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Clacton
Jun 29, 2024 23:31:57 GMT
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Post by observer on Jun 29, 2024 23:31:57 GMT
If Reform get 21% nationally, 8% more than UKIP in 2015, then Farage will probably win over half the votes here, and Tice probably wins over 40% fo the vote in Boston & Skegness. I don't think Reform will get 21% of the vote nationally although I hope they do . Their ground game is appalling. I don't know how much that will cost them. At least 2% nationally I guess
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 29, 2024 23:36:11 GMT
If Reform get 21% nationally, 8% more than UKIP in 2015, then Farage will probably win over half the votes here, and Tice probably wins over 40% fo the vote in Boston & Skegness. I don't think Reform will get 21% of the vote nationally although I hope they do If Reform are pushing 1/5 fo the vote across the UK, then I think they will win the following: Clacton; Boston & Skegness, Castle Point, South Basildon & East Thurrock; Great Grimsby; Hornchurch & Upminster; Romford; Thurrock; East Thanet; Sittingbourne & Sheppey; Rochester & Strood; Isle of Thanet; Rother Valley; Rotherham*; Rawmarsh & Conisbrough; Tipton & Wednesbury; Stoke-on-Trent North. *no Conservative candidate.
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Clacton
Jun 29, 2024 23:43:50 GMT
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Post by observer on Jun 29, 2024 23:43:50 GMT
I don't think Reform will get 21% of the vote nationally although I hope they do If Reform are pushing 1/5 fo the vote across the UK, then I think they will win the following: Clacton; Boston & Skegness, Castle Point, South Basildon & East Thurrock; Great Grimsby; Hornchurch & Upminster; Romford; Thurrock; East Thanet; Sittingbourne & Sheppey; Rochester & Strood; Isle of Thanet; Rother Valley; Rotherham*; Rawmarsh & Conisbrough; Tipton & Wednesbury; Stoke-on-Trent North. *no Conservative candidate. You could be right. I hope so. What percentage of the vote nationally though do you think their poor ground game will cost them? I've said 2% but that was only a guess
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Clacton
Jun 30, 2024 5:41:51 GMT
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Post by Ron Swanson on Jun 30, 2024 5:41:51 GMT
If Reform are pushing 1/5 fo the vote across the UK, then I think they will win the following: Clacton; Boston & Skegness, Castle Point, South Basildon & East Thurrock; Great Grimsby; Hornchurch & Upminster; Romford; Thurrock; East Thanet; Sittingbourne & Sheppey; Rochester & Strood; Isle of Thanet; Rother Valley; Rotherham*; Rawmarsh & Conisbrough; Tipton & Wednesbury; Stoke-on-Trent North. *no Conservative candidate. You could be right. I hope so. What percentage of the vote nationally though do you think their poor ground game will cost them? I've said 2% but that was only a guess More in their target seats and less in ones that they’ve got no chance of winning. I don’t understand how, after having been fed so much money… and having been in the political arena so long, Farage hasn’t ever cracked it. Or is he just a phoney who hasn’t wanted to?
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Post by Deleted on Jun 30, 2024 5:45:25 GMT
You could be right. I hope so. What percentage of the vote nationally though do you think their poor ground game will cost them? I've said 2% but that was only a guess Or is he just a phoney who hasn’t wanted to? He didn't want responsibility for actual decision-making (IMHO) and that's why the European Parliament and spaffing away £200,000+ as MEP (IIRC) suited Farage.
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right
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Clacton
Jun 30, 2024 6:58:36 GMT
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Post by right on Jun 30, 2024 6:58:36 GMT
You could be right. I hope so. What percentage of the vote nationally though do you think their poor ground game will cost them? I've said 2% but that was only a guess More in their target seats and less in ones that they’ve got no chance of winning. I don’t understand how, after having been fed so much money… and having been in the political arena so long, Farage hasn’t ever cracked it. Or is he just a phoney who hasn’t wanted to? Farage had a decent ground game in a number of the later UKIP by-elections and in Peterborough, he beats the Tories twice and came close to Labour twice. His ground game wasn't as good as Labour's, but Labour's ground game is good. The issue is why the nationwide ground game is so bad, and I think there's a reasonable explanation. In the UKIP days many UKIP branches just didn't want to change, although some that did managed OK results such as Thurrock and Hartlepool. But generally the personality types were stuck in the mud and Farage was right that the very decentralised UKIP structure militated in their favour. Farage went the other way, but far too far. You need some local initiative and his system kills that off during peacetime. Farage hasn't found the balance that he knows the Lib Dems and Greens have.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jun 30, 2024 8:30:23 GMT
Was leafleting in the neighbouring constituency yesterday and came across a few Reform leaflets for Clacton hanging out of doors, so I think the same organisational issues are probably at play.
