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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 20, 2024 15:51:20 GMT
Hunt will need an act of God(aiming) to survive here. The once all-powerful Surrey Conservatives, who held all the seats in 1997, will be reduced to Ash here. I think it's finally time to Wave(rley) you goodbye by hiding your posts for the remainder of the election period (at least) |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jun 20, 2024 17:03:06 GMT
Hunt will need an act of God(aiming) to survive here. The once all-powerful Surrey Conservatives, who held all the seats in 1997, will be reduced to Ash here. I think it's finally time to Wave(rley) you goodbye by hiding your posts for the remainder of the election period (at least) Snowflake. |
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right
Conservative
Posts: 18,791
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Post by right on Jun 25, 2024 8:13:18 GMT
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Post by arabesque on Jun 25, 2024 22:52:18 GMT
Not sure that this article tells us much. The Guardian were never likely to run as a headline - "I hope Tory Chancellor wins".
They only report the views of those opposed to Hunt, including a LibDem councillor who (hardly surprisingly) is voting LibDem and a rather vulgar lecturer who doesn't know how to vote.
This seems like the most telling sentence in the article - "A lot of the voters the Guardian spoke to over several days in the constituency described Hunt as a good local MP, often seen at town and village events and supportive of local charities."
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Post by sirnorfolkpassmore on Jun 25, 2024 23:00:37 GMT
Not sure that this article tells us much. The Guardian were never likely to run as a headline - "I hope Tory Chancellor wins". They only report the views of those opposed to Hunt, including a LibDem councillor who (hardly surprisingly) is voting LibDem and a rather vulgar lecturer who doesn't know how to vote. This seems like the most telling sentence in the article - "A lot of the voters the Guardian spoke to over several days in the constituency described Hunt as a good local MP, often seen at town and village events and supportive of local charities." Indicative of the broader point that people generally don't like MPs, but do like their MP. Parties get that, and rarely name the sitting MP in literature unless there is some awful scandal. It's almost always the case that literature names the individual standing for them (who is, by the way, a representative of party X) who is standing against that awful party Y. Naming your opponent in literature is very rare. |
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,016
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Post by Khunanup on Jun 26, 2024 1:05:54 GMT
Not sure that this article tells us much. The Guardian were never likely to run as a headline - "I hope Tory Chancellor wins". They only report the views of those opposed to Hunt, including a LibDem councillor who (hardly surprisingly) is voting LibDem and a rather vulgar lecturer who doesn't know how to vote. This seems like the most telling sentence in the article - "A lot of the voters the Guardian spoke to over several days in the constituency described Hunt as a good local MP, often seen at town and village events and supportive of local charities." A hagiography repeated numerous times in 2015 before Lib Dem MPs got swept away in their constituencies. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jun 26, 2024 6:23:42 GMT
Lib Dems are going to sweep the board in Surrey (even in Runnymede) apart from Spelthorne and maybe East Surrey which both voted Leave. Change my mind.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jun 26, 2024 6:37:51 GMT
Not sure that this article tells us much. The Guardian were never likely to run as a headline - "I hope Tory Chancellor wins". They only report the views of those opposed to Hunt, including a LibDem councillor who (hardly surprisingly) is voting LibDem and a rather vulgar lecturer who doesn't know how to vote. This seems like the most telling sentence in the article - "A lot of the voters the Guardian spoke to over several days in the constituency described Hunt as a good local MP, often seen at town and village events and supportive of local charities." The Graun have probably never sent anyone here before, and were surprised to find that personal familiarity with Hunt might not reflect their own carefully-nurtured prejudices. |
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Post by batman on Jun 26, 2024 7:52:57 GMT
Lib Dems are going to sweep the board in Surrey (even in Runnymede) apart from Spelthorne and maybe East Surrey which both voted Leave. Change my mind. They certainly won't win Runnymede & Weybridge. Tory strength in most of Weybridge, Ottershaw & the villages should be sufficient to keep the seat though Labour will fancy themselves to build up a handy lead in Egham, and be competitive in Addlestone & (especially) Chertsey, & Englefield Green which has a strong (though not very left-wing) student population. Even in the case of Chertsey the southern fringes are quite safe Tory. I also don't think they will win Reigate which is turning into a surprisingly strong Lab/Con battle (Labour start in second). I wonder if Crispin Blunt, who can be pretty abrasive, actually had a negative personal vote which will no longer apply in this election. The other Surrey seats excluding the two you've already mentioned are all feasible, and some will definitely be won, though I doubt that they would make it in Epsom & Ewell either - the opposition vote will be split & probably the Tories limp home there. |
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,913
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Post by YL on Jun 26, 2024 11:09:38 GMT
Lib Dems are going to sweep the board in Surrey (even in Runnymede) apart from Spelthorne and maybe East Surrey which both voted Leave. Change my mind. They certainly won't win Runnymede & Weybridge. Tory strength in most of Weybridge, Ottershaw & the villages should be sufficient to keep the seat though Labour will fancy themselves to build up a handy lead in Egham, and be competitive in Addlestone & (especially) Chertsey, & Englefield Green which has a strong (though not very left-wing) student population. Even in the case of Chertsey the southern fringes are quite safe Tory. I also don't think they will win Reigate which is turning into a surprisingly strong Lab/Con battle (Labour start in second). I wonder if Crispin Blunt, who can be pretty abrasive, actually had a negative personal vote which will no longer apply in this election. The other Surrey seats excluding the two you've already mentioned are all feasible, and some will definitely be won, though I doubt that they would make it in Epsom & Ewell either - the opposition vote will be split & probably the Tories limp home there. Englefield Green won't help Labour in Runnymede & Weybridge, though it might in Windsor. (Boo to annoying cross county seats, especially ones whose names don't even tell you that they are.) |
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Post by islington on Jun 26, 2024 11:27:30 GMT
Lib Dems are going to sweep the board in Surrey (even in Runnymede) apart from Spelthorne and maybe East Surrey which both voted Leave. Change my mind. Why bother?
