Tatton

[batman]

When the seat was first formed, it included Northwich, so it was less heavily Conservative in real terms than it subsequently became.

[bsjmcr]

Jul 29, 2024 12:57:51 GMT batman said:

When the seat was first formed, it included Northwich, so it was less heavily Conservative in real terms than it subsequently became.

Would it have included Northwich in 1992? If so that makes the extent of Hamilton’s loss all the more surprising. It was still 55% Tory in 1992 despite Northwich and goes to show that it wasn’t ‘just’ the LD/Labour stepping down that helped Bell because adding their votes in 1992 together would not have been enough to unseat Hamilton - and swapping Northwich for Alderley Edge would have made it even notionally safer in 1997!

[batman]

Have just double-checked, and it definitely did.

[YL]

Jul 30, 2024 11:47:26 GMT bsjmcr said:

Jul 29, 2024 12:57:51 GMT batman said:

When the seat was first formed, it included Northwich, so it was less heavily Conservative in real terms than it subsequently became.

Would it have included Northwich in 1992? If so that makes the extent of Hamilton’s loss all the more surprising. It was still 55% Tory in 1992 despite Northwich and goes to show that it wasn’t ‘just’ the LD/Labour stepping down that helped Bell because adding their votes in 1992 together would not have been enough to unseat Hamilton - and swapping Northwich for Alderley Edge would have made it even notionally safer in 1997!

The notional 1992 majority was certainly increased by the boundary changes. There is a file on the Electoral Calculus site which gives the notional 1992 result on the 1997 boundaries as Con 32235, Lab 9870, LD 9387, Other 350. (Other would be “Feudal Party” in Tatton and Natural Law in the parts coming from Macclesfield.)

[Pete Whitehead]

Jul 30, 2024 12:06:27 GMT batman said:

Have just double-checked, and it definitely did.

Why did you need to 'double'check'? You knew that the seat was created in 1983 with Northwich included in it and that aside from in Milton Keynes there were no boundary changes before the 1992 election.

[batman]

just in case my ageing brain was playing tricks on me. it has occasionally of late.