stb12
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Post by stb12 on Mar 13, 2024 21:06:47 GMT
Basildon and Billericay
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Post by John Chanin on Mar 16, 2024 8:26:03 GMT
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 29, 2024 21:29:24 GMT
| | Con | Lab | Lib/LD |
| | | | | | | | | | 1974 | 30.4% | 46.0% | 23.6% | | | | 1974 | 31.9% | 48.6% | 18.7% | | | | 1979 | 46.8% | 42.2% | 11.0% | | | | 1983 | 47.5% | 26.2% | 26.3% | | | | 1987 | 50.7% | 27.7% | 21.5% | | | | 1992 | 51.8% | 30.1% | 18.0% | | |
| | Con | Lab | LD | Ref/UKIP | NF/BNP | Grn |
| | | | | | | | | | | 1997 | 34.4% | 45.9% | 13.7% | 1.9% | | | | | 2001 | 40.2% | 44.4% | 12.2% | 2.7% | | | | | 2005 | 44.1% | 35.6% | 12.8% | 2.5% | 3.3% | | | | 2010 | 51.3% | 24.6% | 15.3% | 4.0% | 4.8% | | | | 2015 | 51.3% | 24.6% | 3.7% | 20.3% | | | | | 2017 | 59.6% | 32.3% | 3.3% | 4.6% | | | | | 2019 | 65.9% | 21.6% | 8.4% | | | 3.0% | |
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Post by hempie on Jun 4, 2024 13:41:18 GMT
Christopher Bateman is standing for the British Democrats
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 5, 2024 8:00:41 GMT
Last chance saloon for Richard Holden
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right
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Post by right on Jun 5, 2024 14:45:03 GMT
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 5, 2024 18:15:28 GMT
.. which, along with Reform, could split the opposition to Labour. I heard Radio 4 refer to this as a bellwether earlier, although it is only that in the narrow sense that it is a bellwether for how England votes, since it went to the Tories in 2005 based on Pete Whitehead 's number crunching. This could be the (notionally) safest seat to fall, and like Chris Patten in Bath in 1992, Richard Holden will likely not be helped in his own seat by having to campaign around the country. |
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Post by John Chanin on Jun 5, 2024 18:24:14 GMT
The boundary change does help Labour a bit, and Basildon is notoriously volatile, but Billericay is dyed in the wool Conservative commuterland, and not the demographic most favourable to Reform. I really can't see Labour winning here, even if the local Conservatives are pissed at having a well connected chicken runner parchuted in. At least they now know how many Labour constituency parties feel.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 5, 2024 20:06:04 GMT
Top banter
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Post by greenhert on Jun 5, 2024 20:25:25 GMT
I am pretty sure Guido's omission of only the first "a" in the word bastard in that article was intentional. |
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
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Post by john07 on Jun 5, 2024 20:39:02 GMT
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Jun 6, 2024 0:56:05 GMT
The boundary change does help Labour a bit, and Basildon is notoriously volatile, but Billericay is dyed in the wool Conservative commuterland, and not the demographic most favourable to Reform. I really can't see Labour winning here, even if the local Conservatives are pissed at having a well connected chicken runner parchuted in. At least they now know how many Labour constituency parties feel. Except Billericay is voting for localists in local elections, now. |
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Post by John Chanin on Jun 6, 2024 5:56:00 GMT
The boundary change does help Labour a bit, and Basildon is notoriously volatile, but Billericay is dyed in the wool Conservative commuterland, and not the demographic most favourable to Reform. I really can't see Labour winning here, even if the local Conservatives are pissed at having a well connected chicken runner parchuted in. At least they now know how many Labour constituency parties feel. Except Billericay is voting for localists in local elections, now. Not so. The Conservatives won all 4 Billericay wards at the all out 2024 elections. The independents are in south Basildon and Wickford, mostly not in this constituency. |
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right
Conservative
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Post by right on Jun 6, 2024 7:21:39 GMT
Billericay in 1997 almost dethroned Theresa Gorman, so commuterland can vote against the official Tory candidate
Also the selection and defence of Harvey Proctor as well as the selection of Gorman shows that there was an independent streak in the Association
All in full knowledge that the boundaries and circumstances are different a quarter century later
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batman
Labour
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Post by batman on Jun 6, 2024 7:32:31 GMT
well plenty of commuterland is voting against the Tories at the moment. Whether it applies to Essex commuterland is another matter.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 6, 2024 7:34:23 GMT
I wonder if white flight from London has helped bolster the Tory position here, nearly 66% in a seat that was notionally Labour in 2001!
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right
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Post by right on Jun 6, 2024 7:34:24 GMT
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right
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Post by right on Jun 6, 2024 7:39:25 GMT
I had a quick look through the archives for this seat and all I had for all three General Elections was the Statement of Persons Nominated with a bit in 2015 about the Lib Dem being from Westminster. I suspect it would have been like that all the way back to 2001.
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Post by John Chanin on Jun 6, 2024 8:21:17 GMT
Why have you linked to the old almanac entry, when there is already a link to the updated almanac entry on this thread? |
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right
Conservative
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Post by right on Jun 6, 2024 8:22:57 GMT
Why have you linked to the old almanac entry, when there is already a link to the updated almanac entry on this thread? Honest mistake, sorry |
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