right
Conservative
Posts: 18,382
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Post by right on Jul 1, 2024 6:47:56 GMT
LePens National Rally's stunning success will probably help add legitimacy to Farages march to power, rather than it being a vote loser. Perhaps credibility rather than legitimacy
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Jul 1, 2024 17:12:58 GMT
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Post by observer on Jul 1, 2024 17:24:09 GMT
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Jack
Reform Party
Posts: 8,459
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Clacton
Jul 1, 2024 17:32:35 GMT
via mobile
Post by Jack on Jul 1, 2024 17:32:35 GMT
Someone on the right of politics holding a rally.
Obviously means he's basically Hitler.
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right
Conservative
Posts: 18,382
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Post by right on Jul 1, 2024 18:08:38 GMT
Anecdotes aren't data but, a friend of mine was talking to a very left wing teacher who was "with regret" tactically voting Conservative (she suspects for the first time in his life) to stop Farage
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Clacton
Jul 1, 2024 19:06:10 GMT
via mobile
Post by Ron Swanson on Jul 1, 2024 19:06:10 GMT
If he is holding rallies in Birmingham it means that he and his key team aren’t canvassing in the constituency.
Watling ought to be quietly pleased…
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right
Conservative
Posts: 18,382
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Post by right on Jul 1, 2024 19:09:39 GMT
If he is holding rallies in Birmingham it means that he and his key team aren’t canvassing in the constituency. Watling ought to be quietly pleased… You do wonder why he thought it would be a good idea to say that At least he's got some national press coverage that's not about playing a vicar in Bread or losing twice to Carswell
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Post by willpower3 on Jul 1, 2024 19:14:32 GMT
If he is holding rallies in Birmingham it means that he and his key team aren’t canvassing in the constituency. Watling ought to be quietly pleased… Should he be? It might indicate that Farage and his team think Clacton is in the bag.
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Post by johnloony on Jul 1, 2024 19:30:13 GMT
If he is holding rallies in Birmingham it means that he and his key team aren’t canvassing in the constituency. Watling ought to be quietly pleased… Reminds me of the time when Ian Beale on EastEnders was strutting around on the afternoon of election day in his local council by-election telling everyone that he had it “in the bag”, and then won the set by the toss of a coin.
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Post by johnloony on Jul 1, 2024 20:15:17 GMT
Obviously not old enough to remember when parties had big election rallies decades ago. Like Churchill, or Foot, or Victor Grayson etc
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right
Conservative
Posts: 18,382
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Clacton
Jul 1, 2024 20:59:39 GMT
via mobile
Post by right on Jul 1, 2024 20:59:39 GMT
If he is holding rallies in Birmingham it means that he and his key team aren’t canvassing in the constituency. Watling ought to be quietly pleased… Should he be? It might indicate that Farage and his team think Clacton is in the bag. It could be that Farage is more interested in having a grouping of MPs than being a lone MP
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,589
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Clacton
Jul 1, 2024 22:16:47 GMT
via mobile
Post by john07 on Jul 1, 2024 22:16:47 GMT
Obviously not old enough to remember when parties had big election rallies decades ago. Like Churchill, or Foot, or Victor Grayson etc Or Neil Kinnock in 1992?
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Post by greenchristian on Jul 1, 2024 23:25:14 GMT
How much difference do people think GOTV actually makes votes wise in a constituency in a GE? *guffaws* - Reform do not have a serious ground game apart from 'we agree with Nigel' sycophants marauding about the place. It's like Ernst Rohm's Sturmabteilung. The Sturmabteilung actually ran a reasonably effective ground game in the 1932 and 1933 German elections. Obviously it looked nothing like anything you'd see in any functioning democracy today, but they definitely did motivate people to vote for NSDAP candidates (or at least to not vote for anyone else). Should he be? It might indicate that Farage and his team think Clacton is in the bag. It could be that Farage is more interested in having a grouping of MPs than being a lone MP If they're anything like the UKIP or Brexit Party groups of MPs then a Reform group of MPs will be at each others' throats within a couple of months.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jul 2, 2024 1:35:15 GMT
FTFY (parody of course)
"The Conservative candidate going up against Herr Nigel Farage in Clacton on 4 July has described Reform UK rallies as “reminiscent of the big rallies at Nuremberg” where Adolf Hitler addressed supporters of the Nazi Party.
Watling, who has been the Deputy MP for the Essex seat (in the Reichstag) since 2017, said recent rallies are “chilling” and a “very un-British way of doing things”.
He told PoliticsHome: “I’m not ascribing any of these sort of things to Nigel Farage himself but the method, the process is just sort of reminiscent of the big rallies at Nuremberg with people standing to one side. It’s a personality cult that’s been created.” - ("Ein Reich. Ein Volk. Ein Farage?")
