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Post by matureleft on Jul 19, 2024 12:40:34 GMT
In terms of the swing from the Tories needed from 2019 I think this was the hardest gain for Labour to achieve of all which was actually achieved, so it's fair enough to surmise that it could be the likeliest to fall next time. I'm sure Terry Jermy knows he is extremely likely to be a one term MP - next time round he could easily score in the mid 30s and still lose. But he has already achieved a sort of immortality Indeed. If I were him I'd be quite focused on getting a very small number of things done in the area and perhaps pursue one other interest properly in Westminster. There's not a lot of sense in trying to build a long-term parliamentary career. Of course if it turns out that he's got wider talents (or makes the appropriate relationships) he'll get opportunities do things after this parliament (assuming Labour is still in government).
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 19, 2024 12:47:11 GMT
In terms of the swing from the Tories needed from 2019 I think this was the hardest gain for Labour to achieve of all which was actually achieved, so it's fair enough to surmise that it could be the likeliest to fall next time. I'm sure Terry Jermy knows he is extremely likely to be a one term MP - next time round he could easily score in the mid 30s and still lose. But he has already achieved a sort of immortality 2029 very possible and realistic scenario! Labour have stupendous momentum here. Parts of this seat are quite bohemian, thespian and Norwich-influenced so.,, LAB 35 CON 30 RFM 26 GRN 3 LD 3 OTH 3
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Post by thirdchill on Jul 19, 2024 12:54:14 GMT
The 14% vote for the independent (a former conservative) is not something that can be ignored here and was the key to Truss' loss. That vote could quite easily go straight back to the conservatives next time, particularly if they select a local candidate who is similar to that independent.
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Post by batman on Jul 19, 2024 13:00:13 GMT
I'm sure Terry Jermy knows he is extremely likely to be a one term MP - next time round he could easily score in the mid 30s and still lose. But he has already achieved a sort of immortality 2029 very possible and realistic scenario! Labour have stupendous momentum here. Parts of this seat are quite bohemian, thespian and Norwich-influenced so.,, LAB 35 CON 30 RFM 26 GRN 3 LD 3 OTH 3 I really don't think any parts of the seat are like that at all. It's mostly quite a long way from Norwich. South Norfolk is much more Norwich-influenced.
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Post by aargauer on Jul 19, 2024 13:09:59 GMT
I'm sure Terry Jermy knows he is extremely likely to be a one term MP - next time round he could easily score in the mid 30s and still lose. But he has already achieved a sort of immortality 2029 very possible and realistic scenario! Labour have stupendous momentum here. Parts of this seat are quite bohemian, thespian and Norwich-influenced so.,, LAB 35 CON 30 RFM 26 GRN 3 LD 3 OTH 3 Yeah, no. This would have been a comfortable hold in 2024 disaster year with any other candidate. If its a comfortable labour win next time around, but not a massive landslide (my expectations if we don't have a huge recession and the conservatives provide a credible opposition), its tory by 20 or so points.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 19, 2024 13:15:39 GMT
2029 very possible and realistic scenario! Labour have stupendous momentum here. Parts of this seat are quite bohemian, thespian and Norwich-influenced so.,, LAB 35 CON 30 RFM 26 GRN 3 LD 3 OTH 3 Yeah, no. This would have been a comfortable hold in 2024 disaster year with any other candidate. If its a comfortable labour win next time around, but not a massive landslide (my expectations if we don't have a huge recession and the conservatives provide a credible opposition), its tory by 20 or so points. Labour could still max out their vote share in Thespford.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jul 19, 2024 13:28:38 GMT
The 14% vote for the independent (a former conservative) is not something that can be ignored here and was the key to Truss' loss. That vote could quite easily go straight back to the conservatives next time, particularly if they select a local candidate who is similar to that independent. The vote for Bagge can be easily interpreted as people who wanted to vote Conservative, weren't willing to vote for Reform, and hated Truss. They don't need to worry about Bagge. He won't stand again. His entire USP is gone even if he bothers.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jul 19, 2024 13:37:57 GMT
In terms of the swing from the Tories needed from 2019 I think this was the hardest gain for Labour to achieve of all which was actually achieved, so it's fair enough to surmise that it could be the likeliest to fall next time. I'm sure Terry Jermy knows he is extremely likely to be a one term MP - next time round he could easily score in the mid 30s and still lose. But he has already achieved a sort of immortality Yes, I was explicitly told by a local activist that there was a chance they could win it, but absolutely no chance they could hold it afterwards. There's an opportunity to deepen the party's roots in areas where it's currently weak and to get some things done locally, but realistically a Labour MP, no matter how good, cannot squeeze the votes of other parties in the same way as a LD or minor party MP can and it is a seat where a Tory candidate has to work quite hard not to get votes.
