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Post by IceAgeComing on Jun 3, 2024 16:11:41 GMT
It would be really funny if he split the vote just enough to Labour in I've looked at a few models and past results - its highly unlikely but if Labour get into the high 20%s-low 30%s (they got 25% in both 2010 and 2017; I assume considering other demographics they could improve on that) AND if the Reform/Tory vote split down the middle at the right level they could theoretically sneak through the middle. Its a 1% chance of happening like; but it would be by default the funniest result of the election if it happened |
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Post by finsobruce on Jun 3, 2024 16:12:38 GMT
Nigel Farage has failed in seven previous attempts to be elected as an MP, having contested these elections … 1994 Eastleigh byelection (Votes 952, vote share 1.7%, 4th) 1997 Salisbury (3,332, 5.7%, 4th) 2001 Bexhill and Battle (3,474, 7.8%, 4th) 2005 South Thanet (2,079, 5%, 4th) 2006 Bromley and Chislehurst byelection (2,307, 8%, 3rd - Rachel Reeves was 4th) 2010 Buckingham (8,410, 17.4%, 3rd - running against speaker John Bercow. 2nd was John Stevens representing the Buckinghamshire Campaign for Democracy) 2015 South Thanet (16,026, 32.4%, 2nd) I don't know how many times we have to go through this, but his primary aim has never been to be elected as an MP. Although it is worth noticing that his vote goes up from 1.7% to 32.4% from first to last contest.
Maybe this time will be different, but I suspect he is extremely relaxed about not winning. His considerable influence on British politics has all been from outside parliament.
And if he does get 'accidentally' elected, he'll have a Plan B which i predict would involve considerable disruption of parliament, and undermining of the Conservative party.
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Jun 3, 2024 16:14:10 GMT
Nigel Farage has failed in seven previous attempts to be elected as an MP, having contested these elections … 1994 Eastleigh byelection (Votes 952, vote share 1.7%, 4th) 1997 Salisbury (3,332, 5.7%, 4th) 2001 Bexhill and Battle (3,474, 7.8%, 4th) 2005 South Thanet (2,079, 5%, 4th) 2006 Bromley and Chislehurst byelection (2,307, 8%, 3rd - Rachel Reeves was 4th) 2010 Buckingham (8,410, 17.4%, 3rd - running against speaker John Bercow. 2nd was John Stevens representing the Buckinghamshire Campaign for Democracy) 2015 South Thanet (16,026, 32.4%, 2nd) I don't know how many times we have to go through this, but his primary aim has never been to be elected as an MP. Although it is worth noticing that his vote goes up from 1.7% to 32.4% from first to last contest.
Maybe this time will be different, but I suspect he is extremely relaxed about not winning. His considerable influence on British politics has all been from outside parliament.
And if he does get 'accidentally' elected, he'll have a Plan B which i predict would involve considerable disruption of parliament, and undermining of the Conservative party.
He was saying yesterday that he wants to "take over" the Conservatives.' not just undermine them. |
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Post by finsobruce on Jun 3, 2024 16:16:28 GMT
I don't know how many times we have to go through this, but his primary aim has never been to be elected as an MP. Although it is worth noticing that his vote goes up from 1.7% to 32.4% from first to last contest.
Maybe this time will be different, but I suspect he is extremely relaxed about not winning. His considerable influence on British politics has all been from outside parliament.
And if he does get 'accidentally' elected, he'll have a Plan B which i predict would involve considerable disruption of parliament, and undermining of the Conservative party.
He was saying yesterday that he wants to "take over" the Conservatives.' not just undermine them. One thing at a time. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 3, 2024 16:16:33 GMT
Nigel Farage has failed in seven previous attempts to be elected as an MP, having contested these elections … 1994 Eastleigh byelection (Votes 952, vote share 1.7%, 4th) 1997 Salisbury (3,332, 5.7%, 4th) 2001 Bexhill and Battle (3,474, 7.8%, 4th) 2005 South Thanet (2,079, 5%, 4th) 2006 Bromley and Chislehurst byelection (2,307, 8%, 3rd - Rachel Reeves was 4th) 2010 Buckingham (8,410, 17.4%, 3rd - running against speaker John Bercow. 2nd was John Stevens representing the Buckinghamshire Campaign for Democracy) 2015 South Thanet (16,026, 32.4%, 2nd) I don't know how many times we have to go through this, but his primary aim has never been to be elected as an MP. Although it is worth noticing that his vote goes up from 1.7% to 32.4% from first to last contest.
Maybe this time will be different, but I suspect he is extremely relaxed about not winning. His considerable influence on British politics has all been from outside parliament. And if he does get 'accidentally' elected, he'll have a Plan B which i predict would involve considerable disruption of parliament, and undermining of the Conservative party.
Or maybe he could resign immediately and say his 'girlfriend' wouldn't let him be an MP.. |
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Post by timmullen on Jun 3, 2024 16:17:34 GMT
What happened to getting Trump reelected and saving the free world?
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Post by finsobruce on Jun 3, 2024 16:20:00 GMT
What happened to getting Trump reelected and saving the free world? I suspect that is still part of his portfolio of interests. |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 3, 2024 16:20:04 GMT
Prediction: Farage will win this seat, defect to the Tories and succeed Sunak as Tory leader.
