Scarborough and Whitby

[bungle]

Scarborough and Whitby

Scarborough and Whitby – Whitby and Scarborough - for several generations these names immediately conjure up images of seaside family holidays, days out, boarding houses, cheap beer, the Cricket Festival. Or for a Yorkshire curmudgeon - endless traffic on bank holidays, rain, expensive beer and the Cricket Festival. The sea is an important feature in this seat (it includes pretty all of the current North Yorkshire coastline) but most of it with its shales and sandstones doesn’t lend itself to seaside charm as it does around Filey and Brid. The sea itself doesn’t dominate - only a small fishing industry remains. This is as much a rural moorland seat as it is coastal. But despite all this geographical grandeur, when it comes to people it is in the eponymous two towns where the vast majority of the electorate are located.

It was first established as a constituency in 1918 when the growing imbalance between the number of electors in the urban Scarborough constituency (6,000) compared to the surrounding county seats could no longer be ignored. In fact Scarborough had form as a bit of a rotten borough, having returned two MPs up to 1885 with pitifully few electors. In 1885 the borough of Whitby also lost its seat and Whitby gave its name to what was in effect the ‘North Riding East’ county constituency. This seat completely surrounded Scarborough as an enclave so naturally when it came to redistribution in 1918 Scarborough was simply absorbed with only minor changes elsewhere.

Originally the proposed name of the new county division was ‘Scarborough’ but the Whitby element was added as an amendment during the passage of the relevant legislation. All was fine until 1974 when there was a major break - Whitby was removed and paired to parts of Cleveland. This made sense on one level as Whitby has many links to the west along the A171 to Middlesbrough and beyond (if you visit Whitby on a BH weekend the predominant accent isn’t Yorkshire). In so doing it created a marginal seat which was just about secured by Leon Brittan in both 1974 elections. By 1983 Whitby was reunited with Scarborough (this time minus Pickering) but its flirtation elsewhere meant it was punished by being left out from the name – Scarborough was allowed to continue in sole triumph. In 1997 this calumny was excised when even though no boundary changes were proposed the name ‘Scarborough and Whitby’ was restored.

Scarborough town and its urban fringe areas (which includes the highly contrasting Scalby village and Eastfield estate/Seamer) has an electorate of about 45,000 which represents some 60-65% of the constituency. Scarborough has been synonymous with seaside holidays for nearly two centuries (‘Scarbados’) and unlike many other resorts on the East Coast it has managed to maintain some degree of respectability, coherence and loyalty in its tourist offer although at times this is precarious (as vividly illustrated in the case of the Holbeck Hall Hotel). Both the North and South Bays with the castle high in between offer many opportunities for both holidaymakers and retirees and this trend does not seem to have abated. Traditionally Scarborough could be viewed through the ‘seaside gentility’ lens of petit bourgeois boarding house owners and small shopkeepers (cf Blackpool) who would naturally plump for the Conservatives. Whilst some semblance of this remains and there are some comfortable and respectable residences in the northern end of the town, most of the inner town itself is anything but. Castle ward is one of the most deprived within North Yorkshire and there are deeply engrained issues that reflect this poverty: poor health, average wages and house prices compared to the rest of North Yorkshire. The Eastfield estate, built in waves from the 1950s, continues this theme and even parts of what were once genteel residences off the Ramshill Road are now typical seaside HMOs or tiny studio flats.

As a result, central Scarborough is the motor for the Labour vote, especially at a parliamentary level. At a local level the picture across Scarborough town is complicated by a series of local Independents who can come from very diverse points of view. That said, ward areas which the Conservatives were regularly winning even in the 1990s have now been ceded to others. Whilst the Conservatives are often the largest party on the Borough Council they have often struggled for control and without winning well within the Scarborough urban area they won’t get close; their rural hinterland isn’t enough. The Lib Dems have largely disappeared within Scarborough despite some successes in the 2000s whilst the Greens have recently managed to win two seats in the Falsgrave ward.

Chips play a large part in the Scarborough economy and not just in the multitude of fish and chip shops on the Foreshore. McCains continue to invest and expand their chip factory between Eastfield and Cayton and Plaxton Coachbuilders are another who continue to survive. Scarborough isn’t natural territory for businesses seeking nationwide coverage as the A64 remains a long running sore with its single carriageway for much of the journey from York. Progress is glacial despite the local MP serving three years as Minister for Transport (hasn’t he heard of porkbarrelling?). A new departure for Scarborough is the arrival of the University of Coventry which has recently invested significant amounts into a new campus 'CU Scarborough' which will bring some further changes to the demographics of Scarborough town. The frequency of the railway service to York is being doubled which may attract new people who won’t rely on the town for employment.

