The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 18, 2024 13:27:44 GMT
Just coming on here to say that I called this very wrong by discounting Labour No need to apologise, this was a near impossible seat to read accurately. I did suggest Labour *might* come through the middle of Truss and her "internal" opponents, but didn't have any great confidence about it. And it still took the lowest winning percentage of the election to do so Though another thing is that much of the space you (and others) thought might be taken up by Bagge was actually with the Reform candidate, who had much less publicity.
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Post by eastmidlandsright on Jul 18, 2024 13:38:01 GMT
Just coming on here to say that I called this very wrong by discounting Labour No need to apologise, this was a near impossible seat to read accurately. I did suggest Labour *might* come through the middle of Truss and her "internal" opponents, but didn't have any great confidence about it. And it still took the lowest winning percentage of the election to do so Though another thing is that much of the space you (and others) thought might be taken up by Bagge was actually with the Reform candidate, who had much less publicity. Fewer votes and a lower vote share than Labour got in 2017. A crazy splintering of the vote always looked likely here but it was all but impossible to say who would benefit from it.
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right
Conservative
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Post by right on Jul 18, 2024 13:40:10 GMT
Just coming on here to say that I called this very wrong by discounting Labour No need to apologise, this was a near impossible seat to read accurately. I did suggest Labour *might* come through the middle of Truss and her "internal" opponents, but didn't have any great confidence about it. And it still took the lowest winning percentage of the election to do so Though another thing is that much of the space you (and others) thought might be taken up by Bagge was actually with the Reform candidate, who had much less publicity.That's a very good point. It reminds me of the Norwich North by-election where the Green candidate (I think it was Rupert Reid) were very much feted and indeed there seemed to be a chance they could win and yet came some way behind the much less talked about UKIP, which presaged a lot about the time to now
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Post by batman on Jul 18, 2024 14:35:56 GMT
No need to apologise, this was a near impossible seat to read accurately. I did suggest Labour *might* come through the middle of Truss and her "internal" opponents, but didn't have any great confidence about it. And it still took the lowest winning percentage of the election to do so Though another thing is that much of the space you (and others) thought might be taken up by Bagge was actually with the Reform candidate, who had much less publicity. Fewer votes and a lower vote share than Labour got in 2017. A crazy splintering of the vote always looked likely here but it was all but impossible to say who would benefit from it. 15 of us nevertheless managed to predict it. I just thought that Bagge & Reform would disproportionately take votes away from her rather than Labour, but that neither would be able to win themselves, and that Labour's strength in Thetford, plus reasonable presence in Downham Market, might just be enough. It needed two viable candidates right of centre to oppose the Tories and that was, unusually, what we saw in this constituency.
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Post by eastmidlandsright on Jul 18, 2024 17:39:28 GMT
Fewer votes and a lower vote share than Labour got in 2017. A crazy splintering of the vote always looked likely here but it was all but impossible to say who would benefit from it. 15 of us nevertheless managed to predict it. I just thought that Bagge & Reform would disproportionately take votes away from her rather than Labour, but that neither would be able to win themselves, and that Labour's strength in Thetford, plus reasonable presence in Downham Market, might just be enough. It needed two viable candidates right of centre to oppose the Tories and that was, unusually, what we saw in this constituency. Well yes, obviously it was possible to predict it but I doubt anyone could be confident about that prediction. The key part about two right of centre candidates opposing Truss was not just the numbers but that they appealed to different sections of the Tory vote.
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Post by batman on Jul 18, 2024 17:51:01 GMT
no, that's fair enough. I wasn't 100% confident & I very much doubt that Terry Jermy (the successful Labour candidate) was either.
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Post by heslingtonian on Jul 18, 2024 19:31:04 GMT
I'm going to nominate this as the seat the Conservatives are most likely to regain at the next General Election unless they do something insane and renominate Truss. No disrespect to Terry Jermy who appears a decent man but surely virtually anyone else standing as the Conservative candidate would have held this.
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bsjmcr
Non-Aligned
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Post by bsjmcr on Jul 18, 2024 21:20:49 GMT
I'm going to nominate this as the seat the Conservatives are most likely to regain at the next General Election unless they do something insane and renominate Truss. No disrespect to Terry Jermy who appears a decent man but surely virtually anyone else standing as the Conservative candidate would have held this. Poole and NW Cambridgeshire are higher up the list surely? I think you might be right though with it being unlikely Bagge stands again, plus NW Norfolk was one of the few regains in 2001
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Post by batman on Jul 18, 2024 21:39:29 GMT
In terms of the swing from the Tories needed from 2019 I think this was the hardest gain for Labour to achieve of all which was actually achieved, so it's fair enough to surmise that it could be the likeliest to fall next time.