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Jun 3, 2024 16:20:58 GMT
What happened to getting Trump reelected and saving the free world? Trump was found guilty by a jury of 34 counts and suddenly England wasn't so parochial any more. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 3, 2024 16:21:03 GMT
It would be really funny if he split the vote just enough to Labour in I've looked at a few models and past results - its highly unlikely but if Labour get into the high 20%s-low 30%s (they got 25% in both 2010 and 2017; I assume considering other demographics they could improve on that) AND if the Reform/Tory vote split down the middle at the right level they could theoretically sneak through the middle. Its a 1% chance of happening like; but it would be by default the funniest result of the election if it happened This thread from almost ten years ago makes amusing reading vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/1156/parliamentary-defections?page=6. Same absurd fantasies about how UKIP were going to split the 'right wing' vote and allow Labour through the middle. How did that work out for you? How did it work out for Labour in 2015 across the UK? |
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Jun 3, 2024 16:22:25 GMT
He was saying yesterday that he wants to "take over" the Conservatives.' not just undermine them. One thing at a time. And I know what you mean about him being more of a chaos agent than a genuine candidate. This time I'm not so certain. I think this is a serious attempt to win. He wants in to the only gentleman's club here's not yet infiltrated. |
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Jun 3, 2024 16:23:14 GMT
Prediction: Farage will win this seat, defect to the Tories and succeed Sunak as Tory leader. That would fit his ambition to "take over" the Conservatives. |
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Post by finsobruce on Jun 3, 2024 16:24:15 GMT
And I know what you mean about him being more of a chaos agent than a genuine candidate. This time I'm not so certain. I think this is a serious attempt to win. He wants in to the only gentleman's club here's not yet infiltrated. But either will suit him. |
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Post by timmullen on Jun 3, 2024 16:25:45 GMT
What happened to getting Trump reelected and saving the free world? I suspect that is still part of his portfolio of interests. But he said he couldn’t stand in a July election here because he was too busy campaigning in the US… |
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Post by finsobruce on Jun 3, 2024 16:27:53 GMT
I suspect that is still part of his portfolio of interests. But he said he couldn’t stand in a July election here because he was too busy campaigning in the US… I'll let you into a secret Tim. He probably had his fingers crossed behind his back. |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 3, 2024 16:28:04 GMT
I wonder if the likes of Pete Whitehead and others would vote for the Tories if Farage took over. |
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Jun 3, 2024 16:28:57 GMT
Nigel Farage has failed in seven previous attempts to be elected as an MP, having contested these elections … 1994 Eastleigh byelection (Votes 952, vote share 1.7%, 4th) 1997 Salisbury (3,332, 5.7%, 4th) 2001 Bexhill and Battle (3,474, 7.8%, 4th) 2005 South Thanet (2,079, 5%, 4th) 2006 Bromley and Chislehurst byelection (2,307, 8%, 3rd - Rachel Reeves was 4th) 2010 Buckingham (8,410, 17.4%, 3rd - running against speaker John Bercow. 2nd was John Stevens representing the Buckinghamshire Campaign for Democracy) 2015 South Thanet (16,026, 32.4%, 2nd) I don't know how many times we have to go through this, but his primary aim has never been to be elected as an MP. Although it is worth noticing that his vote goes up from 1.7% to 32.4% from first to last contest.
Maybe this time will be different, but I suspect he is extremely relaxed about not winning. His considerable influence on British politics has all been from outside parliament.
And if he does get 'accidentally' elected, he'll have a Plan B which i predict would involve considerable disruption of parliament, and undermining of the Conservative party.
Also, as he says, the one time he gave it a real shot he was beaten by unfair and illegal tactics. |
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Jun 3, 2024 16:30:16 GMT
I don't know how many times we have to go through this, but his primary aim has never been to be elected as an MP. Although it is worth noticing that his vote goes up from 1.7% to 32.4% from first to last contest.
Maybe this time will be different, but I suspect he is extremely relaxed about not winning. His considerable influence on British politics has all been from outside parliament.
And if he does get 'accidentally' elected, he'll have a Plan B which i predict would involve considerable disruption of parliament, and undermining of the Conservative party.
Also, as he says, the one time he gave it a real shot he was beaten by unfair and illegal tactics. Nothing unfair, nothing illegal. He lost. It's the paranoia of the right wing that thinks all losses must be "election interference". |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 3, 2024 16:32:00 GMT
Also, as he says, the one time he gave it a real shot he was beaten by unfair and illegal tactics. Nothing unfair, nothing illegal. He lost. It's the paranoia of the right wing that thinks all losses must be "election interference". Ironic since the voter ID laws may have cost the Tories overall control of Slough of all places in 2023. |
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Clacton
Jun 3, 2024 16:32:04 GMT
via mobile
Post by greenhert on Jun 3, 2024 16:32:04 GMT
It would be really funny if he split the vote just enough to Labour in This is very similar to what happened in Hartlepool in 2015 and 2019, actually, except that Labour was defending the seat. |
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