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Post by akmd on Jun 23, 2024 8:06:10 GMT
There is a type - obviously - in Camden, and some neighbourng boroughs which fit the streotype you describe, but it is a sterotype, which like all such contain an element of truth but miss the complexities of people's identity. I doubt that very many people regard themselves as consumers of cannabis as their primary identity. The fact that many people in Camden, Islington and Hackney fit the steorotype you describe has far more to do with the fact they live in Camden, Islington or Hackney than with whatever shit they put into their lungs For sure, as my mate in Portslade shows. These areas are quite distinctive even for London, along with bits of Haringey and Southwark - they voted for AV lol. It's self-sorting, people move to these places because they're looking for a certain version of a good time, whereas a family with kids might move out closer to where you are. Don’t forget Lambeth. I’d say it’s part of the group too and the borough also voted for AV. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 23, 2024 8:11:52 GMT
For sure, as my mate in Portslade shows. These areas are quite distinctive even for London, along with bits of Haringey and Southwark - they voted for AV lol. It's self-sorting, people move to these places because they're looking for a certain version of a good time, whereas a family with kids might move out closer to where you are. Don’t forget Lambeth. I’d say it’s part of the group too and the borough also voted for AV. Absolutely. Lots of Green voters there at the local level too, more so than any of the boroughs I've listed. Well until Hackney elects 10 Greens in 2026 or something. |
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Post by batman on Jun 23, 2024 8:42:52 GMT
Even if the admin grants your request for a poll, it would be a pointless exercise. The entire forum, even those who have some time for Feinstein which I don't, will go for Labour hold except possibly you weld. Maybe you would vote for Lab hold too. FWIW the odds for a win for Keir Starmer here are 100 to 1 on.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 23, 2024 8:44:06 GMT
Even if the admin grants your request for a poll, it would be a pointless exercise. The entire forum, even those who have some time for Feinstein which I don't, will go for Labour hold except possibly you weld. Maybe you would vote for Lab hold too. FWIW the odds for a win for Keir Starmer here are 100 to 1 on. We also need a poll for Richmond & Northallerton now that I think about it, since a Labour win can't be ruled out entirely. I get your point, but this isn't about my view on the seat, it's about the effort Feinstein is putting in and the apparent ad spending going on here for Labour. I would vote 'toss up' but we don't have that  . I reckon that Merseymike would join me in voting for Independent gain actually, and you do have some posters who always tick an option because they have said option. TL;DR: let's just have a poll and settle this. |
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Merseymike
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Post by Merseymike on Jun 23, 2024 9:01:45 GMT
Even if the admin grants your request for a poll, it would be a pointless exercise. The entire forum, even those who have some time for Feinstein which I don't, will go for Labour hold except possibly you weld. Maybe you would vote for Lab hold too. FWIW the odds for a win for Keir Starmer here are 100 to 1 on. We also need a poll for Richmond & Northallerton now that I think about it, since a Labour win can't be ruled out entirely. I get your point, but this isn't about my view on the seat, it's about the effort Feinstein is putting in and the apparent ad spending going on here for Labour. I would vote 'toss up' but we don't have that . I reckon that Merseymike would join me in voting for Independent gain actually, and you do have some posters who always tick an option because they have said option. TL;DR: let's just have a poll and settle this. Eh? Feinstein won't win. |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 23, 2024 9:03:06 GMT
We also need a poll for Richmond & Northallerton now that I think about it, since a Labour win can't be ruled out entirely. I get your point, but this isn't about my view on the seat, it's about the effort Feinstein is putting in and the apparent ad spending going on here for Labour. I would vote 'toss up' but we don't have that . I reckon that Merseymike would join me in voting for Independent gain actually, and you do have some posters who always tick an option because they have said option. TL;DR: let's just have a poll and settle this. Eh? Feinstein won't win. Fair enough. I thought you might be a Feinstein fan and see him as a credible candidate. |
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Post by finsobruce on Jun 23, 2024 9:03:56 GMT
Even if the admin grants your request for a poll, it would be a pointless exercise. The entire forum, even those who have some time for Feinstein which I don't, will go for Labour hold except possibly you weld. Maybe you would vote for Lab hold too. FWIW the odds for a win for Keir Starmer here are 100 to 1 on. We also need a poll for Richmond & Northallerton now that I think about it, since a Labour win can't be ruled out entirely. I get your point, but this isn't about my view on the seat, it's about the effort Feinstein is putting in and the apparent ad spending going on here for Labour. I would vote 'toss up' but we don't have that . I reckon that Merseymike would join me in voting for Independent gain actually, and you do have some posters who always tick an option because they have said option. TL;DR: let's just have a poll and settle this. 1. I query your use of the word 'need'.
