Colchester

[stb12]

Colchester

[markgoodair]

Reform have selected Terence Longstaff as their PPC.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

This is interesting, in light of the seat's history.

[batman]

yes that's definitely the case. Although the LDs have held Colchester fairly recently they are not in contention there now. They will be working in Chelmsford & possibly other seats but not really in Colchester.

[East Anglian Lefty]

That blog is a consistently terrible source of information.

[mrtoad]

Yes - a seat that has changed over from being Lib Dem interest to Labour interest in a pretty abrupt two stage process in 2015 and 2017, without a real period of three-way marginality in the middle; the Lib Dems remain a force, but not dominant, at local government level (see also Southport). St Albans has gone the other way since it was a Labour seat in 1997-2005 although in that case the Lib Dems have nearly squeezed Labour out in local elections too.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

There's more than a hint that the Lib Dems are suffering from the same problem they had in the inter-war period. There are something like 300 seats which the Liberals won at various elections in 1918-39, but each of them seemed to go through a phase of being Liberal and were not winnable again after it. Had they managed to keep hold of their seats, the Liberals would have been able to remain a major player.

The next election looks like being a big Lib Dem opportunity for seat gains, but they're generally coming in seats the Lib Dems didn't hold in 1997-2015.

[iang]

I wouldn't say that - most of the closest targets, eg Cheltenham, Winchester, Carshalton, were seats held 1997 onwards. What do seem to be a long way off, and probably gone for good, are the Labour facing seats won especially on either 2005 or 2010. Such seats as are still in contention which are Labour facing now like Hallam weren't when they were first won

[East Anglian Lefty]

May 17, 2024 13:39:47 GMT iang said:

I wouldn't say that - most of the closest targets, eg Cheltenham, Winchester, Carshalton, were seats held 1997 onwards. What do seem to be a long way off, and probably gone for good, are the Labour facing seats won especially on either 2005 or 2010. Such seats as are still in contention which are Labour facing now like Hallam weren't when they were first won

You're missing out the much larger category of semi-rural seats in the South West of England. Even in the event of a total Tory collapse, it's unlikely the LDs will be winning as many seats in that category as they did in 1997 (whereas they'll likely do much better in the Home Counties.)

[graham]

May 17, 2024 13:39:47 GMT iang said:

I wouldn't say that - most of the closest targets, eg Cheltenham, Winchester, Carshalton, were seats held 1997 onwards. What do seem to be a long way off, and probably gone for good, are the Labour facing seats won especially on either 2005 or 2010. Such seats as are still in contention which are Labour facing now like Hallam weren't when they were first won

Carshalton might see a Labour revival - the seat was a Tory-Labour marginal back in the 1970s. Now that Tom Brake has lost the seat and is not standing this year, it will be interesting to see whether the large scale tactical voting by former Labour voters will be transferred to his successor. Labour will be hoping for the pattern seen in Portsmouth South and Southport to be repeated here - given that the party does have a history in the area.

[iang]

May 17, 2024 14:27:43 GMT East Anglian Lefty said:

May 17, 2024 13:39:47 GMT iang said:

I wouldn't say that - most of the closest targets, eg Cheltenham, Winchester, Carshalton, were seats held 1997 onwards. What do seem to be a long way off, and probably gone for good, are the Labour facing seats won especially on either 2005 or 2010. Such seats as are still in contention which are Labour facing now like Hallam weren't when they were first won

You're missing out the much larger category of semi-rural seats in the South West of England. Even in the event of a total Tory collapse, it's unlikely the LDs will be winning as many seats in that category as they did in 1997 (whereas they'll likely do much better in the Home Counties.)

Yes, that seems fair comment, on both grounds. There are still some SW seats which are very much in play, and we control Dorset & Somerset councils, and the two by-election victories down there will certainly help - but yes, the degree of domination we once had seems to have gone, and the axis of the Parliamentary Party after the next election will almost certainly shift very much to the Home Counties

[batman]

May 17, 2024 14:43:06 GMT graham said:

May 17, 2024 13:39:47 GMT iang said:

I wouldn't say that - most of the closest targets, eg Cheltenham, Winchester, Carshalton, were seats held 1997 onwards. What do seem to be a long way off, and probably gone for good, are the Labour facing seats won especially on either 2005 or 2010. Such seats as are still in contention which are Labour facing now like Hallam weren't when they were first won

Carshalton might see a Labour revival - the seat was a Tory-Labour marginal back in the 1970s. Now that Tom Brake has lost the seat and is not standing this year, it will be interesting to see whether the large scale tactical voting by former Labour voters will be transferred to his successor. Labour will be hoping for the pattern seen in Portsmouth South and Southport to be repeated here - given that the party does have a history in the area.

I keep telling you, Labour will not be working the seat seriously. It's just not a target seat. The LDs will squeeze the Labour vote for all it's worth, and Labour will not have a serious presence on the ground to counteract it. Wimbledon is a different matter, that will see & has seen some Labour activity, and that is potentially a fascinating contest. Carshalton & Wallington is only fascinating inasmuch as the Tories may hope to save it against all polling evidence, but I think they have little or no chance of doing that.

[graham]

May 17, 2024 16:12:27 GMT batman said:

May 17, 2024 14:43:06 GMT graham said:

Carshalton might see a Labour revival - the seat was a Tory-Labour marginal back in the 1970s. Now that Tom Brake has lost the seat and is not standing this year, it will be interesting to see whether the large scale tactical voting by former Labour voters will be transferred to his successor. Labour will be hoping for the pattern seen in Portsmouth South and Southport to be repeated here - given that the party does have a history in the area.

