Colchester

[graham]

May 17, 2024 19:15:44 GMT batman said:

I will be absolutely amazed if the Tories hold on in Carshalton but of course sometimes weird things can happen. Tom Brake did have a personal vote, but the Lib Dems remain dominant in the council wards which form the constituency. Indeed, the Tories have not won any ward in the constituency outright in council elections for a long time now. So it really isn't just Tom Brake's personal vote. (yes I do know that following a recent by-election the Tories do now hold one ward outright)

Not many commentators expected the the Tories to hold on to Orpington in  February 1974 - yet they doubled their majority.

[Merseymike]

May 17, 2024 19:10:18 GMT graham said:

The appalling Cyril Smith clearly had a personal vote in Rochdale which failed to sustain Liz Lynne for very long.

Though Liz Lynne was somebody very different than Cyril Smith - she lost in 1997 when Labour won, but then Paul Rowen won the next LibDem seat, a local councillor - and then lost the Labour MP Laura Fitzsimons.

The problem was in 2015 where LibDems literally disappeared.

[graham]

May 17, 2024 19:19:53 GMT iain said:

May 17, 2024 19:10:18 GMT graham said:

That may be so - but local elections are often not good predictors of parliamentary elections and ,in particular ,tend to flatter LD prospects.In the recent by election there were apparently local factors in play related to the resignation of the departing Labour councillor which were unhelpful.I do not recall Labour's performance at Portsmouth local elections being stunning prior to the triumph there in 2017. Beyond that LDs - and Liberals before them - have often relied on significant personal votes to retain parliamentary seats, and that does not always transfer to new candidates. Alan Beith in Berwick upon Tweed is a good example of that . Going back much further , Eric Lubbock only narrowly lost Orpingon in 1970 - yet the Liberals failed to win it back in 1974 despite the Thorpe surge that year. The appalling Cyril Smith clearly had a personal vote in Rochdale which failed to sustain Liz Lynne for very long.
In Carshalton , the loss of Tom Brake's personal vote might well not be enough in the short term to put Labour in serious contention there , but it might push the LDs back - with Labour advancing a fair bit - with the result that the Tories hold on  - a bit like Portsmouth South in 2015 rather than 2017.

Labour took a strong second in local in Portsmouth South prior to their victory as I remember it, and the same was true of Southport. That is emphatically not the case in Carshalton.

Anyway, when it comes to Colchester there was never any prospect of the Lib Dems taking the seat seriously.

There is an underlying Labour vote in Carshalton which in recent decades has been hidden by tactical voting. Labour did win the GLC seat way back in 1973 , and that led commentaors to suggest that Robert Carr could be in trouble in 1974. The potential is there for a very good Labour vote - something not true of a seat such as Orpington. In a GE the focus will be on the national picture as the campaign develops , and I expect that to override local campaigning efforts to a  great extent. If Labour is seen as likely to be heading for a big win, it will likely dissuade tactical voting - particularly in the context of a new LD candidate.

[iain]

May 17, 2024 19:21:27 GMT batman said:

Actually no, the Lib Dems were still second in Portsmouth South in 2015. We haven't won Southport yet, though I have absolutely no doubt that we are about to.

I meant in local elections - have edited my post to make it clearer.

[iain]

May 17, 2024 19:32:52 GMT graham said:

May 17, 2024 19:19:53 GMT iain said:

Labour took a strong second in local in Portsmouth South prior to their victory as I remember it, and the same was true of Southport. That is emphatically not the case in Carshalton.

Anyway, when it comes to Colchester there was never any prospect of the Lib Dems taking the seat seriously.

There is an underlying Labour vote in Carshalton which in recent decades has been hidden by tactical voting. Labour did win the GLC seat way back in 1973 , and that led commentaors to suggest that Robert Carr could be in trouble in 1974. The potential is there for a very good Labour vote - something not true of a seat such as Orpington. In a GE the focus will be on the national picture as the campaign develops , and I expect that to override local campaigning efforts to a  great extent. If Labour is seen as likely to be heading for a big win, it will likely dissuade tactical voting - particularly in the context of a new LD candidate.

Well there’s basically unanimity on here that you are not only wrong, but miles out. Nonetheless, if you want to keep boring on about this nonsense could you at least take it to the Carshalton thread.

[Pete Whitehead]

I had a feeling we were going to hear the Carshalton drum being banged again on this thread

[batman]

Distant Drums by Jim Graham Reeves

[graham]

May 17, 2024 19:59:13 GMT iain said:

May 17, 2024 19:32:52 GMT graham said:

There is an underlying Labour vote in Carshalton which in recent decades has been hidden by tactical voting. Labour did win the GLC seat way back in 1973 , and that led commentaors to suggest that Robert Carr could be in trouble in 1974. The potential is there for a very good Labour vote - something not true of a seat such as Orpington. In a GE the focus will be on the national picture as the campaign develops , and I expect that to override local campaigning efforts to a  great extent. If Labour is seen as likely to be heading for a big win, it will likely dissuade tactical voting - particularly in the context of a new LD candidate.

Well there’s basically unanimity on here that you are not only wrong, but miles out. Nonetheless, if you want to keep boring on about this nonsense could you at least take it to the Carshalton thread.

