Cities of London and Westminster

[Deleted]

Jul 7, 2024 9:34:30 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Not sorry to advertise my own Twitter thread but I had to say it.

And a parachute candidate, billed as a 'mystery man' at the 2019 Lib Dem conference by Britain's 'next Prime Minister'. The Lib Dems couldn't even win Marylebone in 2022 so, like Finchley & Golders Green, and Chelsea & Fulham, this was always a straight Labour - Tory fight. Well done you.

[Pete Whitehead]

2025 probably too early for the Tories though, and considering they're defending from their last set of strong local elections then. Hopefully Reform will be able to capitalise a bit in some areas though..

[Deleted]

Jul 7, 2024 9:56:33 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

2025 probably too early for the Tories though, and considering they're defending from their last set of strong local elections then. Hopefully Reform will be able to capitalise a bit in some areas though..

2025 I think the Tories are vulnerable in the counties, with NOC likely in Hertfordshire, Surrey and West Sussex. Buckinghamshire isn't bomb-proof either. Back to this seat, I think Labour take 10 in the City of London next year, dominating the Barbican, and taking seats in Castle Baynard, Farringdon Within and Farringdon Without. 

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Election Expenses returned:

BARNES, Tim (The Conservative Party Candidate) - £14,321.15
BLAKE, Rachel Nancy (Labour and Co-operative Party) - £13,158.00
BURFORD, Liz (Rejoin EU) - nil
CARR, Mathew Nigel (Independent) - nil
DE BURGH, Huge (Social Democratic Party) - £1,672
GENERIC, John (Independent) - £2,868.10
GHULATI, Tarun (Reform UK) - £9,033.92
HALLETT, Tim (Independent) - no return
LUCAS, Edward (Liberal Democrat) - £15,781.64
SHAFIEI, Hoz (Workers Party – For Britain, For Gaza) - nil
SINHA, Rajiv Rahul (Green Party) - £625

[Sibboleth]

Is this available for all constituencies yet?

[Tony Otim]

The Lib Dems really outspent everyone here in order to lose 60% of their vote?

[LDCaerdydd]

Sept 18, 2024 14:06:18 GMT Tony Otim said:

The Lib Dems really outspent everyone here in order to lose 60% of their vote?

Not sure it was the party, probably more the individual.

The seat was officially dropped as a target seat a long while back.

Most sensible Lib Dems would have argued that it shouldn't have even been in contention.

[iain]

Totally unsurprising. A local party short on common sense but not short on cash.

[Merseymike]

I suppose there was a decent volume of money, I'd imagine the area has some well off LibDems. Actually, it was obvious that Labour could win, even though the LibDem is well known and could be a LibDem MP. But it was about Labour defeating the Tories.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Sept 18, 2024 13:12:34 GMT Sibboleth said:

Is this available for all constituencies yet?

Yes, but you have to make an appointment with Electoral Services for the respective constituency.

It will eventually be published by the Electoral Commission (though at the last election there were multiple constituencies missing).

[sanders]

Sept 18, 2024 14:06:18 GMT Tony Otim said:

The Lib Dems really outspent everyone here in order to lose 60% of their vote?

Maybe they'll win Marylebone in 2026 (they did pretty well there in 2022) but I agree it's a huge waste of money. 

[batman]

Sept 18, 2024 14:24:22 GMT LDCaerdydd said:

Sept 18, 2024 14:06:18 GMT Tony Otim said:

The Lib Dems really outspent everyone here in order to lose 60% of their vote?

Not sure it was the party, probably more the individual.

The seat was officially dropped as a target seat a long while back.

Most sensible Lib Dems would have argued that it shouldn't have even been in contention.

surely at least the local party would have assented to this. It does seem to be a case however of the candidate getting carried away. It isn't the first time it's happened & it won't be the last, and that applies to all sorts of parties.

[batman]

As sanders says, Marylebone is their big target & they'd be well advised to concentrate heavily on that. They don't have Labour targetting it to get in their way & there are no other wards which are realistic prospects.

[LDCaerdydd]

Sept 18, 2024 16:51:17 GMT batman said:

Sept 18, 2024 14:24:22 GMT LDCaerdydd said:

Not sure it was the party, probably more the individual.

The seat was officially dropped as a target seat a long while back.

Most sensible Lib Dems would have argued that it shouldn't have even been in contention.

surely at least the local party would have assented to this. It does seem to be a case however of the candidate getting carried away. It isn't the first time it's happened & it won't be the last, and that applies to all sorts of parties.

It might have been the candidates own money
It might be money he raised for his campaign
It might have been sat in the LP account
It may have been a mixture of all three

The point I was attempting making was it was local party money not national money. The candidate in question was certainly a tad eccentric and has a very high opinion of himself, but equally was very well positioned to raise cash.

You’re quite right that there are numerous examples of all parties where this has happened.

[sonofkrautrock]

Was this the worst Lib Dem result in the country?

The candidate was by all accounts a disaster, as the 2022 locals showed.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Sept 18, 2024 17:25:05 GMT sonofkrautrock said:

Was this the worst Lib Dem result in the country?

The candidate was by all accounts a disaster, as the 2022 locals showed.

Finchley and Golders Green was the only seat where the Lib Dem vote dropped by more.

[sanders]

I wonder if Labour carried everything in the City of London. I think they over-nominated last time in the Farringdon wards and could stand to nominate more candidates in the Barbican wards (Aldersgate and Cripplegate). They ought to be able to win something in Queenhithe or Castle Baynard too. I may get involved in the City elections. Farringdon Within is winnable if Labour carries Amen Corner I think. The St Paul's canon vote will be key to the result there, along with Labour only nominating one candidate instead of two (they're lead candidate lost by 13 votes in 2022). 

[Pete Whitehead]

The Lib Dem results here and in Finchley were superficially the 'worst' on the basis of their decline in vote share since 2019 but we all know there were unique circusmtances at play then and it was widely expected that their vote would evaporate at this election in the absence of those factors. Remember that the Lib Dems have no councillors in either constituency and did not at the time of the 2019 election (and haven't ever been really close in any of the wards in this seat (they were competitive in Churchill in the dim and distant past)). I would submit that their worst result based on their long term potential and local government strength was Harborough, Oadby & Wigston - less than 10% in a seat where they have for a long time held the large majority of local councillors.

[batman]

and indeed some even predicted they could win that seat. The LDs do have strength in Marylebone ward here, but nowhere else.

[The Bishop]

Sept 19, 2024 7:32:53 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

The Lib Dem results here and in Finchley were superficially the 'worst' on the basis of their decline in vote share since 2019 but we all know there were unique circusmtances at play then and it was widely expected that their vote would evaporate at this election in the absence of those factors. Remember that the Lib Dems have no councillors in either constituency and did not at the time of the 2019 election (and haven't ever been really close in any of the wards in this seat (they were competitive in Churchill in the dim and distant past)). I would submit that their worst result based on their long term potential and local government strength was Harborough, Oadby & Wigston - less than 10% in a seat where they have for a long time held the large majority of local councillors.

It was, but nobody told those doing the GE exit poll.