Tatton

[bsjmcr]

Also could be said that there is an alternative universe out there where Osborne is very comfortably re-elected here and Tory leader/PM in a 2020/2021 general election… and the Northern Powerhouse becomes a reality…

[Devil Wincarnate]

Jul 25, 2024 8:35:20 GMT matureleft said:

Jul 25, 2024 8:19:29 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

As a leader, sorry. But I don't think she's a good fit for the constituency either. This is a seat where a standard pro-business Tory wins and holds easily every time. They don't like controversy, they don't give a shit about anything that smells of culture wars. Tatton's residents are much mocked for being driven by money, but history shows that the Tories take a beating when they forget that.

So not that worried about the ECHR for example, which seems a defining issue?

I'd be shocked if the average Conservative voter in Tatton gives a stuff.

Purely anecdotally of course, but the Tory voters I know in Tatton, Cheadle, Hazel Grove etc all think of things like the ECHR as a sideshow. Economic competence is what matters.

If you knocked on a door in Alderley Edge and started talking about the ECHR, or gender identity, or whatever - you'd watch eyes glaze over very quickly.

[aargauer]

I still find it hard to believe that Labour carried Alderley Edge, which is surely more Conservative than Wilmslow. 

What I would have expected is Labour winning Handforth easily and also winning Wilmslow more marginally, Knutsford being close, and the rest of the seat still fairly heavily Tory.

[Dave Morgan]

Jul 25, 2024 9:08:09 GMT aargauer said:

I still find it hard to believe that Labour carried Alderley Edge, which is surely more Conservative than Wilmslow. 

What I would have expected is Labour winning Wilmslow, Knutsford being close, and the rest of the seat still fairly heavily Tory.

Could be accounted for by postal vote take up differentials. PVs make it difficult to be sure of where you carry now.

[The Bishop]

Jul 25, 2024 8:47:33 GMT bsjmcr said:

Also could be said that there is an alternative universe out there where Osborne is very comfortably re-elected here and Tory leader/PM in a 2020/2021 general election… and the Northern Powerhouse becomes a reality…

Osborne was never becoming Tory leader/PM, even in an "alternate universe" where we vote Remain in 2016. Too many enemies inside and outside the party.

[where2travel]

Jul 25, 2024 9:08:09 GMT aargauer said:

I still find it hard to believe that Labour carried Alderley Edge, which is surely more Conservative than Wilmslow. 

What I would have expected is Labour winning Wilmslow, Knutsford being close, and the rest of the seat still fairly heavily Tory.

Yes, that was my reaction for Alderley Edge. Although residents have got used to voting for Independents in local elections by enormous margins, I'd expect it to be strongly Tory back at a General Election.

Based on the results, I could easily see Labour winning Handforth and parts of Wilmslow quite easily, Knutsford being close as you say and everywhere else pretty strongly Tory still. I don't know if that balance gets to the tight result overall though.

[The Bishop]

Jul 25, 2024 8:47:53 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

Jul 25, 2024 8:35:20 GMT matureleft said:

So not that worried about the ECHR for example, which seems a defining issue?

I'd be shocked if the average Conservative voter in Tatton gives a stuff.

Purely anecdotally of course, but the Tory voters I know in Tatton, Cheadle, Hazel Grove etc all think of things like the ECHR as a sideshow. Economic competence is what matters.

If you knocked on a door in Alderley Edge and started talking about the ECHR, or gender identity, or whatever - you'd watch eyes glaze over very quickly.

Don't forget McVey's big pre-election cause - WOKE LANYARDS! I wonder how well that went down locally in a pragmatic business friendly area.

[john07]

Jul 25, 2024 9:08:09 GMT aargauer said:

I still find it hard to believe that Labour carried Alderley Edge, which is surely more Conservative than Wilmslow. 

What I would have expected is Labour winning Wilmslow, Knutsford being close, and the rest of the seat still fairly heavily Tory.

At least Labour often puts a candidate up in local elections in Alderley Edge, unlike Wilmslow where participation is patchy. Both have been dominated recently by Alderley Edge First and Residents of Wilmslow candidates.

Maybe the dominance of local groups in Handforth and Wilmslow has masked the decline in Conservative support?

Strange as it sounds, Labour could not have got as close in the Constituency as they did without carrying huge swathes of Wilmslow and also parts of Knutsford.

[Devil Wincarnate]

Jul 25, 2024 10:13:27 GMT The Bishop said:

Jul 25, 2024 8:47:53 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

I'd be shocked if the average Conservative voter in Tatton gives a stuff.

Purely anecdotally of course, but the Tory voters I know in Tatton, Cheadle, Hazel Grove etc all think of things like the ECHR as a sideshow. Economic competence is what matters.

If you knocked on a door in Alderley Edge and started talking about the ECHR, or gender identity, or whatever - you'd watch eyes glaze over very quickly.

Don't forget McVey's big pre-election cause - WOKE LANYARDS! I wonder how well that went down locally in a pragmatic business friendly area.

Yes, that was laughable. More than one person expressed that view that whilst you might get irritated by attention-seekers at work, you don't want that presented to you as an issue requiring government's energy.

