stb12
Top Poster
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Post by stb12 on Mar 13, 2024 21:37:50 GMT
Cities of London and Westminster
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Mar 19, 2024 9:56:13 GMT
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Mar 19, 2024 10:23:10 GMT
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,139
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Post by cogload on Mar 19, 2024 12:16:18 GMT
£300 for seat research? I think we are selling ourselves way too cheaply.
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ricmk
Lib Dem
Posts: 2,615
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Post by ricmk on Mar 19, 2024 16:13:32 GMT
Would be hilarious if that £300 gets you a copy and paste of our almanac entry…
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 14,755
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Post by J.G.Harston on Mar 19, 2024 18:25:31 GMT
Would be hilarious if that £300 gets you a copy and paste of our almanac entry… Well, when internally advertising S&W I pointed people at the entry here. |
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right
Conservative
Posts: 18,761
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Post by right on Mar 19, 2024 20:56:30 GMT
Conflict of interest questions aside (and Borwick should have seen that a mile off, no sympathy there) this sort of operation is a good thing There are too many Spads and people from Planet Westminster becoming MPs and far too few people with outside experience. As much as we'd like parties to provide this sort of thing it's bound to go down the list of priorities in favour of things that more obviously win elections, like trying to raise enough money for marginal seats. And that's before you get to the fact that the professional party bureaucracies that we expect to run these schemes are shot through with precisely the sort of Planet Westminster denizens who think that their years of parentally subsidised low paid drudgery has rightly earned them an inside track over talented outsiders. Properly incentivised operations like this level the playing field. And £10K for upping your chances of getting a winnable seat? These people will be in the top quartile (probably slightly higher) of earnings. If they aren't prepared to forego bucket list holidays and driving a latest model car for a couple of years to pay that sort of money, they aren't serious about being an MP. Do those a bit higher up the scale have any idea of the hit to their earnings if they do get selected and elected? Yes there is a question about people not in the earning a decent amount - but we're currently besieged by Spads and lobbyists and it would be nice to have some more people (on all sides of the house) who've done things like software development or run a decent sized division of a business. |
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Mar 23, 2024 17:50:26 GMT
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Mar 24, 2024 19:59:10 GMT
Michael Crick appears to be live tweeting the selection tonight.
1935: CITIES OF LONDON & WESTMINSTER: I hear there are about 300 Local Tory members at the selection meeting, including about a dozen lords & baronesses, among them former Conservative leader Michael Howard. Selections, of course, are the only chance peers get to vote for their MP.
1948: CITIES OF LONDON & WESTMINSTER: contender Jamie Njoku-Goodwin has been asked about his role as spad to Matt Hancock - which I'm sure he would have predicted. Tonight's meeting is being chaired by Lord (Robert) Hayward, former MP for Kingswood.
1950: 🔵CITIES OF LONDON & WESTMINSTER: more specifically, Njoku-Goodwin was asked whether he felt tainted by his role with the "disgraced' Matt Hancock, and gave a "very, very polished" answer, I'm told..
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Mar 24, 2024 20:00:18 GMT
1958: CITIES OF LONDON & WESTMINSTER: Sarah Bool has mentioned women's rights, and has also been getting a few laughs.
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Mar 24, 2024 20:16:35 GMT
(Things have fallen silent, I wonder how unofficial his commentary was. Perhaps a suit has ordered him to stop)
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Mar 24, 2024 20:27:01 GMT
2017: 🔵CITIES OF LONDON & WESTMINSTER: Tim Barnes tells selection meeting we need to crack down on weekly protests in London about foreign conflicts
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Post by batman on Mar 24, 2024 22:52:09 GMT
I'm not sure people are supposed to be reporting from such a meeting live
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Mar 25, 2024 3:37:31 GMT
Tim Barnes selected for the Tories. Crick reports that this was met by less than enthusiastic responses from some corners.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 26, 2024 17:09:03 GMT
Notional results since 1945. The 2019 result is the 'official' (Thrasher & Rallings) notional - the others are my own work | | Con | Lab | Lib | Com | | | | | | | | 1945 | 60.8% | 24.5% | 4.8% | 5.4% | | 1950 | 64.2% | 25.8% | 9.1% | 0.9% | | 1951 | 69.9% | 30.1% | | | | 1955 | 73.2% | 26.8% | | | | 1959 | 68.1% | 22.1% | 9.8% | | | 1964 | 60.1% | 26.9% | 13.0% | | | 1966 | 57.9% | 30.5% | 10.7% | |
| | Con | Lab | Lib/LD | NF/BNP | | | | | | | | 1970 | 63.2% | 27.7% | 8.6% | | | 1974 | 56.5% | 24.3% | 18.4% | | | 1974 | 56.0% | 28.2% | 13.8% | 1.2% | | 1979 | 63.3% | 23.8% | 10.6% | 1.3% | | 1983 | 60.1% | 17.4% | 20.1% | | | 1987 | 59.9% | 19.6% | 20.2% | | | 1992 | 62.4% | 21.0% | 14.1% | |
| | Con | Lab | LD | Ref/UKIP/
BXP | Green | | | | | | | | | 1997 | 48.6% | 34.3% | 12.1% | 2.8% | | | 2001 | 47.1% | 32.2% | 15.5% | 1.2% | 3.7% | | 2005 | 48.8% | 23.7% | 20.2% | 1.1% | 4.2% | | 2010 | 52.8% | 23.4% | 19.0% | 1.5% | 1.9% | | 2015 | 55.3% | 27.6% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 4.8% | | 2017 | 47.5% | 38.9% | 10.1% | 0.9% | 2.0% | | 2019 | 40.3% | 28.9% | 28.2% | 0.2% | 1.9% |
1945 is complicated. Obviously the City had two members so I've only counted the top vote for each 'slate' - National in the case of the Conservatives, and i've disregarded the Independent vote as they appear to have run in harness with the Liberal candidate (S.W. Alexander was indeed subsequently a Liberal candidate elsewehre, of the Smedleyite variety). I've included the vote for the Common Wealth candidate in Westminster St George's in the Labour column |
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Post by connor on May 22, 2024 19:53:39 GMT
Could see this turning. A three way battle between Tory/Lib Dem/Labour. I think The Tories might lose this. It's very possible.
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jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 7,053
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Post by jamie on May 22, 2024 19:57:05 GMT
Could see this turning. A three way battle between Tory/Lib Dem/Labour. I think The Tories might lose this. It's very possible. Is there any evidence that the Lib Dem’s are competitive here? Like in Finchley, they didn’t win a single council seat here in 2022. To me 2019 looks like a flash in the pan. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on May 22, 2024 20:01:35 GMT
The Lib Dems de-prioritised it years ago. Knock on doors and you don't meet many. Don't be deceived by one-off exceptions like 2019 which was a product of a blizzard of nationally funded direct mail that isn't happening now.
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Post by batman on May 22, 2024 20:04:07 GMT
Could see this turning. A three way battle between Tory/Lib Dem/Labour. I think The Tories might lose this. It's very possible. it's very impossible that this will be a three-way battle. It's a straight fight between the Labour & Conservative Parties to all intents & purposes. Not as easy a Labour gain as it looks on paper, but I think we will make it |
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Post by connor on May 22, 2024 20:09:33 GMT
It depends also on the campaign. If the tories can make up numbers in opinion polling, then this looks more safe. Anything else and there could be trouble.
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