Once outside the Scarborough environs the constituency follows the Derwent Valley to the west with its string of pleasant villages which are all reliably Conservative. To the north the landscape changes rapidly to rugged moorland. The civil parish of Fylingdales covers a vast area of moorland as well as the charming seaside village of Robin Hood’s Bay. All reliably Conservative but relatively tiny electorates. One disruption to this rural scene was the establishment in 2015 of the Woodhead Mine shaft just south of Whitby as part of a major extraction of potash which promises thousands of jobs and a 23 mile long tunnel. Progress has recently stalled.

Whitby itself is some 20 miles from Scarborough but has much in common: a coastal destination for day trippers and holiday makers; ancient buildings clinging to a promontory and relatively poor transport links. Whitby has plenty of literary connections and makes much of its Gothic heritage for those who visit. The relative remote location of Whitby means its residential population is quite varied and not prosperous as a whole. This means its politics isn’t fixed. There are some small but comfortable housing estates out west near to Sneaton Castle which makes the new Mayfield ward the most Conservative leaning. West Cliff ward elected one Labour and one Conservative in 2019 while Streonshalh ward covering eastern Whitby elected two Labour councillors.

Beyond Whitby the constituency then proceeds out west into very rural and Conservative territory taking in moorland villages such as Goathland (‘Aidensfield’ from TV’s Heartbeat) Egton, Castleton and Danby. A vast swathe of this western end of the seat around Westerdale is now owned by Carphone Warehouse magnate David Ross who as well as lavishly donating to the Conservative party recently supplied the current prime minster with a much needed post-election holiday.
As a whole it is easy to understand why the seat is naturally Conservative but not unrelentingly so. The slow trend towards Labour was detectable (this is a seat which wasn’t close to tipping in 1966 – Labour were comfortably in third place) but in 1997 Labour’s Lawrie Quinn pulled off a surprise in toppling one term Conservative MP John Sykes on a swing of nearly 15%. He held until 2005 when the Conservatives won by just over 1,000. Labour definitely aren't out of the game here, despite many similar county seats in the north drifting away from them. In 2017 Labour got to within 4,000 and the seat certainly forms part of their pathway to power. If the urban proportion of the electorate continues to grow and demographic changes continue to change the nature of Scarborough town then the chances of Labour returning here will only increase. Current MP Robert Goodwill, a farmer from Terrington near Malton, has faithfully served as a government minister through both Cameron and May administrations. He was sacked in 2018 only to be brought back again in March 2019 by Mrs May as a safe pair of hands for her Brexit woes. This was the black spot and Boris returned him firmly to the backbenches a few months later. It will be interesting to see if he stands again in 2024 when he will be 67.

I shall finish this profile with three topical quiz questions which illustrate some of those quirky elements that naturally have no place in a proper, finalised profile. Of course I fully expect this forum to answer these with ease without resorting to any online aid.

The easy one first – why do half of MPs in search of political death come to Scarborough?

Two Members of Parliament – one for Scarborough and one for Whitby – share the same forename and surname as two of our Prime Ministers. Who are they?

And finally….

There is an obvious parliamentary connection between Scarborough & Brighouse and Spenborough through Michael Shaw (still with us at 99!) – but there is another and how would you come across it today? This is definitely one for anyone who has ever lived in or near Scarborough.

[hullenedge]

Wilf Proudfoot and his supermarket chain. (He had a face lift in his later years).

[Davıd Boothroyd]

For many years the Newby branch of Proudfoots had an odd sign on it "Homes 👉 Gardens".

This was because the sign had been ordered over the phone, by the store manager who had a raspy voice. When he said "Homes and gardens" the signmaker had heard "Homes, hand, gardens". They chose to keep the sign and tell the local paper about the confusion, because it made for a good funny story.

Edit: Here's a picture of it:

[J.G.Harston]

I'd been trying to put together a profile for S&W, but this is a lot better than I've managed so far.
Typo: Woodsmith Mine not Woodhead.
Another quiz question: what's the connection between Scarborough and Cheltenham?

[Crimson King]

I assumed it was Northstead, but took Wiki to discover it was where Peasholme park now is

[bjornhattan]

Apr 28, 2020 9:12:34 GMT @barnabymarder said:

It's very good but it does lack analysis of Whitby's voting patterns. I'm given to understand that there is some Labour support in the town but it comes and goes? (I have been to Whitby, many years ago, but never Scarborough.)

