edgbaston
Labour
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Post by edgbaston on Jul 5, 2024 2:08:25 GMT
I got carried away, but we shaved 17% off Starmer's vote. Labour are where they were in 1983 here. you don’t say |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 5, 2024 2:12:11 GMT
I got carried away, but we shaved 17% off Starmer's vote. Labour are where they were in 1983 here. you don’t say I made a mistake of forgetting most students weren't here. If they were, it might have been a lot closer. |
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Post by norflondon on Jul 5, 2024 2:56:25 GMT
A shockingly poor return for the LOTO. I believe the first time that a winning leader of the opposition whose party is ahead in the polls to have a reduced majority in his seat.
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Jul 5, 2024 3:45:51 GMT
I got carried away, but we shaved 17% off Starmer's vote. Labour are where they were in 1983 here. True, but he was doing a lot better than I expected, so I wasn't right either.  |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 5, 2024 3:46:29 GMT
Apropos of nothing but Wes Streting and Keir Starmer both dropped 17% in their seats.
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Post by norflondon on Jul 5, 2024 8:28:15 GMT
In several ways overall it's a disappointing result for the party now in government.
Only 2% vote up from last time, lost several seats, total vote share a pathetic 34%, leader loses 18,000 votes in his seat, overall turnout a near historic low. Labour's 9,700,000 votes is clearly fewer than the 10,300,000 votes the party received under Jeremy Corbyn in the 2019 election.
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Crimson King
Lib Dem
Be nice to each other and sing in tune
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Post by Crimson King on Jul 5, 2024 8:36:08 GMT
I’m sure he will try hard and control his dissapointment
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cathyc
Non-Aligned
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Post by cathyc on Jul 5, 2024 14:50:40 GMT
Weld, bless you. You're hearing what you'd like to hear. It's enthusiastic of you. It's encouraging. It's sweet, in a way. I assure you, with every good intention, your prediction is utter fantasy. Please stay grounded. No. We believe we are track for 20k votes here, due to bloc votes from Bangladeshis, Somalis and young people in the constituency. Starmer is going down. 100%. The gammon is going to be cooked. You may not like it, but this is the new reality of politics in this seat - this is markedly more progressive on the new boundaries. Why? Well, the Boundary Commission excised Highgate which was the most elitist and wealthiest part of the old seat, by a shade, and the most Jewish ward FWIW. It really ain't that different to when Alexadnria Ocasio-Cortez defeated Joe Crowley or when Jamaal Bowman beat Eliot Engel (both in NYC), or when Elizabeth Holtzmann beat Emanuel Cellar in 1972. As for the polls, I wipe my arse with them - in 2014, Eric Cantor led Dave Brat in Virginias 7th by 30% - Brat still won on the day. Of course people will have different assessments of certain seats, but I did live here for a year and am on the ground everyday talking to Starmer's electorate. Any news on this? |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 5, 2024 14:54:20 GMT
No. We believe we are track for 20k votes here, due to bloc votes from Bangladeshis, Somalis and young people in the constituency. Starmer is going down. 100%. The gammon is going to be cooked. You may not like it, but this is the new reality of politics in this seat - this is markedly more progressive on the new boundaries. Why? Well, the Boundary Commission excised Highgate which was the most elitist and wealthiest part of the old seat, by a shade, and the most Jewish ward FWIW. It really ain't that different to when Alexadnria Ocasio-Cortez defeated Joe Crowley or when Jamaal Bowman beat Eliot Engel (both in NYC), or when Elizabeth Holtzmann beat Emanuel Cellar in 1972. As for the polls, I wipe my arse with them - in 2014, Eric Cantor led Dave Brat in Virginias 7th by 30% - Brat still won on the day. Of course people will have different assessments of certain seats, but I did live here for a year and am on the ground everyday talking to Starmer's electorate. Any news on this? I massively overestimated the number of students who were still here, and the amount of students we would mobilise compared to the Greens. Had the election took place a month ago, I think Andrew would have got closer to 20k than the 7k he actually got, but we struggled to squeeze the Greens because of their history of elected representation in the old seat and strong performance