birkinabe
Non-Aligned
winning here
Posts: 155
|
Post by birkinabe on Jun 14, 2024 12:07:16 GMT
I suspect that in West Norfolk - and even more so SW Norfolk - the Tories will have won the PCC vote Based on district-level results, this is correct - Labour only won Great Yarmouth and Norwich, and otherwise came closest in South Norfolk rather than anywhere in the west of the county. In any case, as you imply, other constituencies there will have been better for Labour than this one.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jun 14, 2024 12:19:19 GMT
What does Faiza Shaheen have to do with this seat? Lol. Just that yesterday her prospects were being ramped to an absurd degree by one or two posters - an Independent candidate with no history of holding elected office within the constituency in question. There are obvious parallels to the situation here, though it is a less clear to me (because I know and fathom this kind of area less) that this Independent will be as irrelevant to the result as she will be Fair point taken, although playing devil's advocate, a defenestrated former flag-bearer and poster girl for Muslim voters (loads in Chingford & Woodford Green) is not the same electorally as some (probable) yokel who miraculously scrapes together £500 for a deposit. Shaheen has a very (angry) ceiling in the seat, IMO.
|
|
|
Post by matureleft on Jun 14, 2024 12:21:12 GMT
I doubt many people these days even know who Martin Bell is (those old enough to remember him* will largely have forgotten him anyway). There's a rather crucial difference here in that Bell was endorsed by both Labour and Lib Dem parties who did not field candidates in Tatton in 1997. This individual may have a bit of a local profile but Its likely overstated. He may do better than Faiza Shaheen does in Chingford.. * and a good number of us who are in that catergory will just remember him as a sanctimonious bore.Sadly very true, whatever his personal merits might have been...
|
|
|
Post by carlton43 on Jun 14, 2024 12:21:39 GMT
Labour did win the Norfolk PCC vote (and with FPTP too), so I guess the anti-Tory voters smelt blood in the water. 'In Liz we Truss' is now 'Liz is not my Bag(ge)'. The one place one cannot smell blood is when it is in water, unless you are a fish?
|
|
|
Post by carlton43 on Jun 14, 2024 12:24:50 GMT
(He turns up in a lot of financial regulation and Anti-Money laundering cases. He's quite well-respected in his field) Whereas Liz Truss is disrespected in fields. Not at all. The fields love her and have boards to evidence it. Her problems lie in the lack of support by electors!
|
|
right
Conservative
Posts: 18,802
|
Post by right on Jun 14, 2024 12:40:07 GMT
Just that yesterday her prospects were being ramped to an absurd degree by one or two posters - an Independent candidate with no history of holding elected office within the constituency in question. There are obvious parallels to the situation here, though it is a less clear to me (because I know and fathom this kind of area less) that this Independent will be as irrelevant to the result as she will be Fair point taken, although playing devil's advocate, a defenestrated former flag-bearer and poster girl for Muslim voters (loads in Chingford & Woodford Green) is not the same electorally as some (probable) yokel who miraculously scrapes together £500 for a deposit. Shaheen has a very (angry) ceiling in the seat, IMO. He ain't a yokel. There really wouldn't be the interest in this contest that there is if he was.
|
|
|
Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jun 14, 2024 13:20:12 GMT
I doubt many people these days even know who Martin Bell is (those old enough to remember him* will largely have forgotten him anyway). There's a rather crucial difference here in that Bell was endorsed by both Labour and Lib Dem parties who did not field candidates in Tatton in 1997. This individual may have a bit of a local profile but Its likely overstated. He may do better than Faiza Shaheen does in Chingford.. * and a good number of us who are in that catergory will just remember him as a sanctimonious bore. There's the perennial point that well-known and popular aren't the same thing. Anyone who does the Mr Local act is bound to have made plenty of enemies, or just irritates lots of people.
|
|
|
Post by johnloony on Jun 14, 2024 14:57:43 GMT
I doubt many people these days even know who Martin Bell is (those old enough to remember him* will largely have forgotten him anyway). There's a rather crucial difference here in that Bell was endorsed by both Labour and Lib Dem parties who did not field candidates in Tatton in 1997. This individual may have a bit of a local profile but Its likely overstated. He may do better than Faiza Shaheen does in Chingford.. * and a good number of us who are in that catergory will just remember him as a sanctimonious bore. At the Tatton declaration in 1997 Martin Bell quoted G.K. Chesterton: “Smile at us, pay us, pass us, but do not quite forget: For we are the people of England, and we have not spoken yet.” That is a quotation from the poem “The Secret People” which I learnt by memory a few years ago. It is a long (60 lines) poem about an English peasant who sits in a pub, drinking beer, and watching the world go by for a thousand years, while a succession of different rulers, invaders, and elite ruling classes come and go, all the time ignoring the ordinary people. It is the quintessential spirit of the type of resentment and alienation which fuels insurgent populist parties and movements. It wasn’t until I read and learned the poem that I realised how pompous Martin Bell must have been to quote it in the first place.
