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Post by batman on May 27, 2024 16:07:22 GMT
I don’t have any special knowledge of the seat or area but I kind of get the feeling that there’s so much confidence about Hunt losing it may not actually happen, even simply if it forces the Tories to fight the seat very hard as losing the sitting a Chancellor would be an embarrassment in itself even though the overall defeat is certain anyway many expected him to lose in his first election, in 2005, when he was defending a wafer-thin majority bequeathed to him by Virginia Bottomley. In the event he won by 6000. It is likely to be close, surely. |
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stb12
Top Poster
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Post by stb12 on May 27, 2024 16:08:41 GMT
There can’t be many of many examples of the four great offices of state holders losing their own elections
Two sitting PMs in Australia have been unseated before
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stb12
Top Poster
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Post by stb12 on May 27, 2024 16:10:11 GMT
I don’t have any special knowledge of the seat or area but I kind of get the feeling that there’s so much confidence about Hunt losing it may not actually happen, even simply if it forces the Tories to fight the seat very hard as losing the sitting a Chancellor would be an embarrassment in itself even though the overall defeat is certain anyway many expected him to lose in his first election, in 2005, when he was defending a wafer-thin majority bequeathed to him by Virginia Bottomley. In the event he won by 6000. It is likely to be close, surely. Although overall fortunes haven’t changed there may be some respect amongst traditional Conservatives for Hunt taking on the job of stabilising the economy after what happened with Truss and Kwarteng? |
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Post by finsobruce on May 27, 2024 16:25:29 GMT
many expected him to lose in his first election, in 2005, when he was defending a wafer-thin majority bequeathed to him by Virginia Bottomley. In the event he won by 6000. It is likely to be close, surely. Although overall fortunes haven’t changed there may be some respect amongst traditional Conservatives for Hunt taking on the job of stabilising the economy after what happened with Truss and Kwarteng? If he survives the election, I think he would be a reasonable bet for the leadership , having held high offices (regardless of how we think he's performed in them) and being dry enough for one side of the party and not lunatic enough to alienate the other side. |
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steve
Non-Aligned
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Post by steve on May 27, 2024 16:54:44 GMT
With Godalming firmly in the LD camp where will Hunt look to pile up the votes? Ash? The Lib Dems did well there in last year's Guildford BC elections. |
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Clark
Forum Regular
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Post by Clark on May 27, 2024 16:58:57 GMT
The Lib Dems look strong in Godalming but also do well in Ash, Cranleigh and Chiddingfold.
Of course, the challenge is to know how much of this is transferred back to the Tories when it comes to the General Election.
My guess would be they (Cons) carry them all apart from the majority of the Godalming wards.
All other areas look strongly Tory.
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Post by batman on May 27, 2024 17:42:42 GMT
Although overall fortunes haven’t changed there may be some respect amongst traditional Conservatives for Hunt taking on the job of stabilising the economy after what happened with Truss and Kwarteng? If he survives the election, I think he would be a reasonable bet for the leadership , having held high offices (regardless of how we think he's performed in them) and being dry enough for one side of the party and not lunatic enough to alienate the other side. he would, were it not for the fact that for the Tory grassroots who decide these things he is not anything like far enough to the Right. His only chance is an uncontested coronation, and that surely won't happen. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on May 27, 2024 19:38:34 GMT
Hunt is also significantly more unpopular with the general public than the other potential leadership candidates, and has been since he was Health Secretary.
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Post by finsobruce on May 27, 2024 19:45:49 GMT
Hunt is also significantly more unpopular with the general public than the other potential leadership candidates, and has been since he was Health Secretary. This may well be true, but the general public have no say in the matter. |
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Post by batman on May 27, 2024 20:22:16 GMT
nor would it influence Conservative Party members, in all likelihood.
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Post by johnloony on May 27, 2024 20:32:37 GMT
I don’t have any special knowledge of the seat or area but I kind of get the feeling that there’s so much confidence about Hunt losing it may not actually happen, even simply if it forces the Tories to fight the seat very hard as losing the sitting a Chancellor would be an embarrassment in itself even though the overall defeat is certain anyway If rumour and expectation get too hyped up about the prospect of prominent people being defeated, like in 1997, then it might fall flat and people like Hunt might survive like (frig zumple) Michael Howard did in 1997. |
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Post by adlai52 on May 27, 2024 20:49:22 GMT
I don’t have any special knowledge of the seat or area but I kind of get the feeling that there’s so much confidence about Hunt losing it may not actually happen, even simply if it forces the Tories to fight the seat very hard as losing the sitting a Chancellor would be an embarrassment in itself even though the overall defeat is certain anyway If rumour and expectation get too hyped up about the prospect of prominent people being defeated, like in 1997, then it might fall flat and people like Hunt might survive like (frig zumple) Michael Howard did in 1997. You also see the Westminster bubble/lobby substituting expectations and vibes for actual intel on the ground - right now there is lots of very confident briefing from journalists that LibDems will pick up previously safe Tory seats in the Home Counties and Thames Valley... but this would be a heck of a breakthrough even off the back of strong local election results. |
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Ports
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Post by Ports on Jun 8, 2024 10:08:20 GMT
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jun 11, 2024 10:08:28 GMT
Hunt is also significantly more unpopular with the general public than the other potential leadership candidates, and has been since he was Health Secretary. Noting the Ipsos poll today that shows lots of anger about Truss - of those who feel the economy is getting better, 39 per cent named Jeremy Hunt as the reason why. Food for thought at least. |
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,142
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Post by cogload on Jun 12, 2024 8:50:28 GMT
Jeremy Hunt is interviewed by Bloomberg on his chances. He reckons there will be 1500 votes in it.
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Ports
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Post by Ports on Jun 12, 2024 9:21:02 GMT
Whether true or not I'm not sure that's the message he'd want? Would there not be just as many Lab/Green voters who would vote Lib Dem tactically upon hearing this as Reform voters or non-voters who dislike the Lib Dems that much?
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
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Post by Tony Otim on Jun 12, 2024 9:50:28 GMT
Yep, he is kind of writing the Lib Dem leaflets for them.
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
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Post by cogload on Jun 12, 2024 12:23:50 GMT
If half of the voters in a Surrey village don't know which way they are going to vote halfway through an election campaign and you are the (notional) defending MP..I would say you are in deep deep trouble...
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Post by carlton43 on Jun 12, 2024 13:41:49 GMT
If half of the voters in a Surrey village don't know which way they are going to vote halfway through an election campaign and you are the (notional) defending MP..I would say you are in deep deep trouble... Doesn't say much for his opposition either does it? Why are they still uncertain? What is putting them off your utter shower? |
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Ports
Non-Aligned
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Post by Ports on Jun 12, 2024 14:45:32 GMT
I think the point is that if half the voters are undecided, based on current polling most of those are likely to have voted for him before and are now turning away. So even if other parties haven't convinced them yet, they haven't lost anything.
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