when Natalie Bennett stood for them in 2015. I got a bit carried away by the census results for South Asian and students and underestimated the challenge of getting both these groups to turn out en masse for Feinstein. We got Muslims, we didn't get students. Based on canvassing data, I think Feinstein would have polled more votes than Starmer in St Pancras & Somers Town (heavily Bengali and Somali communities behind Euston Station) and came reasonably close in Haverstock and a to a lesser, extent Holborn & Covent Garden. We didn't do enough to squeeze the Green votes rom the 2022 council elections in Kentish Town. Similarly, we didn't get enough of the young people voting for Feinstein in Bloomsbury and Kings Cross wards. Feinstein would've needed to carry the old Holborn borough to get close. Kudos to Labour for their win here. This seat and Hampstead's Labour vote share converged. |
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cathyc
Non-Aligned
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Post by cathyc on Jul 5, 2024 15:02:31 GMT
I massively overestimated the number of students who were still here, and the amount of students we would mobilise compared to the Greens. Had the election took place a month ago, I think Andrew would have got closer to 20k than the 7k he actually got, but we struggled to squeeze the Greens because of their history of elected representation in the old seat and strong performance when Natalie Bennett stood for them in 2015. I got a bit carried away by the census results for South Asian and students and underestimated the challenge of getting both these groups to turn out en masse for Feinstein. We got Muslims, we didn't get students. Based on canvassing data, I think Feinstein would have polled more votes than Starmer in St Pancras & Somers Town (heavily Bengali and Somali communities behind Euston Station) and came reasonably close in Haverstock and a to a lesser, extent Holborn & Covent Garden. We didn't do enough to squeeze the Green votes rom the 2022 council elections in Kentish Town. Similarly, we didn't get enough of the young people voting for Feinstein in Bloomsbury and Kings Cross wards. Feinstein would've needed to carry the old Holborn borough to get close. Kudos to Labour for their win here. This seat and Hampstead's Labour vote share converged. Surely when you canvassed them all and including them in the estimated 20,000 vote pledges some of them might have mentioned that they wouldn't still be there. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 5, 2024 15:04:18 GMT
I massively overestimated the number of students who were still here, and the amount of students we would mobilise compared to the Greens. Had the election took place a month ago, I think Andrew would have got closer to 20k than the 7k he actually got, but we struggled to squeeze the Greens because of their history of elected representation in the old seat and strong performance when Natalie Bennett stood for them in 2015. I got a bit carried away by the census results for South Asian and students and underestimated the challenge of getting both these groups to turn out en masse for Feinstein. We got Muslims, we didn't get students. Based on canvassing data, I think Feinstein would have polled more votes than Starmer in St Pancras & Somers Town (heavily Bengali and Somali communities behind Euston Station) and came reasonably close in Haverstock and a to a lesser, extent Holborn & Covent Garden. We didn't do enough to squeeze the Green votes rom the 2022 council elections in Kentish Town. Similarly, we didn't get enough of the young people voting for Feinstein in Bloomsbury and Kings Cross wards. Feinstein would've needed to carry the old Holborn borough to get close. Kudos to Labour for their win here. This seat and Hampstead's Labour vote share converged. Surely when you canvassed them all and including them in the estimated 20,000 vote pledges some of them might have mentioned that they wouldn't still be there. I didn't canvass 'them all'. I wish this vote took place a month ago. This could've been much more interesting if we got bloc votes from UCL and SOAS students. |
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,774
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Post by john07 on Jul 5, 2024 15:34:25 GMT