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Post by riccimarsh on Jul 19, 2024 13:43:35 GMT
In terms of the swing from the Tories needed from 2019 I think this was the hardest gain for Labour to achieve of all which was actually achieved, so it's fair enough to surmise that it could be the likeliest to fall next time. I'm sure Terry Jermy knows he is extremely likely to be a one term MP - next time round he could easily score in the mid 30s and still lose. But he has already achieved a sort of immortality How dare you mention the actual MP in the Liz Truss discussion thread?!?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 19, 2024 14:02:43 GMT
UKIP vote 2015: 23.3% Reform vote 2024: 22.4%
Ergo, Reform could do better here next time.
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nyx
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Post by nyx on Jul 19, 2024 17:01:52 GMT
UKIP vote 2015: 23.3% Reform vote 2024: 22.4% Ergo, Reform could do better here next time. If Reform had taken it more seriously they could have won.
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bsjmcr
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Post by bsjmcr on Jul 19, 2024 22:44:06 GMT
I know chicken-running is less common in Labour (though not absent, especially in the case of defectors like Sean Woodward) but there are almost no local safe seats in the area for him, and no likely retirements for the few there are either.
Having said that, the now-MP for Norwich South almost lost his seat (or strictly speaking didn’t get to sit in it) for very different reasons..
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jul 20, 2024 9:05:28 GMT
I can't off-hand think of a case of chicken-running that wasn't a defector (or somebody who had already lost a selection contest moving to a vacant seat.) What's more common is losing your marginal seat and then getting selected for a new and usually safer seat.
That said, Terry Jermy has lived all his life in Thetford and hasn't previously shown a burning desire to be a national political figure - no previous runs for parliament, nor candidacies for the EU Parliament that I can recall. Perhaps he'll decide that he does want to do it and in a couple of elections time he'll be apply for vacancies in Norwich or Cambridge or Peterborough, but I would be surprised.
The more normal trajectory for local government figures unexpectedly elected to parliament is that they stand for re-election, get defeated as soon as the national political climate stops being favourable enough, then go back to local government as a more experienced figure.
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Post by matureleft on Jul 20, 2024 9:10:52 GMT
I can't off-hand think of a case of chicken-running that wasn't a defector (or somebody who had already lost a selection contest moving to a vacant seat.) What's more common is losing your marginal seat and then getting selected for a new and usually safer seat. That said, Terry Jermy has lived all his life in Thetford and hasn't previously shown a burning desire to be a national political figure - no previous runs for parliament, nor candidacies for the EU Parliament that I can recall. Perhaps he'll decide that he does want to do it and in a couple of elections time he'll be apply for vacancies in Norwich or Cambridge or Peterborough, but I would be surprised. The more normal trajectory for local government figures unexpectedly elected to parliament is that they stand for re-election, get defeated as soon as the national political climate stops being favourable enough, then go back to local government as a more experienced figure. Les Huckfield chose not to seek renomination in Nuneaton for 1983 because of the assumed effect of boundary changes and tried, unsuccessfully, to get nominated in Sedgefield (among a range of other places).
