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Post by WestCountryRadical on Jun 7, 2024 19:33:10 GMT
SOPNRobert Clarke (Ref) Nicholas Coombes (LD) Thangam Debbonaire (Lab) Carla Denyer (Grn) Kellie-Jay Keen-Minshull (Party of Women) Samuel Williams (Con)
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Post by November_Rain on Jun 9, 2024 17:20:04 GMT
Grn 44.1%
Lab 41.7% (this is going to be a fight to the end)
LD 5.4%
Cons 4.4%
Ref 2.5%
POW 1.9%
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haroldthepolitician
Labour
'You can be just what you want to be, Just as long as you don't try and compete with me' - Jarvis
Posts: 216 
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Post by haroldthepolitician on Jun 9, 2024 21:39:53 GMT
Grn 44.1% Lab 41.7% (this is going to be a fight to the end) LD 5.4% Cons 4.4% Ref 2.5% POW 1.9% This was pretty much my prediction pre SOPN so I largely agree - though I reckon labour are slight favourites. |
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Post by edgbaston on Jun 9, 2024 21:45:09 GMT
Grn 44.1% Lab 41.7% (this is going to be a fight to the end) LD 5.4% Cons 4.4% Ref 2.5% POW 1.9% Just to be clear what is this from |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Jun 9, 2024 22:22:20 GMT
Grn 44.1% Lab 41.7% (this is going to be a fight to the end) LD 5.4% Cons 4.4% Ref 2.5% POW 1.9% Just to be clear what is this from I fear some of our colleagues have chosen to fill the constituency section of the Forum with predictions which seem both premature and speculative. |
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Post by November_Rain on Jun 9, 2024 22:36:31 GMT
Grn 44.1% Lab 41.7% (this is going to be a fight to the end) LD 5.4% Cons 4.4% Ref 2.5% POW 1.9% Just to be clear what is this from This is what I think the result will be. |
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Post by edgbaston on Jun 9, 2024 22:51:54 GMT
Just to be clear what is this from This is what I think the result will be. It may just be helpful to note this, I got exited for a moment thinking it was a constituency poll, or a demographic regression from a larger poll! |
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Jun 9, 2024 22:56:14 GMT
Probably old news to most of you, but I think this was a reasonably balanced and informative (e.g. including constituency profile stats) look at the local campaign. The quote that stands out to me is this: Leaving aside the merits of the policy position for the moment, and I may be projecting my own views here, but while I'm sure Gaza will play a part, it seems to me unwise to make this the main focus of a campaign. This is not a majority Muslim electorate; it has a large student presence, but 70% of the population are not (and the student share may drop a little on polling day due to end of term and student lets.) Denyer's profile will have been raised by participation in the TV debate which I'd expect to help her (albeit only 5% of the population watched) |
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carlton43
Reform Party
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Post by carlton43 on Jun 9, 2024 23:48:31 GMT
This is what I think the result will be. It may just be helpful to note this, I got exited for a moment thinking it was a constituency poll, or a demographic regression from a larger poll! Would that have been better in your eyes or any more likely to be accurate? |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jun 9, 2024 23:53:39 GMT
Probably old news to most of you, but I think this was a reasonably balanced and informative (e.g. including constituency profile stats) look at the local campaign. The quote that stands out to me is this: Leaving aside the merits of the policy position for the moment, and I may be projecting my own views here, but while I'm sure Gaza will play a part, it seems to me unwise to make this the main focus of a campaign. This is not a majority Muslim electorate; it has a large student presence, but 70% of the population are not (and the student share may drop a little on polling day due to end of term and student lets.) Denyer's profile will have been raised by participation in the TV debate which I'd expect to help her (albeit only 5% of the population watched) Though it is a constituency where a substantial number of people will vote based on Palestine/Corbyn/Starmer/vibes, wether or not they're students or Muslims |
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Jun 10, 2024 10:14:32 GMT
Probably old news to most of you, but I think this was a reasonably balanced and informative (e.g. including constituency profile stats) look at the local campaign. The quote that stands out to me is this: Leaving aside the merits of the policy position for the moment, and I may be projecting my own views here, but while I'm sure Gaza will play a part, it seems to me unwise to make this the main focus of a campaign. This is not a majority Muslim electorate; it has a large student presence, but 70% of the population are not (and the student share may drop a little on polling day due to end of term and student lets.) Denyer's profile will have been raised by participation in the TV debate which I'd expect to help her (albeit only 5% of the population watched) Though it is a constituency where a substantial number of people will vote based on Palestine/Corbyn/Starmer/vibes, wether or not they're students or Muslims Definitely true up to a point, but I genuinely don't know where that point is. I suspect it is further back than the politically engaged think, but equally suspect that in Bristol Central it's further forward than in most. |
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carlton43
Reform Party
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Post by carlton43 on Jun 10, 2024 12:35:51 GMT
Just to be clear what is this from I fear some of our colleagues have chosen to fill the constituency section of the Forum with predictions which seem both premature and speculative. All predictions are speculative : It is their very nature. Much of human activity is premature! We are close enough to the event for people local to a set of seats to put up their projections, surely? I have welcomed them and look with interest whilst often not agreeing. We can tolerate these but reserve our strictureS for the sets of LAB GAIN, CON HOLD, TOO CLOSE TO CALL garbage that are usually not by a well-informed local but a chancer with a wet finger. |
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peterl
Green
Congratulations President Trump
Posts: 8,473
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Post by peterl on Jun 10, 2024 13:24:55 GMT
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Jun 10, 2024 13:28:18 GMT
No it doesn't, it shows thugs and twats have seen a cause they can pretend to support, so they can smash things up because that's all their tiny brains are capable of doing.
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,141
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Post by cogload on Jun 11, 2024 10:34:48 GMT
Have either Starmer or Rayner turned up here? If they have Debonnaire is in trouble, if they haven't she is safe.
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Post by gerrardwinstanley on Jun 11, 2024 10:46:10 GMT
Have either Starmer or Rayner turned up here? If they have Debonnaire is in trouble, if they haven't she is safe. Or the presence of Starmer and Rayner could make Debonnaire's situation worse. |
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Post by andrewp on Jun 11, 2024 10:52:26 GMT
Have either Starmer or Rayner turned up here? If they have Debonnaire is in trouble, if they haven't she is safe. I’m not sure here would be the best place to deploy Rayner |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jun 11, 2024 10:54:10 GMT
Have either Starmer or Rayner turned up here? If they have Debonnaire is in trouble, if they haven't she is safe. Bad idea. |
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Post by beesknee5 on Jun 17, 2024 18:06:59 GMT
Have either Starmer or Rayner turned up here? If they have Debonnaire is in trouble, if they haven't she is safe. Starmer at the Brizzle rovers ground today |
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,141
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Post by cogload on Jun 17, 2024 18:14:54 GMT
Have either Starmer or Rayner turned up here? If they have Debonnaire is in trouble, if they haven't she is safe. Starmer at the Brizzle rovers ground today That speaks volumes. |
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