Looking at the past few local elections (the only boundary change in Whitby town seems to be a small area around Highfield Road and Parsons Close switching from Mayfield to West Cliff - this area looks to be a bit more upscale than typical for Whitby, but should only be a few dozen electors so will be negligible):

Mayfield ward is reasonably Conservative, usually by 10% or so, except in 2007 when the Conservative councillors were elected unopposed. On a general election turnout in 2015, Labour came much closer and won one seat, which they then lost in 2019. I would imagine nationally it is Conservative by a narrow margin, with Labour able to win here if they win across the constituency.

West Cliff has traditionally been the safest Conservative ward, with Labour often not contesting the seat, and being 10% behind even with general election turnout. However, in 2019 Labour were able to win a seat here - while they only nominated one candidate, she was able to top the poll. One of the incumbent Conservative councillors had stepped down, so that might have helped? It's also the most cosmopolitan and middle-class of the three Whitby wards, though to be honest that isn't saying very much (just 5% of its population are immigrants, but this is nearly twice the proportion in the other two wards, for instance), and so that won't have had an effect. Nationally this is probably the safest of the three for the Conservatives, but not out of reach for Labour (they might not win it if they barely win the constituency, but if the margin was 1997/2001 levels, it should fall). As an aside, the ward had a forum candidate in 2019, and he was only 120 votes off (albeit in a very crowded field)!

Streonshalh is the least Conservative of the three wards, which fits with its demographics (having a significantly younger age profile than the other two wards, and being dominated by slightly grim semi-detached housing). The Lib Dems used to win it handily at a local level, but didn't stand candidates in 2011, with the seat falling to the Conservatives, though not by a huge margin over Labour. In 2015, one of Labour's candidates won comfortably, while the other was beaten by both the Conservative and UKIP candidate. In 2019, Labour built on this more effectively than in Mayfield, and won both councillors - UKIP even beat one of the Conservative candidates. At a national level I would imagine Labour consistently win it in general elections, though it will have been close in 2019.

Local elections in Whitby do have a strong personal vote effect, and I'm sure those who know the town better will have a better handle on the ins-and-outs of this. But looking at overall trends, Streonshalh seems to be a Labour-leaning marginal, with the other two Conservative-leaning marginals. The town as a whole would seem to be a good bellwether for the constituency, being neither as Labour inclined as Scarborough nor as Conservative as the rural parts of the seat.

[bungle]

Apr 28, 2020 9:42:15 GMT bjornhattan said:

Apr 28, 2020 9:12:34 GMT @barnabymarder said:

It's very good but it does lack analysis of Whitby's voting patterns. I'm given to understand that there is some Labour support in the town but it comes and goes? (I have been to Whitby, many years ago, but never Scarborough.)

Looking at the past few local elections (the only boundary change in Whitby town seems to be a small area around Highfield Road and Parsons Close switching from Mayfield to West Cliff - this area looks to be a bit more upscale than typical for Whitby, but should only be a few dozen electors so will be negligible):

Mayfield ward is reasonably Conservative, usually by 10% or so, except in 2007 when the Conservative councillors were elected unopposed. On a general election turnout in 2015, Labour came much closer and won one seat, which they then lost in 2019. I would imagine nationally it is Conservative by a narrow margin, with Labour able to win here if they win across the constituency.

West Cliff has traditionally been the safest Conservative ward, with Labour often not contesting the seat, and being 10% behind even with general election turnout. However, in 2019 Labour were able to win a seat here - while they only nominated one candidate, she was able to top the poll. One of the incumbent Conservative councillors had stepped down, so that might have helped? It's also the most cosmopolitan and middle-class of the three Whitby wards, though to be honest that isn't saying very much (just 5% of its population are immigrants, but this is nearly twice the proportion in the other two wards, for instance), and so that won't have had an effect. Nationally this is probably the safest of the three for the Conservatives, but not out of reach for Labour (they might not win it if they barely win the constituency, but if the margin was 1997/2001 levels, it should fall). As an aside, the ward had a forum candidate in 2019, and he was only 120 votes off (albeit in a very crowded field)!

