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Post by stb12 on Mar 13, 2024 21:47:55 GMT
Harrow East
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 18, 2024 20:03:53 GMT
Link to profile2021 Census New Boundaries (ranks England and Wales) Age 65+ 16.7% 388/575 Owner occupied 61.8% 372/575 Private rented 28.0% 80/575 Social rented 10.2% 507/575 White 36.5% 560/575 Black 6.8% 97/575 Asian 46.5% 13/575 Religion Hindu 28.0% 3/575 Religion Other 3.9% 1/575 Managerial & professional 31.1% 327/575 Routine & Semi-routine 17.1% 481/575 Degree level 40.7% 105/575 No qualifications 20.9% 152/575 Students 8.9% 126/575 Boundary ChangesHarrow East consists of 91.2% of Harrow East 12.6% of Brent North 0.9% of Ruislip, Northwood & Pinner 0.2% of Harrow West Mapboundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/london/London_145_Harrow%20East_Portrait.pdfNotional result 2019 on the new boundaries (Rallings & Thrasher) Con | 28555 | 54.6% | Lab | 19568 | 37.4% | LD | 3930 | 7.5% | Grn | 138 | 0.3% | Brexit | 98 | 0.2% | | | | Majority | 8987 | 17.2% |
Candidates: Conservative - Bob Blackman - incumbent Labour - Primesh PatelLib Dem - Reeten BanerjiReform UK - Roger Clark
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 29, 2024 9:54:21 GMT
Notional results since 1945. The 2019 result is the 'official' (Thrasher & Rallings) notional - the others are my own work | Con | Lab | Lib | Com | | | | | | 1945 | 36.4% | 45.4% | 13.4% | 4.9% | 1950 | 44.6% | 41.8% | 12.6% | 1.1% | 1951 | 49.5% | 43.9% | 6.6% | | 1955 | 56.2% | 42.1% | 1.7% | | 1959 | 58.8% | 39.0% | 2.2% | | 1964 | 51.1% | 41.9% | 7.0% | | 1966 | 44.0% | 41.6% | 14.3% | |
| Con | Lab | Lib/LD | NF/BNP | | | | | | 1970 | 51.2% | 38.4% | 10.0% | | 1974 | 44.1% | 32.4% | 22.6% | 0.8% | 1974 | 45.9% | 35.6% | 17.6% | 0.9% | 1979 | 53.8% | 33.4% | 11.3% | 1.5% | 1983 | 53.4% | 21.8% | 24.8% | | 1987 | 58.2% | 23.3% | 18.5% | | 1992 | 56.7% | 32.3% | 9.1% | |
| Con | Lab | LD | Ref/UKIP/ BXP | Green | | | | | | | 1997 | 38.2% | 51.1% | 7.3% | 2.5% | | 2001 | 34.6% | 54.3% | 11.1% | | | 2005 | 38.8% | 45.2% | 14.1% | 1.7% | | 2010 | 44.6% | 37.8% | 13.8% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2015 | 50.0% | 41.0% | 2.2% | 4.6% | 1.8% | 2017 | 49.3% | 46.3% | 2.9% | | 1.4% | 2019 | 54.6% | 37.4% | 7.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
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Post by batman on Apr 29, 2024 11:31:43 GMT
Interesting that this is notionally Conservative for 1966.
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Post by bjornhattan on Apr 29, 2024 11:41:59 GMT
Interesting that this is notionally Conservative for 1966. Given Wembley North was quite securely Conservative (it included Queensbury at the time) it does make sense - Labour were only barely ahead here on the old boundaries.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 29, 2024 12:04:06 GMT
Also picks up Kenton (West) from Harrow Central
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 29, 2024 12:20:21 GMT
Actually the area added from Wembley North (Queensbury plus a bit of Kingsbury in terms of the wards then in use) would have been pretty much neck and neck. It's entirely Kenton which makes the difference
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Post by norflondon on May 31, 2024 5:56:36 GMT
This is one of those seats that because of the Con polling and Reform standing has turned it into a marginal. I'd expect Labour to win here. They have a councillor standing called Patel standing. A bit of a plus in Harrow I'd think.
Candidates: so far
Reetendra Nath Banerji (Lib Democrats) Bob Blackman (Conservative) Roger Clark (Reform UK) Sarraj Farwani (WPB) Sabira Lakha (Independent) Sebastian Newsam (Green Party) Primesh Patel (Labour Party
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Post by Deleted on May 31, 2024 6:02:36 GMT
The Tories did well here in the 2022 locals against the grain for London, and seem to have held up well in the Mayoral and GLA elections - Conservative hold. Having done some work in the area, there are a lot of aspirational Hindu families here who won't be happy with increased private school fees (I know, cry me a fucking river). The on-going impact of ULEZ may also help the Tories a bit here, considering the by-election result in Uxbridge & South Ruislip not far away. Bob Blackman is pretty well-liked here and I've met British Indians as far away as Milton Keynes who've spoken highly of him before.
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Post by kitesurfer on May 31, 2024 6:55:57 GMT
The Tories did well here in the 2022 locals against the grain for London, and seem to have held up well in the Mayoral and GLA elections - Conservative hold. Having done some work in the area, there are a lot of aspirational Hindu families here who won't be happy with increased private school fees (I know, cry me a fucking river). The on-going impact of ULEZ may also help the Tories a bit here, considering the by-election result in Uxbridge & South Ruislip not far away. Bob Blackman is pretty well-liked here and I've met British Indians as far away as Milton Keynes who've spoken highly of him before. I agree with this. Hindus disproportionately send their children to private school relative to people from other walks of life. They often make big savings on other areas to afford it, including often putting up with older cars many of which were not ULEZ-compliant. Tories have their heads screwed on here. Oh and it helps that Rishi is Hindu. If there is any Tory seat that will get a smaller swing than the rest of England, it will be this one. This will not be a repeat of Harrow West in 1997. I am calling this for the Tories.
