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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 8, 2024 22:57:07 GMT
Labour's candidate had little (certainly recent) connection to the seat, which maybe didn't help very much. Sad to see you amplify what was hyped up and pretty unfair criticism by McVey. |
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edgbaston
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Tatton
Jul 9, 2024 0:22:45 GMT
Post by edgbaston on Jul 9, 2024 0:22:45 GMT
Indeed we had an excellent candidate who was more than local enough
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 9, 2024 13:27:10 GMT
Labour's candidate had little (certainly recent) connection to the seat, which maybe didn't help very much. Sad to see you amplify what was hyped up and pretty unfair criticism by McVey. My apologies, but it wasn't the sitting MP that I got that from. I suppose its frustration that we weren't quite able to take McVey out, unlike her partner. |
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Post by elinorhelyn on Jul 24, 2024 21:24:48 GMT
We won Wilmslow but not Knutsford.
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bsjmcr
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Post by bsjmcr on Jul 24, 2024 21:39:53 GMT
We won Wilmslow but not Knutsford. What about Lymm? From what I can see in boundary changes it was brought in but no part of old Tatton had left - with a majority of just over 1,000, would Lymm have made all the difference? |
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john07
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Tatton
Jul 24, 2024 23:32:49 GMT
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Post by john07 on Jul 24, 2024 23:32:49 GMT
We won Wilmslow but not Knutsford. I can certainly see that Handforth has been moving towards Labour in recent years and may well have tipped it towards Labour in a General Election turnout. Labour scored 16% of the vote in 2023 compared to around 7% each for the Lib Dem’s and Conservatives. Labour only put up one candidate for a two member ward. The independent candidates took both seats by a huge margin. Labour didn’t even contest any of the Wilmslow wards. All were won by the Residents of Wilmslow. Large votes for independents in local elections do not necessarily preclude a Labour vote in a general election. In the rather dodgy Ward Level Winner Estimates, Labour took Handforth and Lacey Green wards while the Tories took Dean Row, East, plus West & Chorley. The problem is that the Labour votes must have come from somewhere. Labour didn’t come remotely near winning a single ward in Tatton in recent local elections yet only lost out by just over a thousand votes. The most obvious sources are Knutsford, High Legh, and Shakerley. |
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Tatton
Jul 24, 2024 23:38:26 GMT
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Post by elinorhelyn on Jul 24, 2024 23:38:26 GMT
We won Wilmslow but not Knutsford. I can certainly see that Handforth has been moving towards Labour in recent years and may well have tipped it towards Labour in a General Election turnout. Labour scored 16% of the vote in 2023 compared to around 7% each for the Lib Dem’s and Conservatives. Labour only put up one candidate for a two member ward. The independent candidates took both seats by a huge margin. Labour didn’t even contest any of the Wilmslow wards. All were won by the Residents of Wilmslow. Large votes for independents in local elections do not necessarily preclude a Labour vote in a general election. In the rather dodgy Ward Level Winner Estimates, Labour took Handforth and Lacey Green wards while the Tories took Dean Row, East, plus West & Chorley. The problem is that the Labour votes must have come from somewhere. Labour didn’t come remotely near winning a single ward in Tatton in recent local elections yet only lost out by just over a thousand votes. The most obvious sources are Knutsford, Morbury, and Shakerley. We won Handforth, Wilmslow and Alderley Edge but Tory vote in Knutsford and the surrounding villages (just) won them the day. |
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Post by bjornhattan on Jul 25, 2024 1:19:36 GMT
I can certainly see that Handforth has been moving towards Labour in recent years and may well have tipped it towards Labour in a General Election turnout. Labour scored 16% of the vote in 2023 compared to around 7% each for the Lib Dem’s and Conservatives. Labour only put up one candidate for a two member ward. The independent candidates took both seats by a huge margin. Labour didn’t even contest any of the Wilmslow wards. All were won by the Residents of Wilmslow. Large votes for independents in local elections do not necessarily preclude a Labour vote in a general election. In the rather dodgy Ward Level Winner Estimates, Labour took Handforth and Lacey Green wards while the Tories took Dean Row, East, plus West & Chorley. The problem is that the Labour votes must have come from somewhere. Labour didn’t come remotely near winning a single ward in Tatton in recent local elections yet only lost out by just over a thousand votes. The most obvious sources are Knutsford, Morbury, and Shakerley. We won Handforth, Wilmslow and Alderley Edge but Tory vote in Knutsford and the surrounding villages (just) won them the day. Labour winning Alderley Edge. That's end of days stuff! |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jul 25, 2024 6:40:40 GMT
Labour would probably be advised to improve their council game if they want to hit this one in future.
That said, winning Alderley Edge feels like a one-time deal. Unless the Tories choose a headbanger.
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Merseymike
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Tatton
Jul 25, 2024 7:40:13 GMT
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Post by Merseymike on Jul 25, 2024 7:40:13 GMT
Labour would probably be advised to improve their council game if they want to hit this one in future. That said, winning Alderley Edge feels like a one-time deal. Unless the Tories choose a headbanger. But the Tories are a headbanger. McVey. |
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Sibboleth
Labour
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Post by Sibboleth on Jul 25, 2024 7:56:02 GMT
The result here was strange and there are obvious signs of tactical voting, so it's quite possible that lower level results were odd. I wonder if - as at N.W. Essex - part of the issue was the incumbent specifically.