|
|
|
Post by iainbhx on Jun 14, 2024 15:19:01 GMT
* and a good number of us who are in that catergory will just remember him as a sanctimonious bore. At least Mostyn Neil Hamilton was vaguely entertaining.
|
|
|
Post by AlltheGoodUsernamesAreTaken on Jun 15, 2024 6:33:55 GMT
So I actually got a bit of direct reportage that I can pass on. A friend has been driving through the constituency and reported that she has seen lots of Truss posters - and none for any other candidates. There are a couple of caveats, she's a staunch Tory but she has reported bad electoral news in other constituencies, and this may be what's shown on the main roads with farmers fields but that may not be the situation in the towns and bigger bypassed villages. I remember going through the countryside around Bath in the run up to the 1992 elections and it seemed like Patten was out postering the Foster (although there were certainly Lib Dem posters out). But as it's contrary to the emerging narrative here I thought it would be useful to include it. A handful of land owning farmer with a few dozen fields can make it seem there are huge numbers of Truss supporters when they place boards in their fields. There are plenty of Bagge boards - but perhaps his supporters don't own the fields next to the main roads! I hope truss losses but there is a large rump of Conservative voters who have not been impacted by the cost of living crisis and will go out and vote Truss regardless. I think Truss will get in with a much reduced majority.
|
|
|
Post by heslingtonian on Jun 15, 2024 7:16:23 GMT
My Conservative source who has been campaigning in this constituency (I suppose we all have our crosses to bear) reckons Truss will win.
|
|
right
Conservative
Posts: 18,802
|
Post by right on Jun 15, 2024 7:34:51 GMT
My Conservative source who has been campaigning in this constituency (I suppose we all have our crosses to bear) reckons Truss will win. I remember in 97 thinking that there were a few marginal seats we'd win based on canvassing, and they fell like nine pins on the night. It was only later I realised that my overconfidence was because at the very least we were missing out confirmed Labour supporters and so skewing my sample. I say this as anyone who has spent most of their political life in that constituency, it may be that it's the first time they're seriously working it. Although the fact that they're seriously working it will be good for Truss.
|
|
right
Conservative
Posts: 18,802
|
Post by right on Jun 15, 2024 7:39:21 GMT
So I actually got a bit of direct reportage that I can pass on. A friend has been driving through the constituency and reported that she has seen lots of Truss posters - and none for any other candidates. There are a couple of caveats, she's a staunch Tory but she has reported bad electoral news in other constituencies, and this may be what's shown on the main roads with farmers fields but that may not be the situation in the towns and bigger bypassed villages. I remember going through the countryside around Bath in the run up to the 1992 elections and it seemed like Patten was out postering the Foster (although there were certainly Lib Dem posters out). But as it's contrary to the emerging narrative here I thought it would be useful to include it. A handful of land owning farmer with a few dozen fields can make it seem there are huge numbers of Truss supporters when they place boards in their fields. There are plenty of Bagge boards - but perhaps his supporters don't own the fields next to the main roads! I hope truss losses but there is a large rump of Conservative voters who have not been impacted by the cost of living crisis and will go out and vote Truss regardless. I think Truss will get in with a much reduced majority. The Bagges are long time landowners in the area, in fact that's what James Bagge's political platform boils down to once you remove "isn't Truss an awfully pushy middle class type". They not only own a fair few fields, they will be mates from generations back with others who own fields.
|
|
cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,142
|
Post by cogload on Jun 15, 2024 9:58:41 GMT
|
|
|
Post by carlton43 on Jun 15, 2024 11:50:21 GMT
That article is excruciatingly poorly written and not very useful either.
|
|
|
Post by eastmidlandsright on Jun 15, 2024 18:27:00 GMT
Where's Bagge's money coming from? This is the dumbest post I have read in my 20 months on this forum. The idea that James needs people to fund his campaign is simply absurd. Do the decent thing and delete your account, the forum gains nothing from your nonsense.
|
|
right
Conservative
Posts: 18,802
|
Post by right on Jun 15, 2024 22:23:50 GMT
Where's Bagge's money coming from? This is the dumbest post I have read in my 20 months on this forum. The idea that James needs people to fund his campaign is simply absurd. Do the decent thing and delete your account, the forum gains nothing from your nonsense. Yeah a lawyer from a farming family, two professional groups well known for not wanting other people to pay their bills
|
|
|
Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Jun 16, 2024 7:12:51 GMT
Where's Bagge's money coming from? This is the dumbest post I have read in my 20 months on this forum. The idea that James needs people to fund his campaign is simply absurd. Do the decent thing and delete your account, the forum gains nothing from your nonsense. Before this election, I'd never heard of Bagge, let alone know his wealth, I've only picked up that he might not be poor by reading one or two posts. Cut people some slack they might have missed said posts.
|
|
|
Post by heslingtonian on Jun 16, 2024 7:17:05 GMT
I notice David Gauke and Rory Stewart have endorsed Bagge in a couple of videos.
|
|
|
Post by finsobruce on Jun 16, 2024 7:46:38 GMT
I notice David Gauke and Rory Stewart have endorsed Bagge in a couple of videos. I'm not sure that'll make a great deal of difference tbh.
|
|