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Post by greenhert on Jul 20, 2024 9:36:03 GMT
I can't off-hand think of a case of chicken-running that wasn't a defector (or somebody who had already lost a selection contest moving to a vacant seat.) What's more common is losing your marginal seat and then getting selected for a new and usually safer seat. That said, Terry Jermy has lived all his life in Thetford and hasn't previously shown a burning desire to be a national political figure - no previous runs for parliament, nor candidacies for the EU Parliament that I can recall. Perhaps he'll decide that he does want to do it and in a couple of elections time he'll be apply for vacancies in Norwich or Cambridge or Peterborough, but I would be surprised. The more normal trajectory for local government figures unexpectedly elected to parliament is that they stand for re-election, get defeated as soon as the national political climate stops being favourable enough, then go back to local government as a more experienced figure. Les Huckfield chose not to seek renomination in Nuneaton for 1983 because of the assumed effect of boundary changes and tried, unsuccessfully, to get nominated in Sedgefield (among a range of other places). Also Wigan, where Roger Stott, whose Westhoughton constituency had been abolished, was selected instead. Mr Huckfield had a point, though, because boundary changes contributed to the Conservatives winning Nuneaton in 1983.
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Post by greenhert on Jul 20, 2024 9:37:06 GMT
I can't off-hand think of a case of chicken-running that wasn't a defector (or somebody who had already lost a selection contest moving to a vacant seat.) What's more common is losing your marginal seat and then getting selected for a new and usually safer seat. That said, Terry Jermy has lived all his life in Thetford and hasn't previously shown a burning desire to be a national political figure - no previous runs for parliament, nor candidacies for the EU Parliament that I can recall. Perhaps he'll decide that he does want to do it and in a couple of elections time he'll be apply for vacancies in Norwich or Cambridge or Peterborough, but I would be surprised. The more normal trajectory for local government figures unexpectedly elected to parliament is that they stand for re-election, get defeated as soon as the national political climate stops being favourable enough, then go back to local government as a more experienced figure. Or get selected, or attempt to get selected, in safer seats.
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Post by matureleft on Jul 20, 2024 9:44:50 GMT
Les Huckfield chose not to seek renomination in Nuneaton for 1983 because of the assumed effect of boundary changes and tried, unsuccessfully, to get nominated in Sedgefield (among a range of other places). Also Wigan, where Roger Stott, whose Westhoughton constituency had been abolished, was selected instead. Mr Huckfield had a point, though, because boundary changes contributed to the Conservatives winning Nuneaton in 1983. He did have a point if the sole purpose was to remain an MP. However some loyalty to the area that has elected you, in large part, is both a good in itself and is normally of value to your party in seeking to defend the seat. He didn’t collect many brownie points for his actions.
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Post by No Offence Alan on Jul 20, 2024 10:02:33 GMT
I can't off-hand think of a case of chicken-running that wasn't a defector (or somebody who had already lost a selection contest moving to a vacant seat.) What's more common is losing your marginal seat and then getting selected for a new and usually safer seat. That said, Terry Jermy has lived all his life in Thetford and hasn't previously shown a burning desire to be a national political figure - no previous runs for parliament, nor candidacies for the EU Parliament that I can recall. Perhaps he'll decide that he does want to do it and in a couple of elections time he'll be apply for vacancies in Norwich or Cambridge or Peterborough, but I would be surprised. The more normal trajectory for local government figures unexpectedly elected to parliament is that they stand for re-election, get defeated as soon as the national political climate stops being favourable enough, then go back to local government as a more experienced figure. Is Norfolk going to get one of these new elected Mayors?
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Post by gwynthegriff on Jul 20, 2024 11:12:13 GMT
I can't off-hand think of a case of chicken-running that wasn't a defector (or somebody who had already lost a selection contest moving to a vacant seat.) What's more common is losing your marginal seat and then getting selected for a new and usually safer seat. I think the new member for Bexhill & Battle is definitely an example of chicken-running.
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ricmk
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Post by ricmk on Jul 20, 2024 11:18:37 GMT
The 14% vote for the independent (a former conservative) is not something that can be ignored here and was the key to Truss' loss. That vote could quite easily go straight back to the conservatives next time, particularly if they select a local candidate who is similar to that independent. Or indeed, exactly that Independent. A sane Tory party would have been running him as their candidate in the first place and it’s the sort of statement about the Tories returning to their senses that might be picked up more widely.
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