nyx
Non-Aligned
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Post by nyx on Jun 23, 2024 16:37:21 GMT
How well is Feinstein doing? Here's Survation's constituency poll to tell us.  Much as I expected. Not competitive but Starmer still down on the 2019 result. |
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Post by johnloony on Jun 23, 2024 19:58:06 GMT
To (mis)quote G.K. Chesterton, "Smile at us, pay us, pass us, but never forget, we are the people of Holborn & St Pancras, and we have not spoken yet" If that is some sort of eternal truth, then surely the people of (H and St P) will never speak (in the way you hope) The original is a line from “The Secret People” by G.K. Chesterton, which (as it happens) is my favourite poem, and is one of the poems which I have learnt by memory and which I recite regularly (despite being 60 lines long (6 minutes)). The main theme of the poem is that the people of England (i.e. a rough and sturdy peasant) is sitting in a pub, drinking beer, and watching the world go by, while a succession of different rulers, invaders, conquerors, and ruling classes come and go, all ignoring the wishes and desires of the common ordinary folk. The anger and resentment gradually grows to the point at which the peasant assumes that the people are on the verge of a great uprising and revolt against the patronising effete elite. q.v. recent upsurges of hard right radical populist political movements in various European countries. |
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Post by johnloony on Jun 23, 2024 20:13:53 GMT
How well is Feinstein doing? Here's Survation's constituency poll to tell us. It’s worth bearing in mind the notional result from 2019: Lab 66% Con 15% LD 12% Green 4% |
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batman
Labour
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Post by batman on Jun 23, 2024 21:19:44 GMT
Well reading that thread is a quarter of an hour I won't get back again. Labour will not mind in the least if they get results like this. It can only mean bigger swings in the seats they are targetting.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 24, 2024 3:09:15 GMT
How well is Feinstein doing? Here's Survation's constituency poll to tell us. A lot to unpack here. This now seems to be the most leftwing seat in the UK! That's about a 12% drop for Starmer which is what I think happens even in the worst case scenario for Feinstein. The Greens eclipse their 2015 showing by a couple of points, presumably because a lot of the student vote goes their way instead of Feinstein - many still won't know who Feinstein is and he doesn't have long to build up name recognition in the student-heavy wards like Bloomsbury, Holborn & Covent Garden and King's Cross. I think if you swap Feinstein and the Greens, this poll looks more realistic. Still, many Greens leant Starmer their vote in 2017 and 2019 (but this seat excises the one area in the old Holborn & St Pancras that elected Green Councillors in 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018 and 2022. Kentish Town North is their strongest area on this map. The Tories will be unlikely to drop that much because you still have around 20-25% here with mortgages or who own their homes outright and many of those will have children at private schools and will probably stick with the Tories because of fears about VAT on independent school fees. However, many will switch to LD. Reform's vote is credible since UKIP held their deposit in this seat in 2015 (on worse boundaries for the party FWIW). TL;DR: Andrew Feinstein is not Jeremy Corbyn or even Leanne Mohamad, and I wonder if his being a white South African chap limits his appeal to Muslim voters a bit. Although George Galloway has no trouble winning them in the likes or Bethnal Green, Bradford and Rochdale. Still, I think this poll is a good sign Feinstein will keep his deposit lol. Speaking of Andrew Feinstein and Leanne Mohamad |
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Jun 24, 2024 6:40:42 GMT
I'm not sure why you think Feinstein will do so well.
Most people will have heard of the Greens etc, more than they have ever heard of Feinstein, and therefore more likely to vote for them than him.
I think you are wishful thinking, this is because you admire Feinstein, unfortunately admiration never translates to votes at elections, especially in the case of independent candidates.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 24, 2024 6:51:35 GMT
I'm not sure why you think Feinstein will do so well. Most people will have heard of the Greens etc, more than they have ever heard of Feinstein, and therefore more likely to vote for them than him. I think you are wishful thinking, this is because you admire Feinstein, unfortunately admiration never translates to votes at elections, especially in the case of independent candidates. Yes. I do admire him. He reminds me of Peter Hain, who was a wonderful Labour MP in his day. I've put a flutter on Feinstein at 20/1 and will leaflet for him because I've got the time, but I won't post on this thread until election night because I recognise most here don't share my perspectives on my former constituency. |
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Post by norflondon on Jun 24, 2024 7:34:54 GMT
20/1 is awful value. It suggests he has a 5% chance of winning. His chance is about 0.1% imo , or 1000/1.
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Merseymike
Independent
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Post by Merseymike on Jun 24, 2024 7:37:00 GMT
I'm not sure why you think Feinstein will do so well. Most people will have heard of the Greens etc, more than they have ever heard of Feinstein, and therefore more likely to vote for them than him. I think you are wishful thinking, this is because you admire Feinstein, unfortunately admiration never translates to votes at elections, especially in the case of independent candidates. Yes. I do admire him. He reminds me of Peter Hain, who was a wonderful Labour MP in his day. I've put a flutter on Feinstein at 20/1 and will leaflet for him because I've got the time, but I won't post on this thread until election night because I recognise most here don't share my perspectives on my former constituency. I certainly do admire him. But, I just don't think that he will win. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jun 24, 2024 15:17:48 GMT
How well is Feinstein doing? Here's Survation's constituency poll to tell us. Six per cent is both the likely percentage and the gradient of the ramp. |
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Post by norflondon on Jun 27, 2024 12:33:51 GMT
Odds on Feinstein win decreases as incumbent MP causes outrage and upset to big local Bangladeshi community while attending event organised by The Sun newspaper
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wallington
Green
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Post by wallington on Jun 27, 2024 14:11:23 GMT
I would still be surprised if Feinstein managed to hold his deposit. Can people please stop the ramping!
