South West Norfolk

[Deleted]

CON 38%
IND 31%
LAB 15%
RFM 12%
OTH 4%

The lack of coalescence around Bagge is a problem. This seat was sort of close in 1997, but not really a bad Tory result in the grand scheme of things. 

[batman]

There's quite a long part of an article by Jonathan Freedland in the Guardian today about this constituency. He mentions Truss, Labour & Reform but doesn't even mention James Bagge. Freedland is not noted for being thick, but either he is showing his ignorance, or in the constituency there is not as much support for him as some have supposed.

I strongly doubt that Labour gets as little as 15% here. That would require major vote-squeezing from Bagge & I'm not convinced that he is going to succeed in that amongst Labour voters.

[Ron Swanson]

If any candidate deserved the Neil Hamilton treatment it was this one.

[right]

Jun 22, 2024 17:33:28 GMT batman said:

There's quite a long part of an article by Jonathan Freedland in the Guardian today about this constituency. He mentions Truss, Labour & Reform but doesn't even mention James Bagge. Freedland is not noted for being thick, but either he is showing his ignorance, or in the constituency there is not as much support for him as some have supposed.

I strongly doubt that Labour gets as little as 15% here. That would require major vote-squeezing from Bagge & I'm not convinced that he is going to succeed in that amongst Labour voters.

Freedland isn't stupid but is Brexit blind so may be deliberately ignoring Bagge. It would be unusual not to come across evidence of his campaign.

The Bagges, particularly his older brother, were Leavers. James is generally less sound than his brother and I've found no evidence of his vote either way, but not looked very hard and it's 50/50 he was Remain. Freedland may know better than me.

[Devil Wincarnate]

Jun 22, 2024 17:33:28 GMT batman said:

There's quite a long part of an article by Jonathan Freedland in the Guardian today about this constituency. He mentions Truss, Labour & Reform but doesn't even mention James Bagge. Freedland is not noted for being thick, but either he is showing his ignorance, or in the constituency there is not as much support for him as some have supposed.

I strongly doubt that Labour gets as little as 15% here. That would require major vote-squeezing from Bagge & I'm not convinced that he is going to succeed in that amongst Labour voters.

Bagge has two problems with that Labour vote.

Firstly, as you suggest, his product doesn't really appeal to high-information Labour voters.

Secondly, even the lowest-information voter is going to know that a vote for Labour is a vote against Truss. That's arguably even harder to shift, as they're not likely to be up for a spot of tactical voting.

[right]

Jun 22, 2024 20:18:14 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

Jun 22, 2024 17:33:28 GMT batman said:

There's quite a long part of an article by Jonathan Freedland in the Guardian today about this constituency. He mentions Truss, Labour & Reform but doesn't even mention James Bagge. Freedland is not noted for being thick, but either he is showing his ignorance, or in the constituency there is not as much support for him as some have supposed.

I strongly doubt that Labour gets as little as 15% here. That would require major vote-squeezing from Bagge & I'm not convinced that he is going to succeed in that amongst Labour voters.

Bagge has two problems with that Labour vote.

Firstly, as you suggest, his product doesn't really appeal to high-information Labour voters.

Secondly, even the lowest-information voter is going to know that a vote for Labour is a vote against Truss. That's arguably even harder to shift, as they're not likely to be up for a spot of tactical voting.

In a one party seat the opposition vote can coalesce around the strangest people, sometimes just out of a sense that any competition for the area would be nice. Seen it at ward, council and constituency level for and against candidates I supported and I'm sure others have similar stories.

It's hard to get to that place, but when you do then all sorts of unlikely voters at high and low information levels fall into your lap. Not saying Bagge's there yet, but he's much more likely to get there than Labour.

[batman]

I'm not sure that voters will necessarily think that way. In some areas they will but less so in Thetford. It's not easy to get people to vote tactically against the party which is already second in favour of a candidate who has never stood before

[right]

Jun 22, 2024 21:01:03 GMT batman said:

I'm not sure that voters will necessarily think that way. In some areas they will but less so in Thetford. It's not easy to get people to vote tactically against the party which is already second in favour of a candidate who has never stood before

It's not easy to get to the place where he's seen as the likely replacement but if he gets there it would be very hard to hold on to even core Labour voters

[batman]

if he gets there yes.

[steve]

There's an opportunity for someone but it's doubtful anyone is going to take it.

news.sky.com/story/amp/liz-truss-constituency-hangs-in-the-balance-after-voters-look-to-cast-ballots-on-her-record-as-pm-13157398

[YL]

This is a seat where it would be interesting to see a competently carried out constituency poll.

[East Anglian Lefty]

I was in Thetford yesterday. Lots of Labour posters, absolutely no evidence of Bagge. Truss had been campaigning a couple of days before in the estate I was canvassing, not entirely to her benefit.

[yellowperil]

Jun 25, 2024 20:23:27 GMT East Anglian Lefty said:

I was in Thetford yesterday. Lots of Labour posters, absolutely no evidence of Bagge. Truss had been campaigning a couple of days before in the estate I was canvassing, not entirely to her benefit.

You were canvassing, not entirely to her benefit? So I should hope!

[East Anglian Lefty]

I'm not necessarily good at canvassing, but I'd like to think I'm not that bad. Though if I was as nationally unpopular as Truss, I probably would be.

[right]

Jun 25, 2024 20:23:27 GMT East Anglian Lefty said:

I was in Thetford yesterday. Lots of Labour posters, absolutely no evidence of Bagge. Truss had been campaigning a couple of days before in the estate I was canvassing, not entirely to her benefit.

What's the opinion among Labour locally?

[East Anglian Lefty]

The ones I spoke to were cautiously optimistic of a good result, though I think there is a pretty large range of results than you could call "a good result".

[eastmidlandsright]

It is pretty easy to imagine a scenario where Truss hangs on with a really poor share of the vote as the opposition to her splinters between Labour, Reform and Bagge.

[right]

Jun 26, 2024 9:24:51 GMT East Anglian Lefty said:

The ones I spoke to were cautiously optimistic of a good result, though I think there is a pretty large range of results than you could call "a good result".

A good result is pretty much nailed on unless Bagge starts to look like a winner, which as you say he doesn't seem to have crossed over into strong Labour areas.

[right]

Jun 26, 2024 9:28:10 GMT eastmidlandsright said:

It is pretty easy to imagine a scenario where Truss hangs on with a really poor share of the vote as the opposition to her splinters between Labour, Reform and Bagge.

Although this is naturally a strong Reform area, Truss may have some Reform voters going for her due to being recognised as right wing and (admittedly ironically) as rather Brexity.  I'd expect the Reform swing to be subdued compared to surrounding seats.

It will still harm her.

[East Anglian Lefty]

A lot of the Reform vote is very anti-politics, and hence hardly likely to vote for the woman who exemplifies useless politicians. It's also almost exclusively coming from the Conservative 2019 pool (with the next largest element being 2019 non-voters) and hence probably doesn't help in terms of splitting the anti-Truss vote.