Bristol Central

[stb12]

Bristol Central

[YL]

Guardian: Greens hope breakthrough in Bristol will bring second MP

[oldhamexile]

One of the probable factors in Sunak's mind when choosing 4th July was that most students will have left their term-time addresses, some will already have left the country, and much of the election campaign period will coincide with exams.

But in this particular constituency might he have done Starmer a favour and damaged the Greens' chances?

[connor]

Isn't this seat one of the most left leaning in the county? I'm sure its more than just uni students.

Though outside of Brighton P, all other Green targets are a huge obstacle to overcome. They'll need a lot to get this seat to turn Green.

[johnloony]

May 22, 2024 22:15:24 GMT connor said:

Isn't this seat one of the most left leaning in the county? I'm sure its more than just uni students.

Though outside of Brighton P, all other Green targets are a huge obstacle to overcome. They'll need a lot to get this seat to turn Green.

Some people think that it will be easier for the Green Party to gain Bristol Central (where they already have all the councillors) than to hold Brighton Pavilion (where the Green Party council was rubbish), despite having a big Green majority in Brighton Pavilion in 2019 and a big Labour majority in Bristol West in 2019. I think they won’t succeed 8n Bristol Central, because it needs a bigger turnout in a general election than in local elections.

[Tony Otim]

May 22, 2024 21:24:53 GMT oldhamexile said:

One of the probable factors in Sunak's mind when choosing 4th July was that most students will have left their term-time addresses, some will already have left the country, and much of the election campaign period will coincide with exams.

But in this particular constituency might he have done Starmer a favour and damaged the Greens' chances?

Would that really be good thinking by Sunak - most student heavy constituencies aren't Tory anyway, so I'm not sure having the students away from those seats and back at their parents' homes really helps the Tories...

[Old Fashioned Leftie]

May 23, 2024 7:21:53 GMT Tony Otim said:

May 22, 2024 21:24:53 GMT oldhamexile said:

One of the probable factors in Sunak's mind when choosing 4th July was that most students will have left their term-time addresses, some will already have left the country, and much of the election campaign period will coincide with exams.

But in this particular constituency might he have done Starmer a favour and damaged the Greens' chances?

Would that really be good thinking by Sunak - most student heavy constituencies aren't Tory anyway, so I'm not sure having the students away from those seats and back at their parents' homes really helps the Tories...

Very rarely do we see the words "good thinking" and "Sunak" in the same sentence, the fact that he decided to announce a general election looking like a drowned rat may explain why. The date may indeed make this seat a more likely Labour hold, so thanks for your "good thinking" Richi it is much appreciated you have helped Labour here and throughout much of the country.

[Deleted]

You don't win all the council seats in a constituency by appealing to one group of (low turnout) voters, do you? There must be a decent number of people here who aren't students who voted Green. It reminds me of when Julian Brazier attributed losing Canterbury in 2017 to students (yes they played their part in Rosie Duffield winning it, but they weren't the only ingredient). It's a tall order for the Greens though (obviously).

[wantagedave]

The Greens haven’t hung around in Bristol Central. First leaflet through the door last night

[carlton43]

May 23, 2024 9:40:11 GMT wantagedave said:

The Greens haven’t hung around in Bristol Central. First leaflet through the door last night

Which read ...

'The paper for this entirely unnecessary communication was sustainably procured by recycling many other totally unnecessary political leaflets from the past.  This is sustainable communitarian nonsense working for you and helping to deliver a better and a caring Britain : albeit a lying and dimwitted Britain in thrall to vacuous nonsense and gormless buzzwords."

Just a few more weeks of this total drivel and we can get back to slagging off a new government and disclosing all the skeletons in their various closets and the rich archive of gormless and spiteful and libellous posts and tweets they will be shewn to have made!  Looking forward to all that, but not so much the boring election bit that comes first.

[Deleted]

May 22, 2024 21:24:53 GMT oldhamexile said:

One of the probable factors in Sunak's mind when choosing 4th July was that most students will have left their term-time addresses, some will already have left the country, and much of the election campaign period will coincide with exams.

But in this particular constituency might he have done Starmer a favour and damaged the Greens' chances?

There won't be that many students leaving the country who would otherwise be eligible to vote. From my experience the largest group of Commonwealth international students are likely to be Master's students from South Asia (particularly India), whose programmes will mostly extend over the summer anyway.

As others have mentioned, most student-y constituencies will go Labour regardless of the students. Loughborough and Romsey & Southampton North (and I suppose here, for the reasons you say) are a couple of counterexamples where the relative absence of students could very plausibly change the outcome. Otherwise, the 'spreading out' of students going home for summer could easily benefit Labour, as far as I can tell.

[oldhamexile]

May 23, 2024 15:44:45 GMT @nw12398 said:

May 22, 2024 21:24:53 GMT oldhamexile said:

One of the probable factors in Sunak's mind when choosing 4th July was that most students will have left their term-time addresses, some will already have left the country, and much of the election campaign period will coincide with exams.

