Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 18, 2023 14:35:24 GMT
The Harrow East constituency was one of those created in 1945 due to the massive population growth in Middlesex in the inter-war years when the huge Hendon and Harrow county constituencies were reconfigured as six borough constituencies. Between then and now the boundaries have shifted a bit, back and forth – from 1950 to 1983 there was additionally a Harrow Central seat which took parts of this seat, then returned them – but the fundamental boundaries have remained similar. The last boundary change in 2010 removed the Greenhill and Marlborough wards in the Central area of Harrow which was not without electoral significance as this has become a strongly Labour area and probably made all the difference in 2017. On the new boundaries, Wealdstone North (basically the old Wealdstone ward – Wealdstone South covers much of the old Marlborough ward) is removed to Harrow West and the Brent ward of Queensbury is added.
The basic political character of this constituency has changed little over this period too. Labour won the first contest in 1945 and again on the pared down boundaries in 1966 but otherwise it was a moderately safe Conservative seat. In 1997 this produced one of the largest pro-Labour swings in the country and appeared to have moved straight from safe Conservative to safe Labour, as in neighbouring Brent North, especially when the majority was further consolidated in 2001.
This turned out to be a false dawn and unlike so much of London suburbia which did indeed move permanently to Labour at this time, Harrow East has gradually swung back to the Conservatives to the extent that the vote share achieved by Bob Blackman in 2019 was higher than the Conservatives have ever achieved here with the exception of 1959 which was a straight Conservative-Labour contest.
Indeed the overall electoral balance and the internal political character of this constituency is not very different to what it was in the 1970s or the 1950s which is fairly astonishing considering the huge demographic (that is to say ethnic) change which has occurred since then.
The strongest Conservative area has always been Stanmore in the North East of the constituency – the wards of Belmont, Canons and Stanmore. The last two are amongst the most heavily Jewish wards in the country which obviously helps the Conservatives but except for a few small council estates these are also very affluent middle-class wards. In the North towards the border with Hertfordshire, around Stanmore common there is very considerable wealth and new luxury housing developments on the site of Bentley Priory (HQ of fighter command in WW2).
The Labour counterbalance was and is in the south of the constituency on the border with Brent – the wards of Edgware, Centenary and Kenton East. These areas are now very heavily Asian and with amongst the highest proportions of Hindus in the country. This whole area is typified by modest inter-war semi-detached and terraced housing based around light industrial estates along Honeypot Lane. This has never been a very upmarket area and the wards here were generally reliably Labour even when they were overwhelmingly white.
If anything, the trend here has been in the direction of the Conservatives in recent years as that party won in Kenton East in 2018 while Zac Goldsmith had done very well here in the 2016 Mayoral election.
In the 2022 local elections this area was key to the Conservatives gaining control of Harrow council as they won all the seats in Kenton and Centenary and two of the three in Edgware. Bob Blackman enjoys notably good relations with the local Indian community and has been able to achieve at least a very large minority vote in these wards which has been crucial to his success. Kenton West is rather more middle-class than these other wards but has rather trended more to Labour over the years as it is close to the centre of Harrow which is the area of the borough which has swung most heavily to Labour.
The constituency was completed by two wards of rather different nature in the North West. Harrow Weald contains a mixture of housing types. There are very pleasant and wealthy areas in the North, shading into the more ubiquitous inter-war semis down towards Wealdstone. There is also a large council estate off the Uxbridge Road including a large number of prefabs built by Italian POWs right after the end of the war (In general the proportion of social housing in this constituency is very low.)
Harrow Weald used to be a Labour leaning ward and then went through a long phase of electing Lib Dem councillors but has become more reliably Conservative in recent years. It is, relative to the bulk of the seat, still a predominantly white area.
Wealdstone to the South of Harrow Weald and towards the centre of Harrow was now Labour’s outstanding area of strength. This always was a Labour stronghold but unlike the areas in the South East has continued to move further in their favour. There is much older housing – terraces from the period before the first world war. This is a much more multi-ethnic area as well. There are considerably more black residents here than in the rest of the constituency and more Muslims. This was also, and remains, an area with a large Irish population.
On the face of it the replacement of Wealdstone with the Queensbury ward from Brent may appear to be broadly neutral, as that ward would also have clearly voted Labour at all recent general elections. But this ward (which extends as far as the centre of Kingsbury) is demographically similar to the neighbouring wards in Harrow – heavily Indian and Hindu – and in 2022 the result here mirrored that in the neighbouring ward of Edgware, with the Conservatives topping the poll and winning two of three seats. It is not impossible that this area could swing to the Conservatives at the next election – at the very least any adverse swing is likely to be minimised as the Conservatives continue to make inroads with the Hindu community, assisted further no doubt by the presence of one of their number in Downing Street.