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Tatton
Jul 25, 2024 7:59:53 GMT
Post by batman on Jul 25, 2024 7:59:53 GMT
Labour would probably be advised to improve their council game if they want to hit this one in future. That said, winning Alderley Edge feels like a one-time deal. Unless the Tories choose a headbanger. But the Tories are a headbanger. McVey. Yes, she is a headbanger. It could be a reason why it was so close this time. I don't think she's a good fit for this seat - having said that, there aren't that many seats she would be a good fit for. I am surprised to hear that Knutsford is more Conservative than Wilmslow. I'd have thought it would be the other way round. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jul 25, 2024 8:19:29 GMT
Labour would probably be advised to improve their council game if they want to hit this one in future. That said, winning Alderley Edge feels like a one-time deal. Unless the Tories choose a headbanger. But the Tories are a headbanger. McVey. As a leader, sorry. But I don't think she's a good fit for the constituency either. This is a seat where a standard pro-business Tory wins and holds easily every time. They don't like controversy, they don't give a shit about anything that smells of culture wars. Tatton's residents are much mocked for being driven by money, but history shows that the Tories take a beating when they forget that. |
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Post by elinorhelyn on Jul 25, 2024 8:20:09 GMT
But the Tories are a headbanger. McVey. Yes, she is a headbanger. It could be a reason why it was so close this time. I don't think she's a good fit for this seat - having said that, there aren't that many seats she would be a good fit for. I am surprised to hear that Knutsford is more Conservative than Wilmslow. I'd have thought it would be the other way round. The railway line from Manchester runs through Wilmslow so it has more working age commuters (i.e people who moved out of Manchester) where as Knutsford is more older and settled. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jul 25, 2024 8:24:01 GMT
But the Tories are a headbanger. McVey. Yes, she is a headbanger. It could be a reason why it was so close this time. I don't think she's a good fit for this seat - having said that, there aren't that many seats she would be a good fit for. I am surprised to hear that Knutsford is more Conservative than Wilmslow. I'd have thought it would be the other way round. I reckon Lacey Green and similar give Wilmslow that slightly different profile to Knutsford. Not that Knutsford is monolithically posh either. |
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Merseymike
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Tatton
Jul 25, 2024 8:30:32 GMT
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Post by Merseymike on Jul 25, 2024 8:30:32 GMT
Yes, she is a headbanger. It could be a reason why it was so close this time. I don't think she's a good fit for this seat - having said that, there aren't that many seats she would be a good fit for. I am surprised to hear that Knutsford is more Conservative than Wilmslow. I'd have thought it would be the other way round. I reckon Lacey Green and similar give Wilmslow that slightly different profile to Knutsford. Not that Knutsford is monolithically posh either. There is a council estate , Colshaw, in Wilmslow - I suppose Handforth is less "posh" |
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Tatton
Jul 25, 2024 8:35:20 GMT
Post by matureleft on Jul 25, 2024 8:35:20 GMT
But the Tories are a headbanger. McVey. As a leader, sorry. But I don't think she's a good fit for the constituency either. This is a seat where a standard pro-business Tory wins and holds easily every time. They don't like controversy, they don't give a shit about anything that smells of culture wars. Tatton's residents are much mocked for being driven by money, but history shows that the Tories take a beating when they forget that. So not that worried about the ECHR for example, which seems a defining issue? |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jul 25, 2024 8:36:27 GMT
Yes, she is a headbanger. It could be a reason why it was so close this time. I don't think she's a good fit for this seat - having said that, there aren't that many seats she would be a good fit for. I am surprised to hear that Knutsford is more Conservative than Wilmslow. I'd have thought it would be the other way round. The railway line from Manchester runs through Wilmslow so it has more working age commuters (i.e people who moved out of Manchester) where as Knutsford is more older and settled. Knutsford is commuter territory too (it's only just down the line from Altrincham). Wilmslow has a more entrenched population with larger local employers. It isn't uncommon to meet entire families in Wilmslow who work for the same company and always have done. Knutsford's big local employer is the giant Barclays site at Radbroke Hall which drags in people from all over. My take would be: - Wilmslow is larger than Knutsford and has more pockets of deprivation. - Wilmslow is effectively an extension of the Manchester conurbation. Especially as the bottom parts of Cheadle have been infilled. And if you count Handforth as well, it's pretty much a solid urban area from the centre of Manchester down to the top of Alderley Edge now. And more housing is planned. I suspect that this is also why Labour have emerged as the major challengers here (and Macclesfield), and the Lib Dems don't have any traction. Unlike Cheadle. Which doesn't have anywhere like Lacey Green, or Handforth, or Colshaw Farm. |
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bsjmcr
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Post by bsjmcr on Jul 25, 2024 8:43:11 GMT
The result here was strange and there are obvious signs of tactical voting, so it's quite possible that lower level results were odd. I wonder if - as at N.W. Essex - part of the issue was the incumbent specifically. I’d argue there wasn’t enough tactical voting and it had gone wrong - yes the LD vote share went down, but not enough, and the Greens went up, both saved their deposit (in a strong tactical voting situation both should really have lost their deposits). Clearly there are still too many people here that would never vote Labour, it is in their DNA. As for Knutsford, I’m not surprised the Tories held there, I’ve always found it to be ‘nicer’ than Wilmslow which is much bigger with more characterless housing estates and not as leafy roads and not much green space. A bit like Sale, which I’ve always found a bit overrated. Knutsford town centre has more charm though it is undoubtedly helped by having Tatton Park on its doorstep. As everyone knows Tatton showed great sense in 1997 and it’s a shame McVey didn’t get “Truss’d” for all her appearances and posturing on telly as opposed to being in the constituency - only appearing to turn up at the last minute to take selfies next to potholes being repaired… |
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Tatton
Jul 25, 2024 8:44:44 GMT
Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 25, 2024 8:44:44 GMT
Knutsford Over used to be a good Labour ward
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