right
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Posts: 18,800
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Post by right on Jun 14, 2024 8:13:13 GMT
Where's Bagge's money coming from?
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Post by batman on Jun 14, 2024 8:48:11 GMT
Money bagges
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bsjmcr
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Post by bsjmcr on Jun 14, 2024 9:04:52 GMT
Don’t give Liz, with her humble Roundhay, Leeds, Yorkshire and Paisley and now Norfolk origins, any ideas. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jun 14, 2024 9:11:58 GMT
Where's Bagge's money coming from? He's a very successful lawyer. (He turns up in a lot of financial regulation and Anti-Money laundering cases. He's quite well-respected in his field) |
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Post by hullenedge on Jun 14, 2024 9:30:25 GMT
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Jun 14, 2024 9:34:43 GMT
Perhaps she's trying to lose? That's a semi serious question by the way. There's nothing in the Commons for her now, by losing she'll get the payments for losing and she'll continue her new Trumpian media tour.
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right
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Post by right on Jun 14, 2024 9:42:02 GMT
Where's Bagge's money coming from? He's a very successful lawyer. (He turns up in a lot of financial regulation and Anti-Money laundering cases. He's quite well-respected in his field) Could be. Trying to wade through the Electoral Commission website to find this as I suspect there's some juicy blue on blue action here. |
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right
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Post by right on Jun 14, 2024 9:43:23 GMT
Perhaps she's trying to lose? That's a semi serious question by the way. There's nothing in the Commons for her now, by losing she'll get the payments for losing and she'll continue her new Trumpian media tour. She'll still do the Trumpian media tours if she wins and she'll retain relevance by staying in the Commons. It would be a media moment if she was defeated. She's the most prominent market forces proponent in the Commons and I don't think she wants to lose that - particularly with Rees Mogg likely to be defeated and Kwarteng stepping down |
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Jun 14, 2024 9:53:07 GMT
Perhaps she's trying to lose? That's a semi serious question by the way. There's nothing in the Commons for her now, by losing she'll get the payments for losing and she'll continue her new Trumpian media tour. She'll still do the Trumpian media tours if she wins and she'll retain relevance by staying in the Commons. It would be a media moment if she was defeated. She's the most prominent market forces proponent in the Commons and I don't think she wants to lose that - particularly with Rees Mogg likely to be defeated and Kwarteng stepping down If you're right, then she needs to actually fight for her seat because she could well lose, with Labour, Reform and Bagge all having the potential to run away with large chunks of the Tory vote each. I get that she isn't exactly popular, and her constant presence may be disadvantageous to her position, but she does have to do some work as this radio silence is more damaging. It makes her look like she doesn't care, or, as I queried, whether she even wants to win. |
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right
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Post by right on Jun 14, 2024 10:16:11 GMT
She'll still do the Trumpian media tours if she wins and she'll retain relevance by staying in the Commons. It would be a media moment if she was defeated. She's the most prominent market forces proponent in the Commons and I don't think she wants to lose that - particularly with Rees Mogg likely to be defeated and Kwarteng stepping down If you're right, then she needs to actually fight for her seat because she could well lose, with Labour, Reform and Bagge all having the potential to run away with large chunks of the Tory vote each. I get that she isn't exactly popular, and her constant presence may be disadvantageous to her position, but she does have to do some work as this radio silence is more damaging. It makes her look like she doesn't care, or, as I queried, whether she even wants to win. I think the radio silence is overdone. A number of the reports I've read on Bagge comment on how she's mysteriously back in the constituency a lot more. No doubt it's cack handed and can lead to stories such as the one linked above, but my sense is that she's upped her presence. I never really paid attention to her before but I did notice that in the early 2010s she was hitting the news (in my case rather far away from her) for local campaigns such as the attempt to stop the RAF base going to Scotland. Which surprised me when a couple of years ago I suddenly heard moans about her not being around - which seems a mostly post 2015 phenomena. Obviously these have been amplified by the Bagge campaign. As to Labour, Reform and Bagge all being able to get chunks of her vote - that's not really what she needs to worry about. It's Bagge getting almost all of those switching votes as well as consolidating the opposition vote. |
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right
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Post by right on Jun 14, 2024 10:38:47 GMT
So I actually got a bit of direct reportage that I can pass on.
A friend has been driving through the constituency and reported that she has seen lots of Truss posters - and none for any other candidates.
There are a couple of caveats, she's a staunch Tory but she has reported bad electoral news in other constituencies, and this may be what's shown on the main roads with farmers fields but that may not be the situation in the towns and bigger bypassed villages. I remember going through the countryside around Bath in the run up to the 1992 elections and it seemed like Patten was out postering the Foster (although there were certainly Lib Dem posters out).
But as it's contrary to the emerging narrative here I thought it would be useful to include it.