Streonshalh is the least Conservative of the three wards, which fits with its demographics (having a significantly younger age profile than the other two wards, and being dominated by slightly grim semi-detached housing). The Lib Dems used to win it handily at a local level, but didn't stand candidates in 2011, with the seat falling to the Conservatives, though not by a huge margin over Labour. In 2015, one of Labour's candidates won comfortably, while the other was beaten by both the Conservative and UKIP candidate. In 2019, Labour built on this more effectively than in Mayfield, and won both councillors - UKIP even beat one of the Conservative candidates. At a national level I would imagine Labour consistently win it in general elections, though it will have been close in 2019.

Local elections in Whitby do have a strong personal vote effect, and I'm sure those who know the town better will have a better handle on the ins-and-outs of this. But looking at overall trends, Streonshalh seems to be a Labour-leaning marginal, with the other two Conservative-leaning marginals. The town as a whole would seem to be a good bellwether for the constituency, being neither as Labour inclined as Scarborough nor as Conservative as the rural parts of the seat.

Delighted to see this addition to the analysis. It is very good, especially the summary in the last paragraph. If I had included this level of detail in the profile it would have become even longer. Judging by the grumbles on the main Almanac thread about too much election result narrative crowding out descriptions of geography, housing types, industry etc and why people vote the way they do it is hard to please everyone and keep within a reasonable length. As noted on that same thread, there is a natural degree of inconsistency between profile content as we evolve over time, even including those written by our self-appointed homework marker in chief.

One reason I didn't really delve into the past local election results but used the 2019 locals as a bit of proxy shorthand is that, for once, it produced results that I consider to reflect the basic underlying picture. Usually the local election lodestar in Whitby is just not that helpful in describing parliamentary trends. As in Scarborough there is a real mix of personal votes and independents getting in the way. For example, when Whitby had two three member wards (Mayfield and Streonshalh) the results were often somewhat muddy with limited 'down the ticket' voting. To compound that, it was rare that the main parties fielded a maximum slate and sometimes there were 4 or 5 Independents chasing the 3 seats.

So, as an example to show the bizarre outcomes, just look at Mayfield even further back. In 1991 those elected unopposed were Ind, Con and LD. In 1995 (Labour's great year) Mayfield ended up being Ind, Con and Lab elected in that order which was then repeated in 1999. The new Mayfield was marginal in 2003, uncontested in 2007 and leaning Tory in 2011. It didn't throw up a Labour win until 2015 on a parliamentary turnout when Jane Kenyon's luck finally ran out (there were plenty of local reasons why her personal vote crumbled, including appearances in Rotten Boroughs). New housing in the ward which is mainly on the ex-priory land around Sneaton Castle (Chancel Way, Convent Way etc) is definitely of the type that will attract Conservative inclined voters who will actually vote in local elections (unlike the more Labour inclined streets in Castle Park) so this may help the Tories consolidate here at a local level. But I agree - if Labour are winning across Mayfield ward at a parliamentary level they will be pushing hard within the constituency as a whole. Bellwether feels tentatively appropriate.

Describing West Cliff as cosmopolitan did make me laugh. I often walk down Crescent Avenue where 'colour TV in every room' is still seen as an incentive to stay at one of the many boarding houses. Yes your hunch was right - a change in personnel for the Conservatives did impact here in 2019. Joe Plant stood down after 16 years and he had consistently topped the poll in every election in West Cliff, including in 2003 and 07 when his Tory running mate lost out. Some change is happening here in terms of who lives and votes here - fewer retirees, more single people, HMOs or small flats closer into the town centre. It will be interesting to see how that trickles into local election results in the next few years. J.G.Harston can add in much more and it would be good to hear from him on this. 

In Streonshalh there is an equally mixed picture but agree it is the least Conservative-inclined ward. In the old 3 seat ward it elected a full slate of independents in 1983, 87 and 91. Dorothy Clegg was a perennial winner as an Independent although in her last election in 2011 she stood as a Tory and won (also alongside another Tory running mate who was first elected as an Independent in a 2009 by-election - I said the local picture was muddy!) Labour were usually the strongest challengers in the 1980s/90s and won 2 x seats in 1995 and 99. The Lib Dems popped up in the 2000s but faded away and now it is largely back to Labour.

At a county level a curious picture emerges. The Whitby/Streonshalh division is a combination of most of West Cliff ward and Streonshalh. It went heavily Lib Dem in 2005; the said Joe Plant gained it in 2009; in 2013 Labour emerged as the challengers but failed to take it by 67 votes (their candidate was a former Chair of Labour's NEC, Diana Jeuda). Surprisingly Labour actually improved their position in their disaster year of 2017 and went down by less than 2%. Is this a hint that West Cliff is losing its safer Tory status? I shall await 2021 with interest - I sense Labour should be in a strong position to win a county division in Whitby for the first time since 1997. 