He added: “There may be no evil Volksgeist intent, but it feels wrong and bad."
Watling said there was “beautiful irony” that there has been "defacement" of his campaign posters by people "painting over my face and turning me into Adolf Hitler".
Der Fucker Farage told PoliticsHome: "Watling shows contempt for the thousands of decent people who turned up in Birmingham yesterday and those who come to my rallies in Clacton. They are decent, law abiding citizens. How dare he insult them like that."
On Sunday (Herr) Farage, who is expected to be elected to the Reichstag as an MP for the first time at Thursday's General Election, held a rally in front of a crowd of an estimated 5,000 Reform brownshirts supporters at the Birmingham NEC."
In all seriousness, building a big Zeppelintribune would bring much needed employment for many in the seat. I fully expect the Farage Jugend and the Einsatzgruppen to be out here in full force on Election Day.
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Clacton
Jul 2, 2024 6:49:48 GMT
via mobile
Post by LDCaerdydd on Jul 2, 2024 6:49:48 GMT
Obviously not old enough to remember when parties had big election rallies decades ago. Like Churchill, or Foot, or Victor Grayson etc Or Neil Kinnock in 1992? Or Corbyn.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jul 2, 2024 6:52:25 GMT
I don't see the harm in doing it. Anyway, building a Zeppelintribune (like the one used in Germany) would create jobs in an area like Jaywick where many struggle.
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right
Conservative
Posts: 18,382
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Post by right on Jul 2, 2024 7:37:48 GMT
Obviously not old enough to remember when parties had big election rallies decades ago. Like Churchill, or Foot, or Victor Grayson etc Or Neil Kinnock in 1992? That was just an excuse. Labour was too left wing to win and polls systematically underestimating the Tory vote mattered in a close result. Blair dealt with the first so well that the second didn't matter.
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Raddy
Non-Aligned
Posts: 58
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Post by Raddy on Jul 2, 2024 9:29:42 GMT
I have been intrigued during this election at the emphasis that is placed on the ground game, and knowing where your potential voters are.
I can fully understand why that might work in solid majority seats with a long single party tradition of one party dominating, but how does that work in marginal seats, or even seats with moderate majorities.
Over my life I have lived in the areas that are now within the constituencies of Stockton West and Stockton North. North once being solid Labour now with a rapidly changing demographic, and West going with the flow usually.
Over the years since 1970, the amount of times I have been actually canvassed on the doorstep in both constituencies can be counted on one hand, canvassing is very much shoving some rubbish through the letter box and running away. The south seat once SDP/LibDem under Wrigglesworth were barely visible when holding the seat and became invisible once they lost the seat. Labour and Conservative also do very little at all between elections, and little more than letterbox stuffing immediately prior to the election itself. So where is all this mysterious data we constantly hear about coming from, what is it, how is it collected, how up to date is it,and how accurate can it be as large numbers of people every year enter and leave the electorate through reaching 18, shuffling off their mortal coil, and inward and outward migration for work, uni etc. Add to that the reluctance of most people these days to state who they will vote for, the reality being that few people are entrenched supporters of any party, this idea of comprehensive lists of your likely voters being extant is not credible. I was at a large 50+ multi generational family gathering at the weekend of people who mostly live in the two constituencies across all demographics, and had the opportunity to speak to quite a lot of them about this. Boring I know! Most of them couldn't remember any direct doorstep canvassing in recent years, apart from the usual junk mail. Of those who had been canvassed, most of them did not commit any loyalty to any given party because they were, as is mostly the norm these days uncommitted. The only people who had been canvassed and committed their vote to canvassers on the the doorstep were 2 elderly women and one man who live on a North social housing estate and stated Labour because they always vote Labour, and an elderly lady living in an affluent area of West who always voted Conservative for the same reason.
Mostly anecdotal I know but I cannot accept that any party has anything remotely near a handle on where their potential supporters are for GOTV, other than on the most marginal level, this is compounded by the fact the parties have little or no organisation outside of their safe seat areas reinforces that view.
Is this an urban myth, or can anybody provide evidence for a list of this type in a given constituency today in relation to a 65,000 or so electorate.