The reference to Carshalton on here came from another contributor - a LD. I am really pointing out that LDs - and Liberals - have a history of finding it difficult to win back parliamentary seats that have been lost. In addition to Berwick, I could have mentioned Montgomery and Ceredigion in Wales. I also very much doubt that the new Brecon,Radnor & Cwm Tawe will fall to the LDs this year.

[iang]

Hang on a minute - I mentioned Carshalton in passing, along with a number of other seats, so it's apparently my fault (well naturally, as I'm a LD) because I forced you with the sheer power of my personality to drone on (and on and on), as usual. As it was obviously my fault, I offer my heartfelt apologies to everyone else on the forum

[iang]

And given that Cardigan was lost in 1966 and won back in 1974, then lost in 1992 and won back in 2005, it isn't perhaps the best example of how the Liberals can't ever win back a seat once it's been lost

[johnloony]

May 17, 2024 21:34:32 GMT iang said:

And given that Cardigan was lost in 1966 and won back in 1974, then lost in 1992 and won back in 2005, it isn't perhaps the best example of how the Liberals can't ever win back a seat once it's been lost

And given that Cardigan / Ceredigion is in the Celtic fringe / radical / nonconformist / religious / various-whatever-other-stereotypes area, which over the decades has voted Liberal, Labour, Plaid Cymru and Whatever other non-Conservative local factors idiosyncratic swings not following the national trend mountains sheep chapels grassroots language culture, it isn’t perhaps the best example of being like Colchester or Rochdale or wherever the Lib Dems have won and lost and then not won again.

[carolus]

May 17, 2024 20:02:49 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

I had a feeling we were going to hear the Carshalton drum being banged again on this thread

And there shall be walling(ton) and gnashing of teeth.

[graham]

May 17, 2024 21:34:32 GMT iang said:

And given that Cardigan was lost in 1966 and won back in 1974, then lost in 1992 and won back in 2005, it isn't perhaps the best example of how the Liberals can't ever win back a seat once it's been lost

But it has proved difficult to win back that seat!

[graham]

May 17, 2024 21:28:39 GMT iang said:

Hang on a minute - I mentioned Carshalton in passing, along with a number of other seats, so it's apparently my fault (well naturally, as I'm a LD) because I forced you with the sheer power of my personality to drone on (and on and on), as usual. As it was obviously my fault, I offer my heartfelt apologies to everyone else on the forum

I am sorry , but if offering an alternative perspective on a particular seat - based on cited historical evidence in support - is to 'drone on and on and on' it  is perhaps a reflection of your issues rather than my own.

[graham]

May 17, 2024 21:45:18 GMT johnloony said:

May 17, 2024 21:34:32 GMT iang said:

And given that Cardigan was lost in 1966 and won back in 1974, then lost in 1992 and won back in 2005, it isn't perhaps the best example of how the Liberals can't ever win back a seat once it's been lost

And given that Cardigan / Ceredigion is in the Celtic fringe / radical / nonconformist / religious / various-whatever-other-stereotypes area, which over the decades has voted Liberal, Labour, Plaid Cymru and Whatever other non-Conservative local factors idiosyncratic swings not following the national trend mountains sheep chapels grassroots language culture, it isn’t perhaps the best example of being like Colchester or Rochdale or wherever the Lib Dems have won and lost and then not won again.

But Montgomery and the new seat of Brecon, Radnor & Cwm Tawe was included in the same comment!

[Pete Whitehead]

	Con	Lab	Lib/LD
1974	38.3%	38.3%	23.4%
1974	39.3%	40.9%	19.8%
1979	47.1%	38.2%	14.7%
1983	47.8%	19.9%	30.9%
1987	46.7%	18.8%	34.5%
1992	47.2%	22.3%	29.3%

	Con	Lab	LD	Ref/UKIP	Grn
1997	32.0%	29.5%	34.9%	3.4%
2001	30.6%	24.3%	42.6%	1.5%
2005	33.8%	19.4%	46.8%
2010	33.4%	12.3%	47.5%	2.9%	1.5%
2015	39.8%	16.0%	27.1%	11.8%	5.1%
2017	46.9%	34.0%	17.2%		1.5%
2019	52.3%	30.1%	14.7%		2.9%

[hempie]

SOPN:
cbccrmdata.blob.core.windows.net/noteattachment/CBC-null-Notice-of-Poll-Statement-of-Persons-Nominated-and-Situations-of-Polling-Station-Notice%20of%20Poll%20Statement%20of%20Persons%20Nominated%20&%20Situations%20of%20Polling%20Station.pdf

Candidates - 5 main parties plus Climate Party

[catfest]

James Cracknell (Conservative candidate for Colchester) making derogatory remarks about 'his' party. 

There follows a tweet:-  < not sure how to embed a tweet into a post ? . . . > 

link  

Jim Pickard 🐋

@pickardje

James Cracknell, the former Olympic rower - who is standing to be a Conservative MP - has called the Tories a “shower of shit” in a video he posted on Facebook

From theguardian.com 

 Edit:  Link above does link to the tweet . . . 

[batman]

Sorry, had to chuckle at that description.

[johnloony]

I only realised today that James Cracknell is the Conservative candidate