[elinorhelyn]

Demographic changes and the tactical vote being more efficient means even if Labour aren't in landslide territory next time its well within their reach. This is essentially Altrincham of 2028/9

[Deleted]

I'm not sure this is really a constituency where Labour can grow that much further. While there are quite a few seats where further Labour growth could potentially overtake a Tory recovery next time I don't think this is likely to be one of them

[aargauer]

Jul 25, 2024 10:29:53 GMT elinorhelyn said:

Demographic changes and the tactical vote being more efficient means even if Labour aren't in landslide territory next time its well within their reach. This is essentially Altrincham of 2028/9

Reform were second here.

[Merseymike]

Eh? Reform came third. Not very good results.

[elinorhelyn]

Jul 25, 2024 10:50:22 GMT aargauer said:

Jul 25, 2024 10:29:53 GMT elinorhelyn said:

Demographic changes and the tactical vote being more efficient means even if Labour aren't in landslide territory next time its well within their reach. This is essentially Altrincham of 2028/9

Reform were second here.

Calculate Con+Ref vs Labour+LD+Green

[aargauer]

Jul 25, 2024 10:54:10 GMT elinorhelyn said:

Jul 25, 2024 10:50:22 GMT aargauer said:

Reform were second here.

Calculate Con+Ref vs Labour+LD+Green

Literally 50.1 to 49.9

If the liberal democrat voters weren't willing to tactically vote labour in 2024, they never will be. In a seat like this, its pretty questionable whether most would even support labour over the tories.

[Pete Whitehead]

Jul 25, 2024 10:54:10 GMT elinorhelyn said:

Jul 25, 2024 10:50:22 GMT aargauer said:

Reform were second here.

Calculate Con+Ref vs Labour+LD+Green

Well it's 50/50 right left if you want to look at it that way, which is still well to the right of the nation. If it follows the Altrincham trajectory you're going to have to wait a while yet. Labour came very clsoe there in 1997, slipped back a bit in 2001 and then it moved back to relative safety for the Conservatives (though not as safe as it had been prior to 1997).
Where did you get the info about Labour carrying Alderley Edge btw? Is that from the count or one of these random projections?

[Devil Wincarnate]

Jul 25, 2024 10:29:53 GMT elinorhelyn said:

Demographic changes and the tactical vote being more efficient means even if Labour aren't in landslide territory next time its well within their reach. This is essentially Altrincham of 2028/9

Hmmm... I'm not convinced the demographic change is anywhere near the same rate as Alty has been, and can't be, given the constraint of the Green Belt. A shift in voting habits, maybe. The population churn is much lower than Alty, Cheadle or Hazel Grove. The only real demographic change is creeping gentrification and infill housing around Handforth, but that's not enough to change the profile.

But despite being neighbours, Tatton and A&SW are very, very different.

Next time out might be very different. This is probably as low as the Tories get, Labour will have the usual backlash of government, and Reform probably have hit their ceiling.

[gwynthegriff]

Jul 25, 2024 10:24:53 GMT john07 said:

Jul 25, 2024 9:08:09 GMT aargauer said:

I still find it hard to believe that Labour carried Alderley Edge, which is surely more Conservative than Wilmslow. 

What I would have expected is Labour winning Wilmslow, Knutsford being close, and the rest of the seat still fairly heavily Tory.

At least Labour often puts a candidate up in local elections in Alderley Edge, unlike Wilmslow where participation is patchy. Both have been dominated recently by Alderley Edge First and Residents of Wilmslow candidates.

Maybe the dominance of local groups in Handforth and Wilmslow has masked the decline in Conservative support?

Strange as it sounds, Labour could not have got as close in the Constituency as they did without carrying huge swathes of Wilmslow and also parts of Knutsford.

Wilmslow also returned Lib Dem councillors in fairly recent times.

[Rural Radical]

Jul 25, 2024 7:59:53 GMT batman said:

Jul 25, 2024 7:40:13 GMT Merseymike said:

But the Tories are a headbanger. McVey.

Yes, she is a headbanger. It could be a reason why it was so close this time. I don't think she's a good fit for this seat - having said that, there aren't that many seats she would be a good fit for.

I am surprised to hear that Knutsford is more Conservative than Wilmslow. I'd have thought it would be the other way round. 

I would say that Wilmslow would be stronger for us

[Foggy]

Jul 25, 2024 1:19:36 GMT bjornhattan said:

Jul 24, 2024 23:38:26 GMT elinorhelyn said:

We won Handforth, Wilmslow and Alderley Edge but Tory vote in Knutsford and the surrounding villages (just) won them the day.

Labour winning Alderley Edge. That's end of days stuff!

Well, the most famous residents of Alderley Edge are probably members of a union, after all.

Jul 25, 2024 11:11:19 GMT aargauer said:

Jul 25, 2024 10:54:10 GMT elinorhelyn said:

Calculate Con+Ref vs Labour+LD+Green

Literally 50.1 to 49.9

Feels like an Aussie-style two-party preferred result!