It's unlikely to make too much of a difference here (because even when they were polling OK, the Clacton Tories didn't exactly have a brilliant doorstep organisation) but might be relevant elsewhere.
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Ports
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Clacton
Jun 30, 2024 8:38:52 GMT
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Post by Ports on Jun 30, 2024 8:38:52 GMT
It's interesting that you haven't seen (m)any big Conservative figures in seats that are solely nominally Reform targets - they might not be particular assets but if that means anything it must be partly because they know their bread is buttered on the Labour/Liberal Democrat side in terms of seats, even if less so in terms of votes.
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right
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Clacton
Jun 30, 2024 9:20:06 GMT
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Post by right on Jun 30, 2024 9:20:06 GMT
It's interesting that you haven't seen (m)any big Conservative figures in seats that are solely nominally Reform targets - they might not be particular assets but if that means anything it must be partly because they know their bread is buttered on the Labour/Liberal Democrat side in terms of seats, even if less so in terms of votes. They may also be concentrating much more on their own patches
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Post by AlltheGoodUsernamesAreTaken on Jun 30, 2024 13:18:34 GMT
More in their target seats and less in ones that they’ve got no chance of winning. I don’t understand how, after having been fed so much money… and having been in the political arena so long, Farage hasn’t ever cracked it. Or is he just a phoney who hasn’t wanted to? Farage had a decent ground game in a number of the later UKIP by-elections and in Peterborough, he beats the Tories twice and came close to Labour twice. His ground game wasn't as good as Labour's, but Labour's ground game is good. The issue is why the nationwide ground game is so bad, and I think there's a reasonable explanation. In the UKIP days many UKIP branches just didn't want to change, although some that did managed OK results such as Thurrock and Hartlepool. But generally the personality types were stuck in the mud and Farage was right that the very decentralised UKIP structure militated in their favour. Farage went the other way, but far too far. You need some local initiative and his system kills that off during peacetime. Farage hasn't found the balance that he knows the Lib Dems and Greens have. Reform like UKIP don't have years of canvassing data to figure out where their vote is so on election day their campaign fails in the Get Out The Vote - instead they hang around high streets and train stations handing out leaflets instead of knocking on doors and telephoning to GOTV.
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right
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Clacton
Jun 30, 2024 16:25:25 GMT
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Post by right on Jun 30, 2024 16:25:25 GMT
Farage had a decent ground game in a number of the later UKIP by-elections and in Peterborough, he beats the Tories twice and came close to Labour twice. His ground game wasn't as good as Labour's, but Labour's ground game is good. The issue is why the nationwide ground game is so bad, and I think there's a reasonable explanation. In the UKIP days many UKIP branches just didn't want to change, although some that did managed OK results such as Thurrock and Hartlepool. But generally the personality types were stuck in the mud and Farage was right that the very decentralised UKIP structure militated in their favour. Farage went the other way, but far too far. You need some local initiative and his system kills that off during peacetime. Farage hasn't found the balance that he knows the Lib Dems and Greens have. Reform like UKIP don't have years of canvassing data to figure out where their vote is so on election day their campaign fails in the Get Out The Vote - instead they hang around high streets and train stations handing out leaflets instead of knocking on doors and telephoning to GOTV. There were some UKIP branches that had graduated from this. But not many and they didn't like being told what to do, and rather distrusted defectors from established parties who tried. The Reform effort I'm seeing is mostly leafletting and posters, which are good - but then I'm not in one of the rare Reform targets.
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Post by John Chanin on Jun 30, 2024 16:59:46 GMT
Farage had a decent ground game in a number of the later UKIP by-elections and in Peterborough, he beats the Tories twice and came close to Labour twice. His ground game wasn't as good as Labour's, but Labour's ground game is good. The issue is why the nationwide ground game is so bad, and I think there's a reasonable explanation. In the UKIP days many UKIP branches just didn't want to change, although some that did managed OK results such as Thurrock and Hartlepool. But generally the personality types were stuck in the mud and Farage was right that the very decentralised UKIP structure militated in their favour. Farage went the other way, but far too far. You need some local initiative and his system kills that off during peacetime. Farage hasn't found the balance that he knows the Lib Dems and Greens have. Reform like UKIP don't have years of canvassing data to figure out where their vote is so on election day their campaign fails in the Get Out The Vote - instead they hang around high streets and train stations handing out leaflets instead of knocking on doors and telephoning to GOTV. While true, the GOTV activity is only marginal at General Elections, when those inclined to vote don't need persuading. It's at local elections where it makes a difference.