2. It wouldn't settle anything. Only the result at the General Election will do this.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 23, 2024 9:05:14 GMT
We also need a poll for Richmond & Northallerton now that I think about it, since a Labour win can't be ruled out entirely. I get your point, but this isn't about my view on the seat, it's about the effort Feinstein is putting in and the apparent ad spending going on here for Labour. I would vote 'toss up' but we don't have that . I reckon that Merseymike would join me in voting for Independent gain actually, and you do have some posters who always tick an option because they have said option. TL;DR: let's just have a poll and settle this. 1. I query your use of the word 'need'.
2. It wouldn't settle anything. Only the result at the General Election will do this.
1. Need as in entertainment value 2. It would settle whether the omniscient members of Vote UK can get this one right. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 23, 2024 9:08:13 GMT
1. I query your use of the word 'need'. 2. It wouldn't settle anything. Only the result at the General Election will do this.
1. Need as in entertainment value 2. It would settle whether the omniscient members of Vote UK can get this one right. When you make Merseymike the sensible voice in the room I think you should take the hint |
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Post by finsobruce on Jun 23, 2024 9:10:54 GMT
1. I query your use of the word 'need'.
2. It wouldn't settle anything. Only the result at the General Election will do this.
1. Need as in entertainment value 2. It would settle whether the omniscient members of Vote UK can get this one right. 1. That's not a need, that's a want.
2. We aren't omniscient. See also turnout figures, weighting etc.  |
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YL
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Post by YL on Jun 23, 2024 9:46:30 GMT
I also strongly doubt that Starmer gets less than 50% - don't forget he will very likely get a "leader boost" compared to last time (even Sunak probably does, one reason why I think he will hold his seat) and this could help to at least counteract losses elsewhere. I don't for one minute think that Starmer is in any danger here, but I think the evidence for leaders' boosts in the last three elections is pretty weak to say the least. For Labour, Ed Miliband's result in 2015 looks good by the standards of that election at first sight, but in fact if you compare with neighbouring seats it looks rather less so, and something very similar is true of Corbyn in 2017. Boris Johnson's performances in Uxbridge & South Ruislip were not particularly impressive, and Theresa May's vote share in Maidenhead actually went down in 2017. And Tim Farron nearly lost his seat in 2017 and Jo Swinson of course actually did in 2019. |
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r34t
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Post by r34t on Jun 23, 2024 10:07:10 GMT
Fair enough. I thought you might be a Feinstein fan and see him as a credible candidate. Liking a candidate, seeing someone as a credible candidate & whether they are a potential winning candidate are 3 totally separate matters. I'd suggest you probably need to stop embarrassing yourself. |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 23, 2024 10:08:14 GMT
Fair enough. I thought you might be a Feinstein fan and see him as a credible candidate. Liking a candidate, seeing someone as a credible candidate & whether they are a potential winning candidate are 3 totally separate matters. I'd suggest you probably need to stop embarrassing yourself. To (mis)quote G.K. Chesterton, "Smile at us, pay us, pass us, but never forget, we are the people of Holborn & St Pancras, and we have not spoken yet" |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 23, 2024 10:34:39 GMT
I also strongly doubt that Starmer gets less than 50% - don't forget he will very likely get a "leader boost" compared to last time (even Sunak probably does, one reason why I think he will hold his seat) and this could help to at least counteract losses elsewhere. I don't for one minute think that Starmer is in any danger here, but I think the evidence for leaders' boosts in the last three elections is pretty weak to say the least. For Labour, Ed Miliband's result in 2015 looks good by the standards of that election at first sight, but in fact if you compare with neighbouring seats it looks rather less so, and something very similar is true of Corbyn in 2017. Boris Johnson's performances in Uxbridge & South Ruislip were not particularly impressive, and Theresa May's vote share in Maidenhead actually went down in 2017. And Tim Farron nearly lost his seat in 2017 and Jo Swinson of course actually did in 2019. The weird thing about Ed M is that he got a much better result in 2017. |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 23, 2024 10:35:02 GMT
