stb12
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Post by stb12 on Mar 13, 2024 23:48:35 GMT
Godalming and Ash
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bsjmcr
Non-Aligned
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Post by bsjmcr on Mar 31, 2024 22:43:32 GMT
All eyes and cameras will be set here for what could be one of the most high-profile scalps, barring a non-zero chance of a last minute stand-down, as has even been increasingly suggested re. the yet-to-be-officially-confirmed Conservative candidate for Richmond and Northallerton...
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
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Post by YL on Apr 13, 2024 8:45:37 GMT
Constituency poll by Survation, carried out 16 to 20 February 2024
Lib Dem 35%
Conservative 29%
Labour 23%
Reform UK 8%
Green 3%
Other 2%
Unlike the two Welsh constituency polls they did, candidates do not appear to have been named in this poll.
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Post by Wisconsin on May 22, 2024 18:30:04 GMT
We may yet get our Portillo moment:
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batman
Labour
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Post by batman on May 22, 2024 18:36:21 GMT
Hunt to extinction?
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Clark
Forum Regular
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Post by Clark on May 22, 2024 18:45:29 GMT
I fancy Hunt will be okay. Labour's notional 7% isn't really squeezable and should actually improve with the national wave. Waverley district was 58% remain so Lib Dems were probably artificially high in the 'Brexit 2019 election'. Those are 2 factors are in Hunt's favour next time where Brexit is less of an issue.
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Post by carolus on May 22, 2024 18:46:59 GMT
I expect he will be okay - there are too many other, more plausible LD targets in Surrey, Berkshire etc. Though of course I hope he loses!
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Terry Weldon
Lib Dem
Councilor, Waverley BC and Haslemere TC. Lifelong liberal, in S Africa and now UK
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Post by Terry Weldon on May 22, 2024 19:34:23 GMT
We may yet get our Portillo moment: The point of the "Portillo moment" was that it came as such a surprise. A possible Hunt loss has been widely discussed, so it won't be a surprise, won't qualify as a Portillo moment. If a senior cabinet member loses in a supposedly safe seat - that will be a Portillo moment |
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Terry Weldon
Lib Dem
Councilor, Waverley BC and Haslemere TC. Lifelong liberal, in S Africa and now UK
Posts: 307
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Post by Terry Weldon on May 22, 2024 19:37:10 GMT
I expect he will be okay - there are too many other, more plausible LD targets in Surrey, Berkshire etc. Though of course I hope he loses! The local LD team are working exceptionally hard, Paul Follows has a strong personal following in Godalming, and there is widespread anti-Tory feeling in the constituency. I think Hunt will have a really tough task. |
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Post by Wisconsin on May 22, 2024 19:38:03 GMT
What’s the term for this then? A Chris Patten moment?
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on May 22, 2024 19:41:50 GMT
What’s the term for this then? A Chris Patten moment? A sitting Chancellor would probably be considered a bigger deal than party Chairman, so if it happens maybe become a term in itself |
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batman
Labour
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Post by batman on May 22, 2024 20:06:59 GMT
It would be unique surely. At least within living memory
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Post by Ron Swanson on May 27, 2024 12:56:36 GMT
Raab was pretty close to being scalped last time.
Though of course the backdrop of the election was different to that of 1992 or 1997, being a Brexit election… and he being a very prominent leave supporter.
I’m not sure which potential casualties would represent the modern Portillo moment - someone with a big profile, with a majority larger than the likely national swing.
I’d love it to be Liz Truss. Or Braverman.
On this one, I expect Hunt to lose, he’ll no doubt be expected to do some ‘national’ campaigning as a senior minister… rather than spending all his time in the seat banging on the doors.
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
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Post by cogload on May 27, 2024 13:36:56 GMT
With Godalming firmly in the LD camp where will Hunt look to pile up the votes?
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Post by johnloony on May 27, 2024 13:40:15 GMT
With Godalming firmly in the LD camp where will Hunt look to pile up the votes? Ash? |
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Merseymike
Independent
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Post by Merseymike on May 27, 2024 13:43:08 GMT
With Godalming firmly in the LD camp where will Hunt look to pile up the votes? Lose |
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on May 27, 2024 15:42:40 GMT
I don’t have any special knowledge of the seat or area but I kind of get the feeling that there’s so much confidence about Hunt losing it may not actually happen, even simply if it forces the Tories to fight the seat very hard as losing the sitting a Chancellor would be an embarrassment in itself even though the overall defeat is certain anyway
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on May 27, 2024 15:46:55 GMT
With Godalming firmly in the LD camp where will Hunt look to pile up the votes? Ash? Literally tittered out loud. |
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on May 27, 2024 15:52:51 GMT
I don’t have any special knowledge of the seat or area but I kind of get the feeling that there’s so much confidence about Hunt losing it may not actually happen, even simply if it forces the Tories to fight the seat very hard as losing the sitting a Chancellor would be an embarrassment in itself even though the overall defeat is certain anyway There’s certainly no guarantee of Hunt losing, he could easily hold on. |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
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Post by Sibboleth on May 27, 2024 15:53:39 GMT
Someone will doubtless correct me if I wrong (which is possible), but I think the last sitting Chancellor to be unseated at a General Election was William Harcourt who lost at Derby in 1895?
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