Holborn and St Pancras

[aargauer]

So, on lighter hearted matters, if I wanted to cause maximum chaos from my death bed I could form a joke party and run against the labour leader in their own constituency and then die, preventing them from being re-elected?

I think this is the way I want to go out.

[doktorb🏳️‍🌈🏳️‍⚧️]

Jun 18, 2024 22:09:19 GMT aargauer said:

So, on lighter hearted matters, if I wanted to cause maximum chaos from my death bed I could form a joke party and run against the labour leader in their own constituency and then die, preventing them from being re-elected?

I think this is the way I want to go out.

The 'death of a candidate' rules would kick in. If you were a registered party, rather than an independent, then yes, they would countermand the election until another candidate (from your party, and only your party) was put forward.

[Deleted]

Worst case scenario for Feinstein IMO:

LABOUR 49%
LD 15%
FEINSTEIN 14%
CON 12%
GRN 7%
OTH 3%

Tl;dr: Feinstein takes about 25% of Starmer's 2019 vote. He essentially replicates the Green Party leaders' 2015 performance here. The Greens keep their deposit and deprive Feinstein of second place. Lib Dems bounce back somewhat, but most of the anti-Starmer vote splits between four parties. In a way, Starmer's performance would replicate Labour's showing in the Hackney Mayoral election of 2023 if you want an Inner London comparison (of sorts). I'd still be surprised if Feinstein isn't second, but another independent, Wais Islam, may eat into his vote in St Pancras & Somers Town. Either way, the race for second is probably the most curious component. Feinstein is active on socials, but, aside from some posters around the Camden - Islington border and in Camden Town, I've not seen much more activity.



To batman 's point, seats with a red wash where all Councillors are Labour: Holborn & St Pancras (no Highgate); Islington South & Finsbury (Labour held De Beauvoir by 27 votes in July 2022); Tottenham; Camberwell & Peckham; Ilford South; Barking; Vauxhall; the Lewisham seats. I'm sure there are others.

[batman]

De Beauvoir ward is in Hackney not in the Islington South and Finsbury constituency.

[batman]

And I really don’t think that’s a worst case scenario for Feinstein.

[Deleted]

Jun 21, 2024 3:56:47 GMT batman said:

De Beauvoir ward is in Hackney not in the Islington South and Finsbury constituency.

No longer! It's moved seats under boundary changes, and boundary changes are why this seat is a red wash. Also, Dalston is in Hackney South & Shoreditch now. 

[Deleted]

Jun 21, 2024 3:58:20 GMT batman said:

And I really don’t think that’s a worst case scenario for Feinstein.

I honestly think so. He just replicates Natalie Bennett's 2015 showing but with a different coalition, with more brown voters, thus holding Starmer below 50%.

[The Bishop]

I also strongly doubt that Starmer gets less than 50% - don't forget he will very likely get a "leader boost" compared to last time (even Sunak probably does, one reason why I think he will hold his seat) and this could help to at least counteract losses elsewhere.

[Deleted]

Jun 21, 2024 12:34:57 GMT The Bishop said:

I also strongly doubt that Starmer gets less than 50% - don't forget he will get a "leader boost" compared to last time (even Sunak might, one reason why I think he will hold his seat) and this could help to at least counteract losses elsewhere.

He might get a "leader boost". Given that Starmer got 64% last time (probably more on these boundaries), I don't think there's much room for a boost. Labour got 65% in 1997 and 70% in 2017, so I guess in the unlikely event of an increase in his vote share, it'd be to a figure between one of those two. 

[The Bishop]

Yes his share might be slightly down on 2019, I'm just saying it won't be as much as you speculated above and partly for that reason.

[Pete Whitehead]

I have been out drinking in this constituency tonight, as I do from time to time. Naturally this gives me a unique insiight into the likely voting intentions of the inhabitants (not least the French tourists who made up a large part of my fellow drinkers)
On the entire train journey from Welwyn Garden City to Kings Cross (Welwyn Hatfield; Hertsmere; Enfield Southgate; Chipping Barnet; Hornsey & Friern Barnet; Islington North; Islington South & Finsbury; Holborn & St Pancras) I saw not a single poster for any party (nor did I on the reasonably long walk from Welwyn Garden City station to my home (as I have not in most parts of Hertfordshire I regularly travel to/through (St Albans is, as always a forest of Lib Den 'winning here' boards but that is hardly contentious this time and was always the case even when they weren't)))
The one election related poster I did see was one that said 'vote for parties opposed to war' or words to that effect, just before the train drew into Finsbury Park (it was probably in Stroud Green ward, ie the Hornsey constituency). Perhaps parties choose not to display posters in the back of houses abutting onto railway lines but if that's the case they are missing a trick.

