Harrow East

[stb12]

Harrow East

[Pete Whitehead]

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Sept 18, 2023 16:47:04 GMT Robert Waller said:

2021 Census New Boundaries (ranks England and Wales)

Age 65+ 16.7% 388/575
Owner occupied 61.8% 372/575
Private rented 28.0% 80/575
Social rented 10.2% 507/575
White 36.5% 560/575
Black 6.8% 97/575
Asian 46.5% 13/575
Religion Hindu 28.0% 3/575
Religion Other 3.9% 1/575
Managerial & professional 31.1% 327/575
Routine & Semi-routine 17.1% 481/575
Degree level 40.7% 105/575
No qualifications 20.9% 152/575
Students 8.9% 126/575

Boundary Changes
Harrow East consists of
91.2% of Harrow East
12.6% of Brent North
0.9% of Ruislip, Northwood & Pinner
0.2% of Harrow West

Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/london/London_145_Harrow%20East_Portrait.pdf

Notional result 2019 on the new boundaries (Rallings & Thrasher)

Con	28555	54.6%
Lab	19568	37.4%
LD	3930	7.5%
Grn	138	0.3%
Brexit	98	0.2%
Majority	8987	17.2%

Candidates:

Conservative - Bob Blackman - incumbent
Labour - Primesh Patel
Lib Dem - Reeten Banerji
Reform UK - Roger Clark

[Pete Whitehead]

Notional results since 1945. The 2019 result is the 'official' (Thrasher & Rallings) notional - the others are my own work

	Con	Lab	Lib	Com
1945	36.4%	45.4%	13.4%	4.9%
1950	44.6%	41.8%	12.6%	1.1%
1951	49.5%	43.9%	6.6%
1955	56.2%	42.1%	1.7%
1959	58.8%	39.0%	2.2%
1964	51.1%	41.9%	7.0%
1966	44.0%	41.6%	14.3%

	Con	Lab	Lib/LD	NF/BNP
1970	51.2%	38.4%	10.0%
1974	44.1%	32.4%	22.6%	0.8%
1974	45.9%	35.6%	17.6%	0.9%
1979	53.8%	33.4%	11.3%	1.5%
1983	53.4%	21.8%	24.8%
1987	58.2%	23.3%	18.5%
1992	56.7%	32.3%	9.1%

	Con	Lab	LD	Ref/UKIP/ BXP	Green
1997	38.2%	51.1%	7.3%	2.5%
2001	34.6%	54.3%	11.1%
2005	38.8%	45.2%	14.1%	1.7%
2010	44.6%	37.8%	13.8%	1.9%	1.6%
2015	50.0%	41.0%	2.2%	4.6%	1.8%
2017	49.3%	46.3%	2.9%		1.4%
2019	54.6%	37.4%	7.5%	0.2%	0.2%

[batman]

Interesting that this is notionally Conservative for 1966.

[bjornhattan]

Apr 29, 2024 11:31:43 GMT batman said:

Interesting that this is notionally Conservative for 1966.

Given Wembley North was quite securely Conservative (it included Queensbury at the time) it does make sense - Labour were only barely ahead here on the old boundaries.

[Pete Whitehead]

Also picks up Kenton (West) from Harrow Central

[Pete Whitehead]

Actually the area added from Wembley North (Queensbury plus a bit of Kingsbury in terms of the wards then in use) would have been pretty much neck and neck. It's entirely Kenton which makes the difference

[norflondon]

This is one of those seats that because of the Con polling and Reform standing has turned it into a marginal. I'd expect Labour to win here. They have a councillor standing called Patel standing. A bit of a plus in Harrow I'd think.

Candidates: so far

Reetendra Nath Banerji (Lib Democrats)
Bob Blackman (Conservative)
Roger Clark (Reform UK)
Sarraj Farwani (WPB)
Sabira Lakha (Independent)
Sebastian Newsam (Green Party)
Primesh Patel (Labour Party

[Deleted]

The Tories did well here in the 2022 locals against the grain for London, and seem to have held up well in the Mayoral and GLA elections - Conservative hold. Having done some work in the area, there are a lot of aspirational Hindu families here who won't be happy with increased private school fees (I know, cry me a fucking river). The on-going impact of ULEZ may also help the Tories a bit here, considering the by-election result in Uxbridge & South Ruislip not far away. Bob Blackman is pretty well-liked here and I've met British Indians as far away as Milton Keynes who've spoken highly of him before. 

[kitesurfer]

May 31, 2024 6:02:36 GMT @weld said:

The Tories did well here in the 2022 locals against the grain for London, and seem to have held up well in the Mayoral and GLA elections - Conservative hold. Having done some work in the area, there are a lot of aspirational Hindu families here who won't be happy with increased private school fees (I know, cry me a fucking river). The on-going impact of ULEZ may also help the Tories a bit here, considering the by-election result in Uxbridge & South Ruislip not far away. Bob Blackman is pretty well-liked here and I've met British Indians as far away as Milton Keynes who've spoken highly of him before. 

I agree with this.

Hindus disproportionately send their children to private school relative to people from other walks of life. They often make big savings on other areas to afford it, including often putting up with older cars many of which were not ULEZ-compliant. Tories have their heads screwed on here. Oh and it helps that Rishi is Hindu.

If there is any Tory seat that will get a smaller swing than the rest of England, it will be this one. This will not be a repeat of Harrow West in 1997. I am calling this for the Tories.