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maxque
Non-Aligned
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Post by maxque on Jul 18, 2024 21:52:55 GMT
I'm going to nominate this as the seat the Conservatives are most likely to regain at the next General Election unless they do something insane and renominate Truss. No disrespect to Terry Jermy who appears a decent man but surely virtually anyone else standing as the Conservative candidate would have held this. Poole and NW Cambridgeshire are higher up the list surely? No. NW Cambs is pretty much Peterborough S at this point and this will be even more true in 5 years. As for Poole, it seems to be slowly going the Labour way of seaside resorts on the South Coast. It is very likely Conservatives will take it back, but I think the majority will be lesser in those two than in SW Norfolk.
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Post by heslingtonian on Jul 19, 2024 5:50:21 GMT
Poole and NW Cambridgeshire are higher up the list surely? No. NW Cambs is pretty much Peterborough S at this point and this will be even more true in 5 years. As for Poole, it seems to be slowly going the Labour way of seaside resorts on the South Coast. It is very likely Conservatives will take it back, but I think the majority will be lesser in those two than in SW Norfolk. And surely the Truss factor which will presumably be absent at the next General Election will be in the Conservatives' favour. If there was ever a candidate with a negative personal vote then surely this was it.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 19, 2024 6:13:12 GMT
1964: Conservative 1966: Conservative 1970: Conservative F1974: Conservative O1974: Conservative 1979: Conservative 1983: Conservative 1987: Conservative 1992: Conservative 1997: Conservative 2001: Conservative 2005: Conservative 2010: Conservative 2015: Conservative 2017: Conservative 2019: Conservative 2024: Labour
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right
Conservative
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Post by right on Jul 19, 2024 6:33:26 GMT
1964: Conservative 1966: Conservative 1970: Conservative F1974: Conservative O1974: Conservative 1979: Conservative 1983: Conservative 1987: Conservative 1992: Conservative 1997: Conservative 2001: Conservative 2005: Conservative 2010: Conservative 2015: Conservative 2017: Conservative 2019: Conservative 2024: Labour You started where you started for a reason
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 19, 2024 6:42:47 GMT
1964: Conservative 1966: Conservative 1970: Conservative F1974: Conservative O1974: Conservative 1979: Conservative 1983: Conservative 1987: Conservative 1992: Conservative 1997: Conservative 2001: Conservative 2005: Conservative 2010: Conservative 2015: Conservative 2017: Conservative 2019: Conservative 2024: Labour You started where you started for a reason 60 years of results. 60 is a nice round number. I could've done 100 of course. Here's 1924 to 1964 when it was a Labour-inclined marginal. 1924: Conservative 1929: Labour 1931: Conservative 1935: Conservative 1945: Labour 1950: Labour1951: Conservative 1955: Labour1959: Labour
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Post by batman on Jul 19, 2024 8:02:07 GMT
This constituency's behaviour was very contradictory at times in the 1950s. The Labour victories of 1955 & 1959 (plus an intervening by-election also in 1959) were despite the fact that at that time the seat did not include Thetford, by far Labour's strongest area in the seat nowadays. But then, Labour has just won South Norfolk too........
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Post by eastmidlandsright on Jul 19, 2024 9:51:00 GMT
This constituency's behaviour was very contradictory at times in the 1950s. The Labour victories of 1955 & 1959 (plus an intervening by-election also in 1959) were despite the fact that at that time the seat did not include Thetford, by far Labour's strongest area in the seat nowadays. But then, Labour has just won South Norfolk too........ Agricultural workers were a different sort back then, pretty numerous and very open to voting Labour.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jul 19, 2024 10:34:18 GMT
Thetford would also have been a rather different place in the 1950s, as large-scale housebuilding to accomodate residents moved out of London was only just starting and the movement of former agricultural workers to small towns was very far from complete.
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Post by matureleft on Jul 19, 2024 10:52:50 GMT
Obviously this result was rather freakish but the thing that struck me is how robust the Labour vote was - up 8.4% against 2019 and only a slightly lower percentage than in 2017.
With the amount of background noise and alternative options available that's a very effective campaign. Was it a genuine target? I can imagine it might have had a reasonable volunteer cohort because of Truss regardless.
I'd also say that while Thetford is currently strong for Labour that's not overwhelming based on local election results and there's been pretty substantial UKIP support there in the past suggesting that Reform would probably have plenty of votes in the town.
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Post by batman on Jul 19, 2024 10:59:26 GMT
I wonder what her intentions are. Surely the last thing the Tories need is her back in the House, or even attempting to get there.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,304
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 19, 2024 12:04:02 GMT
In terms of the swing from the Tories needed from 2019 I think this was the hardest gain for Labour to achieve of all which was actually achieved, so it's fair enough to surmise that it could be the likeliest to fall next time. I'm sure Terry Jermy knows he is extremely likely to be a one term MP - next time round he could easily score in the mid 30s and still lose. But he has already achieved a sort of immortality
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