Harrow East

[batman]

Uxbridge will be harder for the Tories than this constituency although the two seats do have certain similarities.

[The Bishop]

Neither this seat nor Uxbridge would be huge "surprises" if the Tories held them (though I do note that Labour yesterday launched their "battle bus" in the latter)

Peterborough would certainly be, however - though I remain deeply sceptical it is really possible during a genuine "wave" election.

[stodge]

Jun 2, 2024 9:23:28 GMT The Bishop said:

Neither this seat nor Uxbridge would be huge "surprises" if the Tories held them (though I do note that Labour yesterday launched their "battle bus" in the latter)

Peterborough would certainly be, however - though I remain deeply sceptical it is really possible during a genuine "wave" election.

The Brent/Harrow results in May were interesting - Hall won the mayoral contest by about 8,000 but Labour won the GLA seat by nearly 9,000.

This pattern was repeated all over London - there was a significant anti-Khan vote but not an anti-Labour vote. Hall benefitted from the former but the Conservative GLA candidates at constituency level took a big hit.

As for Uxbridge, 5/2 for the Conservatives to hold is one of the more interesting bets and double it with 4/5 for them to hold Ruislip, Northwood & Pinner.

The Ealing/Hillingdon mayoral vote saw Hall edge out Khan by just over 2,000. Labour won the GLA constituency by just under 5,000. Those are fine margins but if you assume the three Ealing seats are safe Labour, I think the GLA result confirms Conservative strength in Hillingdon and both the seats should, I think, remain in the blue camp.

[norflondon]

Good post.

Sorry I have to point out that no bookmaker will allow doubles, multiples of any kind on seat betting, or actually anything in UK general election.

This is because what is called related contingencies; events that are co-related.

[ColinJ]

May 31, 2024 5:56:36 GMT norflondon said:

This is one of those seats that because of the Con polling and Reform standing has turned it into a marginal. I'd expect Labour to win here. They have a councillor standing called Patel standing. A bit of a plus in Harrow I'd think.

Candidates: so far

Reetendra Nath Banerji (Lib Democrats)
Bob Blackman (Conservative)
Roger Clark (Reform UK)
Sarraj Farwani (WPB)
Sabira Lakha (Independent)
Sebastian Newsam (Green Party)
Primesh Patel (Labour Party

The SOPN confirms that these seven are the candidates in Harrow East.
www.harrow.gov.uk/downloads/file/32287/Statement_of_Persons_Nominated_and_Notice_of_Poll_Harrow_East.pdf

Sabira Lakha (Independent) is an unknown quantity to me although a resident of Harrow East.  Their proposer, seconder and assentors also are unfamiliar.  She has a web site at:
www.sabiralakha4harroweast.uk/

[andrea]

in Sienna Rodgers' latest article on PoliticsHome dated yesterday:
Although it was suspected at the start of the campaign that Tory Bob Blackman’s seat could buck the trend and stay blue because of the “Modi effect” among Gujarati voters, Labour figures are now confident about their chances of gaining it.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Rishi Sunak (remember him?) was in the constituency today - in Kenton, at a Hindu Temple. With Susan Hall.

[Deleted]

Jun 22, 2024 20:06:05 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Rishi Sunak (remember him?) was in the constituency today - in Kenton, at a Hindu Temple. With Susan Hall.

No wonder Labour are feeling more bullish about the seat (if indeed they are). 

[batman]

I don't think that the Tories are doing as well amongst Hindu voters as they were in the 2022 elections. This however is merely a perception on my part based on canvassing I have done, and I can't pretend that I'm being scientific. The number of Jewish voters who will vote Labour (mostly to be found in Stanmore Park & Canons wards, but also in some others to a much lesser extent - certainly there are some in Edgware ward, although nothing like as many as in its Barnet namesake) will be much higher than in 2019, and that is certainly backed up by polls & election results (although those two wards will vote for Blackman). The swing that Labour requires, although not small, is modest in comparison with what is required in many other seats where the party is tipped to win. I still suspect Blackman may hold on, but if so it will be very close. I have never ruled out a Labour win here, although at the moment my vote marginally still goes to Con hold. It may still be one of the Tories' better results in London in comparative terms, even if they lose. If Labour are to win they will need to poll strongly amongst the Muslim community, which is far from negligible in some wards.

[Deleted]

I have this as the closest seat in London after Chelsea & Fulham, but in the opposite direction because Blackman may not see as much of a swing against him in the Jewish areas of the seat than the Tories will see in the Barnet seats due to incumbency and his opponent isn't as high profile as say, Sarah Sackman. Tory hold. 150 maj. 

[norflondon]

V little chance I think that Blavkman holds on. He won by just 1757 in 2017 against a middle class, safe Hindi ppc. Same again this time. National polls means easy Lab win. Blackman is not THAT popular that he will hold on and he has got REF to contend with. Many Libdemmers will vote tactically

Id say

LAB 47%
CON 36%

[greenhert]

Jun 23, 2024 15:06:47 GMT norflondon said:

V little chance I think that Blavkman holds on. He won by just 1757 in 2017 against a middle class, safe Hindi ppc. Same again this time. National polls means easy Lab win. Blackman is not THAT popular that he will hold on and he has got REF to contend with. Many Libdemmers will vote tactically

Id say

LAB 47%
CON 36%

Reform UK is likely to get one of its worst results here, actually.

[birkinabe]

Jun 23, 2024 18:06:31 GMT greenhert said:

Reform UK is likely to get one of its worst results here, actually.

While you're right, the Conservatives and Labour may well end up being close enough to each other here that how many votes Reform receives ends up determining the final outcome anyway.

[Deleted]

Jun 22, 2024 20:15:13 GMT batman said:

If Labour are to win they will need to poll strongly amongst the Muslim community, which is far from negligible in some wards.

Apropos of nothing but the Workers' Party are contesting Harrow East. I guess that could sap a few votes from Labour in this seat where the stars need to align. Full disclosure - I have bet on Blackman but I recognise that Labour were highly competitive here in the Corbyn years (ironic) along with Hendon and Chipping Barnet.

[Deleted]

Tory hold.

[norflondon]

Well done to those here that said Bob would hold on. An extraordinary personal result that will raise his stock in the Conservative Party.

Lab did significantly worse than in 2019 when they had a very lefty Corbynite. An odd result.

[jakegb]

Aside from gaining Leicester E, their best result of the night.

[Pete Whitehead]

Was this the only seat where the Conservatives surpassed 50% of the vote?

[Deleted]

Bigger majority here than in 1992 for the Tories. Unique for a Middlesex seat I think.

[Pete Whitehead]

Jul 5, 2024 6:35:51 GMT @weld said:

Bigger majority here than in 1992 for the Tories. Unique for a Middlesex seat I think.

Well it's almost unique in being a Middlesex seat that the Conservatives hava a majority in at all..