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right
Conservative
Posts: 18,382
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Post by right on Jul 2, 2024 9:49:35 GMT
I have been intrigued during this election at the emphasis that is placed on the ground game, and knowing where your potential voters are. I can fully understand why that might work in solid majority seats with a long single party tradition of one party dominating, but how does that work in marginal seats, or even seats with moderate majorities. Over my life I have lived in the areas that are now within the constituencies of Stockton West and Stockton North. North once being solid Labour now with a rapidly changing demographic, and West going with the flow usually. Over the years since 1970, the amount of times I have been actually canvassed on the doorstep in both constituencies can be counted on one hand, canvassing is very much shoving some rubbish through the letter box and running away. The south seat once SDP/LibDem under Wrigglesworth were barely visible when holding the seat and became invisible once they lost the seat. Labour and Conservative also do very little at all between elections, and little more than letterbox stuffing immediately prior to the election itself. So where is all this mysterious data we constantly hear about coming from, what is it, how is it collected, how up to date is it,and how accurate can it be as large numbers of people every year enter and leave the electorate through reaching 18, shuffling off their mortal coil, and inward and outward migration for work, uni etc. Add to that the reluctance of most people these days to state who they will vote for, the reality being that few people are entrenched supporters of any party, this idea of comprehensive lists of your likely voters being extant is not credible. I was at a large 50+ multi generational family gathering at the weekend of people who mostly live in the two constituencies across all demographics, and had the opportunity to speak to quite a lot of them about this. Boring I know! Most of them couldn't remember any direct doorstep canvassing in recent years, apart from the usual junk mail. Of those who had been canvassed, most of them did not commit any loyalty to any given party because they were, as is mostly the norm these days uncommitted. The only people who had been canvassed and committed their vote to canvassers on the the doorstep were 2 elderly women and one man who live on a North social housing estate and stated Labour because they always vote Labour, and an elderly lady living in an affluent area of West who always voted Conservative for the same reason. Mostly anecdotal I know but I cannot accept that any party has anything remotely near a handle on where their potential supporters are for GOTV, other than on the most marginal level, this is compounded by the fact the parties have little or no organisation outside of their safe seat areas reinforces that view. Is this an urban myth, or can anybody provide evidence for a list of this type in a given constituency today in relation to a 65,000 or so electorate. It matters for small parties trying to win a small number of seats. Unlike the Greens, Reform can't fully admit this as otherwise their votes will come gushing back to the Tories as in 1997, 2010, 2015 and 2019.
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Raddy
Non-Aligned
Posts: 58
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Clacton
Jul 2, 2024 11:44:37 GMT
via mobile
Post by Raddy on Jul 2, 2024 11:44:37 GMT
I have been intrigued during this election at the emphasis that is placed on the ground game, and knowing where your potential voters are. I can fully understand why that might work in solid majority seats with a long single party tradition of one party dominating, but how does that work in marginal seats, or even seats with moderate majorities. Over my life I have lived in the areas that are now within the constituencies of Stockton West and Stockton North. North once being solid Labour now with a rapidly changing demographic, and West going with the flow usually. Over the years since 1970, the amount of times I have been actually canvassed on the doorstep in both constituencies can be counted on one hand, canvassing is very much shoving some rubbish through the letter box and running away. The south seat once SDP/LibDem under Wrigglesworth were barely visible when holding the seat and became invisible once they lost the seat. Labour and Conservative also do very little at all between elections, and little more than letterbox stuffing immediately prior to the election itself. So where is all this mysterious data we constantly hear about coming from, what is it, how is it collected, how up to date is it,and how accurate can it be as large numbers of people every year enter and leave the electorate through reaching 18, shuffling off their mortal coil, and inward and outward migration for work, uni etc. Add to that the reluctance of most people these days to state who they will vote for, the reality being that few people are entrenched supporters of any party, this idea of comprehensive lists of your likely voters being extant is not credible. I was at a large 50+ multi generational family gathering at the weekend of people who mostly live in the two constituencies across all demographics, and had the opportunity to speak to quite a lot of them about this. Boring I know! Most of them couldn't remember any direct doorstep canvassing in recent years, apart from the usual junk mail. Of those who had been canvassed, most of them did not commit any loyalty to any given party because they were, as is mostly the norm these days uncommitted. The only people who had been canvassed and committed their vote to canvassers on the the doorstep were 2 elderly women and one man who live on a North social housing estate and stated Labour because they always vote Labour, and an elderly lady living in an affluent area of West who always voted Conservative for the same reason. Mostly anecdotal I know but I cannot accept that any party has anything remotely near a handle on where their potential supporters are for GOTV, other than on the most marginal level, this is compounded by the fact the parties have little or no organisation outside of their safe seat areas reinforces that view. Is this an urban myth, or can anybody provide evidence for a list of this type in a given constituency today in relation to a 65,000 or so electorate. It matters for small parties trying to win a small number of seats. Unlike the Greens, Reform can't fully admit this as otherwise their votes will come gushing back to the Tories as in 1997, 2010, 2015 and 2019. Doesn't really answer my point, how does any party collect the data, even the big two don't have the logistics to canvass anything other than a tiny fraction of the electorate. The days of walking down a terraced street full of families that work in steel works,foundries and shipyards, and ticking every house off as Labour voters have long gone.
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