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Post by Strontium Dog on Jun 14, 2024 11:15:39 GMT
(He turns up in a lot of financial regulation and Anti-Money laundering cases. He's quite well-respected in his field) Whereas Liz Truss is disrespected in fields. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 14, 2024 11:36:38 GMT
If you're right, then she needs to actually fight for her seat because she could well lose, with Labour, Reform and Bagge all having the potential to run away with large chunks of the Tory vote each. I get that she isn't exactly popular, and her constant presence may be disadvantageous to her position, but she does have to do some work as this radio silence is more damaging. It makes her look like she doesn't care, or, as I queried, whether she even wants to win. I think the radio silence is overdone. A number of the reports I've read on Bagge comment on how she's mysteriously back in the constituency a lot more. No doubt it's cack handed and can lead to stories such as the one linked above, but my sense is that she's upped her presence. I never really paid attention to her before but I did notice that in the early 2010s she was hitting the news (in my case rather far away from her) for local campaigns such as the attempt to stop the RAF base going to Scotland. Which surprised me when a couple of years ago I suddenly heard moans about her not being around - which seems a mostly post 2015 phenomena. Obviously these have been amplified by the Bagge campaign. As to Labour, Reform and Bagge all being able to get chunks of her vote - that's not really what she needs to worry about. It's Bagge getting almost all of those switching votes as well as consolidating the opposition vote. Why on earth would he? |
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right
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Post by right on Jun 14, 2024 11:41:01 GMT
I think the radio silence is overdone. A number of the reports I've read on Bagge comment on how she's mysteriously back in the constituency a lot more. No doubt it's cack handed and can lead to stories such as the one linked above, but my sense is that she's upped her presence. I never really paid attention to her before but I did notice that in the early 2010s she was hitting the news (in my case rather far away from her) for local campaigns such as the attempt to stop the RAF base going to Scotland. Which surprised me when a couple of years ago I suddenly heard moans about her not being around - which seems a mostly post 2015 phenomena. Obviously these have been amplified by the Bagge campaign. As to Labour, Reform and Bagge all being able to get chunks of her vote - that's not really what she needs to worry about. It's Bagge getting almost all of those switching votes as well as consolidating the opposition vote. Why on earth would he? For the same reason Martin Bell did in Tatton. If you live in a safe seat that's been one party for ever the temptation to switch to anyone who looks like they could win is very real. Edit: Bell came out to support Bagge, so he also sees the parrallels: www.edp24.co.uk/news/24330840.martin-bell-support-james-bagge-bid-oust-liz-truss/ |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 14, 2024 11:41:03 GMT
Labour did win the Norfolk PCC vote (and with FPTP too), so I guess the anti-Tory voters smelt blood in the water.
'In Liz we Truss' is now 'Liz is not my Bag(ge)'.
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right
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Post by right on Jun 14, 2024 11:45:10 GMT
Labour did win the Norfolk PCC vote (and with FPTP too), so I guess the anti-Tory voters smelt blood in the water. 'In Liz we Truss' is now 'Liz is not my Bag(ge)'. Consolidating to Labour is a different proposition to consolidating to a new candidate - both advantages and disadvantages I suspect that in West Norfolk - and even more so SW Norfolk - the Tories will have won the PCC vote Interesting if that's not the case |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 14, 2024 11:51:09 GMT
I doubt many people these days even know who Martin Bell is (those old enough to remember him* will largely have forgotten him anyway). There's a rather crucial difference here in that Bell was endorsed by both Labour and Lib Dem parties who did not field candidates in Tatton in 1997. This individual may have a bit of a local profile but Its likely overstated. He may do better than Faiza Shaheen does in Chingford.. * and a good number of us who are in that catergory will just remember him as a sanctimonious bore. |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 14, 2024 11:54:36 GMT
I doubt many people these days even know who Martin Bell is (those old enough to remember him* will largely have forgotten him anyway). There's a rather crucial difference here in that Bell was endorsed by both Labour and Lib Dem parties who did not field candidates in Tatton in 1997. This individual may have a bit of a local profile but Its likely overstated. He may do better than Faiza Shaheen does in Chingford.. * and a good number of us who are in that catergory will just remember him as a sanctimonious bore. What does Faiza Shaheen have to do with this seat? Lol. |
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right
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Post by right on Jun 14, 2024 11:57:39 GMT
I doubt many people these days even know who Martin Bell is (those old enough to remember him* will largely have forgotten him anyway). There's a rather crucial difference here in that Bell was endorsed by both Labour and Lib Dem parties who did not field candidates in Tatton in 1997. This individual may have a bit of a local profile but Its likely overstated. He may do better than Faiza Shaheen does in Chingford.. * and a good number of us who are in that catergory will just remember him as a sanctimonious bore. Not only that but Labour seem to be campaigning reasonably hard with a highish profile local councillor and the Lib Dems have nominated a local councillor rather than some forgettable fly-in. That should split the anti Truss vote. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 14, 2024 11:58:58 GMT
I doubt many people these days even know who Martin Bell is (those old enough to remember him* will largely have forgotten him anyway). There's a rather crucial difference here in that Bell was endorsed by both Labour and Lib Dem parties who did not field candidates in Tatton in 1997. This individual may have a bit of a local profile but Its likely overstated. He may do better than Faiza Shaheen does in Chingford.. * and a good number of us who are in that catergory will just remember him as a sanctimonious bore. What does Faiza Shaheen have to do with this seat? Lol. Just that yesterday her prospects were being ramped to an absurd degree by one or two posters - an Independent candidate with no history of holding elected office within the constituency in question. There are obvious parallels to the situation here, though it is a less clear to me (because I know and fathom this kind of area less) that this Independent will be as irrelevant to the result as she will be |
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