I'm imterested in @weld's identification of 'stoners' as a distinct and coherent voting bloc, speaking as a former (and probably future) member of that 'community'
My old friend Bob, who has never been outwith that 'community' since I have known him in his teens, expresses views on race which make me blush. His friend Jamie who used to sort me out back in the day has similar views. Having lost touch with both for a number of years, I had the good fortune to bump into them both at a Brexit party event in Watford ahead of the 2019 Euro elections.
Most of my old smoking companions as it happens were Jewish (notwithstanding Bob) and while mostly on the left then, most are now centrist dads at worst or on the right - one or two still clearly on the left but absolutely none likely to vote for pro-Hamas Independents. Probably not a very representative group, but is there such a thing as a representative group of 'stoners'? I'd suggest not..


TL;DR @weld is talking shite - but this is not an entirely novel observation, and he does at least have a certain entertainment value more than some of the tedious triumphalist 'It's Happening!!1' brigade we see on so many other threads.

[Deleted]

Jun 22, 2024 2:29:40 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

I have been out drinking in this constituency tonight, as I do from time to time. Naturally this gives me a unique insiight into the likely voting intentions of the inhabitants (not least the French tourists who made up a large part of my fellow drinkers)
On the entire train journey from Welwyn Garden City to Kings Cross (Welwyn Hatfield; Hertsmere; Enfield Southgate; Chipping Barnet; Hornsey & Friern Barnet; Islington North; Islington South & Finsbury; Holborn & St Pancras) I saw not a single poster for any party (nor did I on the reasonably long walk from Welwyn Garden City station to my home (as I have not in most parts of Hertfordshire I regularly travel to/through (St Albans is, as always a forest of Lib Den 'winning here' boards but that is hardly contentious this time and was always the case even when they weren't)))
The one election related poster I did see was one that said 'vote for parties opposed to war' or words to that effect, just before the train drew into Finsbury Park (it was probably in Stroud Green ward, ie the Hornsey constituency). Perhaps parties choose not to display posters in the back of houses abutting onto railway lines but if that's the case they are missing a trick.

I'm imterested in @weld 's identification of 'stoners' as a distinct and coherent voting bloc, speaking as a former (and probably future) member of that 'community'
My old friend Bob, who has never been outwith that 'community' since I have known him in his teens, expresses views on race which make me blush. His friend Jamie who used to sort me out back in the day has similar views. Having lost touch with both for a number of years, I had the good fortune to bump into them both at a Brexit party event in Watford ahead of the 2019 Euro elections.
Most of my old smoking companions as it happens were Jewish (notwithstanding Bob) and while mostly on the left then, most are now centrist dads at worst or on the right - one or two still clearly on the left but absolutely none likely to vote for pro-Hamas Independents. Probably not a very representative group, but is there such a thing as a representative group of 'stoners'? I'd suggest not..


TL;DR @weld is talking shite - but this is not an entirely novel observation, and he does at least have a certain entertainment value more than some of the tedious triumphalist 'It's Happening!!1' brigade we see on so many other threads.

Talking to my friend who was at UCL he fits the 'stoner' voting bloc perfectly. For the 'parties opposed to war' poster, this sentiment expressed by my friend and others like him is based on the idea that both Labour and the Tories are complicit in the suffering in Gaza. I think whoever put up that poster will vote for Corbyn or the Greens if they can vote in the seat (or possibly Lib Dem).

The 'stoner' voter in Camden, Islington or the Hackney: went to UCL or another London uni; lives in a house share with (usually two other two people); may have a Masters in something fairly useless; bakes their own bread and has done since Covid; only smokes Californian weed; loves Corbyn; refers to Starmer as "Keith" and probably hales from somewhere like Kent and underwent a rapid transformation in their voting patterns after the age of 18; holidays in Thailand or Vietnam pretty much exclusively; alternates between cannabis and acid. 