I don't for one minute think that Starmer is in any danger here, but I think the evidence for leaders' boosts in the last three elections is pretty weak to say the least. For Labour, Ed Miliband's result in 2015 looks good by the standards of that election at first sight, but in fact if you compare with neighbouring seats it looks rather less so, and something very similar is true of Corbyn in 2017. Boris Johnson's performances in Uxbridge & South Ruislip were not particularly impressive, and Theresa May's vote share in Maidenhead actually went down in 2017. And Tim Farron nearly lost his seat in 2017 and Jo Swinson of course actually did in 2019. The weird thing about Ed M is that he got a much better result in 2017. Corbyn effect. UKIP voters returning to Labour. Starmer got Labour's best ever result here (70%+) when Corbyn was leader - you wouldn't think it, would you? |
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Sg1
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Post by Sg1 on Jun 23, 2024 12:22:38 GMT
The weird thing about Ed M is that he got a much better result in 2017. Corbyn effect. UKIP voters returning to Labour. Starmer got Labour's best ever result here (70%+) when Corbyn was leader - you wouldn't think it, would you? You would think it. Corbyn particularly appealed to inner city seats such as Holborn, which Labour may be static in or even fall back slightly in under Starmer this time around. |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 23, 2024 12:27:06 GMT
Corbyn effect. UKIP voters returning to Labour. Starmer got Labour's best ever result here (70%+) when Corbyn was leader - you wouldn't think it, would you? You would think it. Corbyn particularly appealed to inner city seats such as Holborn, which Labour may be static in or even fall back slightly in under Starmer this time around. You wouldn't think it based on how Starmer and co have run a mile from Corbyn. I guess it will pay dividends outside Zone 2 and beyond the M25 more broadly. |
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Sg1
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Post by Sg1 on Jun 23, 2024 12:29:09 GMT
You would think it. Corbyn particularly appealed to inner city seats such as Holborn, which Labour may be static in or even fall back slightly in under Starmer this time around. You wouldn't think it based on how Starmer and co have run a mile from Corbyn. I guess it will pay dividends outside Zone 2 and beyond the M25 more broadly. No, they ran a mile from Corbyn because it helps them in almost every other seat in the country, including those they need for an overall majority. I think Starmer would be satisfied with a slightly reduced but still massive majority in his own seat if it meant that for him. |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 23, 2024 12:30:54 GMT
You wouldn't think it based on how Starmer and co have run a mile from Corbyn. I guess it will pay dividends outside Zone 2 and beyond the M25 more broadly. No, they ran a mile from Corbyn because it helps them in almost every other seat in the country, including those they need for an overall majority. I think Starmer would be satisfied with a slightly reduced but still massive majority in his own seat if it meant that for him. Of course he would. That's politics for you. |
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Post by finsobruce on Jun 23, 2024 12:39:14 GMT
You wouldn't think it based on how Starmer and co have run a mile from Corbyn. I guess it will pay dividends outside Zone 2 and beyond the M25 more broadly. No, they ran a mile from Corbyn because it helps them in almost every other seat in the country, including those they need for an overall majority. I think Starmer would be satisfied with a slightly reduced but still massive majority in his own seat if it meant that for him. Given that he got 70% in a Metropolitan seat, there isn't much further you can go with that really. |
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. I reckon that 