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 27, 2024 14:14:50 GMT
I would still be surprised if Feinstein managed to hold his deposit. Can people please stop the ramping! To be fair, there's only one person ramping Feinstein here. |
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
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Post by john07 on Jun 27, 2024 14:16:20 GMT
I would still be surprised if Feinstein managed to hold his deposit. Can people please stop the ramping! It's not people, it's one deranged individual. |
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batman
Labour
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Post by batman on Jun 27, 2024 15:14:24 GMT
I would still be surprised if Feinstein managed to hold his deposit. Can people please stop the ramping! To be fair, there's only one person ramping Feinstein here. well two actually |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 27, 2024 15:18:48 GMT
To be fair, there's only one person ramping Feinstein here. well two actually Maybe.. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 1, 2024 0:52:13 GMT
I said I'd refrain from commenting on this thread until after the election, but I went canvassing for Feinstein yesterday (in the Regents Park Estate just off Hampstead Road). Here's what we found: two Labour voters; two voters who'd already returned postal votes for Mr Feinstein; two Green voters (one of whom I persuaded to vote Feinstein as the best 'green' pick to beat Sir Keir); one Green who we couldn't sway; 0 Lib Dem voters; only one hostile voter who told us to fuck off.
We found solid Feinstein support among British Bangladeshi and British Somali households, unsurprisingly given the sting of the Gaza conflict and Sir Keir's comments on it on LBC. We met a single ethnic minority voter who said they would vote Labour (or had already done so).
We found little enthusiasm for Labour despite the party's unchallenged domination of this seat for decades and Camden Council since 2010 (perhaps their hegemony in this constituency accounts for the antipathy).
It wasn't just Gaza that people were irritated by, but Starmer's comments about Lady Thatcher and people making money - many thought this a bit too Tory-lite for their penchant in such a progressive seat.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jul 1, 2024 10:56:57 GMT
I said I'd refrain from commenting on this thread until after the election, but I went canvassing for Feinstein yesterday (in the Regents Park Estate just off Hampstead Road). Here's what we found: two Labour voters; two voters who'd already returned postal votes for Mr Feinstein; two Green voters (one of whom I persuaded to vote Feinstein as the best 'green' pick to beat Sir Keir); one Green who we couldn't sway; 0 Lib Dem voters; only one hostile voter who told us to fuck off. We found solid Feinstein support among British Bangladeshi and British Somali households, unsurprisingly given the sting of the Gaza conflict and Sir Keir's comments on it on LBC. We met a single ethnic minority voter who said they would vote Labour (or had already done so). We found little enthusiasm for Labour despite the party's unchallenged domination of this seat for decades and Camden Council since 2010 (perhaps their hegemony in this constituency accounts for the antipathy). It wasn't just Gaza that people were irritated by, but Starmer's comments about Lady Thatcher and people making money - many thought this a bit too Tory-lite for their penchant in such a progressive seat. Out of sheer curiosity were you canvassing every house or targeting? You’ve also said you’re planning on being out and canvassing on polling day. Hopefully you’re getting your terminology wrong, most people will tell you canvassing on polling day is somewhat pointless. FFIW Feinstein will get 6-7%. And I know nothing about him bar what’s in this thread and after a quick scan of his Wikipedia page. |
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batman
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Post by batman on Jul 1, 2024 11:43:44 GMT
I have canvassed once on polling day, in the Kensington & Chelsea by-election of 1999. And we didn't do all that well in that one. It's usually indicative that you haven't had a very thorough campaign before that time.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 1, 2024 14:14:56 GMT
I said I'd refrain from commenting on this thread until after the election, but I went canvassing for Feinstein yesterday (in the Regents Park Estate just off Hampstead Road). Here's what we found: two Labour voters; two voters who'd already returned postal votes for Mr Feinstein; two Green voters (one of whom I persuaded to vote Feinstein as the best 'green' pick to beat Sir Keir); one Green who we couldn't sway; 0 Lib Dem voters; only one hostile voter who told us to fuck off. We found solid Feinstein support among British Bangladeshi and British Somali households, unsurprisingly given the sting of the Gaza conflict and Sir Keir's comments on it on LBC. We met a single ethnic minority voter who said they would vote Labour (or had already done so). We found little enthusiasm for Labour despite the party's unchallenged domination of this seat for decades and Camden Council since 2010 (perhaps their hegemony in this constituency accounts for the antipathy). It wasn't just Gaza that people were irritated by, but Starmer's comments about Lady Thatcher and people making money - many thought this a bit too Tory-lite for their penchant in such a progressive seat. Out of sheer curiosity were you canvassing every house or targeting? You’ve also said you’re planning on being out and canvassing on polling day. Hopefully you’re getting your terminology wrong, most people will tell you canvassing on polling day is somewhat pointless. FFIW Feinstein will get 6-7%. And I know nothing about him bar what’s in this thread and after a quick scan of his Wikipedia page. I haven't canvassed until now since the Witney and Richmond Park by-elections - mean GOTV. Haha, you know so little about him except his vote share!  |
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