Labour strength in Wealdstone was nowhere near enough to carry the constituency without enjoying a very substantial lead in wards such as Kenton East and Edgware. Labour managed this at the turn of the century and may do so again. Harrow East is very unusual – unique even – in being a part of London that has undergone massive changes to its ethnic composition (the proportion of White British was only 27% in 2011) while retaining (or rather regaining) considerable Conservative strength. The contrast with neighbouring Brent North and indeed Harrow West is striking. The question arises how much is due to the personal popularity of Bob Blackman who has done so much to cultivate the Indian vote and whether a successor can keep the coalition of voters together. Given the tendency to bloc-voting that characterises many ethnic minority communities, this could easily unravel. But as things currently stand, the Conservatives are better placed to limit the effects of a negative national swing here than in just about any other seat in London.
The basic political character of this constituency has changed little over this period too. Labour won the first contest in 1945 and again on the pared down boundaries in 1966 but otherwise it was a moderately safe Conservative seat. In 1997 this produced one of the largest pro-Labour swings in the country and appeared to have moved straight from safe Conservative to safe Labour, as in neighbouring Brent North, especially when the majority was further consolidated in 2001.
This turned out to be a false dawn and unlike so much of London suburbia which did indeed move permanently to Labour at this time, Harrow East has gradually swung back to the Conservatives to the extent that the vote share achieved by Bob Blackman in 2019 was higher than the Conservatives have ever achieved here with the exception of 1959 which was a straight Conservative-Labour contest.
Indeed the overall electoral balance and the internal political character of this constituency is not very different to what it was in the 1970s or the 1950s which is fairly astonishing considering the huge demographic (that is to say ethnic) change which has occurred since then.
The strongest Conservative area has always been Stanmore in the North East of the constituency – the wards of Belmont, Canons and Stanmore. The last two are amongst the most heavily Jewish wards in the country which obviously helps the Conservatives but except for a few small council estates these are also very affluent middle-class wards. In the North towards the border with Hertfordshire, around Stanmore common there is very considerable wealth and new luxury housing developments on the site of Bentley Priory (HQ of fighter command in WW2).
The Labour counterbalance was and is in the south of the constituency on the border with Brent – the wards of Edgware, Centenary and Kenton East. These areas are now very heavily Asian and with amongst the highest proportions of Hindus in the country. This whole area is typified by modest inter-war semi-detached and terraced housing based around light industrial estates along Honeypot Lane. This has never been a very upmarket area and the wards here were generally reliably Labour even when they were overwhelmingly white.
If anything, the trend here has been in the direction of the Conservatives in recent years as that party won in Kenton East in 2018 while Zac Goldsmith had done very well here in the 2016 Mayoral election.
In the 2022 local elections this area was key to the Conservatives gaining control of Harrow council as they won all the seats in Kenton and Centenary and two of the three in Edgware. Bob Blackman enjoys notably good relations with the local Indian community and has been able to achieve at least a very large minority vote in these wards which has been crucial to his success. Kenton West is rather more middle-class than these other wards but has rather trended more to Labour over the years as it is close to the centre of Harrow which is the area of the borough which has swung most heavily to Labour.
The constituency was completed by two wards of rather different nature in the North West. Harrow Weald contains a mixture of housing types. There are very pleasant and wealthy areas in the North, shading into the more ubiquitous inter-war semis down towards Wealdstone. There is also a large council estate off the Uxbridge Road including a large number of prefabs built by Italian POWs right after the end of the war (In general the proportion of social housing in this constituency is very low.)
Harrow Weald used to be a Labour leaning ward and then went through a long phase of electing Lib Dem councillors but has become more reliably Conservative in recent years. It is, relative to the bulk of the seat, still a predominantly white area.
Wealdstone to the South of Harrow Weald and towards the centre of Harrow was now Labour’s outstanding area of strength. This always was a Labour stronghold but unlike the areas in the South East has continued to move further in their favour. There is much older housing – terraces from the period before the first world war. This is a much more multi-ethnic area as well. There are considerably more black residents here than in the rest of the constituency and more Muslims. This was also, and remains, an area with a large Irish population.
On the face of it the replacement of Wealdstone with the Queensbury ward from Brent may appear to be broadly neutral, as that ward would also have clearly voted Labour at all recent general elections. But this ward (which extends as far as the centre of Kingsbury) is demographically similar to the neighbouring wards in Harrow – heavily Indian and Hindu – and in 2022 the result here mirrored that in the neighbouring ward of Edgware, with the Conservatives topping the poll and winning two of three seats. It is not impossible that this area could swing to the Conservatives at the next election – at the very least any adverse swing is likely to be minimised as the Conservatives continue to make inroads with the Hindu community, assisted further no doubt by the presence of one of their number in Downing Street.
Labour strength in Wealdstone was nowhere near enough to carry the constituency without enjoying a very substantial lead in wards such as Kenton East and Edgware. Labour managed this at the turn of the century and may do so again. Harrow East is very unusual – unique even – in being a part of London that has undergone massive changes to its ethnic composition (the proportion of White British was only 27% in 2011) while retaining (or rather regaining) considerable Conservative strength. The contrast with neighbouring Brent North and indeed Harrow West is striking. The question arises how much is due to the personal popularity of Bob Blackman who has done so much to cultivate the Indian vote and whether a successor can keep the coalition of voters together. Given the tendency to bloc-voting that characterises many ethnic minority communities, this could easily unravel. But as things currently stand, the Conservatives are better placed to limit the effects of a negative national swing here than in just about any other seat in London.