Then you have my mate in Hove who is a bit different: Blairite (still); hates Corbyn; would vote Green if they could; went to CND marches in the 80s; works in the public sector (usually in education) etc. 

Back to Holborn & St Pancras, I reckon a lot of the stoner vote described in my second paragraph voted for Natalie Bennett in 2015, which is why I see the 12% vote share see got (very decent for the Greens all things considered) to be Feinstein's floor here.

[Pete Whitehead]

There is a type - obviously - in Camden, and some neighbourng boroughs which fit the streotype you describe, but it is a sterotype, which like all such contain an element of truth but miss the complexities of people's identity. I doubt that very many people regard themselves as consumers of cannabis as their primary identity. The fact that many people in Camden, Islington and Hackney fit the steorotype you describe has far more to do with the fact they live in Camden, Islington or Hackney than with whatever shit they put into their lungs

[Deleted]

Jun 22, 2024 2:55:17 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

There is a type - obviously - in Camden, and some neighbourng boroughs which fit the streotype you describe, but it is a sterotype, which like all such contain an element of truth but miss the complexities of people's identity. I doubt that very many people regard themselves as consumers of cannabis as their primary identity. The fact that many people in Camden, Islington and Hackney fit the steorotype you describe has far more to do with the fact they live in Camden, Islington or Hackney than with whatever shit they put into their lungs

For sure, as my mate in Portslade shows. These areas are quite distinctive even for London, along with bits of Haringey and Southwark - they voted for AV lol. It's self-sorting, people move to these places because they're looking for a certain version of a good time, whereas a family with kids might move out closer to where you are.

[Pete Whitehead]

I was seeing a woman in Islington a little while ago (Bunhill ward, almost the City). She was a stonehead - skunk every day (I can't be doing with that shit). She was nothing like the type of people you describe. Old school cockney - family in Clacton adn Canvey etc

[Deleted]

Jun 22, 2024 3:11:37 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

I was seeing a woman in Islington a little while ago (Bunhill ward, almost the City). She was a stonehead - skunk every day (I can't be doing with that shit). She was nothing like the type of people you describe. Old school cockney - family in Clacton adn Canvey etc

There's still a residual old school WWC vote like that in Islin'ton South (much of it on the estates) - UKIP got 8% there in 2015. UKIP held their deposit in this seat in 2015, so there'll be voters like that around Camden too. The stoners I described nearly always rent privately, since they haven't lived in an area long enough to get social housing (although they often live in ex-council flats like the one I was in in Hackney). In the areas once in Finsbury and Holborn boroughs, most council housing isn't affordable for tenants to buy (even at 40% of market value).

[Pete Whitehead]

I get it's a shorthand - like 'kind yuppies' and whatever those other fuckwitted tribes someone came up with. I just think it is of limited utility. You're taling about Bobos more or less

[Deleted]

AdminSTB stb12 , your decisions are final on polls, but I humbly ask you to reconsider for this constituency, which appears to have the most ad spending of any seat:

[Pete Whitehead]

Jun 23, 2024 5:32:25 GMT @weld said:

AdminSTB stb12 , your decisions are final on polls, but I humbly ask you to reconsider for this constituency, which appears to have the most ad spending of any seat:

Have a look at the interactive map above the one you posted. I don't know how Meta advertising works, but I imagine that like the Royal Mail Freepost (only more so) it isn't as precise as it might be and therefore people will be picking up noise from neighbouring constituencies. In this case I guess principally the Cities and Islington North.
Otherwise how do you explain the Greens in Brecon & Radnor, South Shropshire etc, the Lib Dems in Hastings & Rye etc

[Deleted]

Jun 23, 2024 7:14:24 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Jun 23, 2024 5:32:25 GMT @weld said:

AdminSTB stb12 , your decisions are final on polls, but I humbly ask you to reconsider for this constituency, which appears to have the most ad spending of any seat:

Have a look at the interactive map above the one you posted. I don't know how Meta advertising works, but I imagine that like the Royal Mail Freepost (only more so) it isn't as precise as it might be and therefore people will be picking up noise from neighbouring constituencies. In this case I guess principally the Cities and Islington North.
Otherwise how do you explain the Greens in Brecon & Radnor, South Shropshire etc, the Lib Dems in Hastings & Rye etc

Fair, although I still think we should get a poll here in case that's not the reason. I think we should do a poll and break it down into 'Holborn' and 'St Pancras'