But in this particular constituency might he have done Starmer a favour and damaged the Greens' chances?

There won't be that many students leaving the country who would otherwise be eligible to vote. From my experience the largest group of Commonwealth international students are likely to be Master's students from South Asia (particularly India), whose programmes will mostly extend over the summer anyway.

As others have mentioned, most student-y constituencies will go Labour regardless of the students. Loughborough and Romsey & Southampton North (and I suppose here, for the reasons you say) are a couple of counterexamples where the relative absence of students could very plausibly change the outcome. Otherwise, the 'spreading out' of students going home for summer could easily benefit Labour, as far as I can tell.

I wasn't thinking of foreign students, more those UK students who go away for a large part of the long vac.

And I was thinking of organised activism as much as voting.  At one time UEA students would have been a big part of the reason why Norwich South was targeted by the Greens, but for whatever reason that challenge seems to have faded away.

One of the interesting aspects of this election will be to see just how badly Labour has suffered from its Gaza policy, when it comes to a 'serious' parliamentary election rather than a local protest vote.

Heavily student areas would have been one area where this might have been observed, but with their votes likely to be scattered we shall have to rely on exit poll evidence.

As several have noted, there don't seem to be that many university towns/cities in present circumstances that are marginal.  A far cry from my day when both Oxford East and (for a longer period) Oxford West & Abingdon were Tory-held marginals. 

[monksfield]

I can’t see Labour losing this at a time they are in the ascendancy. In 5 or 10 years time maybe.

[hullenedge]

This is not a poll however this seat is crying out for a constituency poll:-

[Deleted]

May 25, 2024 19:03:52 GMT hullenedge said:

This is not a poll however this seat is crying out for a constituency poll:-

Any election model which is unvalidated and with secret methodology should not be regarded as any better as your personal hunch, as it will likely either be someone else's guess, or based on assumptions on voting demographics which are merely someone else's guess.

[bjornhattan]

May 25, 2024 20:25:52 GMT @nw12398 said:

May 25, 2024 19:03:52 GMT hullenedge said:

This is not a poll however this seat is crying out for a constituency poll:-

Any election model which is unvalidated and with secret methodology should not be regarded as any better as your personal hunch, as it will likely either be someone else's guess, or based on assumptions on voting demographics which are merely someone else's guess.

I want to know how they're doing a regression model with a sample size of (presumably) one. The whole point of regression is you need a lot of data; it's something you might do after fifty constituencies declare on election night to see if the swing is bigger in more strongly Tory seats, not something you do when you have no information at all!

[hullenedge]

May 26, 2024 8:09:32 GMT bjornhattan said:

May 25, 2024 20:25:52 GMT @nw12398 said:

Any election model which is unvalidated and with secret methodology should not be regarded as any better as your personal hunch, as it will likely either be someone else's guess, or based on assumptions on voting demographics which are merely someone else's guess.

I want to know how they're doing a regression model with a sample size of (presumably) one. The whole point of regression is you need a lot of data; it's something you might do after fifty constituencies declare on election night to see if the swing is bigger in more strongly Tory seats, not something you do when you have no information at all!

They won't say (based upon the recent locals?) but hopefully someone will stump up for a constituency poll.

[YL]

May 26, 2024 8:09:32 GMT bjornhattan said:

May 25, 2024 20:25:52 GMT @nw12398 said:

Any election model which is unvalidated and with secret methodology should not be regarded as any better as your personal hunch, as it will likely either be someone else's guess, or based on assumptions on voting demographics which are merely someone else's guess.

I want to know how they're doing a regression model with a sample size of (presumably) one. The whole point of regression is you need a lot of data; it's something you might do after fifty constituencies declare on election night to see if the swing is bigger in more strongly Tory seats, not something you do when you have no information at all!

This account has been tweeting these "regression model" projections for a number of seats, but there is no detail on what methodology they are actually using. I suppose they could be using data from the local elections, but I'd be very sceptical that that would give useful results.

[Deleted]

May 26, 2024 8:09:32 GMT bjornhattan said:

May 25, 2024 20:25:52 GMT @nw12398 said:

Any election model which is unvalidated and with secret methodology should not be regarded as any better as your personal hunch, as it will likely either be someone else's guess, or based on assumptions on voting demographics which are merely someone else's guess.

I want to know how they're doing a regression model with a sample size of (presumably) one. The whole point of regression is you need a lot of data; it's something you might do after fifty constituencies declare on election night to see if the swing is bigger in more strongly Tory seats, not something you do when you have no information at all!

It could be that they're using census data and previous demographic voting patterns to attempt to improve projections of national swings on to individual seats, which is potentially useful but seeing the methodology would help to determine that. Or, yes, it could be and probably is complete junk.

[YL]

May 26, 2024 8:19:03 GMT hullenedge said:

... hopefully someone will stump up for a constituency poll.

We could crowdfund one...