[bungle]

Apr 27, 2020 20:42:18 GMT hullenedge said:

Wilf Proudfoot and his supermarket chain. (He had a face lift in his later years).

Well done for getting in first. I knew Davıd Boothroyd would get it in a trice.

The Wilf Proudfoot stories are quite something. A friend of mine was his solicitor in his later years and from what he could share he had clearly not lost any of his zest for a 'get rich quick' scheme. For those who haven't come across him then he is worth checking out. Definitely not your typical 'knight of the shires' Tory. More in tune with the 'entrepreneur' culture which came later.

Glad to see the Newby store is still going strong. I'll have to go in and ask about the sign!

[hullenedge]

Apr 28, 2020 13:22:54 GMT bungle said:

Apr 27, 2020 20:42:18 GMT hullenedge said:

Wilf Proudfoot and his supermarket chain. (He had a face lift in his later years).

Well done for getting in first. I knew Davıd Boothroyd would get it in a trice.

The Wilf Proudfoot stories are quite something. A friend of mine was his solicitor in his later years and from what he could share he had clearly not lost any of his zest for a 'get rich quick' scheme. For those who haven't come across him then he is worth checking out. Definitely not your typical 'knight of the shires' Tory. More in tune with the 'entrepreneur' culture which came later.

Glad to see the Newby store is still going strong. I'll have to go in and ask about the sign!

A tribute to Wilf Proudfoot:-

www.offshoreradio.co.uk/wilfp.htm

Perhaps he did owe his 1970 victory in Brighouse & Spenborough to pirate radio.

A good chap for campaigning to abolish retail price maintenance.

[finsobruce]

Apr 28, 2020 16:22:03 GMT hullenedge said:

Apr 28, 2020 13:22:54 GMT bungle said:

Well done for getting in first. I knew Davıd Boothroyd would get it in a trice.

The Wilf Proudfoot stories are quite something. A friend of mine was his solicitor in his later years and from what he could share he had clearly not lost any of his zest for a 'get rich quick' scheme. For those who haven't come across him then he is worth checking out. Definitely not your typical 'knight of the shires' Tory. More in tune with the 'entrepreneur' culture which came later.

Glad to see the Newby store is still going strong. I'll have to go in and ask about the sign!

A tribute to Wilf Proudfoot:-

www.offshoreradio.co.uk/wilfp.htm

Perhaps he did owe his 1970 victory in Brighouse & Spenborough to pirate radio.

A good chap for campaigning to abolish retail price maintenance.

And to introduce Decimal Currency!

I note that the pirate station had been started by Don Robinson, who went on to fund Scarborough's rise to league football, before moving to take over Hull City. He also ran Flamingoland iirc. 

[Robert Waller]

2011 Census

Owner-occupied 64.8% 387/650
Private rented 20.1% 122/650
Social rented 12.8% 448/650
White 97.3% 192/650
Black 0.2% 497/650
Asian 1.4% 432/650
Managerial & professional 25.5%
Routine & Semi-routine 30.3%
Accommodation and food service activities 12.1% 4/650
Degree level 23.0% 397/650
No qualifications 25.4% 234/650
Students 7.0% 292/650
Age 65+ 22.4% 45/650

2021 Census

Owner occupied 63.5% 340/573
Private rented 22.3% 156/573
Social rented 14.2% 326/573
White 96.8%
Black 0.3%
Asian 1.4%
Managerial & professional 27.2% 437/573
Routine & Semi-routine 29.1% 115/573
Degree level 27.9% 396/573
No qualifications 20.2% 185/573





General Election 2019: Scarborough and Whitby

Party Candidate Votes % ±%

Conservative Robert Goodwill 27,593 55.5 +7.1
Labour Hugo Fearnley 17,323 34.8 -6.8
Liberal Democrats Robert Lockwood 3,038 6.1 +3.4
Yorkshire Lee Derrick 1,770 3.6 +2.9

C Majority 10,270 20.7 +13.9

Turnout 49,724 66.8 -1.8

Conservative hold

Swing 6.9 Lab to C

[YL]

This is one of only two constituencies in Yorkshire (the other being Bradford West) which the Boundary Commission propose leaving entirely unchanged, although the mapping on their website shows a handful of small areas being exchanged with the North Sea.