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right
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Clacton
Jun 30, 2024 18:01:29 GMT
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Post by right on Jun 30, 2024 18:01:29 GMT
Reform like UKIP don't have years of canvassing data to figure out where their vote is so on election day their campaign fails in the Get Out The Vote - instead they hang around high streets and train stations handing out leaflets instead of knocking on doors and telephoning to GOTV. While true, the GOTV activity is only marginal at General Elections, when those inclined to vote don't need persuading. It's at local elections where it makes a difference. How much difference do people think GOTV actually makes votes wise in a constituency in a GE?
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Post by AlltheGoodUsernamesAreTaken on Jun 30, 2024 18:18:27 GMT
While true, the GOTV activity is only marginal at General Elections, when those inclined to vote don't need persuading. It's at local elections where it makes a difference. How much difference do people think GOTV actually makes votes wise in a constituency in a GE? Depends how good your tellers are in collecting polling card numbers and how good your canvassing return were. A well run campaign may give a general idea on whose voters are going out to vote and where you need so send door knockers or telephoning to GOTV. A big failing in most campaigns I have been involved in was the complete lack of any postal voting strategy - the number of wards where the vote on the day showed a Conservative win but a Labour or LibDem gain once the postal votes were counted - with accusations of foul play and unproven nefarious activity - when the simple truth was the Labour and LibDem postal voting strategy was miles ahead of the lacklustre Conservative non effort. I doubt things have improved much.
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Post by eastmidlandsright on Jun 30, 2024 20:03:28 GMT
Reform like UKIP don't have years of canvassing data to figure out where their vote is so on election day their campaign fails in the Get Out The Vote - instead they hang around high streets and train stations handing out leaflets instead of knocking on doors and telephoning to GOTV. While true, the GOTV activity is only marginal at General Elections, when those inclined to vote don't need persuading. It's at local elections where it makes a difference. Especially when you have an enthusiastic base who really want to get out and vote for you. I also think there is a reasonable case to be made that unless you have the resources for a proper canvassing and GOTV campaign you are better off not bothering and should instead use you limited resources on activities that can have an impact.
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Sg1
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Clacton
Jun 30, 2024 22:36:08 GMT
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Post by Sg1 on Jun 30, 2024 22:36:08 GMT
While true, the GOTV activity is only marginal at General Elections, when those inclined to vote don't need persuading. It's at local elections where it makes a difference. How much difference do people think GOTV actually makes votes wise in a constituency in a GE? Depends on the election and how motivated your voters are. It made all the difference in 2015 in my own seat, and 2017 was hard work to get voters out. In 2019 our voters were so motivated we felt like a third wheel all day (beyond the occasional lift to the polling station). It was the only election I've taken part in so far where almost every pledge told us they already voted and it was for us. This year, I suspect that a strong GOTV operation might be crucial to saving marginal Conservative seats
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Post by Deleted on Jul 1, 2024 1:52:22 GMT
While true, the GOTV activity is only marginal at General Elections, when those inclined to vote don't need persuading. It's at local elections where it makes a difference. How much difference do people think GOTV actually makes votes wise in a constituency in a GE? *guffaws* - Reform do not have a serious ground game apart from 'we agree with Nigel' sycophants marauding about the place. It's like Ernst Rohm's Sturmabteilung.
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Clacton
Jul 1, 2024 6:23:48 GMT
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Post by norflondon on Jul 1, 2024 6:23:48 GMT
LePens National Rally's stunning success will probably help add legitimacy to Farages march to power, rather than it being a vote loser.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 1, 2024 6:30:57 GMT
LePens National Rally's stunning success will probably help add legitimacy to Farages march to power, rather than it being a vote loser. There is probably something in that. Trump before the 2016 vote was calling his candidacy and surge Brexit +++. To be fair, this seat is closer to Europe than many. Geert Wilders (this seat is closer than many are to the Netherlands) or Eric Zemmour would do well here, along with AfD and Der Linke probably, and ofc RN. As I said, just wait for the National Socialist Determinedly Anti-ECHR Party (NSDAP) to form. I wonder if Hugo Boss makes Farage's suits and I'm sure he has a Merc. Would he replace National Service with a Farage youth wing?
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right
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Clacton
Jul 1, 2024 6:44:30 GMT
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Post by right on Jul 1, 2024 6:44:30 GMT
LePens National Rally's stunning success will probably help add legitimacy to Farages march to power, rather than it being a vote loser. While watching the football yesterday someone asked whether any French election results were declared. It was a lull in the match, and a GE naturally gets people to pay more attention to politics than usual, but still...
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