[stb12]

May 31, 2024 6:06:43 GMT norflondon said:

Labour got within 2000 votes in 2017 with a similar candidate. I'm confident Labour will win notwithstanding your good points above. I think there is more chance of Labour dropping VAT on private education in England than keeping it.

As mentioned on other threads it’s likely that the national swing will be smaller in London than most of the country because there’s already been a pretty significant anti-Tory backlash there over the last couple of elections. And while it’s tempting to think any seat with a certain level of majority will go there will surely be one of two that they hold against the national picture

[johnloony]

May 31, 2024 5:56:36 GMT norflondon said:

This is one of those seats that because of the Con polling and Reform standing has turned it into a marginal. I'd expect Labour to win here. They have a councillor standing called Patel standing. A bit of a plus in Harrow I'd think.

Candidates: so far

Reetendra Nath Banerji (Lib Democrats)
Bob Blackman (Conservative)
Roger Clark (Reform UK)
Sarraj Farwani (WPB)
Sabira Lakha (Independent)
Sebastian Newsam (Green Party)
Primesh Patel (Labour Party

I knew a Reeten Banerji at university. I didn’t know him much, but we were part of the delegation that went to NUS conference in 1995. I wonder if he’s the same person?

[norflondon]

Boundary change: I have just seen Labour will lose a good ward and Tories gain one where they are 50/50 or better (Wealdstone N / Queensbury). So yes close one this TCTC, although I'd say:
CON 41%
LAB 42%
LDEM 7%
GRN 4%
REF 4%
OTH 2%

[Pete Whitehead]

May 31, 2024 8:18:17 GMT norflondon said:

Boundary change: I have just seen Labour will lose a good ward and Tories gain one where they are 50/50 or better (Wealdstone N / Queensbury). So yes close one this TCTC, although I'd say:
CON 41%
LAB 42%
LDEM 7%
GRN 4%
REF 4%
OTH 2%

The notional results show little difference as a result of these changes: Con 54.4 Lab 37.9 on the existing boundaries; Con 54.6 Lab 37.4 on the new. So on the face of it a negligible shift.
But - as you say, Queensbury ward was neck and neck in the 2022 local elections whereas Wealdstone (North) remained rock solid for Labour. They appear to balance each other out because Labour would have been well ahead in the area coming in from Brent North in 2019. take away Barry Gardiner's incumbency and consider the overall pro-Conservative trend in this kind of area, and clearly these boundary changes do benefit the Conservatives way more tham the notional result implies

[batman]

I’m reading this thread in the constituency, sitting in B & K’s salt beef bar in Edgware (the Harrow part of it)

[rcronald]

I don’t know if this still holds true, but Blackman was a rather popular MP when I left (I’m not from the constituency, but I know this part of Harrow rather well). Both Harrow East, and Hendon are inelastic and should record relatively low swings (even compared to London).

[Pete Whitehead]

May 31, 2024 12:25:21 GMT batman said:

I’m reading this thread in the constituency, sitting in B & K’s salt beef bar in Edgware (the Harrow part of it)

The last time I was in this constituency, I was in a rather more pleasant part of it than that (Stanmore Common), but in engaged in a rather less pleasant task than munching on salt beef bagels (scattering my father's ashes)

[batman]

May 31, 2024 12:38:58 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

May 31, 2024 12:25:21 GMT batman said:

I’m reading this thread in the constituency, sitting in B & K’s salt beef bar in Edgware (the Harrow part of it)

The last time I was in this constituency, I was in a rather more pleasant part of it than that (Stanmore Common), but in engaged in a rather less pleasant task than munching on salt beef bagels (scattering my father's ashes)

I presume that this was not all that long ago, so may I be permitted to wish you & your family long life. 

[nodealbrexiteer]

May 31, 2024 21:29:32 GMT batman said:

May 31, 2024 12:38:58 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

The last time I was in this constituency, I was in a rather more pleasant part of it than that (Stanmore Common), but in engaged in a rather less pleasant task than munching on salt beef bagels (scattering my father's ashes)

I presume that this was not all that long ago, so may I be permitted to wish you & your family long life. 

seconded

[heslingtonian]

May 31, 2024 6:55:57 GMT kitesurfer said:

May 31, 2024 6:02:36 GMT @weld said:

The Tories did well here in the 2022 locals against the grain for London, and seem to have held up well in the Mayoral and GLA elections - Conservative hold. Having done some work in the area, there are a lot of aspirational Hindu families here who won't be happy with increased private school fees (I know, cry me a fucking river). The on-going impact of ULEZ may also help the Tories a bit here, considering the by-election result in Uxbridge & South Ruislip not far away. Bob Blackman is pretty well-liked here and I've met British Indians as far away as Milton Keynes who've spoken highly of him before. 

I agree with this.

Hindus disproportionately send their children to private school relative to people from other walks of life. They often make big savings on other areas to afford it, including often putting up with older cars many of which were not ULEZ-compliant. Tories have their heads screwed on here. Oh and it helps that Rishi is Hindu.

If there is any Tory seat that will get a smaller swing than the rest of England, it will be this one. This will not be a repeat of Harrow West in 1997. I am calling this for the Tories.

I agree this will be an against the grain Conservative hold for all of the reasons previously given. I suspect this, Uxbridge and Peterborough to be the surprise Conservative holds.