Bristol Central

[markfoster]

Jun 21, 2024 22:19:16 GMT Adam in Stroud said:

Jun 21, 2024 19:58:14 GMT markfoster said:

Bristol became a major centre of Corbynism. Local CLPs expanded a great deal under his leadership. When he stepped down, a lot of those people left. The manner in which the party treated him caused more to leave and embittered quite a few. Starmer is therefore the target of much of that anger, and attcking him is an effective way of reaching former Labour members and supporters.

Well, that's really my point.

I'm sure it goes over well with ex-Lab members and the very politically engaged, and I expect that is a relatively high proportion of this particular electorate.

But we've all had the sort of conversations on the doorstep where voters can't remember who the party leader even is.

I think it might be an error for a local Green Party boosted by Corbynite defectors to assume that the views of the latter reflect those of the general public. The Momentumites weren't generally renowned for having their fingers on the national pulse.

But it will be interesting to see how it goes.

Yes, I think in general this is right, but the particular mix of history and demography and the presence of a credible left-of-Labour force make this constituency fertile ground for such a campaign.

I have two good friends in the area, one in each camp. Funnily enough, they both sounded quite pessimistic when I spoke to them, so let’s see how things shake out.

[beesknee5]

Both my kids live in Bristol Central.

Today the Labour MP visited and sat down with them for a chat

Looks like my daughter who was going to vote green might change her mind.

[bsjmcr]

If Debbonaire loses I’m sure she will be back at a by election or in the Lords - Baroness Debbonaire of Bristol has a nice ring to it.

Hard to tell how much of her massive majority is personally for her or for Corbyn as it were - but I have a feeling there doesn’t seem to be too much personal animosity to her, more to the national party and a reassurance that people can safely vote Green without letting the Tory in (even though amazingly the predecessor Bristol West was Conservative pre-1997…)

[Sibboleth]

Brexit, I suspect. Issue elections create a very different dynamic to other ones.

[wysall]

Jun 23, 2024 22:14:20 GMT bsjmcr said:

If Debbonaire loses I’m sure she will be back at a by election or in the Lords - Baroness Debbonaire of Bristol has a nice ring to it.

Hard to tell how much of her massive majority is personally for her or for Corbyn as it were - but I have a feeling there doesn’t seem to be too much personal animosity to her, more to the national party and a reassurance that people can safely vote Green without letting the Tory in (even though amazingly the predecessor Bristol West was Conservative pre-1997…)

Bristol West then included Stoke Bishop and Henleaze, which are both still strong territory for the party.

[owainsutton]

Jun 23, 2024 22:14:20 GMT bsjmcr said:

If Debbonaire loses I’m sure she will be back at a by election or in the Lords - Baroness Debbonaire of Bristol has a nice ring to it.

Hard to tell how much of her massive majority is personally for her or for Corbyn as it were - but I have a feeling there doesn’t seem to be too much personal animosity to her, more to the national party and a reassurance that people can safely vote Green without letting the Tory in (even though amazingly the predecessor Bristol West was Conservative pre-1997…)

As was Brighton Pavilion.

[Deleted]

Jun 24, 2024 5:31:50 GMT owainsutton said:

Jun 23, 2024 22:14:20 GMT bsjmcr said:

If Debbonaire loses I’m sure she will be back at a by election or in the Lords - Baroness Debbonaire of Bristol has a nice ring to it.

Hard to tell how much of her massive majority is personally for her or for Corbyn as it were - but I have a feeling there doesn’t seem to be too much personal animosity to her, more to the national party and a reassurance that people can safely vote Green without letting the Tory in (even though amazingly the predecessor Bristol West was Conservative pre-1997…)

As was Brighton Pavilion.

I think both have had adverse boundary changes since the Tories last won them - I think on current boundaries, the Tories might have lost this seat in 1992. In Brighton, some areas around Hanover & Elm Grove went in to the seat in 1997 so the notional Tory majority would have been a bit smaller. 

As for this seat:

GRN 36
LAB 35
LD 15
CON 8 
REF 5
OTH 1 

[froome]

Boundary changes have certainly moved the constituency away from the Conservatives, but they are only a very small part of the story. Demographics and the whole economic structure and culture of the city are far more important.

I first moved to what was then Bristol West in the 1970s, and lived then in what was called District ward, which roughly now equates with Ashley ward, covering the inner city on the north side of the city. These days it is a Green/Labour battleground where almost nobody would even consider voting Conservative, but when I was there it was a strongly Conservative ward. That vote would have come from the large houses built on the hillside of Montpelier and St Andrews, which were even by then being rapidly divided into smaller bedsits and flats as families died out or moved away, and also partly from the working-class inner city areas below them where the demographics and economy were changing rapidly. The city now is very different from what it was then, even though most of that area looks much as it did back in those days.