If you're right, your mind doesn't need changing.
And if you're wrong, tomorrow week the voters will do a far more effective job of changing your mind than I ever could.
Not long to go now.
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Post by gwynthegriff on Jun 26, 2024 11:44:06 GMT
Lib Dems are going to sweep the board in Surrey (even in Runnymede) apart from Spelthorne and maybe East Surrey which both voted Leave. Change my mind. I think party X will win all the seats in area Y. Except for where they don't. |
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Post by rogerg on Jun 26, 2024 12:03:21 GMT
Not sure that this article tells us much. The Guardian were never likely to run as a headline - "I hope Tory Chancellor wins". They only report the views of those opposed to Hunt, including a LibDem councillor who (hardly surprisingly) is voting LibDem and a rather vulgar lecturer who doesn't know how to vote. This seems like the most telling sentence in the article - "A lot of the voters the Guardian spoke to over several days in the constituency described Hunt as a good local MP, often seen at town and village events and supportive of local charities." Indicative of the broader point that people generally don't like MPs, but do like their MP. Parties get that, and rarely name the sitting MP in literature unless there is some awful scandal. It's almost always the case that literature names the individual standing for them (who is, by the way, a representative of party X) who is standing against that awful party Y. Naming your opponent in literature is very rare. But Hunt is the incumbent MP only for the Godalming bit of the constituency. The majority of electors are from Guidford and Surrey Heath and have never had Hunt as their MP. It really is the "bits left over" seat in Surrey (or at least west Surrey). I still don't know why he didn't go with Farnham & Boden which is a much tougher seat for Lib Dems as the councillor infrastructure and local presence is not there. |
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,142
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Post by cogload on Jun 29, 2024 19:43:23 GMT
Clever.
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Post by arabesque on Jun 29, 2024 22:07:31 GMT
Very positive canvassing today for Jeremy Hunt's team. Increasingly confident that they will pull it off with something to spare.
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,016
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Post by Khunanup on Jun 29, 2024 22:49:07 GMT
Very positive canvassing today for Jeremy Hunt's team. Increasingly confident that they will pull it off with something to spare. Is that a personal reflection or second hand? |
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msc
Non-Aligned
Posts: 910 
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Post by msc on Jun 29, 2024 23:20:21 GMT
Not sure that this article tells us much. The Guardian were never likely to run as a headline - "I hope Tory Chancellor wins". They only report the views of those opposed to Hunt, including a LibDem councillor who (hardly surprisingly) is voting LibDem and a rather vulgar lecturer who doesn't know how to vote. This seems like the most telling sentence in the article - "A lot of the voters the Guardian spoke to over several days in the constituency described Hunt as a good local MP, often seen at town and village events and supportive of local charities." A hagiography repeated numerous times in 2015 before Lib Dem MPs got swept away in their constituencies. In fact I can repeat it for you right now. A lot of voters over several days here described local SNP MP Chris Stephens as a good local MP, often approachable and supportive of local charities. Because it's true. He's also absolutely fucked, election wise. As are almost certainly a number of locally popular Tory MPs fighting a tsunami. |
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Post by arabesque on Jun 29, 2024 23:35:38 GMT
Very positive canvassing today for Jeremy Hunt's team. Increasingly confident that they will pull it off with something to spare. Is that a personal reflection or second hand? Two contacts in the constituency that I spoke to independently today because I'm considering a Paddy Power special which involves the constituency. |
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Post by monksfield on Jun 30, 2024 6:58:09 GMT
Is that a personal reflection or second hand? Two contacts in the constituency that I spoke to independently today because I'm considering a Paddy Power special which involves the constituency. You can have 10/3 with PP the single right now. Fill your boots if that’s your view. All I ask is that you post your receipts here so we know it wasn’t just a spot of ramping. Nice handle too - Arabesque last night was the highlight of Glasto so far. |
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Post by willpower3 on Jun 30, 2024 7:51:51 GMT
Two contacts in the constituency that I spoke to independently today because I'm considering a Paddy Power special which involves the constituency. You can have 10/3 with PP the single right now. Fill your boots if that’s your view. All I ask is that you post your receipts here so we know it wasn’t just a spot of ramping. Nice handle too - Arabesque last night was the highlight of Glasto so far. I would point out that the odds could well move on the basis of this particular report. Constituency betting markets don't tend to have a lot of liquidity. On the Betfair Exchange there is just over £3,500 matched. A few people (after seeing the above report) sticking even a modest amount on probably would shift the odds. |
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