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Post by stb12 on May 31, 2024 7:01:19 GMT
Labour got within 2000 votes in 2017 with a similar candidate. I'm confident Labour will win notwithstanding your good points above. I think there is more chance of Labour dropping VAT on private education in England than keeping it. As mentioned on other threads it’s likely that the national swing will be smaller in London than most of the country because there’s already been a pretty significant anti-Tory backlash there over the last couple of elections. And while it’s tempting to think any seat with a certain level of majority will go there will surely be one of two that they hold against the national picture
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Post by johnloony on May 31, 2024 7:31:08 GMT
This is one of those seats that because of the Con polling and Reform standing has turned it into a marginal. I'd expect Labour to win here. They have a councillor standing called Patel standing. A bit of a plus in Harrow I'd think. Candidates: so far Reetendra Nath Banerji (Lib Democrats) Bob Blackman (Conservative) Roger Clark (Reform UK) Sarraj Farwani (WPB) Sabira Lakha (Independent) Sebastian Newsam (Green Party) Primesh Patel (Labour Party I knew a Reeten Banerji at university. I didn’t know him much, but we were part of the delegation that went to NUS conference in 1995. I wonder if he’s the same person?
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Post by norflondon on May 31, 2024 8:18:17 GMT
Boundary change: I have just seen Labour will lose a good ward and Tories gain one where they are 50/50 or better (Wealdstone N / Queensbury). So yes close one this TCTC, although I'd say: CON 41% LAB 42% LDEM 7% GRN 4% REF 4% OTH 2%
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 31, 2024 8:36:57 GMT
Boundary change: I have just seen Labour will lose a good ward and Tories gain one where they are 50/50 or better (Wealdstone N / Queensbury). So yes close one this TCTC, although I'd say: CON 41% LAB 42% LDEM 7% GRN 4% REF 4% OTH 2% The notional results show little difference as a result of these changes: Con 54.4 Lab 37.9 on the existing boundaries; Con 54.6 Lab 37.4 on the new. So on the face of it a negligible shift. But - as you say, Queensbury ward was neck and neck in the 2022 local elections whereas Wealdstone (North) remained rock solid for Labour. They appear to balance each other out because Labour would have been well ahead in the area coming in from Brent North in 2019. take away Barry Gardiner's incumbency and consider the overall pro-Conservative trend in this kind of area, and clearly these boundary changes do benefit the Conservatives way more tham the notional result implies
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Post by batman on May 31, 2024 12:25:21 GMT
I’m reading this thread in the constituency, sitting in B & K’s salt beef bar in Edgware (the Harrow part of it)
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Post by rcronald on May 31, 2024 12:38:47 GMT
I don’t know if this still holds true, but Blackman was a rather popular MP when I left (I’m not from the constituency, but I know this part of Harrow rather well). Both Harrow East, and Hendon are inelastic and should record relatively low swings (even compared to London).
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 31, 2024 12:38:58 GMT
I’m reading this thread in the constituency, sitting in B & K’s salt beef bar in Edgware (the Harrow part of it) The last time I was in this constituency, I was in a rather more pleasant part of it than that (Stanmore Common), but in engaged in a rather less pleasant task than munching on salt beef bagels (scattering my father's ashes)
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Post by batman on May 31, 2024 21:29:32 GMT
I’m reading this thread in the constituency, sitting in B & K’s salt beef bar in Edgware (the Harrow part of it) The last time I was in this constituency, I was in a rather more pleasant part of it than that (Stanmore Common), but in engaged in a rather less pleasant task than munching on salt beef bagels (scattering my father's ashes) I presume that this was not all that long ago, so may I be permitted to wish you & your family long life.
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nodealbrexiteer
Forum Regular
non aligned favour no deal brexit!
Posts: 4,359
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on May 31, 2024 21:30:31 GMT
The last time I was in this constituency, I was in a rather more pleasant part of it than that (Stanmore Common), but in engaged in a rather less pleasant task than munching on salt beef bagels (scattering my father's ashes) I presume that this was not all that long ago, so may I be permitted to wish you & your family long life. seconded
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Post by heslingtonian on Jun 1, 2024 15:04:04 GMT
The Tories did well here in the 2022 locals against the grain for London, and seem to have held up well in the Mayoral and GLA elections - Conservative hold. Having done some work in the area, there are a lot of aspirational Hindu families here who won't be happy with increased private school fees (I know, cry me a fucking river). The on-going impact of ULEZ may also help the Tories a bit here, considering the by-election result in Uxbridge & South Ruislip not far away. Bob Blackman is pretty well-liked here and I've met British Indians as far away as Milton Keynes who've spoken highly of him before. I agree with this. Hindus disproportionately send their children to private school relative to people from other walks of life. They often make big savings on other areas to afford it, including often putting up with older cars many of which were not ULEZ-compliant. Tories have their heads screwed on here. Oh and it helps that Rishi is Hindu. If there is any Tory seat that will get a smaller swing than the rest of England, it will be this one. This will not be a repeat of Harrow West in 1997. I am calling this for the Tories. I agree this will be an against the grain Conservative hold for all of the reasons previously given. I suspect this, Uxbridge and Peterborough to be the surprise Conservative holds.
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