I massively overestimated the number of students who were still here, and the amount of students we would mobilise compared to the Greens. Had the election took place a month ago, I think Andrew would have got closer to 20k than the 7k he actually got, but we struggled to squeeze the Greens because of their history of elected representation in the old seat and strong performance when Natalie Bennett stood for them in 2015. I got a bit carried away by the census results for South Asian and students and underestimated the challenge of getting both these groups to turn out en masse for Feinstein. We got Muslims, we didn't get students. Based on canvassing data, I think Feinstein would have polled more votes than Starmer in St Pancras & Somers Town (heavily Bengali and Somali communities behind Euston Station) and came reasonably close in Haverstock and a to a lesser, extent Holborn & Covent Garden. We didn't do enough to squeeze the Green votes rom the 2022 council elections in Kentish Town. Similarly, we didn't get enough of the young people voting for Feinstein in Bloomsbury and Kings Cross wards. Feinstein would've needed to carry the old Holborn borough to get close. Kudos to Labour for their win here. This seat and Hampstead's Labour vote share converged. You are (deliberately) missing the point that students voting patterns are not that different from others in their age profile. You also took no account of the fact that not all students will reside in the same constituency as the college is sited. The newer ex-Polytechnics will have most students not living in halls of residence but either at home or in flats which are remote from the College concerned. That’s before we get on to the very large number of students from China and elsewhere who will not be eligible to vote. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 5, 2024 15:41:41 GMT
I massively overestimated the number of students who were still here, and the amount of students we would mobilise compared to the Greens. Had the election took place a month ago, I think Andrew would have got closer to 20k than the 7k he actually got, but we struggled to squeeze the Greens because of their history of elected representation in the old seat and strong performance when Natalie Bennett stood for them in 2015. I got a bit carried away by the census results for South Asian and students and underestimated the challenge of getting both these groups to turn out en masse for Feinstein. We got Muslims, we didn't get students. Based on canvassing data, I think Feinstein would have polled more votes than Starmer in St Pancras & Somers Town (heavily Bengali and Somali communities behind Euston Station) and came reasonably close in Haverstock and a to a lesser, extent Holborn & Covent Garden. We didn't do enough to squeeze the Green votes rom the 2022 council elections in Kentish Town. Similarly, we didn't get enough of the young people voting for Feinstein in Bloomsbury and Kings Cross wards. Feinstein would've needed to carry the old Holborn borough to get close. Kudos to Labour for their win here. This seat and Hampstead's Labour vote share converged. You are (deliberately) missing the point that students voting patterns are not that different from others in their age profile. You also took no account of the fact that not all students will reside in the same constituency as the college is sited. The newer ex-Polytechnics will have most students not living in halls of residence but either at home or in flats which are remote from the College concerned. That’s before we get on to the very large number of students from China and elsewhere who will not be eligible to vote. Perhaps, although from what we observed, the issues for students were not that different from Feinstein's top priorities. I think that's fair to any extent about not living in the same place as the university college - but in this seat, you have several accommodation blocks where the university guarantees first year accommodation - for example LSE has a hall of residence on High Holborn, and UCL has several around Gower Street and Ramsey Hall. It's fairly common for those unis to offer guaranteed first year accommodation to students. Indeed, one of the reasons I turned down LSE for Oxford was the lack of guaranteed accommodation for all three years. You will get second and third years renting privately here - my friend at UCL lived in Borrowdale on the Regent's Park Estate. You're right about the international piece, and I think LSE is around 33% home students (but I might be confusing that figure for the private school percentage). All fair points from you john07 . |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 26, 2024 20:00:59 GMT