[Deleted]

I suspect there are plenty of cases in Clifton where the children of the Conservative voters in 1992 are the landlords of the Green/Labour voters today.

[The Bishop]

Jun 24, 2024 5:36:07 GMT @weld said:

Jun 24, 2024 5:31:50 GMT owainsutton said:

As was Brighton Pavilion.

I think both have had adverse boundary changes since the Tories last won them - I think on current boundaries, the Tories might have lost this seat in 1992. In Brighton, some areas around Hanover & Elm Grove went in to the seat in 1997 so the notional Tory majority would have been a bit smaller. 

As for this seat:

GRN 36
LAB 35
LD 15
CON 8 
REF 5
OTH 1 

LibDems far too high, all parties other than Labour and Greens may struggle to save their deposit.

[froome]

Jun 24, 2024 9:11:31 GMT The Bishop said:

Jun 24, 2024 5:36:07 GMT @weld said:

I think both have had adverse boundary changes since the Tories last won them - I think on current boundaries, the Tories might have lost this seat in 1992. In Brighton, some areas around Hanover & Elm Grove went in to the seat in 1997 so the notional Tory majority would have been a bit smaller. 

As for this seat:

GRN 36
LAB 35
LD 15
CON 8 
REF 5
OTH 1 

LibDems far too high, all parties other than Labour and Greens may struggle to save their deposit.

I think it very likely that only 2 parties will save their deposit here, though the Lib Dems may just scrape theirs. I can't see the Conservatives or Reform saving theirs (though in these volatile times, who knows who might choose to vote Reform).

[andrewp]

Whilst the area has undoubtedly changed in the last 30 years, the last 3 sets of boundary changes here have all had an impact

In 1997. Westbury on Trym was added, strengthening the Conservative position- that changed the 1992 actual of Con 42 LD 31 Lab 25 to a notional Con 45 Ld 29 Lab 23
In 2010, Stoke Bishop and Westbury on Trym were removed and Easton and Lawrence Hill added. A major change. That changed a 2005 actual of LD 38, Lab 29 Con 27 to a notional of LD 39 Lab 37 Con 16
In 2024 Easton and Lawrence Hill have been removed again so a 2019 actual of Lab 62 Green 25 Con 12, becomes a notional of Lab 58 Green 26 Con 14.

The 2010-24 boundaries were clearly the most favourable set for Labour, and the 1997-2010 ones the most favourable to the Tories. The Tories might well have got quite close in 2010 on the 1997-2010 boundaries,  I assume that 1992 would be the last time they would have won it on the 1997-2010 boundaries and on the current boundaries. I’m not absolutely sure they would have won it in 1992 on the 2010-24 boundaries.

[wysall]

Jun 24, 2024 6:00:00 GMT froome said:

Boundary changes have certainly moved the constituency away from the Conservatives, but they are only a very small part of the story. Demographics and the whole economic structure and culture of the city are far more important.

I first moved to what was then Bristol West in the 1970s, and lived then in what was called District ward, which roughly now equates with Ashley ward, covering the inner city on the north side of the city. These days it is a Green/Labour battleground where almost nobody would even consider voting Conservative, but when I was there it was a strongly Conservative ward. That vote would have come from the large houses built on the hillside of Montpelier and St Andrews, which were even by then being rapidly divided into smaller bedsits and flats as families died out or moved away, and also partly from the working-class inner city areas below them where the demographics and economy were changing rapidly. The city now is very different from what it was then, even though most of that area looks much as it did back in those days.

 Yes: I'm familiar enough with the process, being from Jesmond which has followed an identical path. But I thought the boundary changes aspect worth mentioning nonetheless, as an explanation for why it survived 1992 and was close in 1997 rather than attributing the shift to that solely.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

[right]

Jun 24, 2024 20:33:09 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

If it wasn't Labour it would be news

[right]

The endorsement train continues, with Clare Short as the Green star:

electionleaflets.org/leaflets/19971/

(Love how Owen Jones is tucked in between a "health service worker" and a pub landlord)

[Pete Whitehead]

God there's a blast from the past. I'd forgotten she had existed or thought she was dead. I doubt many of the millenial and zoomer voters in this seat who the Greens are targetting know who the fuck she is

[Deleted]

I was today year's old when I learned this about the Labour candidate in Bristol Central

[carlton43]

Jun 28, 2024 1:23:21 GMT @weld said:

I was today year's old when I learned this about the Labour candidate in Bristol Central

Grandstanding spoilt brat syndrome.

[Merseymike]

Jun 28, 2024 8:44:49 GMT carlton43 said:

Grandstanding spoilt brat syndrome.

I don't think so. People use different names - they just decide a name they like?