.”
Later, during a discussion about women making money by dancing on TikTok, Mohammed said: “Getting back to masculinity, I personally would give her a backhander. I’m not joking.”

Shakeel responded: “We do not advocate any physical violence against anyone.” Sarnwal said: “He’s right, though, what he’s saying.”
Yakoob, a criminal law solicitor since 2014, then said to Mohammed: “Brother, are you saying if she comes up in your personal space, you will defend yourself?” – a reference to defence arguments employed by lawyers – prompting loud laughter from the other guests.
One of the men quoted Yakoob’s tagline, used in his YouTube videos about legal issues. “There’s a defence for every offence, bro,” he says, prompting more laughter.
Although the comments did not make it into the final cut published by Minted Minds, a full unedited version of the conversation has been posted online. All six men who appeared on the podcast have been contacted for comment.
Jess Phillips, the former shadow domestic violence minister, said: “I have handled many cases of domestic abuse in Birmingham, and the women beaten and raped weren’t laughing.
“These attitudes have no place in our democracy. He should explain to the 50% of constituents in Ladywood who are women – and all the decent men too – how they can possibly trust he will work for them when he is sharing these awful views.”
Yakoob is campaigning largely on the issue of Palestine, with posters calling on people to “lend their vote to Gaza”. He has also sought to capitalise on dissatisfaction with mainstream parties, saying a win for him would mean “independence from the political elites”.

More horrifying extracts:

“
Yakoob: Look, as I said, I've got nothing against women, I love women, (men laugh and Sarnwal says: "Yeah, I bet you do") I love my wife. But everyone has got a role in society, everyone has got a role in the household. In my household, I'm the man, I'm the king. I call the shots, and my Mrs, Alhamdulillah, listens to me and is appreciative.

Munaf: Because women want men. Women want men.
Yakoob: Women want real men who go out and provide so she can be the queen, and she can look after the children and look after our kids, the household as well.

Yakoob: How much can you lower your gaze? If any one of us was to come with our wife who is tarted up to the nines, it's natural for a male to look at her and think: "She looks all right.”

Munaf: And if you don't, you're not a man, you're a eunuch.

Yakoob: It's natural for men to be attracted to females, so keep our queens at home.

“

[edgbaston]

It’s absolutely unbelievable that so many people have and will vote for this awful man, he needs more scrutiny and fast. A full expose of his beliefs and behaviour.

[iainbhx]

Jun 19, 2024 23:39:02 GMT edgbaston said:

It’s absolutely unbelievable that so many people have and will vote for this awful man, he needs more scrutiny and fast. A full expose of his beliefs and behaviour.

Because a lot of his voters will broadly agree with those beliefs, that's why. Those calling themselves progressive and on the left who are supporting hin should look again, but many of them won't do that, others will make excuses about "it is his culture" which is borderline racist in itself and some of them just want to vote for the candidate who hates Jews the most.

It's also not exactly as if the main political parties in Brum haven't had candidates and councillors with very unprogressive views and frequently unafraid to express them.