There's a fairly bad-tempered discussion about the election continuing in the letters page of the Camden New Journal. The Chair and Secretary of Holborn and St Pancras Constituency Labour Party had a letter in last week, attacking Andrew Feinstein for "setting his sights on toppling Starmer and trampling on the hopes of the many who so fiercely wanted and needed change". They pointed out that for all Feinstein's talks of holding politicians to account, he was sponsored by an outside organisation dedicated to opposing Starmer personally - and also one organised as a limited company just like Reform UK. They went on to accuse his supporters of intimidating voters outside polling stations and having a campaign team who were mostly non-local. Feinstein has come back this week, claiming this was an attempt to smear all the people who voted for him and saying his campaign HQ didn't get a single complaint. There are a whole load of other letters (most people who write to the Camden New Journal are left-wing opponents of Labour), enough that the Editorial staff have added a box saying "HOLBORN & ST PANCRAS LP OFFICER'S LETTER PROMPTED A LARGE NUMBER OF REPLIES - MORE THAN OUR PAGES COULD ACCOMMODATE. MANY OF THOSE PUBLISHED HAD TO BE CUT BACK FOR SPACE REASONS". |
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Post by sanders on Jul 26, 2024 20:09:39 GMT
There's a fairly bad-tempered discussion about the election continuing in the letters page of the Camden New Journal. The Chair and Secretary of Holborn and St Pancras Constituency Labour Party had a letter in last week, attacking Andrew Feinstein for "setting his sights on toppling Starmer and trampling on the hopes of the many who so fiercely wanted and needed change". They pointed out that for all Feinstein's talks of holding politicians to account, he was sponsored by an outside organisation dedicated to opposing Starmer personally - and also one organised as a limited company just like Reform UK. They went on to accuse his supporters of intimidating voters outside polling stations and having a campaign team who were mostly non-local. Feinstein has come back this week, claiming this was an attempt to smear all the people who voted for him and saying his campaign HQ didn't get a single complaint. There are a whole load of other letters (most people who write to the Camden New Journal are left-wing opponents of Labour), enough that the Editorial staff have added a box saying "HOLBORN & ST PANCRAS LP OFFICER'S LETTER PROMPTED A LARGE NUMBER OF REPLIES - MORE THAN OUR PAGES COULD ACCOMMODATE. MANY OF THOSE PUBLISHED HAD TO BE CUT BACK FOR SPACE REASONS". It's ok, surely, to campaign against Starmer on the basis that you oppose Starmer personally rather than Labour in general. "I like football, I don't like FIFA". |
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Jul 26, 2024 20:13:16 GMT
There's a fairly bad-tempered discussion about the election continuing in the letters page of the Camden New Journal. The Chair and Secretary of Holborn and St Pancras Constituency Labour Party had a letter in last week, attacking Andrew Feinstein for "setting his sights on toppling Starmer and trampling on the hopes of the many who so fiercely wanted and needed change". They pointed out that for all Feinstein's talks of holding politicians to account, he was sponsored by an outside organisation dedicated to opposing Starmer personally - and also one organised as a limited company just like Reform UK. They went on to accuse his supporters of intimidating voters outside polling stations and having a campaign team who were mostly non-local. Feinstein has come back this week, claiming this was an attempt to smear all the people who voted for him and saying his campaign HQ didn't get a single complaint. There are a whole load of other letters (most people who write to the Camden New Journal are left-wing opponents of Labour), enough that the Editorial staff have added a box saying "HOLBORN & ST PANCRAS LP OFFICER'S LETTER PROMPTED A LARGE NUMBER OF REPLIES - MORE THAN OUR PAGES COULD ACCOMMODATE. MANY OF THOSE PUBLISHED HAD TO BE CUT BACK FOR SPACE REASONS". It's ok, surely, to campaign against Starmer on the basis that you oppose Starmer personally rather than Labour in general. "I like football, I don't like FIFA". Opposing someone because you don't like them personally is petty. Oopposing someone because you don't like their political decisions and the way they make them is something different. |
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Post by sanders on Jul 26, 2024 20:16:03 GMT
It's ok, surely, to campaign against Starmer on the basis that you oppose Starmer personally rather than Labour in general. "I like football, I don't like FIFA". Opposing someone because you don't like them personally is petty. Oopposing someone because you don't like their political decisions and the way they make them is something different. To be clear, it was the ambiguity around how far KS would stand by his 2020 commitments and then the infamous LBC interview, plus my own lived experience of Camden's housing crisis, that pushed me over the edge. To be clear, I voted for the Lib Dem against Starmer in 2019 when I lived in the area. |
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