I keep telling you, Labour will not be working the seat seriously. It's just not a target seat. The LDs will squeeze the Labour vote for all it's worth, and Labour will not have a serious presence on the ground to counteract it. Wimbledon is a different matter, that will see & has seen some Labour activity, and that is potentially a fascinating contest. Carshalton & Wallington is only fascinating inasmuch as the Tories may hope to save it against all polling evidence, but I think they have little or no chance of doing that.

Labour did win quite a few non-target seats in 1997 - it can happen again! I doubt that Portsmouth South was a target seat in 2017.

[batman]

Well if so Carshalton won't be one of them. Look at our disastrous by-election defeat in St Helier earlier this month. That wasn't a party set to gain the parliamentary seat. I agree that some non-target seats could perhaps be won, but not that one.

[graham]

That may be so - but local elections are often not good predictors of parliamentary elections and ,in particular ,tend to flatter LD prospects.In the recent by election there were apparently local factors in play related to the resignation of the departing Labour councillor which were unhelpful.I do not recall Labour's performance at Portsmouth local elections being stunning prior to the triumph there in 2017. Beyond that LDs - and Liberals before them - have often relied on significant personal votes to retain parliamentary seats, and that does not always transfer to new candidates. Alan Beith in Berwick upon Tweed is a good example of that . Going back much further , Eric Lubbock only narrowly lost Orpingon in 1970 - yet the Liberals failed to win it back in 1974 despite the Thorpe surge that year. The appalling Cyril Smith clearly had a personal vote in Rochdale which failed to sustain Liz Lynne for very long.
In Carshalton , the loss of Tom Brake's personal vote might well not be enough in the short term to put Labour in serious contention there , but it might push the LDs back - with Labour advancing a fair bit - with the result that the Tories hold on  - a bit like Portsmouth South in 2015 rather than 2017.

[greenhert]

May 17, 2024 16:12:27 GMT batman said:

May 17, 2024 14:43:06 GMT graham said:

Carshalton might see a Labour revival - the seat was a Tory-Labour marginal back in the 1970s. Now that Tom Brake has lost the seat and is not standing this year, it will be interesting to see whether the large scale tactical voting by former Labour voters will be transferred to his successor. Labour will be hoping for the pattern seen in Portsmouth South and Southport to be repeated here - given that the party does have a history in the area.

I keep telling you, Labour will not be working the seat seriously. It's just not a target seat. The LDs will squeeze the Labour vote for all it's worth, and Labour will not have a serious presence on the ground to counteract it. Wimbledon is a different matter, that will see & has seen some Labour activity, and that is potentially a fascinating contest. Carshalton & Wallington is only fascinating inasmuch as the Tories may hope to save it against all polling evidence, but I think they have little or no chance of doing that.

Regarding Wimbledon, the odds are in the Liberal Democrats' favour even though Labour have a significant council presence in Wimbledon's wards as well-the result is likely to mimic Sheffield Hallam/Leeds NW in 2015.

[batman]

I will be absolutely amazed if the Tories hold on in Carshalton but of course sometimes weird things can happen. Tom Brake did have a personal vote, but the Lib Dems remain dominant in the council wards which form the constituency. Indeed, the Tories have not won any ward in the constituency outright in council elections for a long time now. So it really isn't just Tom Brake's personal vote. (yes I do know that following a recent by-election the Tories do now hold one ward outright)

[graham]

May 17, 2024 19:14:40 GMT greenhert said:

May 17, 2024 16:12:27 GMT batman said:

I keep telling you, Labour will not be working the seat seriously. It's just not a target seat. The LDs will squeeze the Labour vote for all it's worth, and Labour will not have a serious presence on the ground to counteract it. Wimbledon is a different matter, that will see & has seen some Labour activity, and that is potentially a fascinating contest. Carshalton & Wallington is only fascinating inasmuch as the Tories may hope to save it against all polling evidence, but I think they have little or no chance of doing that.

Regarding Wimbledon, the odds are in the Liberal Democrats' favour even though Labour have a significant council presence in Wimbledon's wards as well-the result is likely to mimic Sheffield Hallam/Leeds NW in 2015.

There is a serious danger of reading too much into local election results. Both the LDs and the Greens tend to do so and often suffer disappointment  as a consequence.

[iain]

May 17, 2024 19:10:18 GMT graham said:

That may be so - but local elections are often not good predictors of parliamentary elections and ,in particular ,tend to flatter LD prospects.In the recent by election there were apparently local factors in play related to the resignation of the departing Labour councillor which were unhelpful.I do not recall Labour's performance at Portsmouth local elections being stunning prior to the triumph there in 2017. Beyond that LDs - and Liberals before them - have often relied on significant personal votes to retain parliamentary seats, and that does not always transfer to new candidates. Alan Beith in Berwick upon Tweed is a good example of that . Going back much further , Eric Lubbock only narrowly lost Orpingon in 1970 - yet the Liberals failed to win it back in 1974 despite the Thorpe surge that year. The appalling Cyril Smith clearly had a personal vote in Rochdale which failed to sustain Liz Lynne for very long.
In Carshalton , the loss of Tom Brake's personal vote might well not be enough in the short term to put Labour in serious contention there , but it might push the LDs back - with Labour advancing a fair bit - with the result that the Tories hold on  - a bit like Portsmouth South in 2015 rather than 2017.

Labour took a strong second in local elections in Portsmouth South prior to their victory as I remember it, and the same was true of Southport. That is emphatically not the case in Carshalton.

Anyway, when it comes to Colchester there was never any prospect of the Lib Dems taking the seat seriously.

[batman]

Actually no, the Lib Dems were still second in Portsmouth South in 2015. We haven't won Southport yet, though I have absolutely no doubt that we are about to.